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What’s NICI’s teased “The next IIPR and a 1,400% return?”

What's being teased by the National Institute for Cannabis Investors? We share the Thinkolator's answer, and take a quick look at all of the marijuana REITs for you.

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, November 11, 2021


The National Institute for Cannabis Investors (NICI), a publishing subsidiary of Money Map Press, is pitching its entry-level membership now ($39/yr) by dangling the promise of a “next IIPR” stock… and that’s a stock I own and have written about a lot over the years, so the ad caught my eye.

Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR) is the leading REIT in the cannabis real estate world — they were essentially created to finance marijuana companies at a time when it was hard for those companies to raise the capital needed to build out their business, particularly building big and expensive indoor grow houses. They’re a sale/leaseback company, which means that they essentially buy the property and pay for the construction and improvements needed, often paying substantially more than the property would objectively be worth to a non-cannabis operator, and in return the seller signs a long-term lease with very high rent (often providing IIPR with an annual cash return of 15-20%, though that has fallen over the years).

That has worked fantastically for IIPR — the huge cash flow from those lucrative deals led to them being able to grow their dividend very quickly, and the share price has followed that dramatic rise in the dividend, which has also let them scale the business higher by selling more shares at high prices, further building the portfolio.

But IIPR is quite expensive now, using any valuation criteria you might reasonably apply to a REIT, and the competitors are coming… so it sounds like NICI is teasing us about one of those emerging competitors. The 1,400% returns they tease as potential are essentially just a reference to IIPR, that’s roughly what IIPR investors have earned as a total return if they bought in 2017 when the company was first publicly traded, and when the shares were in the teens (I didn’t buy my first shares until until January of 2018, so my total return on that first buy is only about 850%, though I’ve both bought more and sold parts of my stake in the interim).

So who are they teasing? Let’s check the clues, here’s some more from Danny Brody’s email:

“… my team just uncovered another cannabis real estate stock that we had to put on your radar right away…

“It operates in the real estate sector, but its business model makes it even more scalable than Innovative Industrial. (Meaning it could make itself and you a lot of money.)

“Instead of owning real estate, this company originates and structures loans, setting whatever terms it wants. And because cannabis is still federally illegal and companies have a difficult time using the banking system, there are companies that would gladly pay a 20% interest rate on a loan from this company.”

That’s probably enough of a clue, frankly — it’s still a small sector without any players, and I think I own shares of them all, but let me double-check the other clues they dropped to be sure… here’s more from the ad:

“… another ‘cannabis landlord’ that went public in March 2021.

“The stock is trading for just over $20 per share right now, and this reminds the NICI team of the same type of potential that early shareholders had with Innovative Industrial.”

And yes, that’s enough confirmation — what NICI is teasing here is the first major exchange-listed cannabis mortgage REIT, AFC Gamma (AFCG). This is a new company, it was launched in the summer of 2020 and did indeed go public in March of this year, as teased, and it’s essentially a REIT that makes mortgage loans and construction loans to cannabis operators — they’re not technically a landlord like IIPR or the other sale/leaseback companies, but their loans are guaranteed by real estate. And they are likely to be a more volatile company — they will likely use more leverage on their loan portfolio than IIPR does on its property portfolio, and their loans are higher-cost but shorter-term than typical sale/leaseback deals, so the borrowers cycle through the portfolio much faster.

In many ways, though it’s technically a mortgage REIT, it’s probably better for investors to think of AFCG as being like a business development company (BDC) for the cannabis industry — they provide high-cost, high-fee loans to emerging companies, and act as partners for those companies when it comes to construction of their critical assets, it’s just that their loans happen to be secured by real estate. Their success will depend both on the general success of the cannabis industry and their ability to choose the right borrowers and assess the credit risks.

Irregulars might remember that I added AFC Gamma to the Real Money Portfolio in August. I went into a lot more detail on the company at that time, and in some subsequent articles as I’ve added to that initial position, but here’s the basic sum-up I shared at that point:

In the abstract, I’ve found that buying just about any dividend growth REIT when they are under-levered (relative to their peers) is a no-brainer. Unless the company screws up or the business itself doesn’t make economic sense, then the gradual maturing of the portfolio and the ability to ramp up shareholder returns by paying for some of their future acquisitions with debt means that dividend growth can continue for a long time, at very high rates. And if you start out with a high dividend in the first place, dividend growth can have a massive impact over time on compounded returns. Maybe that changes if we see interest rates really turn and climb meaningfully higher, so that’s a risk as well, but predicting the future path of interest rates is something nobody can do, not even the Federal Reserve, so we may as well base our valuations on the world as we know it today.

