Motley Fool’s “Dawn of the T288 Era” — What are those Secret AR Stocks hinted at by Eric Bleeker?

What's being teased in the new ads for the Motley Fool's Extreme Opportunities: AR?

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, June 11, 2019

Eric Bleeker at the Motley Fool came out with a big “presentation” recently where he walked around the stage pitching a new high-end project that they’re calling Extreme Opportunities: AR — a $999 no refunds one-year subscription to their thinking about augmented reality, starting with a 15-stock model portfolio and including whatever changes or updates they make to that portfolio for the coming year (and yes, they’ll autorenew you at “whatever the future price is,” right now they say it’s list priced at $1,999).

So naturally, we know that no one would ever jump on a $999 product that they’re not sure about, not when there’s no refund — and certainly would never spend that much to get a “hot” stock tip or two (or even 15)… so what to do?

Well, I can’t tell you whether or not their special reports will be worthwhile (they had a similar product about Artificial Intelligence stocks a while back, if you subscribed to that and have an opinion please share it with a comment below)… but I can sift through the hints that Bleeker drops in his ad presentation and let you know about the few companies he highlights, and let you get a little head start on researching the industry for yourself. That, at least, will give you some background and let you know whether you think it makes sense to spend that kind of money for some investment research.

And by the way, I will give you one tip: Don’t think of the gain potential of “getting in” on something hot when you consider a pricey newsletter subscription, think instead of the newsletter as part of your “investment expenses.”

Especially if you’re just learning and are not dealing with a big portfolio, or if you let yourself dabble with individual stocks with only a small part of your portfolio, be careful to think about what you’re spending in relation to the size of your investment portfolio. Everyone is justifiably wary of mutual fund fees in this era of low-cost index funds and ETFs, and thankfully hardly anyone ends up paying 1.5-2% expense ratios for below-average mutual funds anymore (thanks, Jack Bogle! Rest in Peace, you are a hero), but it’s not just mutual fund fees that can be a weight on your portfolio — pay as much attention to the money you spend to research investments. If you are thinking about investing $200,000 in augmented reality stocks for the next several years, then sure, spending $1,000 or $2,000 a year for what you consider to be expert research and guidance might (arguably) be reasonable — that’s similar to paying a mutual fund 0.5% to 1% to manage your money.

If, however, this is the kind of thing you’d just speculate on with some play money (assuming $200,000 isn’t “play money” for you), and maybe you’ll just buy a few stocks and put $10,000 or $20,000 into these kinds of ideas over the course of a year or two, then you’re spending a LOT — you’ve effectively committed 5% of your investment just to do some research, with no chance of a refund if you find the research disappointing, and you would NEVER invest in a mutual fund that charged a 5% annual fee (right?).

“Don’t spend more than 1% of your portfolio doing research” is a rule of thumb I feel comfortable with, and even that is an indulgence unless you are an active investor in individual stocks and really enjoy reading the newsletters or other research sources you receive, and get something out of the experience beyond the buy/sell advice on stocks. That’s just my thinking, though, you are, of course, welcome to do whatever you want with your money.

So anyway, what’s being promoted in the ad?

The basic implication is that augmented reality (abbreviated AR) will be the next major breakthrough –the next evolution in technology, similar in impact (though larger, the hype portends) to the personal computer, then the internet, then mobile computing and smart phones. That’s a common prediction we’ve heard many times.

And the meat of this promotion is that they are certain Apple will be leading the way, and that their “T288” device will be what makes augmented reality take off and create a new industry, similar to the iPhone a decade ago.

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As is often the case with these kinds of stories, we also get lots of fleeting images of patent filings and drawings that buttress the argument that Apple is just about to release something fantastical (remember the patent drawings of that roll-up iPhone a few years ago? Yeah, most patented designs and products don’t end up being developed).

And we get that other oft-used ad technique: Photos of the mysterious secret building where Apple is developing key technologies for this “T288” — in this case, those are photos of a location in Santa Clara, CA where Apple is reportedly building (or growing) the next generation of Micro-LEDs for use in some future display technology… maybe that augmented reality headset? PatentlyApple posted a photo of the same building with a story about Apple trying to push display technology forward last year, if you’d like a little more background. That was mostly a story about how Apple’s display-building suppliers were a little nervous, but, as with so many of these R&D stories, it’s still pretty early and Apple might or might not use Micro-LEDs in some new AR device.

