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Fool’s “What Every Apple Investor Must See Before 2018” pitch

What's Motley Fool Rule Breakers touting as the "1 Stock to Buy for the Return of 'iPhone Mania'?"

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, December 21, 2017

I’ve had a bunch of questions from readers this week about the latest ad from David Gardner’s Motley Fool Rule Breakers, so that’s our target today — what are they talking up as the “little known company” that is “allowing Apple to radically reshape the future of the iPhone?”

Here’s the part of the email ad that got my attention:

“… a tiny component is already taking the tech world by storm.

“It’s already powering products made by Google, Samsung, and LG…

“And now, Apple has gone all-in with this tech with their new game-changing iPhone.

“And the smartest minds on Wall Street are already sprinting to take advantage.

“JPMorgan is urging clients to act immediately, ‘before iPhone mania begins in earnest.’

“Because one small American company holds the key patents to this remarkable tech.”

Apple is a stock I’ve owned for a long time, and it has surprised me a bit with its continuing share price strength over the past few months — with shipments of the expensive new iPhone X being watched closely for possible disappointment, I thought we might see more weakness in the shares as folks take some profits ahead if folks begin to worry about the company’s continuing inability to exceed those peak earnings of 2015.

That hasn’t really happened, perhaps partly because of the tax benefits for Apple in the new tax reform bill (both the lower rate and the low-rate “tax holiday for repatriation” will likely provide income boosts for Apple, though they don’t pay anything close to the current corporate tax rate now), and Apple has bought back so many shares over the past few years that they’ve been able to keep some modest earnings per share growth rolling despite the relatively flat top-line numbers, so the shares are holding pretty steady near their all-time highs. And though analysts continue to sift through the tea leaves to and try to insert caution about whether demand is high enough to create another “supercycle” for the iPhone X, others remind us that demand still seems awfully robust (for what it’s worth, I bought an iPhone X and am very pleased with it so far).

So Apple sticks in my portfolio as a reasonably priced dividend-growth company, with a strong brand built on the world’s most successful consumer product, but it’s probably not a stock that’s likely to double in short order or provide dramatic returns from this price simply because of the challenge of discovering new growth avenues (though I wouldn’t have guessed at a 50% surge for AAPL this year, either, so that may be just me being too conservative). All Apple shares have to do now is rise another 12%, and they’ll be a trillion-dollar company, and that makes people worry about how much growth is still possible (though they had the same worries when it was a $300 billion company… people are emotional about such things).

Apple stock is no longer wildly cheaper than the market on a PE ratio basis, as it has been for most of the past five years, but it’s still about 25% cheaper (a forward PE of about 15, versus 20 for the S&P)… and, of course, because of it’s massive size, to some degree it is the market, and everyone owns shares (Apple is close to being 4% of the S&P 500, the index that most passive investors use and the measuring stick used to evaluate almost all money managers).

Which is all a long way of saying that those who are looking for exciting growth or the next stock that can move up hundreds or thousands of percent from here often look to the little suppliers who make Apple products possible, not to Apple itself. That has often worked in the past with these Apple “supercycles,” when new products create spikes in demand for particular components or chips — and over the past five years even the broad semiconductor index (as represented by the iShares PHLX Semi ETF) has dramatically outperformed Apple, led in part by some rapidly growing Apple suppliers like Broadcom, Skyworks Solutions and NXP Semiconductors.

So which supplier is David Gardner pointing the finger at for his Motley Fool Rule Breakers subscribers? Let’s check out our clues…

“A growing chorus of Wall Street insiders are calling for a once-in-a-decade Apple opportunity.

Forbes is calling it an ‘iPhone tsunami.’

“And JPMorgan is urging investors to ‘stock up now before iPhone mania begins in earnest.'”

All that chatter is from before the new iPhone was released, which is usually when optimism is highest, so we shouldn’t take it as all that current right now… but yes, part of the argument is that investors are underestimating the “iPhone super cycle” … here’s some more of the ad, which is about a David Gardner pick but is signed by Rex Moore, a Fool analyst:

“… one tiny American company is allowing Apple to radically change what the iPhone is capable of.

“And if you missed out on buying Apple stock before the iPhone… you need to hear this story.

“Because you’ll find out why this same remarkable company may be our second chance to get in on the ground floor of a smartphone revolution.”

And they mention the China aspect of the story as well — China is what fueled the last huge surge for iPhone sales, back in 2015, so that’s important:

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“… a new study from the Maxim Group found ‘significant pent-up demand’ for the new iPhone in China.

