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“The Great Treasure of the Bismarck Sea”

Nothing quite stirs the soul like the promise of undersea adventure and finding sunken pirate treasure — just ask Clive Cussler, who has so excited millions of readers with his stories of undersea adventure and treasure hunting that he doesn’t even have to write his own books anymore.

And that fact hasn’t escaped the investment newsletter copywriters — they know how to get the blood pressure rising:

“How a Tiny Exploration Company Just Unearthed 28 Million Ounces of Gold on the Ocean Floor…”

The intro to the ad even reads like the prologue of a Cussler novel:

“Chapter 1: A Shadowy Image

“The Captain of the Wave Mercury knew he was getting close…

“His electromagnetic scanners were pinging wildly – indicating massive amounts of gold somewhere nearby.

“For months, his robotic vehicles had combed a mountainous region 5,249 feet beneath the Bismarck Sea… Searching tirelessly for their target:

“A treasure of gold and silver so large, it’s worth more than the entire U.S. declared value of all the gold in Fort Knox.

“And then it happened…”

Provide your own drumroll in your head, please. All set? OK, so what the heck is being teased here?

Well, despite the fact that this is described as “the greatest treasure ever found,” dwarfing the well-publicized finds of Spanish Galleons and gold-laden ships, it is, of course, not a “treasure” in that sense at all — it’s an exploration project.

And apparently it’s super duper exciting:

“It’s already been appraised at $63.7 billion!

“But here’s the incredible part…

“The discovery is also potentially worth 164 times the value of the tiny exploration company that found it. And shares are likely to jump at an unprecedented rate from their current level of around $2.50.”

So those of you who’ve been around these parts for a while probably already know the name of the company and the full story — there aren’t, after all, terribly many deepsea miners out there. But just in case you want the full Gumshoe treatment, here’s a bit more of the tease from the ad:

“Chapter 2: The Hunt Is On

“It all started five years ago when a small Canadian company (I’ll call them “Treasure Corp.”) made a bold decision.

“They picked up shop in Toronto and traveled 8,600 miles to one of the least traveled places on Earth, Papua New Guinea.”

OK, I give up — you can listen to the video or read the presentation here if you like, it gives lots more tease-y details about this company and their “treasure” find, which they describe as “100 million tons of very special rocks called ‘massive seafloor sulfides.'” and “28.4 million ounces of gold and 528.8 million ounces of silver – all in less than one square mile.”

But I can’t keep up the pretense any longer, I’ll just have to tell you that yes, as you probably suspected, this must be … Nautilus Minerals (NUS in Toronto, NUSMF on the pink sheets).

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And hell no, it didn’t “all start” five years ago — that would be pretty quick even for land-based mining. The primary resource that Nautilus is trying to exploit, the Solwara 1 field, was discovered in 1996, and Nautilus got a license to do commercial exploration in 1997. At which time they envisioned hundreds of millions of dollars of fabulous shiny metal (mostly copper, but lots of gold, too) flowing into their coffers “in the immediate future.” Fourteen years later …

Interestingly enough, this time the pitch for treasure is for an inexpensive newsletter — they want to get you to join the Oxford Club, which at $79 is far cheaper than the last service to tease this underwater treasure (that was Frank Curzio’s Phase 1 Investor, which will cost you at least $3,000 and which teased this as “underwater gold sands” about a year ago — click here for that article if you’d like more chatter about the company).

But of course, though folks have known that there are lots of mineral resources on and under the ocean floor … pulling them up from under a mile of water, and doing so economically, is another thing entirely. Which explains why Nautilus has had “two or three years” as their expected commercial production timeline for, well, many years. And that’s still the expectation today — there are massive volcanic sulfides all over the ocean floor, and they are similar to the kind of resources that have made for some huge discoveries of gold and copper (and other stuff) on land … volcanoes don’t care, after all, whether they’re under land or water.

And none of those resources underwater have really been tapped so far, unlike the land-based sulfide deposits — so there are probably lots of extraordinarily rich deposits out there. The Solwara 1 project, which is planned to be Nautilus’ first extraction project (they finally got the mining lease in January), is indeed very high grade compared to most land discoveries.

Nautilus is still saying that it will take about 2-1/2 years to start production once they have gotten “Project Sanction” — I don’t know exactly what that means, but apparently it’s more than just raising the money and getting the mining lease. They do have the lease, for 20 years, from Papua New Guinea, and they do have deals in place to procure most of the needed equipment, but most of the equipment has not yet been built. The key component, we’re told, is the production support vessel, which I guess will run the whole operation — Nautilus is developing a new industry, based largely on underwater oil exploration technology, but they have to develop new stuff, too, in conjunction with some engineering and shipbuilding partners. They will essentially use robotic undersea mining vehicles that will dig up the deposits, which from what I’ve read are right on the ocean floor, not a lot of waste rock to clear, then turn it into a seawater slurry that will be pumped up to the support vessel and offloaded to barges for dewatering and transport to port, where it will then go through the same kind of concentrator as land-based ore, and refining, and etc. They talk about developing a seaborne concentrator to lessen the need to ship raw rock to port, but that sounds like it’s still pretty far off, it’s not part of their initial mining plans.