The “T288” name is not made up by the Motley Fool — that’s a “code name” that has been used to refer to the Fool’s long-rumored virtual reality/augmented reality headset/glasses project. There was a decent-size splash about this on all the Apple-following websites last year, so if you want to catch up with where folks were a year ago it’s worth reading this from Macrumors last year or the forecasts covered in Bloomberg back in 2017 (which thought a new AR device could be ready for release in 2020).

So the basic argument is that they’re going to help you get out ahead of Apple’s next device and the “T288 Era” by helping you buy the suppliers and companies that will enable this revolution… and probably, if past big picture ad spiels like this are any indication, they’ll also be talking up some of the companies who will benefit from the gradual adoption of AR technology even if they have nothing to do specifically with Apple or its products.

So with that broad pitch, what are the specific stock picks? They say they’re starting out with a portfolio of 15 stocks, but they only drop hints about three of them… let’s see if we can name them for you.

Here are the clues we get about the first one:

“A key augmented reality technology we’ve been tracking is ‘3D sensing’ – which might sound like sci-fi – but in a nutshell, it’s the technology that allows AR devices to map the world around them.

“We’re confident this technology is essential to the rise of augmented reality, so we’ve been tracking the key suppliers that can provide 3D sensing solutions to breakthrough AR devices.

“Now, you can imagine our surprise when a tiny supplier that’s about 1/500th the size of Apple announced in a recent quarter that its 3D sensing business was suddenly seeing sales skyrocket by an outrageous 200% year over year!

“Proof that you’ve already missed the boat on investing before Project T288 hits the production lines?

“Hardly.

“We believe this sudden rise in sales is attributable to augmented reality technology simply being built in a limited way into smartphones – NOT to Project T288 going into production.”

So far that 3D sensing is mostly being used in very short-range, and with limited use cases, but presumably it will keep growing and will become more important with more precise AR demands… right now the big use is on the front of your iPhone X, with the face-sensing scanners that serve to ID you and unlock your phone (or replace your face with a cute animoji).

So who is it? That’s very likely to be II-VI (IIVI), the optical equipment company that is one of the triumvirate of 3D sensor firms supplying Apple and other major manufacturers — most interesting at the moment because they are buying one of the other ones (Finisar (FNSR)) in an attempt to scale up and create two-way competition with Lumentum (LITE), which has apparently gotten the lion’s share of Apple’s 3D sensor business so far.

II-VI did report 200% growth in 3D sensor shipments late last year, though that is far from being the overall revenue growth of the company. I’ve seen a few forecasts about 3D sensing being relatively slow to “take hodl” in smart phones, like this one from Trendforce, and most of them also rely heavily on guessing about what kind of impact the next iPhone upgrade cycle will have. This is still a technology that’s not even in 10% of phones yet, let alone widely used for AR, so in many cases we’ll remain in the dark until word of what advancements will come in the next iPhone and whether that creates a big upgrade cycle, and a real high-volume demand driver for these sensors.

The Fool definitely recommends IIVI for some of their services, that’s confirmed in the disclosures in this free article they posted last month, and it’s the best match for these clues, though LITE will likely be driven by the same market forces and will probably have similar performance. For what it’s worth, the Fool does not apparently have any active recommendations on Lumentum or Finisar.

Next clue?

“For example, think back to how AR technology could improve communication technologies like FaceTime exponentially. Now imagine the kinds of profits that could pour into a company that becomes the “operating system” for AR communications.

“We have that company – and many other early leaders in key AR technologies – researched and recommended inside Extreme Opportunities: AR for you the moment you join!”

And in the video “presentation” Bleeker also notes that this a stock that is not recommended by the Gardner brothers in their Stock Advisor or Rule Breakers services (yet, at leaset), but it’s a stock that they both like.

So what is it? That’s not enough clues to be definitive… but I’m pretty sure he’s hinting at the wildly hyped-up video conferencing company Zoom Video Communications (ZM).

I’ve never really looked at this one, but yes, they are trying to build on their core video conferencing platform with “next generation” augmented reality to push into the “you’re really there in the meeting” feeling for remote participants.