“It doesn’t always get the attention it deserves, but China is actually the world’s largest mobile phone market. And analysts are predicting a 170% increase in iPhone sales in China next year.”

And they make the same argument you’ll see quite often, that Apple is too big to grow as fast as the little guys:

“Apple is already an enormous company….it has the largest market cap on the S&P 500 by a significant margin. And that makes it really hard for Apple to generate the growth rates necessary to propel it to 10x returns over the next 10 years.

“And that’s why I’m so excited to tell you about a potentially more lucrative way to bet on the coming iPhone tidal wave….

“This under-the-radar powerhouse is more than 100 times smaller than Apple. So it still has plenty of room to run.”

And finally, we’re told that this time the supplier is not a chip company…

“… this company is the key behind the brand-new screen that has Apple insiders raving.

“This new screen has 3 huge advantages over previous iPhone screens.

“First, these screens are much thinner than the previous screens…which means that the new iPhone can have a bigger screen without taking up as much space in your pocket.

“Second, these screens are able to light individual pixels… which means that they don’t use as much power as LCD screens. And that means that you won’t need to charge the new phones as often as you had to charge previous iPhones.

“And finally, the new screens simply have higher picture quality. And that becomes more and more important as more and more people watch videos on their phones.”

And it’s not a brand-new company:

“David has been closely following this company for years. He first wrote about it publicly way back in 2005.”

What else are we told? That this little player has some kind of monopoly on the technology…

“It is the king of the mountain in a market that we think is about to explode.

“But the best part is that its dominant market position is protected by an enormous moat.

“And the company has two ways to cash in on this expanding market.

“Because it not only provides the parts, but it also controls a wide range of patents related to this remarkable screen technology.

“And that means that even if a giant player like Apple doesn’t want to buy products directly from this remarkable company…they would still have to pay a licensing fee.”

And like most royalty and license-earning companies, they’re pitched as being “toll road” owners in this space… and as suppliers to everyone else, too, so they are collecting fees from Alphabet and Samsung, too, not just Apple.

And, according to the pitch, they’re “predicting annual growth of 21% through 2020.”

So what’s the stock? Thinkolator sez we’re again being teased with Universal Display (OLED), the organic light-emitting diode company that is behind those fancy OLED screens, both supplying their patented technology and supplying the chemicals that make it possible.

And, of course, it’s not a surprise to Wall Street that these patents and the growing OLED marketplace of new phones are valuable… so OLED is not a cheap stock. It’s trading at about 88X trailing earnings, and the stock is within about 5% of its all-time highs. To ease your heart palpitations, you might have to go out a year or two — the forward PE is about 56, and the PE on 2019 forecasts is finally gets below 40 (just barely, at 39).

That makes it hard to buy for most of us, though certainly the business is growing rapidly (the 2018 revenues are expected to be double 2016’s), and high and rising margins mean each additional dollar of revenue adds substantially more to the profit.

And, frankly, it’s one of those stocks that has pretty much always been expensive — that’s not unusual for companies who get a lot of their earnings from license revenue or royalties, those “go straight to the bottom line” revenue inputs are adored by Wall Street (for good reason), and they mean that good revenue growth becomes dramatically better earnings growth.

They’ve had plenty of missteps along the way, largely related to adoption of their technology going slower than was hoped back in 2005… I owned a few shares of this one around then, too, but unlike David Gardner I didn’t hold on — his ability to sit through huge losses to eventually get those giant gains is one reason for his very successful overall record… you don’t get 10,000% winners without risking a lot of 90% losses, sometimes even in the same stocks (I’m looking at you, Amazon).

The stock has come up several times in the pages of Gumshoe — Nicholas Vardy was pitching them as an “iPhone Killer” stock back in 2011 in the $50s, after which the stock really floundered for about five years, and then it started to come back to life last year as more OLED phones came out — it was also teased by a different Motley Fool newsletter in the Spring of 2016, when the shares were in the $60s, and more recently it was touted by Michael Robinson over at Nova-X Report (I went more into OLED technology when covering that teaser, but was, unfortunately, too cautious about the valuation as I hoped for a weak earnings report… the stock has doubled since I wrote that piece in April).

So I’ve not been particularly brilliant at choosing the right price to buy this one, so take my “gosh it’s expensive” caution with a grain of salt… all I can really tell you is, yes, Motley Fool Rule Breakers is indeed pitching Universal Display in these ads, as they’ve been doing off and on for years, and it is a fast-growing company with an admirable business in OLED screen technology.

