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Million-Dollar Contrarian Portfolio

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388 Comments
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MindBender
Guest
MindBender
June 4, 2010 4:24 pm

Terrible performance, plain and simply described accurately.
Claus would make a better schnitzel salesman than he does a portfolio manager. This guy is just plain clueless and his timing ability rates up there with BP’s oil well spill control ability.

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RonH
Guest
RonH
June 7, 2010 2:21 pm

Unfortunately, I subscribed to Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio in March 2009. The recommended investments went south immediately to where I stopped following Claus’ recommendations during the summer. I cancelled my subscription in the fall and received back a portion of my subscription fee. It was an expensive lesson that I learned having just taken an early retirement package from my employer and investing some into this service. I regret following an (?) experts (?) advise due to my always growing my portfolio every year without their costly recommendations. Like all investing, it is best to make investments that you do your due diligence on before following unproven investors such as, Claus. I paid and have learned a lesson that I hope not to repeat.

All I have seen is what has been stated earlier. This organization is self promoting and touching on peoples fears. They do not justify their products by providing their investment results but playing the fear card. They do not post or respond to the blogs they offer on the site and some of the subscribers would have been much better investors than Claus will ever be. Their recommendations actually made profits for those that followed their advise. I am glad that Claus had most of the portfolios in T-Bills as I fear what those portfolios would look like if he would have recommended more investments then his typical poor recommendations every couple of months. Of course, it would have been better invested in a market that went up 50+% during my misguided adventure into Weiss Investments.

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Elmer Fundd
Guest
Elmer Fundd
June 11, 2010 4:42 am

On 9th June, Claus had written an article I read on another site – Another warning bell for the stock market – warning of a returning bear market. Fool that I was I didn’t do the opposite to his advice.

Dow up 270 points since I read the article……..

Claus’ timing is perfect if inverse?

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Kevin M.
Guest
Kevin M.
July 23, 2010 10:01 am

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Before the
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Release No. 62075 / May 11, 2010
Administrative Proceeding File No. 3-12341
:
In the Matter of
:
:
ORDER APPROVING
WEISS RESEARCH, INC.,
:
APPLICATION OF DISTRIBUTION
MARTIN WEISS, AND
:
ADMINISTRATOR FOR
LAWRENCE EDELSON
:
FEES AND EXPENSES AND
:
DIRECTING DISBURSEMENT
Respondents.
:
OF FAIR FUND
:
____________________________________:
On June 22, 2006, the Commission instituted settled administrative proceedings against Weiss Research, Inc., Martin Weiss, and Lawrence Edelson (collectively, “Respondents”) for violations of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 in connection with their operation of an unregistered investment adviser and the production and distribution of materially false and misleading marketing materials. See Order Instituting Public Administrative and Cease-and-Desist Proceedings, Making Findings, and Imposing Remedial Sanctions and a Cease-and-Desist Order Pursuant to Sections 203(e), 203(f), and 203(k) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, Admin. Proc. File No. 3-12341 (Investment Advisers Act Rel. No. 2525) (June 22, 2006) (“Order”). Among other things, the Commission ordered the Respondents to pay a total of $2,166,142 in disgorgement, prejudgment interest, and penalties, and authorized the creation of a Fair Fund to distribute this money to the harmed investors.
On July 5, 2007, the Commission published a notice of the Distribution Plan (“Plan”) proposed by the Division of Enforcement in connection with this proceeding (Securities Exchange Act Rel. No. 56011). No comments were received. On August 23, 2007, the Commission approved the Plan. Order Approving Distribution Plan, Admin. Proc. File No. 312341 (Securities Exchange Act Rel. No. 56310). On April 22, 2009, the Commission issued an order authorizing the distribution of $1,462,208 to harmed investors in accordance with the Plan. Order Directing Disbursement of Fair Fund, Admin Proc. File No. 3-12341 (Securities Exchange Act Re. No. 59813).
The Administrator has submitted detailed invoices for his fees and expenses incurred during the quarters ended September 30, 2009, December 31, 2009, and March 31, 2010. The Commission staff, having reviewed the invoices, finds the total fees and expenses of $13,013.50 to be reasonable and in accordance with the Distribution Plan. The Commission staff has requested that the Commission authorize payment of the Administrator’s fees and expenses in the amount of $13,013.50 from the Fair Fund.
The Administrator has also submitted a validated letter identifying one remaining payee with a claim for $4,315.50. The Plan provides that the Commission will arrange for distribution of the Fair Fund when the Commission receives and accepts from the Administrator a validated list of payees with the identification information required to make the distribution. The Administrator’s validated letter has been received and accepted.
Accordingly, IT IS HEREBY ORDERED, pursuant to Rule 1105(d) of the Commission’s Rules on Fair Fund and Disgorgement Plans, 17 C.F. R. § 201.1105(d), that the Administrator’s current fees and expenses in the amount of $13,013.50 be paid from the Fair Fund.
IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that the Administrator distribute $4,315.50 to the payee in the validated letter, as provided for in the Plan.
By the Commission.
Elizabeth M. Murphy Secretary