This is a company I don’t really understand, to be frank — they offer something that has been available for a long time, without an obviously better experience (as a non-user, at least) and with huge amounts of competition, and yet they’re apparently getting a $25 billion valuation (50% above the IPO price of two months ago, which itself seemed nutty to me). That’s about 50X sales, if you annualize this quarter’s $122 million in revenue (“annualize” is just fancy investor-speak for “multiply by four”), so there’s probably something more appealing than I understand about their product.

Zoom just reported its quarter, so you can see a different Motley Fool writer’s report on the Q1 results here. The total addressable market is indeed huge, and maybe Zoom is so much better than the incumbents that they’ll be able to accelerate their revenue growth, perhaps they’re just better integrated with other key SaaS technologies (Salesforce, Twilio, etc.) than the entrenched competitors are, or maybe those competitors have just failed to innovate (the leaders are Cisco’s Webex, Microsoft’s Skype, LogMeIn’s GoToMeeting, though I’m sure there are a lot of others). I have no idea, but I expect this is one that I won’t be able to wrap my head around.

And one more…

“… we’ve combed through the industries AR could transform and picked out our top plays. For example, Extreme Opportunities: AR comes with a health care company just 1/100th the size of Apple that’s been an early innovator in the AR market.”

And Bleeker also notes that this is one that is “loved by David Gardner” … and that’s about it for clues.

So, again, we can’t be 100% sure but the Thinkolator tells us that must be intuitive surgical (ISRG). The robotic surgery pioneer has seen revenue growth come down a bit as they’ve been seeing more trade-ins for the latest generation of the Da Vinci robotic surgery system, and as more systems have been leased rather than purchased — it’s a bit more of a “steady state” business now that so many huge hospital groups, at least in the US, already have all the Da Vinci systems they need, so the stock has spent the past couple years adjusting to the fact that it’s not going to see nosebleed revenue growth anymore… which makes it hard to pay 15 or 20X sales for the stock.

That kind of thing never worries David Gardner, though — in face, one of the key criteria for his “Rule Breakers” stocks is that they have to be considered “too expensive” by conventional Wall Street analysts and investors.

So you obviously would not be excited about ISRG on the valuation — it’s recently growing earnings by 5%, and trades at 53X trailing earnings. That’s pretty tough to swallow. Maybe not as tough as Zoom’s 50X sales, but still tough if you have any rational or conservative bones in your body.

And even if you go to the forward earnings estimates instead of the actual trailing earnings, you have a stock trading at about 37X next year’s earnings while growing earnings at an average pace of about 15% a year (according to analyst forecasts for the next few years). It’s not particularly a cash flow story either, free cash flow is not markedly different from earnings… and there’s nothing exciting in the balance sheet (it’s fine, they have no debt and about a billion dollars in cash… but nothing to change the way you think about a $60 billion company).

So like so many stocks, this is just a richly-valued growth company. If it grows a little faster than expectations, things will be fine… if it grows more slowly than expected, things could get ugly pretty quickly. You have to believe in the story to feel OK about spending this much money, especially for a stock that is well-covered and well-known and already very large — ISRG might do well, but it’s not am emerging or unknown story.

That said, my thinking about this one is probably quite biased because I’m still a little bitter about Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), mostly thanks to the embarrassing fact that I did a terrible job managing my ISRG position back in the 2008-9 crash (I had only a small position and could have handled the risk, but it didn’t feel like that at the time and I foolishly thought I could be clever and buy back in later… which, of course, I never did. I let the shares be called from my account in a stop loss, partly because I was buying a house… it is up 1,000% since then).

And yes, augmented reality is an obvious possible augment for the world of robotic surgery, where the ability to visualize the inside of the body and the approach to a surgical problem before you cut into the actual skin would be nice. This isn’t going to be a key part of every da Vinci surgery this year, but it is actually real — Intuitive Surgical got FDA approval for their IRIS augmented reality product a few months ago and will presumably be selling that as an add-on for the da Vinci (or as part of the “subscription” terms that they’re moving toward with some of their products and services).