It’s also risky to bet on a company that’s only a year old, and in general I prefer REITs that are internally managed versus those that contract out their management to a fee-earning manager like AFC Gamma does, but the potential is high enough to take that risk. I think there’s a decent chance that AFCG could increase the dividend per share by at least 50% over the next year, and possibly much more, which would mean the shares bought today would have an effective yield on cost of at least 10%, and compounding works its magic (if you start with a dividend of 7.5%, and get dividend growth of “only” 30% a year and the shares keep pace with that, also going up 30% a year, then $5,000 turns into $26,000 in five years). Rapid dividend growth brings a lot of investor attention, particularly if people trust that the dividend is covered with cash flow, and it generally drags the share price along with it.

And, of course, we get the rising tide of a fast-changing industry, with lots of entrepreneurs trying to build marijuana businesses, and often needing capital to do that. A decade ago, it was exciting to think about one or two states legalizing medical marijuana, now there are 38 states who have legalized medical marijuana, and 18 have legalized adult recreational use, though it often takes a state a few years to set up regulations and build a local industry to a meaningful scale. And though the spread is fast, the legal business still has a long way to go — estimates are that still about 75% of marijuana sales are on the black market (~$60 billion, versus ~$20 billion in sales in legal US marijuana states last year), so the market remains just barely tapped. I have a tough time figuring out which growers are likely to make it, since so much depends on brands and customer appeal and on companies that may or may not be able to wring efficiencies out of operations in many different states, and since most growers are really still startups with no clear profit forecast… but with a fast-growing industry that entrepreneurs keep throwing themselves at, I do still like the idea of owning the financiers.

And here’s a small part of what I noted in mid-September, when they announced their third dividend:

AFC Gamma (AFCG) had told us to expect a dividend that was at least as high as the 38 cents they paid last quarter… and had all but promised that it would grow, as they intend to pay out more than 90% of net income and that number is growing fast. They followed through with that, declaring a dividend of 43 cents for this quarter (ex-div date should be a few days before September 30). That’s 13% growth sequentially from last quarter, and they didn’t exist to pay a dividend a year ago so I guess it’s infinity-percent growth since then. In yield terms, if the dividend stays flat for the next four quarters, that would mean we’ll receive $1.72 in dividends — a very strong 8.2% yield at $21.

AFC Gamma is not as comfortable a company to own as the marijuana property REITs like IIPR and our newer holding, NLCP, partly because of the related party management fees that could be abused, but they are faster moving and will cycle through their capital more regularly, with less interest rate risk (because they’re generally offering four year loans, not 20 year leases), and they are probably the most likely players in this group to lever up meaningfully with debt in the next few years, which creates both more risk and more upside potential.

But it sure has high return potential if the business can remain viable and stake out a meaningful niche in the marijuana financing realm. An 8% yield that grows even 10-15% a year can provide amazing compounding power as you reinvest those dividends. If you buy 100 shares and reinvest the dividend, even assuming that the dividend growth is only 10% and the shares rise more slowly in value, perhaps averaging 8% a year, in five years you’ll have 150 shares just from the dividend reinvestment, and the annual income from the dividends on those 150 shares, at that point, would represent something like an 18% annual return on your original investment. That compounding is what builds fortunes for long term dividend growth investors — it’s not guaranteed to work, and certainly there’s risk in this new company in a space rife with legal and regulatory uncertainty, but when it does work, it works spectacularly. If that’s how it plays out with AFCG (a huge if, of course, none of us can see the future), then the math says a $2,100 investment today would be worth about $4,300 in five years, and from that point will be paying out almost $400 a year in dividend income. That’s not the hyper-optimistic case, and of course it’s not the worst-case scenario (which is either big regulatory shifts that destroy the business model, or, slightly less-worse, a few tenants defaulting at once, leading to dividend cuts and substantially losses). I’d say it’s a reasonable base case scenario. Dividend growth is worth the risk, particularly when you start with a high real yield, so I added to that position on this strong signal of the growth I expect to come.

