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“I Bet You $117,238.20 That This Stock Explodes in 2013” (Motley Fool’s “Get Rich on Wednesday” Pick)

Which Dave Gardner pick is Jeremy Phillips Buying?

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, February 4, 2013

Now THIS is a fun ad. Jeremy Phillips is the Chief Technology Officer at the Motley Fool, and he starts off their new ad with a great quote: “I plan to get rich on Wednesday morning — care to join me?”

Well … yeah. Isn’t that why we’re all fretting over our investments, saving precious dollars, and building strong opinions about the balance sheets and business prospects of every company we run across in our daily lives?

OK, so some of us are not entirely obsessed — but yes, most folks who buy stocks are hoping to get rich … and if we’re honest with ourselves, we want to get rich fast. Sometimes with real hope built on great stock selection, patience, portfolio allocation and counterintuitive thinking, sometimes with the same plans that a dart player makes as he steps to the line. So what is Jeremy Phillips talking about?

Usually we hear from folks who pick stocks and edit newsletters, the guys who delve into income statements and make forecasts and stand naked with their portfolio before the world. But Phillips isn’t an investment guy, he runs the Fool’s website and servers and makes sure all that stuff works for their gajillions of readers.

But he says he’s taking an idea that Tom and Dave Gardner have both recommended, and he’s running with it — putting a huge slug of his own money on the line. Here’s how he tells the tale:

“I can’t wait for Wednesday morning.

“Because I’ve just made the most important financial decision of my life. And starting in just 96 hours, I’ll see if I was right…

“If I win my bet, this stock will make a big pile of money for me by the end of 2013.

“If I lose, it’ll remain near its current bargain price. Maybe even under it. And I’ll be out some (but not all) of my $117,238. Meanwhile, I’ll still own stock in a company with a rock solid business model — one that’s poised to dominate a $130 billion market, with no direct competition.

“That’s why I don’t want you to bet against me. I want you to bet with me…

“Place YOUR OWN bet on this stock. At whatever amount you’re comfortable investing. That way YOU can win if and when I do.

“Look, I wouldn’t be putting $117,238 of my own cash on the table if I wasn’t dead serious about this opportunity. That’s a lot of money for me… in fact, it’s FIVE times the investment I have in any of my current stocks!”

I’ve never bought a stock that made the top five list of “most important financial decisions of my life”, so I may be a bit too much of a fuddy duddy to appreciate this — but I do have outsized positions in stocks that I really have strong feelings about, so I can imagine how it feels to buy a stock position that’s far larger than any you’ve bought in the past. Whether or not Phillips is right, it seems he really believes in this stock that he thinks has the opportunity to take over a $130 billion sector.

Will you agree with him? Well, before you make that call you’ll have to know the name of the stock so you can do your own research. So, assuming you don’t want to pony up a couple hundred bucks to subscribe to Rule Breakers to get your answer … what else do we get by way of clues so we can pin the tail on this donkey a bit more free-ishly?

“In a nutshell…

  • This company’s revenue is growing more than 2x as fast as Google and Facebook. And more than 3x as fast as Amazon.com and Apple.
  • In fact, more than 59,000 of Apple’s own employees use its core product. Many of them every day.
  • The Wall Street Journal named this stock the ‘biggest internet IPO since Google.’
  • This company has a foothold in over 200 countries, with more than 200 million users.
  • But they’re adding two new members per second. That’s right, by the time you finish reading this sentence, they’ll add 10 new people to their system!”

Well, the only reason this was the “biggest internet IPO since Google” was because it happened before Facebook came public … for what it’s worth, the Wall Street Journal and similar sources also called out disasters Zynga and Groupon with similar “Biggest since Google” headlines. And at the time they were the biggest IPOs in the sector since Google … not the best businesses, obviously, nor the biggest technological advancements, but the companies that got the highest valuation from the stock market.

So yes, that’s enough for us to figure out who this company is … but we’ll keep you in suspense for just a moment longer while we excerpt a few more of the clues from the ad about this company’s businesses:

“Business Segment #1: 74 million Americans just like you and me

“People of all ages who are looking for a better job, to meet new business partners, or to find employees who are a perfect fit for their company. The more of them that join, the more that others want to join too, and the more incentive they all have to keep using it, and to pay for premium features. That’s called the ‘network effect’ and it’s been the engine of growth for every business from AT&T in the 1920s to Microsoft in the 1990s to Facebook in the 2010s.

“Business Segment #2: Madison Avenue

“As Google has proven with its great success in recent years, the ‘Mad Men’ era of advertising is over. Today’s Don Drapers use ‘narrow-casting’ opportunities instead of mass media broadcasting to get more bang for their buck. And they also cherry pick their best customers… like this company’s users, who average more than $100,000 a year in income. Advertisers will pay almost anything to get access to folks like that.

