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“I Bet You $117,238.20 That This Stock Explodes in 2013” (Motley Fool’s “Get Rich on Wednesday” Pick)

Which Dave Gardner pick is Jeremy Phillips Buying?

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, February 4, 2013

Now THIS is a fun ad. Jeremy Phillips is the Chief Technology Officer at the Motley Fool, and he starts off their new ad with a great quote: “I plan to get rich on Wednesday morning — care to join me?”

Well … yeah. Isn’t that why we’re all fretting over our investments, saving precious dollars, and building strong opinions about the balance sheets and business prospects of every company we run across in our daily lives?

OK, so some of us are not entirely obsessed — but yes, most folks who buy stocks are hoping to get rich … and if we’re honest with ourselves, we want to get rich fast. Sometimes with real hope built on great stock selection, patience, portfolio allocation and counterintuitive thinking, sometimes with the same plans that a dart player makes as he steps to the line. So what is Jeremy Phillips talking about?

Usually we hear from folks who pick stocks and edit newsletters, the guys who delve into income statements and make forecasts and stand naked with their portfolio before the world. But Phillips isn’t an investment guy, he runs the Fool’s website and servers and makes sure all that stuff works for their gajillions of readers.

But he says he’s taking an idea that Tom and Dave Gardner have both recommended, and he’s running with it — putting a huge slug of his own money on the line. Here’s how he tells the tale:

“I can’t wait for Wednesday morning.

“Because I’ve just made the most important financial decision of my life. And starting in just 96 hours, I’ll see if I was right…

“If I win my bet, this stock will make a big pile of money for me by the end of 2013.

“If I lose, it’ll remain near its current bargain price. Maybe even under it. And I’ll be out some (but not all) of my $117,238. Meanwhile, I’ll still own stock in a company with a rock solid business model — one that’s poised to dominate a $130 billion market, with no direct competition.

“That’s why I don’t want you to bet against me. I want you to bet with me…

“Place YOUR OWN bet on this stock. At whatever amount you’re comfortable investing. That way YOU can win if and when I do.

“Look, I wouldn’t be putting $117,238 of my own cash on the table if I wasn’t dead serious about this opportunity. That’s a lot of money for me… in fact, it’s FIVE times the investment I have in any of my current stocks!”

I’ve never bought a stock that made the top five list of “most important financial decisions of my life”, so I may be a bit too much of a fuddy duddy to appreciate this — but I do have outsized positions in stocks that I really have strong feelings about, so I can imagine how it feels to buy a stock position that’s far larger than any you’ve bought in the past. Whether or not Phillips is right, it seems he really believes in this stock that he thinks has the opportunity to take over a $130 billion sector.

Will you agree with him? Well, before you make that call you’ll have to know the name of the stock so you can do your own research. So, assuming you don’t want to pony up a couple hundred bucks to subscribe to Rule Breakers to get your answer … what else do we get by way of clues so we can pin the tail on this donkey a bit more free-ishly?

“In a nutshell…

  • This company’s revenue is growing more than 2x as fast as Google and Facebook. And more than 3x as fast as Amazon.com and Apple.
  • In fact, more than 59,000 of Apple’s own employees use its core product. Many of them every day.
  • The Wall Street Journal named this stock the ‘biggest internet IPO since Google.’
  • This company has a foothold in over 200 countries, with more than 200 million users.
  • But they’re adding two new members per second. That’s right, by the time you finish reading this sentence, they’ll add 10 new people to their system!”

Well, the only reason this was the “biggest internet IPO since Google” was because it happened before Facebook came public … for what it’s worth, the Wall Street Journal and similar sources also called out disasters Zynga and Groupon with similar “Biggest since Google” headlines. And at the time they were the biggest IPOs in the sector since Google … not the best businesses, obviously, nor the biggest technological advancements, but the companies that got the highest valuation from the stock market.

So yes, that’s enough for us to figure out who this company is … but we’ll keep you in suspense for just a moment longer while we excerpt a few more of the clues from the ad about this company’s businesses:

“Business Segment #1: 74 million Americans just like you and me

“People of all ages who are looking for a better job, to meet new business partners, or to find employees who are a perfect fit for their company. The more of them that join, the more that others want to join too, and the more incentive they all have to keep using it, and to pay for premium features. That’s called the ‘network effect’ and it’s been the engine of growth for every business from AT&T in the 1920s to Microsoft in the 1990s to Facebook in the 2010s.

“Business Segment #2: Madison Avenue

“As Google has proven with its great success in recent years, the ‘Mad Men’ era of advertising is over. Today’s Don Drapers use ‘narrow-casting’ opportunities instead of mass media broadcasting to get more bang for their buck. And they also cherry pick their best customers… like this company’s users, who average more than $100,000 a year in income. Advertisers will pay almost anything to get access to folks like that.