**correction**
A reader pointed out that I flossed over the “1/100th the size of Apple” part of the clue. Sorry!

ISRG has indeed made inroads into AR, and I can’t be definitive with that level of clues, but at that size my initial response is to move my “most likely” bet for that one to Teladoc (TDOC), a telemedicine company I have owned but don’t currently own.

Teladoc is promising if they maintain leadership in telemedicine via deals with big insurance companies — or preferably with Medicare. They are better-financed than competitors, which is a big deal at this early stage, but do face challenges and have had some management issues I didn’t like (which is why I let my shares go when they hit a stop loss), but I’m willing to reconsider as their story evolves.

And, well, that’s about all I can tell you this morning — Eric Bleeker says they have 15 stocks to start with as an augmented reality portfolio, and I’m pretty sure that Zoom Video, Intuitive Surgical Teladoc and II-VI are the three that they’re dropping hints on today. Possible contenders for the other dozen on the list are probably Apple (AAPL) itself, Electronic Arts (EA), Take Two Interactive (TTWO), Zynga (ZNGA) or Activision (ATVI) for the video game sector (all have been MF recommendations at one point or another, don’t know about today), NVIDIA (NVDA) or AMD (AMD) for advanced graphics processors, Universal Display (OLED), which has been teased many times by the Fool for their exposure to the latest iPhone screens, Wayfair (W) for retail, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they throw Facebook (FB) in there as well but, well, I’m just guessing at this point so I’ll toss it over to you — any augmented reality ideas you’re excited about? Wild predictions to share? Let us know with a comment below.

Disclosure: Of the companies mentioned above, I own shares of NVIDIA and Apple. I will not trade in any covered stock for at least three days, per Stock Gumshoe’s trading rules.


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galhhudson
Member
👍12
galhhudson

Is it possible that the Gummy Guru struck out? I’m no sleuth, but here is the disclosure from the MF itself: “Disclosure: Please note this special investigation is only available today. This event was filmed in front of a paid audience. The Motley Fool recommends shares of Apple, Cognex, Universal Display, and NVIDIA. David Gardner owns shares of Apple. Eric Bleeker owns shares of Apple, Cognex, NVIDIA, and Universal Display. Jason Moser owns shares of Apple. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

JayBee
Guest
JayBee

How come there is no name listed for you?

barcode
Guest
barcode

It is white on white, for some reason, on every top level post… probably a glitch in the CSS… 😉

billolev
Member
👍0
billolev

I will say I have spoken to users of Zoom Video and they “love” it compared to the competitors, innovative and simple. I have also used it during some recent interviews and my experience was more efficient than other competitors.

timcarp1964
Guest
timcarp1964

Agreed. I work in an industry that relies heavily on web conferencing for training, meetings, etc. I have seen most everyone punt Cisco’s Webex (just another business Cisco destroyed) because of price. The few that still use Webex for video, use another mechanism for audio. I have heard price complaints but I don’t know personally. Skype (killed by Microsoft) is awful. How many times have I seen meetings delayed because folks can’t get Skype for Business to work properly. I am seeing companies migrate to Microsoft Teams, but I don’t have enough experience with that yet. Lots of non profits… Read more »

Yirg
Member
👍0
Yirg

I work for Oracle in a development group. Internally within the group we all seem to have chosen to use Zoom. I find it intuitive and easy, and full-featured (at least for my needs). It is also efficient as I access it over a VPN.

I’m in on a Support call tomorrow. It will be over Webex. Can’t say whether the Support group still uses Webex as #1 by choice or whether it’s because that’s what the customer, another huge company, uses.

Balbir Singh
Guest
Balbir Singh

Agree zoom is awesome , much better then Microsoft teams/Skype

inve5tor
Member
👍2
inve5tor

Basically this was just another sales pitch for another portfolio. And I think it’s kind of cheesy framing it as a presentation in front of a “paid” audience. I’m not saying the Motley Fool doesn’t have good ideas, but I get turned off with all the different pitches for different portfolios. And it’s always so urgent and time sensitive, and they can only guarantee your vip access price until midnight, and that price is always a lot more than I would want to spend. I did buy in to a fairly cheap 3 yr subscription to Rule Breakers that I… Read more »

Freedom
Guest
Freedom

Me too. All the guru’s offer the $99 special for a year that doesn’t give you any real advice, but you can upgrade on many different levels for additional money. Snake oil sales tactics.