And with that, I’ll pass the baton to you, dear readers — perhaps one of you has followed this firm more closely, or understands it well and wants to opine… maybe you’ve already made millions on it and want to tell us that the ride is over, or is just beginning? Share your thoughts with a comment below.

Disclosure: I own shares of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Skyworks Solutions among the stocks mentioned above. I will not trade in any covered stock for at least three days, per Stock Gumshoe’s trading rules.

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Ken
Ken
December 21, 2017 4:44 pm

I got into OLED at about $85, it is now at $176.90. it swings wildly day to day but I have no plans to sell anytime soon. ymmv…

joe blow
Member
joe blow
June 28, 2018 6:46 am
Reply to  Ken

yikes. I hope you sold 🙂

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Caponsacchi
Guest
Caponsacchi
July 14, 2018 3:59 pm
Reply to  Ken

Early this year OLED (Universal Display) peaked at around $180, but by June it had dropped to $60 (but is showing a mild surge of late). I’ve sold some, kept some. Samsung has come out with a tweaked form they call QLED, which is brighter and more impactful at first sight. In strict lab tests OLED still comes out ahead, but both OLED and QLED must be seen on 60″ or larger screens with 4K capability for the human eye to see the advantage. On a tiny iPhone screen it’s a nice “bragging right”–but hardly a revolution. And Univ. Display has many rivals, incl. bigger fish. I see no reason to go wild on OLED the stock symbol, esp. after getting burned badly on several 3-D printer stocks. I’d be cautiously optimist with no more than 100 shares. Fool is one more source of info–like Yahoo, Schwab, Ameritrade, etc. but not definitive. I, too, refuse to pay the added freight to be a VIP client (if OLED is the ultimate, what’s to learn by paying hundreds more?). As for Apple, I started in ’03 and continue to accumulate. Even beyond the iPhone, it’s financing that is their strength, as I’ve met dozens of kids who “lease” their iPhones annually from Apple.

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jc1234xx
jc1234xx
December 21, 2017 6:11 pm

Actually, I’ve owned OLED for some time, but speaking of AAPL, my question is more related as to whether AAPL is a stock you would consider buying today Travis. I owned it a couple years ago and it just keeps on going……. and was recently downgraded. Ugh. Any thoughts?

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jc1234xx
jc1234xx
December 22, 2017 12:21 am

Not bad 🙂 I get it! Thanks.

BJI
Member
BJI
December 22, 2017 4:15 am

I own 70 shares AAPL purchased at $75 per. It is 30% 0f my self-directed ROTH IRA that is my attempt at out-performing my professionally managed IRA. This account is about 7% of my and my wife’s investments and will not, hopefully, be needed soon to continue living comfortably. SHOULD I HOLD ALL 70!!!??? Thanks.

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LostOkie
LostOkie
December 21, 2017 8:58 pm

Travis, the site having a problem today? I can’t log in.

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frank_n_steyn
Irregular
December 23, 2017 6:04 pm
Reply to  LostOkie

I couldn’t either, so I went to “join”, where it recognized my profile, and then allowed me to log in. Try it.

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Jim
Jim
December 21, 2017 10:00 pm

I’m a rule breaker subscriber and I have not seen any recent Re-recs for oled. Maybe I should read my own newsletter.

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jc1234xx
jc1234xx
December 22, 2017 12:19 am
Reply to  Jim

Look under “Bonus Reports” on the RB home page.

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Ginger Molina
Guest
Ginger Molina
March 30, 2018 5:14 pm
Reply to  Jim

That would be great, I joined Motel Fool and can’t afford to keep paying for all the news of money making stocks of theirs. I thought when I joined I would get all that but for another price every time. Nothing about new ground breaking stocks that could make me money. Please feel free to let us know what the Rules Breaker said. I didnt ser it either.
Ginger

SageNot
Member
SageNot
December 21, 2017 10:45 pm

Kinda late for Tom & David to invest in, what took so long?

senior111
senior111
December 22, 2017 10:23 pm
Reply to  SageNot

I found Dave and Tom are behind the curve and that their rec’d stocks are either at their zenith or near all time high.. I will not buy any stock that is 10% close to its all time.
The rationale is quiet simple, what are the probabilities of going higher vs going lower especially in this market..

lately I have taken to short certain stocks that are not very good performers. I am waiting for a 15% correction , and looking for a bigger one in BTC.