So you can imagine how important it is that the resources really are super high quality — you have to pump it up a mile from the ocean floor and then barge the rock to port before it’s even concentrated, which will cost a lot of money. The company has estimates that ongoing production will cost $70 per ton, and my wild guess is that they’re almost certainly being cockeyed optimists. That’s true of pretty much any mining operation, of course, but when it’s an operation that entails trying something that has never been done before, mining copper and gold from a mile under the ocean’s surface, well, as I’ve said before, you don’t have to try hard to imagine all the things that might go wrong. That guess comes from pure skepticism, not from any personal expertise or knowledge about their specific project or engineering solutions.

The capital expenses are estimated to be something in the neighborhood of $300-400 million to get started, largely buying the production vessel and support equipment and the robot miners and undersea slurry pumps, though that has probably changed a bit as they’ve made joint venture deals with the Papua New Guinea government to buy in to the mining operation (they’ll own 30%) and with the shipbuilder to buy into and co-own the production support vessel. They have a lot of cash, and ,indeed, have been teased as cash-rich in the past, though that cash is all spoken for and more if they’re going to go through with development — Nautilus Minerals will undoubtedly have to raise more money, either by selling off joint venture shares to a big miner or by issuing new stock or borrowing money, and probably no sane bank would lend at reasonable terms just yet — they planned just recently to issue shares for this fundraising, but pulled back their recent attempt to raise $150 million because the market wasn’t amenable (ie, they must have gotten word that it would have crushed the share price).

I can’t think of anything else to say — every time I write about this one, and it does come up every year or two (it is, after all, a fabulous story — perfect for selling newsletters), they are slightly further along in terms of permitting, leases, finding new deposits to exploit after this first one, getting equipment deals, and placing orders … and yet, they still always seem to be saying they’re two or three years away from production. Eventually it will probably be true, but I don’t know if it is yet — the company is extremely individual investor-savvy, since they know their story is key to raising more money, so you’ll find plenty of investor presentations and details on their website here if you’d like to dig in for yourself.

Is it crazy to dig up the sea floor for copper and gold, or is this a great idea that has finally hit its stride? My guess is that they’ll eventually actually produce something, but that it will cost far more and take far longer than is now predicted … and therefore, none of us will have the patience to make any money from it even if the operation does eventually spawn a profitable new industry that looks for these deposits around the world. They’ve been thinking about how to mine this seabed for 15 years, and it still seems to me like its pretty early days yet. Let us know what you think with a comment below.

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Paul K
Paul K
July 18, 2011 3:36 pm

Thanks Gumshoe….searching for buried treasure always makes good copy!

Bob Meranti
Guest
Bob Meranti
June 2, 2012 1:42 pm
Reply to  Paul K

I have been to the island and inspected the entire operation at my own expense and found this to be a very good investment with great returns, anyone not getting onboard now will only be disappointed later.

aoibhneas
June 2, 2012 7:34 pm
Reply to  Bob Meranti

A 40% drop on Friday does not look good.

Henry
Member
Henry
July 18, 2011 3:38 pm

We've all heard the joke about the definition of a gold mine: That being a hole in he ground with a lyer sitting beside it. Was wondering what one would call a gold, silver mine at the bottom of the Bismarck Sea? Think I'll pass on this one since I am past 80 years old.

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austin
austin
July 18, 2011 4:40 pm

Check out OMEX, they have started that stuff with Dorado Ocean Resources. I think I got the name right.

Jeffery
Jeffery
July 18, 2011 4:58 pm

Had this figured out after the the first sentence. Took 50% profit and ran. After some major league digging found that there is large opposition group in the government for the final environmental permits. Figured it was a good time to bail. Not sure if they will ever get into any actual production or not. You have to admit it is a pretty cool concept. Keep up the good work Gumshoe.

Alfred
Irregular
Alfred
July 18, 2011 5:04 pm

Oxford Club–Yuk.
Count your toes and fingers and make sure your wallet stays in your pocket..

Scott
Guest
Scott
July 19, 2011 7:12 am

After 15 years and nothing to show…..I'll pass. What are the salaries?

advantedges
Guest
advantedges
July 19, 2011 12:53 pm

OK – lets say we are wanting to buy this gold stock…….How can we buy on the Toronto Exchange from the USA? The pink sheet option is for fools and those that do not understand the market…………but it is gold, right?

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Philip Perlman
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Philip Perlman
July 19, 2011 1:31 pm

In addition if on land mining pollutes imagine how much worse pollution can we expect when extracting minerals from the ocean floor? Since most of the processing is unseen the degree of pollution from this undersea mining venture is probably unimaginable.

