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Motley Fool’s “Brand Inside a Brand: The Next Intel”

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, October 31, 2007

OK, so I’m starting to think that Fyodor Dostoyevsky has been reincarnated as a Motley Fool copywriter — the amount of text they throw into their teaser emails, many of them ten pages long or longer, is a bit ridiculous … I’d say they lead the industry in that category.

But more to the point, they certainly sometimes come up with a great idea … so let’s sniff out their latest teaser, shall we?

This one comes in with a healthy dose of fearmongering — as most of the newsletter pitches do these days, in homage to our uncertain times and jittery markets. “Read this before the market crashes” is certainly an effective tagline, if the dozens of readers who have frantically forwarded the email to me is any indication.

So, what is it they’re selling? It’s a subscription to the Motley Fool Stock Advisor, the brother-versus-brother newsletter at the fool, which I think is their oldest and least expensive.

The pitch for their teaser stock is that it’s maybe the “next Intel” as a “brand inside a brand”

What does that mean? It’s essentially the branding of a component part or capability for a product, and when they refer to “next Intel” it’s a reference to that company’s spectacular move to build a brand in the 1990s — did anyone ever care what the brand name of their computer chip was before the dancing clean suits and the “Intel Inside” campaign?

So this is following in those footsteps in some way, though they do clarify that it’s a much smaller company — explosive growth out of the Intel behemoth, after all, may not be all that likely at this point, not with a near-$200 billion market cap.

In the Fool’s words, “Before Intel, nobody dreamed a market leader like Dell would feature another company’s logo front and center on its top-of-the-line computers. But you see how it worked for them!”

So who is this that’s following in Intel’s footsteps? They do give plenty of clues in their long, long, long essay …

“The brilliant idea behind it was conceived by a precocious physics Ph.D. from Stanford and Cambridge while meditating in India. (He still owns about $2 BILLION worth of stock!)”

Sales are going up 20% a year on 35% margins.

They have $500 million in cash and no debt.

They are in cinema sound and electronics, and in personal stereo electronics and are the “undisputed industry leader”

And there’s some growth on the horizon, in their words: “You see, the Multiplex is just for starters. Home theaters, iPods, PDAs, and satellite car stereos… that’s where the REAL money is. And this little company’s patented technology is so powerful it could one day be used in virtually all of these products.”

There are only a handful of analysts covering this company, which they refer to as possibly the next Apple or next Dell, in addition to the next Intel.

So, worn out yet? Did you read the whole email? There’s lots of stuff in there about bear market panics, and the need to be invested in the stock market and to ignore those who chirp about the next crash … being out of the market because of fear is generally a big mistake, is the impression I get from them (and I personally mostly agree on that point).

Oh, and if you want to subscribe they’ll also send you some special reports, yada yada yada — one of those reports is for the New American Super Brand, which I wrote up in this space about six months ago for you if you’re interested.

But if you just want another investing idea without subscribing to another newsletter, then your friendly neighborhood Gumshoe is here to lend a helping hand.

This “brand within a brand” stock from Tom Gardner is, according to the detailed musings of the Cognitationizer 1700 …

Dolby Laboratories (DLB)

A couple of the fearless Gumshoe readers sent in the correct guess on this one, so congratulations to them — for the rest of you, this is a brand that’s been around in the consumer space for probably as long as Intel, maybe longer. I certainly remember the little double D logo on cassette decks from my misspent youth, and the accompanying personal conviction that Dolby was awesome without having any idea why.

There has been a lot written about this stock in the last year, given their remarkable performance since becoming a separately traded company back in 2005 — I’d recommend an article from SmartMoney to start, but you’ll find no shortage of ammunition for building whatever argument you like for this firm.

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Their big technology in sound processing is the noise reduction that cleans up sound, or at least that was the start of their journey — sounds like they’ve gone quite a bit further now in adding 3D sound for multiplexes and lots of other high end widgets for the audiophiles and professionals. I have no idea what their presence is like in the iPod space, so that would be worth checking out, but they have definitely introduced a slew of impressive sounding (no pun intended) products over the last month or so and folks seem to think that they’re going to be a brand that matters in the consumer space this Christmas.

The numbers do match up, and they are fairly impressive — more than $500 million in net cash, decent profit and operating margins as teased. The shares are up about 100% from last Fall, and they do trade at a significant premium to the market.