I suspect that the SEC would NOT consider the MDCP and Claus’ “48 Hour Head Start” alerts just a subscription service, nor would any competent legal service consider your introduction of new and unilateral changes to the ‘Terms and Conditions’ as being able to withstand challenge let alone prevail, in an appropriate venue. In light of the SEC’s 2006 determination concerning Weiss et al. [Weiss], subsequent actions and marketing materials pertaining to the MDCP’s methodology and goals along with representations made by Weiss, constitutes in my professional opinion, a violation in both action and spirit of the SEC’s findings and subsequent orders.
Others may choose to just walk away the wiser and poorer.
I however fully expect representations made by Weiss, Vogt, The MCP Team as well as the MDCP itself, as stated in MDCP marketing materials circa Feb. 2009 to be fulfilled in the manner and time frame so stipulated in said marketing materials.
The link below stands as proof, to date, of results that can and will be used [if necessary] to show the stark contrast between claims and actual performance.

http://www.contrarianportfolio.com/portfolio/ClosedPositions.asp

Please govern yourself accordingly. Censorship is a serious matter and the censor must have a full legal understanding of when and if its use is both appropriate and legal.

http://www.weissresearchissues.com/trading-history

http://weissgroup.com/research/performance.html

Who is Claus Vogt?:
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/topic/experts/claus-vogt/claus-vogts-page/

http://www.moneyandmarkets.co.uk/

http://www.moneyandmarkets.co.uk/Full%20Trading%20History.pdf

Martin, please familiarize yourself with the US Bill of Rights, Amendment 1.

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Daniel Victor
Irregular
Daniel Victor
October 31, 2010 9:04 am

OK,it’s too expensive – hence one star value for money.Claus Vogt basically runs the portfolio and answers the questions,and he is based in Germany.He strikes me as honest,and is consistent in what he says.
Whilst this service is bearish,not all of the Weiss organization is bearish.Claus is probably the most bearish,followed by Mike Larsson,who edits the conservative Safe Money report [which is a lot cheaper].Martin is fairly bearish,and these three are on the ‘money and markets’ side of the organization.The guys on the ‘uncommon wisdom’ side of it tend to be a lot more bullish about the market areas they cover [Larry Edelsson is sort of in between].
The biggest problem I have with the Weiss guys generally,and this service in particular,is their widespread use of ETFs – especially short ETFs.ETFs aim to mimic the up or down moves in their respective markets over one day – 24 hours.Maybe some have longer time horizons -if so,please correct me,someone.Anyhow,while long ETFs can sometimes accomplish this by holding assets – although the would have to buy and sell these quite a lot – short ETFs can only do it by repeated hedging.
The cheapest way to hedge a down move in the S and P,or whatever,is a short futures contract.These are pretty liquid,and you can take a position as far out as nine months,and roll it over.Problem is,you need the self-discipline not to take too big a position,to put aside adequate margin,and to close out your position at a sensible time.Most people don;t have that.
With ETFs,you can just buy them.Trouble is,while a lot of them are liquid,the ETFs themselves accumulate costs over time with all the hedging they have to do.So they won’t accurately mimic the markets they cover over a period of months,and they do not claim to do that.
If you are bearish of markets,and you try using ETFs to exploit down-moves,you have to have REALLY good timing.Sideways markets can hurt you,and money left in cash yields less than inflation [as,currently,do some TIPSs at recent prices ! ] By the time you’ve paid your subscription to this service,you’re even worse off…

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j. mac
Member
j. mac
October 31, 2010 2:02 pm

I should have known better. Martin has been predicting a falling sky for so long, he is stuck on that subject. Eventually he may be right, but in the meantime most folks will be broke, following his advise. It reminds me of the fellow in the late 80’s and early 90’s predicting “The Upward Spike “, and hyper inflation interesting but wrong. I was a charter member to the Million Dollar contrarian Portfolio The only thing positive I can say about that is that I got in at a discounted price, so I cut my lose in half. THIS LETTER IS A 4 STAR LOSER.

