Today I’m looking at a gold stock teaser that’s a few days old – but don’t worry, none of the stocks teased have so far entered the stratosphere, despite the fact that yesterday was supposedly the day by which we “must get on board now.”
The teaser is for Monty Agarwal’s Million-Dollar Rapid Growth Portfolio, published by Weiss research and, like some of Martin Weiss’ other projects, based in part on the work of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. I’ve heard a lot of complaints about this “Foundation” and about the other Weiss newsletters this year, but that seems in large part because of the “Great Depression” marketing and fearmongering that we see so much of from Martin Weiss (not that he doesn’t truly believe it, or that he won’t eventually be right, but he apparently made a lot of subscribers angry during the last year’s steep market rally).
I don’t know whether Monty Agarwal has a track record to be envied in mining stocks or not, but I do know that he’s teasing a few of them today to buy for gold’s next leg up … and since he’s teasing with a few clues, we ought to be able to track down his picks.
Here’s the backdrop:
“HUGE profit opportunities in GOLD BEGIN NEXT WEEK!
“Nearly two dozen Western nations are now lighting the fuse on the greatest economic convulsion in many generations.
“Every major asset class will reel: U.S. stocks … the bond market … the dollar, the euro, the yen and other currencies … energy and other commodities … ALL will convulse violently.
“And gold, mankind’s venerable, time-honored safe haven and inflation hedge, will give you the opportunity to multiply your money over and over again.
“Monty Agarwal: Right now, I’m eyeing these THREE mining stocks with the potential to surge 50% … 100% … 300% … up to 400% as gold prices continue to climb …
“But you must get on board NOW — no later than NEXT MONDAY, March 22, or you could miss them!”
And gosh, I am so very sorry that I’m writing about this on March 23, so perhaps you’ve missed that critical deadline. The deadline, of course, was really just for their “special offer” for the newsletter, not for any catalyst for these specific stocks, so perhaps we still have time to grow wealthy beyond our wildest dreams. Still, best to hurry up here, no? How about those clues?
“Stock #1 — Potential gains of 50% … 100% … or MORE: Our first candidate is a true triple-play, controlling a total of 21.7 million ounces of gold … 84.5 million ounces of silver … and a remarkable 541 million pounds of copper.
“In the last three months of 2009, the company set a new gold production record — up an impressive 41% over the previous year.
“Plus, this company appears to be one the great bargains in the mining space. It controls gold, silver and copper resources valued at $26.96 billion. Using commonly-accepted “10% rule,” this company should have a market cap of $2.7 billion — but its total market cap is just $1.8 billion.
“We think its shares would have to jump 50% just to catch up. If gold prices hit $1,300 per ounce, its share price could double.”
If we toss those clues into the Thinkolator we get our universe narrowed down considerably — market cap around $1.8 billion, 21.7 million ounces of gold, 84.5 million ounces of silver, and we really are down to just one stock: New Gold (NGD in both NY and Toronto).
And yes, New Gold did report a 41% increase in gold production last quarter, too — so that’s pretty much a perfect match. But the reserves numbers are all wrong.
Take a look at this page listing New Gold’s resources and reserves — if you add up the gold proven, probable, measured and indicated reserves and resources, you get almost exactly 21.7 million ounces of gold. So that plus the exactly 41% gold production growth makes me pretty certain that we’re right about New Gold being the solution to the teaser — but if you’re going to stick to actual reality, you usually can’t add resources (measured and indicated) to reserves (proven and probable). Usually reserves are calculated and described as a subset of resources, and the smaller reserves numbers represent the fraction of the resources number that can probably (or definitely) be produced economically. This is not always the case, so I could be misunderstanding these filings — though if so then they’ve mixed up the silver numbers by not adding them together … on to that …
The silver and copper numbers teased are both on this page, too, but they’re calculated differently. There is a 84.5 million ounce silver number listed, but that’s for the measured and indicated resources, so to my understanding it’s more defensible — of that, assuming that we’re working with resources numbers that are inclusive of reserves, New Gold claims that 56.2 million ounces are proven and probable reserves. And there’s also a 541 million pound copper number on the page, but that hardly makes sense at all — it’s much smaller than the “impressive” numbers that New Gold claims, they have claimed 3.68 billion pounds of copper in their reserves and resources, and the much smaller 541 million pound number comes in as the add-on “inferred” mineral content, the most uncertain level of ore claimed for their properties.
It seems very unlikely to me that we’d find all these numbers associated with the resources and reserves for a mining company that does have a market cap of about $1.8 billion and gold production growth of 41% last quarter and not have it be the answer to our teaser, so I’m pretty certain that New Gold is our teaser target here — but if I’m right, someone was either staying up too late to finish their work or playing a little fast and loose with the numbers in the tease. Not that I haven’t been guilty of big errors myself, just wanted to point that out.