There are now effectively four publicly traded financiers in the marijuana space. Here’s how I summed those up in the Friday File last week:

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I do keep an eye on my overall exposure to marijuana finance, since that has grown to be a pretty big part of the portfolio now (close to 7%), and the biggest risk to the industry as it is now organized is probably full federal legalization — which seems unlikely in the current environment, when Congress is unwilling to agree on anything. Cannabis is a plant that can be grown anywhere, but right now it has to be grown in the state where it is consumed, and some states are extremely oversupplied with cannabis right now, driving prices down (particularly the states who don’t really limit licensing, like California and Oregon) — that’s putting pressure on smaller operators already in some of those states, it’s hard to make a profit when prices are falling unless you have a strong brand, but if we get to a point where cannabis is legalized and can cross state lines, it could be disastrous for a lot of small growers, including some of the tenants and borrowers for these finance companies, who wouldn’t be able to compete with the lowest-cost growers or the emerging national brands. These financiers are all trying to appeal to the larger multi-state operators who are the likely winners of regulatory relaxation (well, except for tiny Power REIT, they’re mostly dealing with teensy tenants), but big shifts could create meaningful weakness among the tenants/borrowers of all of these REITs — and it only takes one or two defaults to make investors very, very jittery.

That risk keeps me from going into this segment with a lot more capital, but from a strictly financial standpoint, given the current regulatory environment and the returns they’re earning now, AFCG is a pretty easy buy right here and IIPR is a hold… and we’ll see how the other two are looking once they provide us with their latest numbers. Each company is appealing in its own way, but each also has some hair on it — IIPR is the clear leader of the industry but is too expensive right now, AFCG has an expensive outside manager and more rapid turnover, Power REIT’s biggest tenant is one of its CEO’s other companies, a firm which has no prior expertise in cannabis growing, and NLCP is quite new and doesn’t yet have a major exchange listing, so has to work a little harder to get financing… but is also competing most directly with the dominant IIPR.

Here’s how I’d sum the four companies up today:

Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR) is the overwhelming leader, with the advantage of a history of very rapid dividend growth and the largest portfolio in the sector, with 76 properties in 19 states, mostly large indoor growhouses that are under 15-year leases with high initial cap rates (12-15% these days) and 3% annual escalators (rent increases). Credit quality has improved over time as they’ve dealt with more large multi-state operators, but those better credit risks also get better terms. They’ve made acquisitions, including commitments that they haven’t spent yet, of about $1.9 billion in total, and have funded most of that with equity but have now also borrowed about 20% of their estimation of gross property value (roughly $450 million) to provide a little leverage. They are currently valued at about 40X current funds from operations (FFO), with a dividend yield that will likely be about 2.4% if the annual dividend growth stays in the recent 25% range (it was over 100% for a while) and a trailing payout ratio of about 88%, and going by the cost of the properties they’ve acquired, the market cap of $6.5 billion means they’re valued at well over 3X asset value even if you ignore the debt. Going forward, they will change the dividend only twice per year, instead of every quarter, so growth could be choppier. Very rich valuation, but the clear leader so far.

AFC Gamma (AFCG) is the first cannabis-focused lender to be listed on a major exchange. Makes five-year secured loans, and intends to be roughly 50% debt-funded by the end of next year, which should provide substantial leverage (their average annual return from loans is 20%, and they just borrowed $100 million at 5.75%, which provides a very nice margin). This is the highest yielder in the bunch, with a forward yield of 7.2% at $24 even if they don’t increase the dividend. The shorter terms on their loans give more inflation protection, and faster growth as they cycle through capital more quickly, but also less stability for the long term without those 15-year leases to provide some future certainty. Externally managed by the controlling shareholder, including a hedge fund-like profit share if they exceed an 8% growth hurdle. Very high dividend yield relative to the others, still very small with a market cap under $400 million, but also perhaps more susceptible to competition if big mezzanine lenders and private equity companies (Apollo, KKR, etc.) try to enter the cannabis space more aggressively.