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Goldbug
Guest
Goldbug
November 2, 2010 8:35 am

I keep kicking myself for having been a member of this horrible service and keep thinking of what I should have bought with the money I lost with Claus’ losing picks. I have lost $6,000 with MCP alone but because Claus was so bearish on the market at 6000, I have lost money with other bearish services I have been a part of as well. Thanks a lot Claus for reinforcing and compounding my losses with your false predictions. I have lost $20,000 altogether on bearish services who acted like Chicken Little at 6000 back in March 2009. Compounding the bearish sentiment was also the Red Flag Insider by Andrew Gordon of Investor’s Daily Edge and another one of Weiss’ services the ETF Crisis Trader by Mike Larson.
The best traders are the ones that can change sentiment whenever the market sentiment changes, not the perma bears or perma bulls. The one I lost the least with is Larry Edelson who tells it like it is. I don’t trust Tony Sagami because he is a China perma-bull and I didn’t stick around long enough to see how he thinks when China’s economy tanks. I cancelled all my Weiss subscriptions and I am licking my wounds. Fortunately, I bought metals but am kicking myself for not buying more instead of investing with these jokesters.

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alandvw
Guest
alandvw
November 4, 2010 6:51 pm

Claus is stunning in his inverse timing. He issues a warning of a megatop on 11/3 encouraging people to sell or go short. The next day (11/4) we see an epic rally with many sectors breaking out into new highs (see finance).

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Goldbug
Guest
Goldbug
November 19, 2010 11:32 am

Anything from Weiss is like a rear view mirror. If you drive and keep looking at it you’ll crash. You would save $3000 just looking at past performances and trading stocks that did well than to use this or any of Weiss services. The only thing that they have going for them is their customer service. Even their very own Larry Edelson disagrees with them.

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Henry
Member
Henry
November 27, 2010 8:08 pm

I invested $100,000. Lost $6,700.00 + the subscription cost, about $1,400.00. I must say something good about Martin: he is a good salesman … nothing more … nothing less. Henry

joe
joe
December 22, 2010 10:35 am

poor results! not enough profits in nine months to pay annual fee.

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Mark Sparky
Guest
Mark Sparky
March 5, 2011 4:34 pm

I subscribed in 2009 because of the following quote, from their website (http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/services/trading-services/million-dollar-contrarian-portfolio):

“Investments are selected by Claus Vogt, editor of the German edition of Safe Money Report and a disciplined professional with real-world experience making impressive profits in virtually every conceivable market and investing climate.”

Two years later, my results show that Claus was not able to make an impressive profit in the 2009 and 2010 investing climate. Apparently, a bear market rally is not one of the conceivable markets in which impressive profits can be made.

I suspect if I had a pint with Claus he would admit he was feeling pressure to do something, so he placed small bets, although he would have rather waited for the right time and then jump in with large bets.

I can’t find a reason to renew my subscription to watch Claus and Martin play good cop/bad cop and then go laughing all the way to the bank after the show is over.

Last subscriber out, please turn out the lights.

Didnt_lose_a_cent
Member
Didnt_lose_a_cent
March 6, 2011 3:45 pm

I recently dropped my MDCP membership because the strategies it proposed would only yield profits in the worst possible market scenarios. The short-term stock picks were mediocre. I didn’t lose any money (aside from the membership cost) because I didn’t follow most of the advice. When I did follow the advice, I timed my purchases and sells better. I dropped MDCP because I could get cheaper similar advice by reading the mountain of Weiss Group junk mail I get. These guys are no worse than any other Investment newsletter writers with respect to how they talk up their few successes and downplay their losers. The FTC fine was old news, anybody could have found info about it before spending any money on Weiss advice. The FTC essentially ruled that with their auto-trade service they were acting too much like stock brokers, not merely Newsletter writers. The Weiss news letters are overpriced, and the investment portfolios under perform. As far as MDCP goes, Claus appeared to have no market timing sense, but that is not surprising, considering that he based all his predictions on data from the times leading up to and following the last great depression. He says time and time again that times are different, but his strategies do not change.