“Business Segment #3: The global ‘war’ for high-tech talent

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“Better employees with better skills and better fit mean more profit. But some of the top talent is ‘hidden’… in other countries, in employees who aren’t actively job-searching but would jump at a compelling offer, or in traditional résumés that emphasize college old-boy networks instead of actual money-making skills.

“The Economist calls it ‘the battle for brainpower.’ McKinsey Consulting calls it “the global war for talent.” But whatever you call it, it’s what will separate great businesses from bankrupt ones in the decades to come, and our Rule Breaker stock is the best ‘pure play’ out there for investing in it.”

So who is it? Yes, the Thinkolator confirms that the stock Jeremy Phillips is betting big on is LinkedIn (LNKD), the professional-focused social networking service that’s also building a recruiting “matchmaking” business on the backs of their 200 million or so members.

You’ve probably heard LinkedIn talked up before — as the social networking company with a business model, a contrast to Facebook’s “gather a billion people then we’ll figure out how to turn that into a business” strategy. There’s a lot of money in employment advertising, as we found when Craigslist, CareerBuilder and Monster.com started to sound the death knell for newspaper help wanted ads several years ago.

Is it enough money to make LinkedIn a great business? Well, I’m sure Jeremy Phillips and the Gardner brothers know LinkedIn far better than I do — the ad says that Dave Gardner has recommended the stock twice, and that Tom Gardner personally has it as his largest stock position, and it’s true that in the past when Dave (Mr. Growth) and Tom (Mr. Value) have agreed on a stock, it has often done very, very well.

Me? I don’t like LinkedIn. That’s just a personal response to the product — I have used it a bit, I find it to be of little value and it seems to me to be full of the bland interview chatter and irritating impersonal connection-making that you see in any networking cocktail party. I also don’t like the cocktail parties, despite my fondness for cocktails.

But that has nothing to do with whether LinkedIn is a good investment, it just means I’ve never gotten around to using it very much and I’ve not felt compelled to really examine it as an investment.

LinkedIn does report this week (though according to Yahoo Finance it’s actually on Thursday, not Wednesday morning as the teaser suggests), and it is growing like gangbusters — but it’s also really, really, really expensive by almost any valuation metric you can come up with. That’s a positive criteria for the Rule Breakers service, they like to pick stocks that the conventional media thinks are overvalued, because most great market-changing growth stocks have been called “too expensive” by the financial media at some point… and philosophically I can understand that, but it still makes it really, really hard for me to buy stocks that carry a forward PE of 100.

If they can keep up this earnings growth, they may well be able to grow into that kind of valuation — they’ve just about doubled earnings in almost every quarter they’ve reported as a public company (they went public in the Spring of 2011), and the stock has more than doubled since the IPO (the IPO priced at $45 but the stock doubled on that first day, it has since been volatile traded down to about $60, but not for long, and is now above $120).

The basic business (I don’t use it, remember) is to help people make professional connections — sharing resumes and networking tips instead of going on Facebook to share pictures of cute cats and drunk teenagers. And it apparently works quite well, they can indeed sell to three different distinct groups: Advertisers who want to reach well-paid professionals, job-seekers who want upgraded memberships to help with resume building and connection-making, and recruiting officers who want to find qualified employees. So there is a great business case to be made for the company, and a reasonable projection that they could become an even bigger player in the HR and recruiting business … I just have no idea whether it can or will grow big enough, fast enough, to justify the current valuation. For that, you’ll have to make your own call.

If recruiting is indeed a $130 billion business, which sounds like a reasonable estimate (you can get different estimates from different folks in the personnel business, but it is a big sector), and you think that LNKD can become a real linchpin of the business, then there’s certainly enough money out there for them to become far larger — it’s a $13 billion business right now (that’s the market capitalization), with less than a billion dollars in annual revenue, so there is a big potential runway.

The free summary of Morningstar’s take on this stock sums up my initial reaction to the company pretty well:

“In the market for social networking, no company currently monetizes its user base better than LinkedIn. With an attractive business model and a user base that may never leave, this wide-moat firm is one of the few social Internet companies to truly hold a defensible position, in our view. We hope the market’s unbridled optimism subsides and the stock becomes cheap enough for us to recommend.”

So that’s how I’m feeling after my few minutes of checking out LNKD — great business, too expensive even after reliably doubling their earnings nearly every quarter. How about you? What do you think about LNKD or about the LinkedIn services? Ready to ride this to the next great internet fortune, or will it end up disappointing those who bought in with unbridled optimism? Let us know with a comment below

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Roger Q Callaway
Roger Q Callaway
February 4, 2013 2:35 pm

Facebook’s main useful use is for groups of friends to keep track of each other, so they can decide where they should meet to drink.