NewLake Capital (NLCP) is a new mortgage REIT, it is not listed on a major exchange at this point but trades over the counter, which might make it tougher to raise additional capital (institutions prefer listed companies, one of the advantages that IIPR has milked because they got a NYSE listing early). They have a similar background to IIPR, with a management team from the traditional REIT world, and they are the company most directly emulating IIPR’s strategy — they do have some tenants who are dispensaries (retail storefronts essentially), but the grow houses are more valuable and account for about 80% of their revenue. They already have a decent-size portfolio of 28 properties, many of them operated by the top-tier multi-state operators who everyone would prefer to deal with (Acreage, Cresco Labs, Curaleaf, Trulieve, etc.). The business has a very short operating history, so that’s certainly a risk (the company as it now exists is the result of a merger of two smaller real estate portfolios back in March), and 50% of their revenue comes from Curaleaf and Cresco Labs, so there is some concentration risk as well. They report their next quarter tomorrow morning, so the story could change quickly because we don’t know a lot yet about the returns from their recent acquisitions, but the way I figured it when I bought shares about two months ago, now NLCP is valued at about 20X what their Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO) will be. They have not been super-aggressive with the dividend growth to date, and have only paid a partial dividend to public investors so far (they came public in August, before that they had been paying dividends to their private shareholders), but they should be able to pay a dividend in the 25-30 cent range based on their existing portfolio, and I would expect them to have meaningful dividend growth capacity as they scale up. That means they will probably have a higher dividend than IIPR, and trade at a valuation that’s about half of IIPR’s by most measures (asset value, cash flow, revenue), but they’re also far smaller (market cap around $600 million), and are competing most directly with 10X bigger IIPR.

Power REIT (PW) is an existing microcap REIT that spent a couple years searching for a new business — their foundational asset was a railroad line whose returns were in litigation for a while, depressing investor interest, but they also branched out into owning the land under utility-scale solar projects before shifting strategies to build a portfolio of “controlled environment agriculture” facilities, and their capital base was pretty small so they shot for the low end of the market, buying greenhouse properties that are much cheaper to build and operate than the big indoor growhouse facilities. PW is the cheapest of these companies on a cash flow basis, by my estimates they trade at only about 15X FFO, but they do not yet pay a dividend (past tax losses mean they can delay dividend payment for a while if they wish, but they could afford a dividend of $2-3 at this point if they wished, which would be a meaningful yield even at recent highs near $60). PW’s typical leases have a slight twist, they essentially guarantee payback of the initial financing in the first three years, at very high rents, then drop down to a lower level for the balance of the long-term lease, with annual rent increases designed to keep pace with inflation. The biggest risk that’s unique to Power REIT is that their largest deal, by far, comes with some hair on it — it’s a brand new lease with the CEO’s other company as the operator and tenant, and with a Michigan property that was in foreclosure as a vegetable greenhouse and has to be upgraded for cannabis… though as investors, we should also consider that another meaningful risk is that they’ve now spent all the money they raised in their last equity offering, a rights offering back in January, and they’ve talked about trying to raise cash in non-dilutive way going forward (preferred shares, debt, rights offerings), but whatever they choose to do to raise more capital could impact the share price in a meaningful way, if only because this is still a tiny company (market cap is now up to just under $200 million). Small and less diversified means more risky, which is partly why it’s cheaper than near-peers, though I do like CEO David Lesser’s strategy thus far even if I’m concerned about the risk of their Michigan deal. They should be reporting their lates quarter any day now, though I have not seen a confirmed date for the announcement.

I own shares of all four of those marijuana financiers, and that’s still my favorite way to invest in the marijuana market as a whole given the great uncertainties of building local growing and retail businesses in a fast-changing and competitive market. On any given day, one of these companies might appeal more to me than the others, but the market is still sorting out how to value the smaller IIPR competitors — some of that will come with time, particularly as their dividend growth trajectories begin to become more clear (and as NLCP and AFCG get a couple more quarters under their belt as public companies), but there’s something still to like and to fear about each of these firms.

Have a favorite marijuana REIT? Dislike them all? Let us know with a comment below… thanks for reading!

Disclosure: As noted above, I own shares in all four of the marijuana-related REITs, Innovative Industrial Properties, AFC Gamma, NewLake Capital Partners, and Power REIT. I will not trade in any of the covered stocks for at least three days after publication, per Stock Gumshoe’s trading rules.