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AlThumbs
Member
AlThumbs
March 15, 2011 3:57 pm

MDCP rolled out in March of 2009. It promised to avoid the buy and hold technique that tanked so many portfolios (including mine) in 2008. We would be “making investments designed to generate profits in the great bear market… and when the recovery comes, we’ll go for windfall profits with the great stocks that are selling pennies on the dollar.”
It touted 11 Laws of Bear Market Success and preported to have the technical tools to make money in any market. Well two years later the MDC portfolio is down 10% and the S & P is up 65%.
Every month members receive a regurgatation about how the fed has tanked the economy and why the market is going to drop hard tomorrow; no wait, it might be this afternoon; no, I guess it’s tomorrow.
They have been wrong on trends and wrong on individual selections throughout the two years of existence. The most amazing thing to me, is that in the one area they have managed to be correct; the bull market trend in gold ; the guy running the program, Claus Vogt, managed to pick a stock that still lost money. They have “put” us into high risk inverse ETF’s and allowed these investments to drop without consideration of stop losses.
Now with investors dropping out, Marty Weiss has the gaul to issue a pep talk explaining that his contrarian portfolio is “insurance” against the big bear market drop that is coming tommorrow.
At no time during promotion did he describe this as insurance. It was represented as a program that would consider alternative investments that would allow us to make money in any kind of market. He sold this that they had the technical indicators to keep us on the right side of the market. His number one Law is “We’ll protect capital.” The program has been an abysmal failure.
At the subscription price, the only insurance provided is that Marty Weiss get his vacation paid for. My subscription has expired and I am in the process of unwinding about 7 inverse ETF’s , trying to midigate the loss; but with no hope of breaking even.
If wikipedia had a picture of a sucker – it would be me.
I would recommend that you don’t let them put your picture next to mine.

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Robert
Guest
Robert
March 22, 2011 2:45 pm

Today was my last day with this Weiss disaster of an investment product known as the “Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio”. Claus Vogt manages the portfolio as well as manages the gross mis-timings of portfolio purchases and sales. The S&P 500 is up 66% since the MCP became operational in March 2009 until yesterday, but the Claus Vogt managed Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio is down 12% during the same period. Essentially Claus has underperformed the market (S&P 500) by nearly 80%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The portfolio actually owns a major gold miner’s stock that’s price has gone down over the last two years while the price of gold was rising. I didn’t even realize such a thing was possibleThat not so lustrous gold stock is presently down 20% sine Claus said it was “a great company”. The only thing it and the MDCP turned out to be good for was findind a fast way to loose money, a very fast and wasteful way to loose hard earned money.
Martin Weiss, in my opinion, has lost his moral compass.

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Weiss Sucks
Guest
April 14, 2011 8:47 pm

Pimps and whores is the best way to describe the Weiss team. They will pimp you to death on their doom and gloom services and rob you blind in the process. They could care less about performance.
My advice is to never, ever, ever invest with a Marty Weiss, Money and Markets, or Uncommon Wisdom newsletter.

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EagleFl
EagleFl
July 26, 2011 4:44 pm

The current history that Weiss Ratings posts, shows only one winner among the last 11 trades. Claus seems like a pretty smart guy but that hasn’t translated into profitable trades. I subscribed at the beginning and hung in for about 8 months.

Casalan
Guest
Casalan
August 16, 2011 2:10 pm

Indeed, the million dollar contrarian portfolio is consistent in its mediocrity.
The only ones making money is Marty Weiss with our subscriptions. I have been out for a while and am mad at myself to have trusted this service.

mike spenser
Guest
mike spenser
January 12, 2012 3:54 pm

They gave out ticker’s TBT & TBF May be too
early

Ian Shearer
Ian Shearer
January 12, 2012 6:52 pm

I was tempted to join the MDCP, luckily the entry price was just too steep for me. I waited for the crowing ” You didn’t join and now look we’re up X%” and waited, and waited. So I see from the other posts they had nothing to crow about. All about timing. Excellent reasoning from Claus for a bust and a Euro collapse, still on the cards maybe but the market has outperformed them.

Actually I would not tar all the Weiss team with the same brush. Larry Edelson has called the gold and silver markets pretty well, he has made and saved me a small fortune. I see Larry’s real wealth report picks don’t beat the S&P so steer clear of those, but consider his chart analysis as competent.

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