Irwin ironstone
Member
Irwin ironstone
February 4, 2013 2:42 pm

I was on it today. I would who I was looking for, but could not send an email to her. also, I could not leave a message. I then got off, po’ed went to the net, got her business address, and sent her an email and got a response in 2 hours or less. And they wanted me to pay for an email to her???
after I typed in an email, then they ask… just got me more upset. If that is their business model… it is missing something..

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Tom Steele
Member
February 4, 2013 5:36 pm

So if I’m reading this right, everyone here thinks Facebook is for finding drinking buddies and linked in is less than useless? But even though none of you use them, you feel very qualified to comment on their value as stocks and to discern whether their business models are going to be profitable? Interesting…

It is particularly odd to me, as I use fb personally to keep up with friends and family, and while I don’t use linked in as a recruiting tool, I do use it frequently to find local business people to do business with in various projects.

Even on a personal level, I needed a car dealership to do something with my car so I popped on linked in, got the email address of my service manager, sent an email and set things up. I bypassed the dealership red tape and had an enjoyable experience with someone who treated me as a business partner instead of a customer.

In my experience, linked in and Facebook are UP TO YOU how you choose to use them. If you are imaginative, innovative and creative then you can find ways to use the information (that’s all they are folks, information) made available to you through these tools in ways that allow you to accomplish your goals more easily.

Or you can sit around like grandparents and complain about everything you think is wrong with them, which has no real bearing on whether they are good investments.

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Roger Bond
Member
February 4, 2013 6:49 pm
Reply to  Tom Steele

Tom,
[I had a Tom Steele as a teacher MANY years ago, great guy]
It’s refreshing to see a post like yours which is:
– Well articulated
– Formatted for easy reading
– Spell checked

While I have never used LinkIn enough to have said I gave it a fair try, I was frustrated right off the bat with their email suggestions and difficulty to find what I needed.

As for Facebook, I primarily use it as a business tool, though not highly effective. I really do see where friends and family COULD use it to keep in touch over long distances. Unfortunately, FB has done such an incredibly rotten job of respecting users privacy and making privacy controls easy to understand and use that many have given up on it.

[Zuckerberg’s public decree that privacy should be abandoned have not helped FB’s popularity with generations older than 30 years old]

Ultimately, though, I agree with you that it is up to each person how a service like that is used.

Best,
Roger.

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savethemanatee
savethemanatee
February 5, 2013 10:15 am
Reply to  Tom Steele

Hello Tom,
Yes, Facebook and LinkedIn have some utility, but that (by itself) doesn’t make them particularly good companies to invest in. GeoCities was fun and somewhat useful, too, if you’re old enough to remember them. . . .

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Bob
Guest
Bob
February 4, 2013 6:37 pm

NOOOOOO! I already own LinkedIn! What fun is that???
Its been a great stock and I expect it to be for a very long time.

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Dennis
Irregular
February 4, 2013 8:14 pm

I have been a long time Linkedin user and keep in touch with people i have worked with over the years and have submitted recommendations for several people. I enjoy it and see the value, but would never buy the stock. One of the ways they earn money is to get members to their premium services which i have not done and never will. This site has more value for people seeking employment.

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John
Irregular
John
February 4, 2013 10:34 pm

Travis
Can you give advice whether nuance communication inc is worth investing in

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rkatz0
Member
February 4, 2013 10:57 pm
Reply to  John

Revenue growth seems steady up. Stats look like there could be plenty of room for price increase:
Price/Sales Price/Sales (ttm): 4.59
Price/Book (mrq): 2.78
The curve looks like it may have grown and corrected already, however, hard to tell whether it peaked or is about to shoot up from here:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=NUAN+Interactive#symbol=nuan;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The software they produce is very interesting, Dragon, Paperport, though earlier versions of Paperport got buggy a few years back I believe they corrected it since then. The label of Communications company is interesting in the stock profile, I believe most of their revenues are software. If I wanted more tech in my portfolio I would consider it, however, would look at competitors and other types of software that could have same or more potential before buying a position.

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rkatz0
Member
February 4, 2013 10:58 pm
Reply to  John

Travis?

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Zaydac
Guest
Zaydac
February 5, 2013 5:38 am
Reply to  John
rkatz0
Member
February 5, 2013 6:46 am
Reply to  Zaydac

Oh yeah! Forgot about that, Travis has a hard time getting excited about NUAN, it is a software company, decent growth, not much to be excited about. They are on the cutting edge of the niche technologies but looks like limited growth potential, I agree, nothing that leads me to believe there will be exponential returns. My first answer (above) stands.

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minumatt
Member
minumatt
February 6, 2013 1:16 am

Bought LNKD sometime back, still holding it.
With the recent trends in FB & ZNGA, Got both of them, will hold for next few years to see which way they swing..