“Business Segment #3: The global ‘war’ for high-tech talent

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“Better employees with better skills and better fit mean more profit. But some of the top talent is ‘hidden’… in other countries, in employees who aren’t actively job-searching but would jump at a compelling offer, or in traditional résumés that emphasize college old-boy networks instead of actual money-making skills.

“The Economist calls it ‘the battle for brainpower.’ McKinsey Consulting calls it “the global war for talent.” But whatever you call it, it’s what will separate great businesses from bankrupt ones in the decades to come, and our Rule Breaker stock is the best ‘pure play’ out there for investing in it.”

So who is it? Yes, the Thinkolator confirms that the stock Jeremy Phillips is betting big on is LinkedIn (LNKD), the professional-focused social networking service that’s also building a recruiting “matchmaking” business on the backs of their 200 million or so members.

You’ve probably heard LinkedIn talked up before — as the social networking company with a business model, a contrast to Facebook’s “gather a billion people then we’ll figure out how to turn that into a business” strategy. There’s a lot of money in employment advertising, as we found when Craigslist, CareerBuilder and Monster.com started to sound the death knell for newspaper help wanted ads several years ago.

Is it enough money to make LinkedIn a great business? Well, I’m sure Jeremy Phillips and the Gardner brothers know LinkedIn far better than I do — the ad says that Dave Gardner has recommended the stock twice, and that Tom Gardner personally has it as his largest stock position, and it’s true that in the past when Dave (Mr. Growth) and Tom (Mr. Value) have agreed on a stock, it has often done very, very well.

Me? I don’t like LinkedIn. That’s just a personal response to the product — I have used it a bit, I find it to be of little value and it seems to me to be full of the bland interview chatter and irritating impersonal connection-making that you see in any networking cocktail party. I also don’t like the cocktail parties, despite my fondness for cocktails.

But that has nothing to do with whether LinkedIn is a good investment, it just means I’ve never gotten around to using it very much and I’ve not felt compelled to really examine it as an investment.

LinkedIn does report this week (though according to Yahoo Finance it’s actually on Thursday, not Wednesday morning as the teaser suggests), and it is growing like gangbusters — but it’s also really, really, really expensive by almost any valuation metric you can come up with. That’s a positive criteria for the Rule Breakers service, they like to pick stocks that the conventional media thinks are overvalued, because most great market-changing growth stocks have been called “too expensive” by the financial media at some point… and philosophically I can understand that, but it still makes it really, really hard for me to buy stocks that carry a forward PE of 100.

If they can keep up this earnings growth, they may well be able to grow into that kind of valuation — they’ve just about doubled earnings in almost every quarter they’ve reported as a public company (they went public in the Spring of 2011), and the stock has more than doubled since the IPO (the IPO priced at $45 but the stock doubled on that first day, it has since been volatile traded down to about $60, but not for long, and is now above $120).

The basic business (I don’t use it, remember) is to help people make professional connections — sharing resumes and networking tips instead of going on Facebook to share pictures of cute cats and drunk teenagers. And it apparently works quite well, they can indeed sell to three different distinct groups: Advertisers who want to reach well-paid professionals, job-seekers who want upgraded memberships to help with resume building and connection-making, and recruiting officers who want to find qualified employees. So there is a great business case to be made for the company, and a reasonable projection that they could become an even bigger player in the HR and recruiting business … I just have no idea whether it can or will grow big enough, fast enough, to justify the current valuation. For that, you’ll have to make your own call.

If recruiting is indeed a $130 billion business, which sounds like a reasonable estimate (you can get different estimates from different folks in the personnel business, but it is a big sector), and you think that LNKD can become a real linchpin of the business, then there’s certainly enough money out there for them to become far larger — it’s a $13 billion business right now (that’s the market capitalization), with less than a billion dollars in annual revenue, so there is a big potential runway.

The free summary of Morningstar’s take on this stock sums up my initial reaction to the company pretty well:

“In the market for social networking, no company currently monetizes its user base better than LinkedIn. With an attractive business model and a user base that may never leave, this wide-moat firm is one of the few social Internet companies to truly hold a defensible position, in our view. We hope the market’s unbridled optimism subsides and the stock becomes cheap enough for us to recommend.”