Right now, analysts (though as the Fool says, there aren’t many of them and perhaps they’re missing the story) are pegging the forward PE ratio at 34. That’s pretty high given the projected growth, but maybe they’re understating the growth — the earnings did go up by over 50% in the past year, so if there was any likelihood of them continuing that stellar success I’d certainly be willing to pay 34 times earnings for the shares.

Don’t know about that likelihood, however. Tom Gardner apparently believes that Dolby will be moving further and further into the ubiquitious consumer electronics that we all have in our homes and pockets, and if that’s the case and the “Dolby Inside” logo starts to get the same kind of traction as “Intel Inside” and the Dolby name helps these products to stand out and raise prices or increase sales the way the Intel name did, then there’s a good chance he’ll be right, in my opinion. If it remains where it is right now, as it appears to me on a cursory glance, as a brand that is cared about primarily by hard core audiophiles and theater owners, then the growth might be significantly more restrained.

So … there you have it, the next “Brand Inside a Brand” to get your juices flowing … might be a great one that you’ll see branding the outside of your car or your MP3 player in a few years, or it might be an expensive dinosaur that’s been bypassed by the iPod wave of consumer electronics. I don’t know the answer, but if you do I’d love to hear it … comment away.

And Happy Investing to all.

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AlanH
July 11, 2009 7:07 am

For info…. its a long blog but I will get to the point: I used to be a recording engineer in the 70’s and we were the first in europe to get Dolbys. (first album was Crosby Stills and Nash before Young arrived)They were grey boxes about the size of a microwave oven and you needed 16 of them to treat the 16 tracks on the 2″ recording tape that was dragged across the tape head producing loads of hiss.! Tape hiss was the bane of all recording. Essetially the dolby compressed the sound waves before they hit the recording tape, then de-compressed the treated sound waves on the way out. Consequently the hiss was relatively 15-25% lower than normal, so the music was the purer. It was immediately adopted for 2 reasons: 1 because it worked 2 because once a tape was treated and moved to another studio they needed a dolby to decompress the sound or it sounded aweful. The brand name within a brand name was born.
Of course nowdays recording is digital/solid state so mechanical/amp noise is near non existant so the need for a dolby is debatable espec for an Ipod/MP3. But studios still use them, so other studios/cinemas/home sterio’s etc still have to have them them to decompress the sound. Consequently any playback system that doesnt have dolby inside is considered ‘lacking’ (except IPOD/MP3.) So outside studios etc, dolby really only continues due to the brand name…. not what it actually does. My guess is that it will fade with every new generation of music player. The tapes may arrive dolbied, but apple can just buy one to decompress the music before loading it on their noisless devices.You dont need one in each of the millions of Ipods, so thats a lot less sales.

AlanH

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AlanH
July 11, 2009 12:02 pm

PS ok, so how many people out there had any idea of what a Dolby did? Now you know, you are better equipped to know what you are investing your $ in. How many people out there still want to invest in Dolby?

Everyone of you knows the inside story on your own sector. So spill the beans so we know what ‘magic’ we should/shouldn’t invest in. Whats hot and whats not? Its a two way street !!

AlanH

AlanH
July 11, 2009 12:17 pm

PPS You dont need to say buy/sell xyz product….. there are too many products to comment them all. All you have to say is ‘I know x sector’ Send your questions and I’ll answer all as I see it. In return others will reply to your questions ‘as they see it’…. or they can muck off from this blog.

AlanH

AlanH
July 11, 2009 12:31 pm

ppps Just reply ‘Im in xyz sector. My email’s qwerty.com’.

I’ll build the database and we can all get the inside track.

AlanH

A.M. Deist
Member
A.M. Deist
February 8, 2010 3:25 pm

DLB fundamentals aren’t as entising as DTSI, which has a much better price to sales, gross margin and quarterly revenue growth. That said, if you believe as I do that baby boomers are going to start exiting the market as they retire for better security in their retirement, it doesn’t bode well for either DLB or DTSI.

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love it
Guest
love it
March 17, 2010 7:06 pm

Just received the newsletter again in 2010. Does motley fool always push stale recommendations?

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Jason
Guest
Jason
May 2, 2010 7:11 pm

Just got this myself… AlanH, do you really believe that all Dolby does is peddle obsolete technology from the 70s? And you call yourself an "industry insider"?