Merry Christmas to all and happy investing next year

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gstrout987
gstrout987
December 23, 2017 12:13 am

FWIW –
Morningstar’s model estimates OLED’s share value as of 12/22 between $138 and $101.
Simply Wall St. estimates the share value as of 12/22 based on a DCF model between $90 – $60.

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rodger27
Irregular
December 23, 2017 4:30 pm

Motley Fool has been recommending OLED for years and uses it as teaser stock in their recent ads. For the last five weeks OLED is the top stock in Investor Business Daily top 50. The IBD 50 has a good record in an up markets see
. I hope and have bet on a continuing up market in general and for OLED in particular.

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john
Member
john
January 5, 2018 9:58 am

I have a tech background, so may fall for tech arguments. For OLED, the premise is simple: gadzillions of cell phones are being sold to zillions of people in asia, world. OLED supposedly has a lock on organic led screens, and theses screens supposedly have such advantages, OLEDF will benefit enormously.
Where does the hype end and reality begin? I don’t personally know enough about oled screens and their strategic importance to say.
I did do a superficial search on the web, and was not impressed with the stated reasons: oled’s are flexible and brighter than LCD. More research is needed.
I have seen David Gardner go off the deep end on some technical issues.

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John Hoskins
Member
John Hoskins
January 5, 2018 10:07 am

see below

John Hoskins
Member
John Hoskins
January 5, 2018 10:08 am

I thought I’d subscribe to Rule Breakers and found they were touting Shopify (SHOP), not OLED.

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backoffice
Irregular
February 21, 2018 3:28 pm

Here we are almost at the end of February and the big new I-phone play is indeed $OLED- Universal Display. I was hoping for something a bit cheaper, but this is David’s recommendation .

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Makatol
Guest
Makatol
February 27, 2018 9:42 pm
Reply to  backoffice

Just wondering if the guys at RB are just recycling an old idea from David G, without a thorough evaluation. Seems to me that the stock has been sliding, over $200 in January, $130 today, which tells me that something probably changed in Jan wrt patents or competition or something like that. Putting money into a falling stock without knowing why it is falling would be plain stupid. For the record I have followed RB’s for years and used to have a lot of faith in David’s recommendations, but lately I notice that the ones in the newsletters are often just old recycled recommendations, and do not even appear on the disclosure list of stocks he owns. Not the sort of thing to fill anyone with confidence, which is why I have not renewed my subscription for a while. I;m wondering of others share my sentiment.

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Pete
Guest
Pete
March 3, 2018 9:33 am

Hi, Based on MF recommendation, I got into OLED @150.00 and now it is trading 123. Not sure If I should hold it or get out of this position. Any thoughts?

Ivan
Guest
Ivan
March 8, 2018 6:49 am
Reply to  Pete

I am in the same situation.

Mike
Member
Mike
June 16, 2018 1:57 pm

Zacks has OLED with an underperform rating, as does Columbine Capital Services, ValuEngine and Institutional Shareholders Services. And both Ford Equity Research and Jefferson Research have a sell on the stock. Maybe these companies don’t know anything, but I would rather put my money in either a company that is getting buyout offers, or those with a highly bullish rating on Fidelity.

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Sheryl
Guest
Sheryl
July 9, 2018 10:29 am

What about BTOP, Recall Studios? Any positive buying them?

Clinton Gallagher
Guest
July 28, 2018 12:03 pm

The emergence of super accurate GPS [1] in cellphones is in my view going to usher in a tsunami of new product development. Broadcom Inc (AVGO) is a stock to own in the next few years. Everything that can be integrated with a GPS receiver will be integrated with a GPS receiver.

New inexpensive stock offerings from emergent startups with products and services built around GPS will show up everywhere.

The law of unintended consequences suggests police will be so inundated with demands to recover stolen property it will become a national embarassment when it becomes apparent that they do not have the foot soldiers to respond; that in itself may also give rise to new ways to make money.

Get out your credit cards and stand ready…

[1] https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/semiconductors/design/superaccurate-gps-chips-coming-to-smartphones-in-2018

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Ron Hartley
Member
Ron Hartley
March 31, 2019 5:53 pm

I like how you dissected the sales pitch and then came up with the stock. True “GumShoe” work. I will be curious to see how it pans out. I was thinking it was Lumen.

Thanks for the great insight!

cardano465e
Member
cardano465e
May 3, 2019 10:51 pm

Hello all Gum shoer’s, OLED is at $170.33 I thought this was a small company?
I thought it might be affordable. But I’m going to have to leave it for the 1%er’s.
Let them make some more money off the little guy again it just doesn’t ever end.
Thank-You
FRANK8MORRISS

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