So that’s how I’m feeling after my few minutes of checking out LNKD — great business, too expensive even after reliably doubling their earnings nearly every quarter. How about you? What do you think about LNKD or about the LinkedIn services? Ready to ride this to the next great internet fortune, or will it end up disappointing those who bought in with unbridled optimism? Let us know with a comment below

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Charlie
Guest
Charlie
February 11, 2013 6:44 pm

I use Linkedin. A couple of things to consider. 1. Your page is like any other web site, if you want to be noticed by recruiters, you need to spend time translating your resume into a keyword oriented page that highlights your skills and experience level. LinkedIn has the potential to run rings around the resume oriented recruiting sites. LInkedIn is trying to encourage frequent updates and additions by its users that makes a static resume a weak competitor. Recruiters who are looking to poach a particular skill from a competitor have never had it easier to find that person. 2. The site is a classic example of freemium pricing. Individuals get quite a bit for free and the additional functions that paying up costs are mostly not worth it for most users I know. The companies that have accounts are more interested in paying since it gives them access to the search tools to go poach that next tech professional they need. They cost justify it as their recruiter can find the person and save them 25 to 50 thousand in commissions that outside recruiters would charge them. One hire found on Linkedin easily pays for the cost of member ship and then some. 3. Revenue growth will come from companies willing to pay. I would guess the biggest companies are already on board. So when does US revenue growth hit the wall as they dig deeper into the smaller companies with less frequent hiring needs. They are also looking at Europe and Asia for growth, so if they figure it out the revenue could grow for awhile. It just isn’t going to come from basic users. I subscribe to MF Stock Advisor. Mostly happy with it and wish there were fewer teaser emails (as if they don’t know I already subscribe).

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Crab
Guest
Crab
February 26, 2013 9:53 pm

Buffet does not have a FB ac, wise if you think LKND is nerd too! This Jeremy dude ia going to hate by fool’s investors big time!

Rick H.
Guest
Rick H.
November 28, 2013 8:07 am
Reply to  Crab

Should of listened.

Russell
Guest
March 2, 2013 11:03 am

Thank you for the rundown, makes sense. Nothing is guaranteed, you must do your own research, and clearly these guys are using this to peddle their service, so they have a conflict of interest. That said, apparently they do believe in this stock, but they are not fully disclosant they quote all the gains, but not the losses. And in the email blast give no indication of their funds true performance/returns, relative to other known benchmarks. If you are real, and honest you give the data, on annual returns your fund made each yr, and don’t try to bs.

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glawson
Member
glawson
March 2, 2013 12:09 pm

Gumshoe is very good. I just started reading the info on this email because I just got the email from Motley Fool today. Wow, guess the original went out weeks ago…. about 4 to be exact, back then is was $120, now $170…who would have thought. Could have would have should have jumped in back then…. Oh I wish I had a crystal ball… 50% increase…
man o man.

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Deezy
Guest
Deezy
March 28, 2013 10:33 am

Wow, I just got the email today and LNKD has indeed gone up a fair bit since the article.
Hmmm… A P/E of 900+ though. Pfwhoar.

midasone
midasone
April 9, 2013 1:21 pm
Reply to  Deezy

I’m really quite novice at investing. Do you think there is still time to profit from LNKD.

Steve
Guest
Steve
May 15, 2013 3:35 pm

I had 2,500 shares and LNKD beat earnings but gave weaker guidance going forward. Stock went down $26 plus and I lost about $60,000 of my hard earned cash.

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Lewis
Guest
Lewis
May 18, 2013 10:23 pm

I enjoyed your review of Jeremy Phillips’ video. By the time the video was done I was sure I would be buying some secret oil or potion that hopefully grew hair. LinkedIn is a funny site. You feel you need to be on it IF you are unemployed. Otherwise it’s nerdy. Way too much junk on it. It had early on promise of what professionals would want. Now it’s just another Facebook without pizzazz. I did not buy the stock when it started and I don’t believe in it nor Facebook. The social sites look to be easily overtaken by tomorrow’s new fad. But I could be wrong. Anyways as far as Jeremey and what he sells – there is enough free resources out ther like this one so there is no need to make others rich when you can get the data free. Isn’t that what the Internet IS the about!

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GTThompson
Guest
GTThompson
May 19, 2013 2:45 pm

Your video presentations continue to freeze and ask me to check my internet connection. The connection is perfect. As a result each of the last 3 times I was tempted to subscribe to Rule Breakers, it failed. Love to know what stocks your talking about.

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Penny
Penny
May 20, 2013 1:47 am
Reply to  GTThompson

Hi GT,
The article on this site is talking ABOUT Motley Fool’s subscription teaser – it isn’t the actual teaser itself. If you follow the Gumshoe’s analysis (above) you won’t need to worry about trying to view Jeremy Phillips’s teaser and having your computer freeze up. The comments from other readers are well worth reading too.

James Wood
Guest
James Wood
May 25, 2013 11:56 pm

Certainly glad I took the time to read everyone’s comments here. I too have my reservations about investing (gambling) in a stock with such a high P/E ratio, then again, over the last year I just watched my Orbite shares (ORT.TO)my largest holding) drop ~80%.
I do use Linked-In myself, but must admit not much – mainly because I’m not subscribed to their premium service, so I can’t connect other people too far out of my network.
Good luck to all who embark in this investment though. Just keep your stick on the ice and your eyes on that puck so you avoid getting fleeced.