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terrytwoutes
terrytwoutes
November 11, 2021 2:24 pm

Thanks to this site, I bought into AFCG about 2 months ago. Up around 10% so far and happy with that and hoping it continues with success. Longer time investor since Feb 2021 in IIPR and that has been a real nice ride this year. I like the investing model being in the service side of the marijuana stocks vs the growers or sellers. Just seems less risky to me to be slightly removed from the more direct product side. Of course gov’t regulation can upset the model and that is just something that have to deal with at the time.
As point for discussion, I am also of the same general thought process on Galaxy Digital (BRPHF). Not a direct owner of crypto but more on the service side. Also learned about BRPHF on the site here and thanks to Travis for the information sharing.

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Peter Vergote
Member
Peter Vergote
November 11, 2021 2:25 pm

I quite like AFCG (and especially the juicy dividend) and I’m thinking of opening a position. One thing I learned today from another author is that AFCG currently has no business projects in California and Washington. This could be an advantage in light of your comments about oversupply and limitless licensing in some states.

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Rick Chambers
Guest
Rick Chambers
November 11, 2021 2:44 pm

I’d have to say if you are just now getting into this end of the business investing in the ETF symbol MJUS might be the best way to do it. Very affordable with moderate expense ratio, unfortunately I sold my IIPR a while back so this seems to me to be a great option.

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sramekp
sramekp
November 11, 2021 3:13 pm

I agree with Gumshoe, IIPR was and still is best in the field and the last 3 years was one helluva ride.

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mbmacq44
mbmacq44
November 11, 2021 3:39 pm

I trust your analysis and decisions on these investments

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steveflick
November 11, 2021 3:39 pm

Great cannabis REIT article Travis. I liked your comparison of the 4 in this category. I have followed SG and executed trades in all 4 …
and look forward to continuing with your recommendations.

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Carl Wright
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Carl Wright
November 11, 2021 3:53 pm

Travis, Thank you for the article today on $AFCG and their associated competitors. Bought AFCG almost a month ago and was mulling more. You encapsulated my thoughts on the 4 stocks. Ergo, bought more $AFCG today. Like $AFCG for several reasons but two stand out: they are priced at a sweet spot and they pay a decent dividend so in case this does not work out as planned (stratospheric increase in price) will still make some nice change. Now have my fill at 3% of my portfolio.

If it does work out, it will be like my investment in $IIPR – bought in 10/2019 & twice in early 2020, sold 1/3 of my holdings in 11/2020 and now own $IIPR @ $24.43 avg. cost.

Thank you for the timely article and ability to give clarity on a clouded investing field.

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Moneysap
Moneysap
November 11, 2021 6:10 pm

Could you please comment on potential legal jeopardy for US investors in these stocks, due to federal illegality. Might our revenue-hungry government start coming after this money beyond taxes on profits?

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Walter Pisary
Member
Walter Pisary
November 13, 2021 3:35 am

I can’t think of any scenario of incurring liability (excluding taxes) for owning shares of a Company that is listed on a public and as such federally approved exchange.

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goblue16
Irregular
November 11, 2021 9:23 pm

I have a lifetime membership to NICI and you indeed have the correct stock.

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wazuzu17
wazuzu17
November 11, 2021 9:38 pm

Travis, you are the Greatest! Thanks to you, you way back reinforced the wisdom of my initial purchase of IIPR–the ONLY recommendation by the Cannabis Institute Hucksters of 20+stocks on which I have lost over $250,000! …

IIPR has rewarded me handsomely as I’ve continued to add to my holdings, thank goodness.

And when you recommended AFCG AND NLCP, I nibbled and then at today’s opening, bought some more of the former! Only to read late this afternoon your review of the 4 stocks! I’ll be buying some more tomorrow.

There are so many blowhards and snake oil salesmen scurrying around trying to reduce the weight of the unwary ‘s wallet. You are such a breath of fresh air! Objective with no axe to grind, humorous, a delight!

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OatPail&Mask
Member
OatPail&Mask
November 12, 2021 8:01 am

Small sure gets whacked when (many) of these new companies decide a merger in the best interest a few years later.

My broker then hits me with a $20-50 “Corporate Action Fee” for the typical 2 shares I buy “for the future” (on these? not sure, but I incur quite a few corp. action fees – comments welcome on if mergers incur the fee) .

