Description
Using “Foundation for the Study of Cycles” data to invest a real money portfolio.
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It all souded great , but it dawned on me that that I could never recoupe the subcription fee even on a great year.Far too expensive for very so so returns.
All the same, I believe Monty is sound enough , but with the market swinging as it is, a longer term view is essential.No point trying to time little moves.
I’m out.
I had high hopes for Monty as he is not a knee-jerk bear like the rest of the Weiss squad, and perhaps he will pan out after all. There’s an interesting change in the RGP: the decrease (from 2 days to 1) in the “head-start” time subscribers are given. Not that getting into the latest reco ASAP is necessarily better (as we learned so well from Klaus the De$troyer and his perpetually plunging picks), but this must have been Monty’s idea–suspect he was feeling hamstrung by the 2-day policy. This change would imply that his picks are actually tending to go up rather than down.
Speaking of Klaus, does the Million-Dollar Contrarian service still exist?
Can the new subscribers of October tell us how they feel about Monty’s recommendations and timing?
I subscribed in early October and as a novice investor I conceded my judgment on timing to Monty’s judgment. The advice on how to enter the portfolio was against my grain and what I had read. The portfolio after I entered it (immediately invest in all positions) showed only slight profit (less than 1 percent at best) after the first month or so, and then turned to the red. I just bailed out (December 1) for a full refund and a realized loss of about 1 percent. I am still holding onto the gold and agriculture ETF’s for the longer term, so I will probably turn a profit. I was surprised by the exquisitely poor timing decisions which seemed to be made isolated from current events and the longer term. I never took the core positions (except for the gold) and only played the dynamic portfolio. Although they claim that the subscription should be seen as a tuition, the decisions Monty makes are based on proprietary curves and data. Although I did learn a bit, there is an illusion that you are learning more than you are.
I think the membership is closed more as a retention ploy to make members think that they are in something special. I was also impressed at the constant barrage of advertising I was subjected to for other Weiss products even though I was already a customer.
I was also very surprised at the disconnect between the investment philosophy I had “subscribed to” and that put forth in Weiss’ book.
hind-sight is 20-20 for sure – and i’m forced to view the steep entry fee and ~$2k in losses as tuition to the school of hard knocks – in my case, to learn that i should have listened earlier to my gutt and bailed out for a refund, that lackluster performance was not going to change, and that so-called experts can drone on about how great things are going to be without ever getting there
Skid Rower,
Sorry to hear. Didn’t you read the reviews under Million Dollar portfolio offered by Weiss and Claus Vogt? The warnings were out there. Plus I put the 2nd posting on this review. STAY AWAY and make your own money. THESE GUYS ARE SCUM AND WILL LOSE YOU MONEY!!!
Surprising that even Monty A (hedge-fund guru) can’t seem to consistently beat the S&P 500. The portfolio was slightly ahead of the S&P for a while, but now lags by a few percent. The change from a 48hr heads-up notice to a 24hr heads-up notice (presumably to get better performance for the portfolio by reducing the lag time between each reco and it’s buy/sell order) has not helped so far. I like to see the pros fail as it makes me feel better about my own failing, but it also makes me wonder how we individual investors stand a chance at all of making money.
Dave,
These guys are not pro’s, they are the worst stock pickers ever because they are perma-bears. This is now the 2nd year running that they are predicting a double dip in the economy. If they do it every year, they will be right eventually. By that time you will be broke. Please go find more reputable people to follow and stop losing money with these guys or save your self the money and buy SPY and call it a day.
I have appreciated the good intentions of Martin Weiss and associates. My gut feeling is that they mean well and certainly explain their findings adequately. That having been said, I can’t feel the confidence in their overall recommend-
tions. The market has shown many areas of appreciation in which I feel they could have shown more positiveness in, and according-ly, profited measurably. I realize they run a conservative program – perhaps too much so!
My approach to entering into the “Million Dollar portfolio” was
premised upon running a phantom amount of money out of my over-all personal portfolio following their directives. I parallel-ed their directives with my own different approach toward investments. I find I have greatly profited in my own selections and noticed minimal advantage in their choices.
I am not faulting their approach. It’s just not my style of
investing. I think the people within their group are most erudite, thoughtful and conservative. I will certainly continue to read their analysis’s whenever the opportunity
presents itself.
PortMan, thanks for your concern, but I’m not losing any money nor am I following; I am only observing. Monty A is a pro and not a perma-bear (well, he does have one $-losing inverse hedge–perhaps a prerequisite for collecting a salary from Weiss, Inc?). He uses a range of approaches and thinks globally and is diversified across the “asset classes”. And he *still* can’t beat the S&P consistently.
Your SPY idea is probably a good one.
The actual performance versus the hype to sign on is gigantic. I signed on at the beginning of the service and made several trades with an average gain of about 1-2 percent. The published performance history that Weiss publishes show the largest winner of 5.5 percent. Expensive and not worth it in my view. The portfolio result to date says -0.17 percent.
I suscribed to the MIllion-Dollar Rapid Growth Portfolio (RPG) in October 2010 after falling for the much hyped re-introduction. All I can say is that the recomendations and portfolio, except for GLD, which anyone could have picked, have went absolutely no-where. Monty Agarwal has no strategy, or clue for that matter, other than to hide the money in cash and gold, or take risks that result in loss. I canceled my subscription at the end of July 2011…thank goodness! When I called to cancel, there was no asking why or follow-up as to why I left. It is interesting to me that hasn’t been any promotion of the RPG service since…must be an indication of the failure. Weiss is now selling an options program as the best wasy to make money…I am not falling the hype again!
Just goes to show that no matter how articulate, seemingly astute, self-confident, and worldly a portfolio manager is (referring to Monty here), the picks can be as lousy as those you’d make yourself. Well, at least he didn’t lose much of Martin’s money while not keeping up with the S&P. So now it’s Mr. Kerr taking over the stock-picking helm. I hope someone writes a review, because I’m not subscribing–had more than enough of these Weiss boondoggles.
Posted to wrong thread…deleted.
Posted to wrong thread…deleted.
I have followed Weiss for several years, he has a lot to say and usually is correct. However, every subscription with his group including this one had been a dismal event. Either the picks simply don’t perform or the investments are market neutral and don’t return much. Additionally, one could probably do well buying the opposite of what Monty recommends as he seems to be on the wrong side more often than not. Only exception would be gold, but by now anyone investing would have that figured out.