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Leah
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Leah
July 19, 2011 8:56 pm

I would expect environmental issues, technological failures and cost anaylisis would likely kill this off before it got rolling, or rather sucking, fractured rock of high density up from the sea floor. In the 1980s most every geologist knew there were vast deposits of mineral wealth in and on the sea floor, but I still think it's not practical.

Walk Dont Run
Guest
Walk Dont Run
July 20, 2011 11:40 am

Oxford Club and Phase 1 Investor are both part of Agora Publications, the investment letter & penny stock promoting machine. NUSMF, just as most of their "great finds" has been teased by several of Agora's newsletters. NUSMF hasn't gone anywhere since they began promoting itand, again like most of their penny stock promotions, I don't expect it to go anywhere. In the meantime, Bill Bonner, Addison Wiggin and the the rest of the Agora honchos are happy selling their subscriptions to a greedy public.

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Ian Graham
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Ian Graham
July 20, 2011 1:00 pm

Nautilus may mine the Solwara 1 deepsea lease one day. The only way to do it profitably is to process at site – discharging highly toxic concentrate into the last pristine oceanic waters in the world. There is no study show where the toxic silt plumes will extend or for what period. The PNG government is too corrupt to care, their 2 man EPA equivalent underfunded and too pressured to complain.
My guess is that the smart money will stay with the miners that can use proven technology. Greenpeace will have a field day with this one.

John F.
Guest
John F.
July 20, 2011 4:45 pm

They talk about developing a seaborne concentrator to lessen the need to ship raw rock to port.

Considering the location of the vents under some of the most pirate-infested waters in the world, this might not be advisable. If they manage to concentrate it to the point where you can load a few thousand dollars worth of the stuff into a speedboat, expect things to get lively.

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Thomas Johnson
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Thomas Johnson
July 24, 2011 10:42 am

It is simply amazing that so many financial news letters are able to survive considering the amount of hype, exaggerations and outright lies that spew forth daily. The amount of money lost by subscribers falling for their crap is no doubt in the billions. Personally, I'd like to see all these hucksters go bankrupt and spend some time in jail for the damage they have caused.

DCW
Member
DCW
July 24, 2011 10:57 am

Just read this chain on a Sunday morning and thought "I remember that stock." I checked and did buy about two years ago ( about $10,000) and my holding is up 41% as of this morning. Not bad but not great.

I do read Agora stuff and in general have found the advice to be good.

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Jack
Guest
Jack
July 24, 2011 12:14 pm

Received a teaser from a different outfit a few days ago that included this stock. It was an easy one to solve and I do like the story with this company. It is thinly traded and will run up and down as newsletters tell and retell the details. Since I trade for income, money tied up waiting for "the big run" is dead money. We may pay more later but I plan to watch this one for a "real" breakout and jump on with a trailing stop. If the big run never happens,,,OH WELL,,,,we still need to earn an income.

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Infinet
Member
July 24, 2011 12:32 pm

Re.Nautilus Minerals ,I don't think the Oxford Club would stick their neck out recommending a no-hoper….The German Edition of the Oxford Club gives excellent advice to its members,especially re Gold/Silver Companies.
I have taken in the info re. Nautilus, checked out the info on the Nautilus website ,
My gut feeling is: this could really become a success story. Have also registered for free
News Alerts at the PNG Mine Watch, which will inform me of any Nautilus hitches,
And I have bought a small amount of shares.They are doing well on all the German
Stock Exchanges and within a few days showing a nice Plus already..
Nautilus remains at the top of my watchlist.

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gronk
Guest
gronk
July 24, 2011 3:09 pm

Either one. He is probably neither digging nor working.

H.P.
Guest
July 24, 2011 8:56 pm

Bought some Nautilus recently. I liked the story and the fact that three majors are majority shareholders. They don't like to throuw their money out the window. I also like the advances in Seabed retrieval equipment over the last year and that the local government not only gave them the only permits for mining the area, but also have a stake in the company.

We'll see…. .http://Retirefund.Blogspot.com

blackjack
blackjack
August 5, 2011 10:56 pm

there is no doubt that PNG has plenty of gold copper silver etc

the problem is that PNG has stopped many mines dead in their tracks

one only has to look at BOGANVILLA COPPER – from memory i think RIO TINTO had something to do with it and you will see how easy it is to loose your money

the traditional land owners have the power – so be carefull

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Lisa
Member
Lisa
August 14, 2011 4:27 pm

But the teaser says they know a way to get in without buying the pink stocks, or the canadian shares. Wat were they talking about?

bge11
Guest
October 4, 2011 1:59 pm
Reply to  Lisa

The company is also listed on the UK AIM market (Ticker NUS). It was in a downtrending channel, and I made a quick 24% when it rebounded from the lower channel, selling near the top of the channel. At present, it seems to be on the way down to the lower channel again.

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