OatPail&Mask
Member
OatPail&Mask
November 12, 2021 8:14 am

I might add: my broker just lists “corporate action fee” and amount. Never even says what event went forth. In ordinary times, this question coming along just now, I would have picked up the phone and spoken with their customer support. Now it’s a covid 1-2 hours wait using a callback system only they use.

I’ll try this…line out to Gumshoe may be faster today!

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bigorangedave
bigorangedave
November 13, 2021 3:32 am

Fidelity is my primary broker. Over the last several years, there of been many corporate actions involved in my portfolio. I have never been charged a fee for the handling of any of them even when they typically require a phone call to their customer service department to manage. My typical overseas settlement for a trade has been $32; which annoys me to no end now that I am so used to paying nothing new here in America!

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Walter Pisary
Member
Walter Pisary
November 13, 2021 3:54 am

I don’t pay any fees with Shwab for any domestic trades (unlimited). Never paid a fee for any mergers/ spinoffs. With foreign Companies they charge $50 when you sell, but not necessarily when you buy, but I only have a couple of those, so that may be not the whole story.

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Walter Pisary
Member
Walter Pisary
November 13, 2021 4:32 am

I got into IIPR at around 25 and never sold. Still bullish on it. I don’t see much of a risk with federal legalization — real estate goes up in price over time and all those cannabis Companies will still need a space to grow and operate. They may not be able to charge those high premium rates but I expect the business to generate a nice profit anyway.
I missed the boat on AFCG initially but was able to get in on one of the dips. Quite happy with it so far. PW has actually been recommended by NICI a couple of months back. They are far from a pure cannabis play, so I passed. But I haven’t heard about NLCP before and I like what I read, so I will establish a position.
Thank you Travis, even if I never make another trade based on your analysis, I will still be forever grateful to you for Shopify.

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Walter Pisary
Member
Walter Pisary
November 13, 2021 10:44 pm

This is valid, but I still think with their size they can now survive several defaults, and in any case, the risk is less than owning some of these cannabis Companies. But I consider all of my cannabis investments as “speculation”, so I will [hopefully] not lose any sleep over it.

ytse
ytse
November 13, 2021 9:28 am

Travis,
Do you know NLCP issue K-1 or 1099?

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bechtold3
Member
bechtold3
November 15, 2021 11:24 am
Reply to  ytse

With the word “Partners” in their name a K-1 is most likely.

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vagentle
vagentle
November 15, 2021 6:19 am

What might be an IIPR exit plan? Assuming federal legalization is still 5-10 years away, is it possible for a company like Altria to vertically integrate by purchasing IIPR’s grow facilities as one asset, or as leases expire??

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Clifford Johnson
Clifford Johnson
November 15, 2021 9:20 am

A pot penny stock I like & hold is CADMF, with their auto-vending machine.

Cliff

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Gerard O'Dowd
Member
Gerard O'Dowd
November 15, 2021 4:47 pm

I’ve been told a number of times not to reach for yield when considering an investment opportunity. That advice was eminently correct for any investment in a levered Pfd or Bond ETF prior to the Great Recession, 2008-9. The ETF share prices all cratered and never recovered. I took huge losses on several large positions being held for retirement income. A learning experience. Never again.

However, in the past few years, investing for yield in individual stocks such as the IIM make over as a Digital REIT, BIP and BX as an LP’s prior to their listings as ordinary taxable corporations, as well as NEE CV, CCI CV bonds did pay off.

I had never considered AFCG or its peers as investments until reading your article. The risk/reward ratio seems attractive for AFCG.

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Craig Robinson
Guest
Craig Robinson
November 16, 2021 10:43 am

Hi Travis:

Good article! I have put in a limit order on AFCG as a result of your write up. For those of you considering crypto investing, I would recommend investing in a small number of quality coins. I’ve had a crypto portfolio since 2016 and my total gains to date are 270% (Net). I believe there will be exponential growth in the space over the next few years. So, if you haven’t invested yet, the opportunity is still there. Don’t be scared off by the scam coins/stories. It’s no different, to a large extent, to regular stock market investing. There have always been pump & dumpers in the stock space, it’s no different with crypto. You just need to do your research & only invest what you can afford to lose. Craig R.

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