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Dion Argueta
Dion Argueta
May 28, 2013 11:01 pm

I did like Linked In, I looked at their projected earnings estimates and as of May 28 2013 as I type, the next quarter is substantially lower and the next just slightly higher. Taking in to consideration the user comments on here and dubious business practice on the part of Linked In, I am convinced unless they dramatically come up with a change that will keep up the earnings and better it’s reputation it’s likely to go the other way. Stock growth is all about earnings and earnings growth. If you do something to damage the brand or reputation that could hurt the bottom line too. We’ll see?

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Jon
Guest
Jon
June 4, 2013 6:08 pm

Feb 3rd to june 4th.. look’s like he’s made that $117,000 investment to $158,000. Bank.

Bob Duckworth
Bob Duckworth
June 23, 2013 9:40 am

You’ve probably never heard of this social site, it’s called ZURKER, It is customer owned, maximum share ownership is 500 @ $1 per share. Log on if you want to see something different.

Carol Dean
Member
Carol Dean
August 11, 2013 10:16 pm

Here’s an article from Wired regarding Zurker:
http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2012-05/02/zurker

mike
Guest
August 13, 2013 11:22 pm

He recommended this stock in February when the price was around 125. It’s August 2013 and the price around 240. If he has not sold yet, he is currently up over $100k. In hindsight it was a good recommendation.

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rkatz0
Member
August 14, 2013 4:19 am
Reply to  mike

Yeah, hindsight is cool, isn’t it!?

👍 5
Donald Woodbine
Guest
September 3, 2013 8:50 pm

Anyone like zixi (encription service) as an investment?

rkatz0
Member
September 3, 2013 9:32 pm

I bought a half position in Jan/2013 and as you can see it has climbed from there, up almost 40%, however, right now it is very close to the 52 week high, not sure where it is going from here, I have a trailing stop and will sell it if it ever hits that. I would never put more than my “position size” on a speculation stock, and no more than 2 position sizes on any other, best regards.

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👍 5
rkatz0
Member
September 3, 2013 9:34 pm
Reply to  rkatz0

ps – as for the business of zixi, they provide a great service, mostly to corporate accounts, in my opinion it is going to be similar to MSFT but much much smaller once it levels off. They are not exposed to operating systems, database/office productivity (except email), gaming and other venues so the curve and size will be much smaller.

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Ross
Guest
Ross
September 23, 2013 9:03 am

I deactivated my Linkedin profile after my password was hijacked. I’m not on FB but bought the stock anyway because social media looks hot right now. LNKD has gone way up, but FB seems to be getting started after a bad IPO. YELP, YY, QIHU to name a few more.

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who noze
Member
October 19, 2013 12:54 am

+thumbs down on nuance as per Cramer may be a good buy becus of it gasfrac never reach its stated potential in fat u can call this a lemon however all is not lost BUYnok for a rebound

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HASM
Guest
HASM
November 26, 2013 4:30 pm

It took me two or three lines to figure that he was talking about LNKD. See, I would fire someone like Mr. Phillips. Instead of making a sales pitch using incognito, he should use the value of the product he is supposed to market. Using another product to market your own has never been a good marketing strategy. LNKD may be just like Google or Amazon… but the credibility of Mootley Fool is at stake due to his disingenuous proposal. Sounds like Obamacare to me…

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PeterB
Member
PeterB
January 21, 2014 7:59 am
Reply to  HASM

I agree entirely about this approach being disingenuous. For some reason I have just today received a mailer form MF which links to this item ( I subscribe to Shareadvisor in the UK). I find it increasingly irritating to have to sit through up to 50 minutes of fatuous repetitive drivel which keeps ‘telling me what its going to tell me” and always ends up being a promo for some sort of newsletter. If MF wants to advertise one of its services, then do just that and remember the KISS principle. As for LinkedIn, I have belonged for years and find it even more pointless than Facebook, full of pompous individuals trying to make average careers and dubious ‘skills’ sound interesting by using the same overblown industry psychobabble as everyone else.

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Ross
Guest
Ross
December 24, 2013 9:20 pm

Don’t like LNKD (the product), had no use for it. But the stock looks like it’s consolidating for another breakout. Even so, there are other stocks out there with less runup and more potential. Like FB which is the only stock that I’m stopless on.

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Annoyed
Guest
Annoyed
January 22, 2014 9:50 am

Just sat through the 30+ minutes getting more annoyed, as became obvious the FREE recommendation they promised to give was not going to be revealed for free.
Not what I expect from the MF, but then it seems to have gone commercial in the last 10 years compared to it ‘community’ beginnings
I also suspected it was LinkedIn they were recommending. I don’t have any strong views on that, but would have taken them more seriously if they had mentioned the company near the beginning and then given the background on why and the offer to fiollow similar things on the ir newsletter etc

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