Carborundum
Guest
Carborundum

As a Motley Fool Stock Adviser subscriber, I was glad to catch something on one of the Motley Fool boards about that, where someone said “what’s with the click bait?!” and one of the employees answered that basically “it works” in enticing subscribers. The tone was somewhat apologetic as the clickbaity articles aren’t really aimed at subscribers – though to a degree it is. If I already subscribe to ONE service, I might be more likely to sign up for another one. Their free advice is also amusing. Articles like “5 reasons Netflix will crash and burn” or whatever, meanwhile,… Read more »

garymatt
Irregular
👍23
garymatt

You may not “anticipate” renewing but be aware many AUTO renewing products will (for your convenience) renew a month ahead of the stated expiration date. If you don’t catch it in time then you are greatly inconvieneced.

legrath
Member
👍-2
legrath

G’day Travis, I’ve been following AR and VR now for a few years and seen a lot of the device being readied for market this year and I’m wondering who you see as leaders in the space? There’s been a lot of advancements over the last year so my guess is many prototypes that have been rushed into production will be short lived. A true “AR HaloPhone ” is something I saw coming back in 2014 but the hardware wasn’t ready for the consumer.. I get a feeling there is something on the horizon that’ll even shake this market up… Read more »

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reallylovecoffee
Member
👍0
reallylovecoffee

Thank you for this article. I am a Motley Fool SA subscriber and I am generally happy with it but I do watch these newer (more $$$) premium services with interest. I have never been able to justify spending $1K (or more) for a subscription because an initial position for me in any given stock might be $1K. (so I would rather buy stock than investment advice). My SA subscription fees are much less than even my robo-advisor fees (and so far I have had better returns…) so I feel that is a good value. But I do enjoy trying… Read more »

gum207
Member
👍0
gum207

sounds like SecondLife to me…

Paul
Guest
Paul

Of the ones you mentioned as possibilities, the only ones not recommended now by Motley Fool are AMD, LITE, and IIVI. This is according to recent articles available to everyone. There is an older article, from last December, where they mention that they do recomment IIVI, but the latest article about them doesn’t make the recommendation. AMD seems the least likely to be a new recommendation, NVDA one of the most likely to be part of this. In this article, they mention their recommendation of Zoom (ZM): https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/06/11/3-key-ceo-quotes-from-zoom-videos-earnings-call.aspx Other semi stocks that they recommend: CRUS, NXPI, SWKS, TSM. One possibility… Read more »

Sasha
Guest
Sasha

Just a guess. Maybe they hintesd at their future value by using 3D sensing to make themselves look like a $25 billion company, ,but really aren’t and probably won’t be. … It reminds me of the lofty ideas of the 1990’s tech bubble … advertisements of foxes in rockets for “free phone service” or “faster phone service” when everyone was just starting to get cellphones. But yeah, no. I would be II-VI but not zoom. lol. And honestly I don’t know really what I’m talking about but am making a decision based on my limited knowledge and what you’ve provided.… Read more »

kielbasa
Member
👍0
kielbasa

Hey Travis, Jeff Brown of Bonner Partners just did a pitch similar to Eric Bleeker of the Motley Fool today. He hinted at 3 stocks, one in the AR space and one in the AI space and one in the CRSPR space. Maybe you could do a write up on that presentation, would be interesting how it compares to Eric Bleeker’s presentation and hinted companies.

Kevin James
Guest
Kevin James

I think MICROSOFT is a big player in the field of AR, they’ve been developing actual AR for many years and the US government is already and active customer of their Holo Lens product. Its quite impressive; and they seem to have the features down solid to a science. Just google “HoloLens” you’ll see the demos, and the price (cheaper than an iPhone). NOTE: there is at least a hand-ful of other companies that have produced similar products on the market (a few in China, and few in the US), but MSFT seems to be the most mature.