You can see New Gold’s latest quarterly report press release here, and they did just resume work at one of their main mines, so that may be a positive. The company has a few development sites, but the main mines are all producing, and at very similar levels (they are Peak in Australia, Mesquite in California, and Cerro San Pedro in Mexico, which is the somewhat embattled mine that shut down briefly — Peak and Cerro San Pedro are expected to produce right around 100 thousand ounces of gold this year each, Mesquite about half again as much. New Gold is not tiny, it is large enough to make it into the portfolio of the GDX gold miners ETF and the market cap is still right at $1.8 billion, but it is certainly far smaller than the big multibillion dollar names. I’ll leave it to those of you who follow miners more religiously to tell us what you think of this particular stock, just throw out your comments in the box below.
Shall we see if we can figger out the next stock, too? I’ve got a bit of a headache from the silliness with the reserve and resource numbers, but I’ll give it a shot:
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“Stock #2 — “Triple-Your-Money” gains possible: This is one of the biggest, brightest gold miners on the planet, with 85 million ounces of proven gold reserves, worth nearly $94 billion with gold at $1,100 an ounce.
“The headline story here is great management: In 2009, for instance, revenues jumped 26% and net cash flow more than DOUBLED to a record $2.9 billion.
“Like stock #1, this one could double as gold prices surge in the months ahead.”
Criminy, here we go again. The only mining stock that I can find with a cash flow of $2.9 billion for last year (a scale which really narrows our search to just the largest few miners) is Newmont Mining (NEM). But I don’t know that anyone has proven reserves of 85 million ounces — the only way I can get at that number for Newmont is by combining proven and probable reserves (the proven reserves are just about 20% of that amount), and by using 2008 numbers instead of 2009. The proven and probable reserves increased a bit in 2009, from 84.96 million ounces to 91.78 ounces, so if this is indeed Newmont then they’ve been shortchanged a bit. There’s a lot to like about Newmont, as there is about fellow titans Barrick Gold (which has the largest proven and probable reserves, at almost 140 million ounces) and Goldcorp, the only miners that are bigger than Newmont — but they’re huge, Newmont is a $25 billion company, so I’m not going to reveal any secrets about the largest and most closely-followed miners in the world.
And frankly, if you love gold and think Newmont, Barrick and Goldcorp are the best bets as huge miners of the yellow stuff, you may well be just as happy owning shares of the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which is dominated by those three companies (throw in Anglogold Ashanti and Kinross and you’ve got half of the ETF in those five stocks).
But we’ve got one more teaser stock to search for … here are the clues:
“Stock #3 — A possible QUADRUPLE: This company has outperformed almost every gold miner on the planet since the bull market in gold began back in 2000.
“But it’s NOT sitting on its laurels — not by a long shot! Last year, it increased its proven gold reserves to a new all-time record 18.4 million ounces. And, at the same time, it also boosted its gold production to a new all-time record high.
“Management is world-class all the way. With gold selling at over $1,100 per ounce, this company’s cost for producing an ounce of gold is still just $399!
“We are looking for this outstanding miner to rise in value much faster than gold, and it t won’t be the first time: Since 2000, gold is up 400%, this stock is up 1,184%, outpacing gold’s rise by almost three to one!
“If we see the same leverage going forward and gold rises, say, 20% to $1,300 an ounce, we could see a 60% gain in this share’s price. And if gold rises 100% in this next major cycle, we could be looking at a 300% gain!”
The best match for those clues is, again, an imperfect match — this is probably Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM), which has had a spectacular decade and is a low cost producer … though they report cash costs now are down to about $350 per ounce of gold, not $399 any more. And as of the last quarterly release, they were still experiencing record levels of production, and reported reserves of 18.4 million ounces, which is indeed their “all time high.” And again, this is a huge company — market cap of near $9 billion, and also one of the major components of the GDX ETF (though in the top ten, not the top five.
So what do you think? Excited about the potential for New Gold, Agnico-Eagle or Newmont? Prefer the bigger guys Barrick or Goldcorp? Think that all this just hurts the head too much and you might as well buy some shares of the GDX ETF? Prefer to go down the chain a ways to the junior miners and hope for a real barnburner? Let us know your thoughts by sharing a comment below, thanks!
Oh, and a very special P.S.: You’ll be shocked to hear this, but Martin Weiss just sent me an email saying that there was a “computer glitch” last night (heard that one before? Me, too … the “glitch” seems to often be of the “gosh, the petty cash is getting low” variety) — and so some investors who were terribly excited about his Million-Dollar Rapid Growth Portfolio were unable to get in before the deadline, so they’re extending the offer to today. So if you want to spend a couple hundred bucks to see if I’m right about these three miners, and see what else the “Foundation” has to tell you about the impending boom in gold prices up to $1,300 and the leveraged move the miners will make, well, there’s still time. If you do choose to throw some money their way, make sure to come back here and let us know what you thought by sharing a review of the Million-Dollar Rapid Growth Portfolio at Stock Gumshoe Reviews (this letter is brand new so we don’t have any reviews yet, but you can see the other Weiss newsletters reviewed here). Thanks!