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Sean
Guest
Sean
February 7, 2013 8:28 pm

Linked in is a very useful website! All of my business contacts are here, I don’t have to maintain an address book or keep track of anyone’s email address. Everyone updates their own info. If there is someone I want to talk to and he/she is not a contact, I always know someone who knows them, (which the site tells you). I have 500+ contacts and it’s an invaluable tool. The stock is crazy expensive though, so not sure if I will buy any…. I am a MF member though and am really happy with their service, although their pitch emails really really turn me off.

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Feddie
February 8, 2013 7:30 am

Yes indeed. One curious thing is that I received the Jeremy Phillips pitch yesterday with the headline “I plan to get rich on Monday morning” and never received the “Get Rich on Wednesday” one.

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Terence
Guest
Terence
February 8, 2013 5:40 pm

Well, looks like the Motley fool got one right for a change – up 25% today 🙂

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tanglewood
February 9, 2013 10:09 pm

This is proof that the Internet bubble is back. Revenues in millions for the last 4 quarters working back are 303.6, 252,228 and 188 and earnings per share are .35,.02, .03 and .05.

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Roger
February 10, 2013 11:40 pm

Hi Folks – what about some options on this, so we don’t have to “invest” a lot of money? Next Jan 2014 $190 were $2, now they’ve jumped to $7! Once they drop a little, (if they do), might be a good opportunity? cheers, Roger B

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Hugh Boylan
Guest
Hugh Boylan
February 10, 2013 11:51 pm

I have to agree with the many negative comments regarding FB (I also receive frequent “invitations” to join LNKD from friends of mine who would not dream of asking me to join.

Facebook represents, par excellence, the utter blandness of modern civilization, with its assumption that we are all interested in these deeply banal details of one’s daily life.

My profile on FB is a tissue of lies, since I say I was born in Russia, about 5000 miles from where I was actually born. As a result, the right hand side of my FB page is, I notice on those infrequent occasions when I tread in the bs of that site, full of advertisements in RUSSIAN.
Dasvidanya.

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gijo
Member
gijo
February 11, 2013 5:59 am

meetme.com claims they are a social discovery company, I wonder how different their business model is from facebook?

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Tom Barron
Member
Tom Barron
February 11, 2013 9:36 am

Reading a review on LNKD from another source this morning and they noted that forward PE is 1,000. As another commenter mentioned they also pointed out that many have signed up for an account but few are actually using. Their recommendation was to either short or sell puts. Not sure I am that brave yet but an interesting thought.

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olivan leach
February 11, 2013 11:07 am

Terence I am not going too disagree with Motley Fool that LNKD is and will give us a pos. pop,but is it a stock you want to buy and look the other way on. You could very well look back and see your money heading out the door or just plan gone. I know the fact that 2000 and the end of the internet bubble has a lot to do with our feelings. I didn’t get hurt to bad back than because I wasn’t that deep into the internet dream. I do know some people who I thought had better sense who lost 100’s of thousands of dollars. My wife’s uncle lost over 100 thousand bucks while he was on a trip to west Tx. from La. over a matter of two days. He had worked for BP and others for 30 plus years and he took a buy out in the 90’s and lost all that and more in that mess. He is just one of many that I know so when I put money on a stock I like to feel that I can invest and carry on with life and not worry my self to an early grave worry about it taking wings and flying out the door. I am smart enough to know that any co. can go belly up in this world,but you will see or hear signs that its going bust. To me real investing is buying some thing real that makes some thing real and over time makes you real money. I know I want get rich in the market,but I want see a ton of money go into thin air on some gamble. If I want to gamble I buy a lottery ticket or go to some form of gambling house.
Good luck happy investing to all.

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Thane
Member
Thane
February 11, 2013 11:43 am

See my post above. I followed through and added 20 more shares. Also bought a 130 call for $2. Planning to hold my shares long term and sold the call for $16. Wish I would have bought more than 1 contract, but $200 was all I was willing to gamble with.

solyom
Member
solyom
February 11, 2013 4:06 pm

Good company but poor stock. My valuation (I judge them to be about 10–40% low) is about 55->60. Sometimes a good well run company sets expectations of investors so high that no manager can meet them. I sometimes look for a company that was poor run (investor expectations low) that now has a new highly regarded CEO at the helm. Apple years ago is example.

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Miami33152
Miami33152
February 11, 2013 5:58 pm

Based on this article, I reasearch LNKD and bought 20 Mar Calls for $5000., expecting a 3% to 5% return for the week. The stock gapped up 20% after reporting earnings and I sold for $17,000. profit that day. Thanks Travis for spotlighting this article. I don’t consider LNKD a good Buy to Hold stock as I don’t care for social media stocks for that purpose, but this was a pure speculation play, not for the faint of heart. This AD from The Fool was pure pump and seems to have gotten attention. Also, there was a large spread of Put’s, which squeezed the bears as they ran for the doors at opening Friday morning.

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