Andy
Guest
Andy

Has the T288 event already run in the U.S. (today being 13 June), or not yet? It’s being promoted to Fool.ca members for Tues June 18th.
Several of the stocks Stock Gumshoe mentions all jumped near June 11, so I’m wondering if this is Gumshoes work (good sleuthing!), or did the T288 promo run in the U.S. already, near June 11?
Andy

Rick
Guest
Rick

Thanks for the timely article, I just watched the pitch on Tuesday. Your first two look spot on, but ISRG feels too big (they hint 1/100th size of Apple). I’m looking at marker cap; was thinking Dexcom? Big player in patient monitoring and about right in terms of size. Thoughts?

musta9
Member
👍0
musta9

Hi Travis, are you sure about IIVI being the recommendation? I ask because the video presentation says that the stocks they are hinting at is not recommended in any of their other services. I have a stock advisor membership and IIVI has already been in their recommended by them in 2011. Thanks for the great articles.

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PamelaM
Guest
PamelaM

Thank you Stock Gumshoe for your Newsletters. There is one company I’m pleasantly excited about. I obtained shares in a Spin-Out AR/AI/3D startup in September ‘18, in Toronto first CSE:NTAR and FSE: N29, now also NY OTC:NEXCF. The name is NexTech AR Solutions Corp. And currently offering eCommerce retailer sites AR/AI Technology and 3D shopping. Also holograms. Their Administration’s employment experience is impressive.

Fakename
Guest
Fakename

It now says MF recommends and owns shares of Zoom Video Communication. It didn’t a few days ago. Looks like your guess was right!

krkingsley
Member
👍0
krkingsley

Just wanted to say how much I appreciate your thoughtful research and analysis to help clarify as well as debunk so much of what’s being sold to us. This may be one of the most valuable investment services out there.

ljohnson816
Irregular
👍0

Very frustrated with Motley Fool. The Ar/ ai stocks are mentioned in other services from them. I joined but have written 3 emails with no one willing to respond. And I had to pay $1999 not $999!!!! They seem to be moving towards multiple services pushing the same stocks. Terribly disappointing in David Gardner for allowing this tactic.

qcook
Guest
qcook

Is Travis on the right track with his three picks of Zoom Video, Teladoc and II-VI?

Mark
Guest
Mark

Oh wow! They usually let you transfer your money to another service they offer, like Stock Advisor or Rule Breakers. Can you confirm a few stocks they picked, like ZM? Any new stocks at all? Thx!

Fakename
Guest
Fakename

ljohnson816, Motley Fool has a 1-800 number. Call it. I did and have no complains with how they handled my problem. As others have asked, Are the three stocks mentioned here (II-VI, ZM and TDOC) in the Augmented Reality portfolio?

Andy
Guest
Andy

Picks & Shovels. The promo ran today in Canada and my observation – buy the fundamental “picks and shovels” stocks. Not MF recs, but buy any major cellular carrier. Everybody blows through their monthly data plan to stream these events. And will need even more data when you have AR/VR glasses.

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filatory
Member
👍0
filatory

IIVI seems like an AR related stock that the Fool could make a compelling case for. The semi-conductor subdivision will definitely benefit from the rollout of 5G which is a requirement of successful AR. SiC has significant benefits as a substrate in 5G applications. They will soon be able to manufacture Gaan/sic components themselves instead of relying on their deal with SEDI. The likely candidate for AR near eye displays are metalenses. Some forms require a tight combination of optics and semiconductor technology using photolithography in the coating process. IIVI can more easily combine those disciplines given the strength of… Read more »

bob kochnowicz
Guest
bob kochnowicz

I was offered this deal for 500 dollars for 6 months. They told me they would give me their top 15 AR plays. I passed because I cant buy them all.I own 30 stocks right now and thats my limit. I will say I have had a really positive experience with the Fool the last 10 years.

Mark
Guest
Mark

Can anyone please confirm at least one stock they recommend? Hoping for ZM, because I’m really tempted to buy; just want some piece of mind that MF agrees! 🙂 I’m a Stock Advisor and Rule Breaker member and absolutely love those services. I’m always tempted by the advertised portfolios, but have never purchased. They usually announce a few during their videos or podcasts, but I haven’t heard them discuss this topic since announcing AR. I think they’re coming out with another one soon, for IPOs. Anyway, one of two confirmations for the AR Portfolio would be awesome! Thx! XD

sugieya
Member
👍0
sugieya

Thank you for your insights, so helpful as always. I am wondering if you would be willing to share the management issues you didn’t like with TDOC that caused you to be OK with just letting them go.