I have no idea if Dolby is a good buy right now, but I do know that you're buying more than tech developed to reduce noise in tapes. They own the most commonly used surround sound codec included on DVDs, and is similarly entrenched in Blu-Ray. Odds are, if you're dealing with surround sound, you're either dealing with Dolby technology or (as mentioned here in the responses) DTS.

TTBoss
Guest
TTBoss
December 4, 2010 11:34 am

Hi,
I just received the same mail today. Their offer now is $79.00 discounted rate for the subscribtion. It says it is $120.00 off, can someone who has previous membership comment if it is worth $79.00? How are their other stock picks fairing so far?

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AnotherUser
Guest
AnotherUser
December 8, 2010 8:01 am

I'm interested in knowing exactly what @TTBoss has asked.

I recently signed up for some email and received a similar email just a day or two ago. The same "brand inside a brand" and the deal for $79 for the first year (or $150+ for two years).

Isabelle
Guest
Isabelle
January 1, 2011 10:04 am

Wow, so this Motley fool email has been around for 4 years now! Just received it today 1st of Jan 2011… Glad I've found this page.

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nick
Guest
nick
January 1, 2011 12:06 pm

Me too.. they must be taking us for a motley bunch of fools to not sniff around after getting today's mailshot…4 years old? Pah!

Leah 1
Guest
Leah 1
January 3, 2011 7:13 pm

wow i do not know who to believe …i think i just invest in bricks and mortar at least i have control not some greedy 2 billion man ( Ray Dolby )having control of my mloney !!!!!

Sandra
Member
Sandra
January 4, 2011 4:08 pm

Anyone have any comments about the Martin E. Weiss/Money and Markets newsletters? Valid investment info or valid scams?

@METROmilwaukee
Guest
January 8, 2011 10:22 pm

Actually, as of today JAN 8, 2011 the brand-in-a-brand to pay attention to is NVidia (NVD). Every microcomputing device is being used and marketed for use with "multimedia" i.e. Audio & Video. The demands for processing power has moved from the CPU to the GPU. Read the Sunday inserts for any Best Buy or Office Depot retailers selling microcomputing devices and you'll all see exactly what I mean.

I know about NVidia from my days in CAD and architecture after a period of consolidation they were left standing with the most powerful graphics cards that became to-die for. Now they are in the mainstream and going nowhere but up and out into every digital device that can play video over the web: desktops, netbooks, cars and whatever.

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@METROmilwaukee
Guest
January 8, 2011 10:23 pm

Silly me, the correct symbol is NVDA

Guest
Guest
Guest
January 22, 2011 11:32 am

The best question to ask yourself when given these "surefire winners" is… how come these guys are being so nice to me? Why don't they just take their advertising dollars, leverage up and buy the stock themselves?

There are three possible answers, and not one of them is "they are just really nice guys who want to help me out".

1: They've already bought it, need it to rise so they can take their winnings. That's been around a long time – "pump and dump".

2: They haven't got a clue, but they know they can make money if they can use either of the two sole factors that motivate investors – fear and greed – to pay for their advice. Or newsletter. Or instant email alerts.

3: They've got hold of some inside information (very rare) and are pumping or hammering the stock to get the price where they want it before the information comes out.

But there ain't no such thing as a free lunch. Might as well go down to the horse track, buy some tip sheet and put it all on the nose of the recommended long-shot and earn 20-1. You'd have more fun, too.

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hank
Guest
hank
January 22, 2011 11:36 am

Hi!

Just got this email from MF –
Watch This Before the
Market Crashes!
"Is Another Market Crash Coming?"
— The Wall Street Journal http://www.fool.com/fool/free-report/18/sa-mktcra

Joe Kelly
Guest
Joe Kelly
January 22, 2011 12:22 pm

I got the same one. I stopped listening to them long ago. They're just drawn out sales pitches for another advisor.

The only site I've paid money to join is this one because Travis works hard and there's no BS.

Jim Cantor
Guest
Jim Cantor
March 12, 2011 4:36 pm

Just got the same, video ad.

Peter Hamilton
Guest
Peter Hamilton
March 13, 2011 4:21 pm

Can't believe they are beating this same horse 175 weeks later, now just in a slightly differnet format, not an email, but a video/audio "letter"

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