Alex Green’s “No. 1 Stock in 2019” — $3 “Single Stock Retirement Plan” trading under a “Secret Name”

Oxford Club says "It’s Generating More Revenue Than IBM, Facebook and Even Google... Yet It’s Ultra-Cheap... and Trades Under a Secret Name" as the "Son of a Police Officer Shocks the World" -- so what is it?

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, January 7, 2019


This article was originally published on July 16, 2018, but questions continue to pile in and new ads out this week indicate that it’s also Alexander Green’s “top stock for 2019” … so we’re re-sharing it here. It has NOT been updated or revised since July, and the ad is also unchanged as far as we can tell — the stock teased is down by 10-15 percent over the past six months.

Alexander Green at the Oxford Club has a new ad out for his “single stock retirement plan” that’s sending a ton of questions our way — and you can see why. He’s promoting this one stock as being able to deliver a “multimillion-dollar retirement”, and there are obviously huge numbers of us holding out hope that there’s a way to “save” the retirement we know we’re not financially prepared for.

Here’s a little taste:

“I’m going to show you how a modest investment in a single $3 stock could generate a multimillion-dollar dream retirement in the coming years.

“I call it the ‘Single-Stock Retirement Plan.’

“Some might find the idea of retiring on one stock outlandish, yet many thousands of Americans have already done it.

“In fact, as you’re about to see, the 20 wealthiest men and women in America today made their fortunes thanks largely to a single stock.”

And he says that if you’re going to retire on one stock like those wealthy men and women did (though they mostly built businesses, they didn’t invest passively in one stock), Green says it has to be “the perfect stock.”

He’s even got a checklist for what “perfect” looks like when you’re seeking this “dream stock” for a one-stock retirement… which is when the clues start to drop in about what stock he’s pitching:

“Leader in cutting-edge technology….

“products used by billions of customers…

“profit margins protected [patents, trademarks, etc.]…

“hundreds of billions of dollars in future sales and profits… contractually guaranteed…

“pay an enormous dividend.”

And he says this “perfect” stock should have catalysts — upcoming announcements that could drive the share price — and that the “one key element” is that the stock must be “undiscovered.” And that it should “trade for a just a few dollars a share.”

The per share business is silly, of course, but investors do get hung up on the idea of paying a low per-share price as a prerequisite for huge future gains. Different countries and different eras have different expectations for “per share” pricing — some large Australian companies trade at what we would think of in the US as “penny stock” prices, for example, and it used to be that most large US companies would aggressively manage their share price, using stock splits, to keep it in the $40-100 range. The market cap and the valuation of the company are what matters most, the price per share is mostly irrelevant.

But anwyay, that’s all a lead-up to this stock that Alexander Green is teasing… what other clues do we get? From the ad:

“I only recently uncovered it.

“And if you move quickly – before an upcoming announcement set for August 20 – this $3 stock could hand you the kind of carefree retirement most people only dream about.”

And then some specifics…

“The company has inked deals with Cisco, Microsoft, Intel, Sharp, IBM, Hewlett Packard, Nintendo, Sony, Nokia and Apple…

“In total, I expect it to receive more than $34.5 BILLION from these partnerships alone….

“According to data from Intellectual Property Watchdog, the firm has quietly amassed one of the largest tech patent libraries of any company in the world.

“It has 29,187 patents inside the United States and 49,599 registered globally.

“You can see why the world’s most famed tech companies are all signing blockbuster deals with this little-known firm trading for $3.”

And it sounds like this is not a small company, despite that $3 share price…

“… earnings per share recently surged 106%.

“And I expect the company to hit $164 billion in annual sales as early as 2019.

“The company pays a big dividend too… 116% bigger than the S&P 500 average.”

Why is this stock “unknown?” Green says it “does not trade in a normal way” and it’s not on a US exchange… and, far more mysteriously, that it “literally trades under a secret name.”

So that’s enough to get our answer, I bet, but let’s throw a couple other clues into the Thinkolator…

“A major multibillion-dollar deal that involves both Apple and Donald Trump is about to bring this secret company into the mainstream….

“… the $3 stock I’m talking about had very humble beginnings.

“It was started by the blue-collar son of a career police officer….

“… he scrounged together $7,500 in seed money and went to work.

“He founded a tech company, but a very different kind…

“He realized that he probably couldn’t compete directly with the Apple, Amazon, Samsung and Google of the world.

“But if he could quietly do business with these tech giants, he just might turn his own venture into a successful company.”

He started out building computer hardware — the chassis for a desktop computer, and then aggressively expanded to build and provide components for all kinds of tech products. Green cites a few recent contract examples”

“The company has signed an agreement to build eight different motherboards for Intel.

“It’s also building five more for the $5 billion semiconductor company Advanced Micro Devices.

“It’s building LCD screens for Sharp in an $8.8 billion production plan.”

And a dozen others, components for Amazon and Nokia and Acer and Nintendo and Apple. So who is it?

This is, as several readers have already figured out, the Taiwanese company Foxconn, known for playing a major role in assembling Apple’s iPhones but also a bit supplier to most of the world’s gadget makers. Foxconn is the world’s largest contract manufacturer and one of the largest private employers in China (if not the largest), and is one of the largest tech companies in the world (at least on a revenue basis).

And the “secret name?” Foxconn is the more widely-known name of the company, adopted when they were trying to get more international sales around 1980, and its the name you’ll see most articles use (as when they discuss the massive “Foxconn City” in Shenzhen, which has more than 200,000 workers), but the actual name under which it was founded (in 1974) is Hon Hai Precision Industry, and it’s still listed under that name in Taiwan. You can see the company’s own description of itself on their website here.

So yes, I suppose it’s kinda “secret” that Foxconn, the contract manufacturer that most tech investors have heard of, is actually Hon Hai — though certainly all of the institutional investors who own the lion’s share of this large cap stock are obviously aware.

And yes, it’s technically a $3ish stock, though that requires some currency translation — it trades in Taiwan at ticker 2317, and closed yesterday at T$82.80, which in US$ would be $2.70.

And yes, it’s not particularly difficult to trade the stock in the US — there is an ADR representing the Taiwanese shares for US investors, it trades OTC at HNHPF (sometimes has been HNHPD), with each US OTC share equaling two shares in Taiwan. There are similar depository receipts trading in London at HHPD, also representing two Taiwanese shares each. The overwhelming majority of trading volume is in Taiwan, as you might imagine, so that’s where the “fair” price is set, but the London and NY trading tends to be very close to that price most of the time despite the lower volume.

So if you want to buy in the US, technically you’re paying $5.40 or so per ADR… but each one is two shares, so I suppose you can say it’s “secretly” a $3 stock.

All that mystery and intrigue is beside the point, though — the question is, do you want to own a piece of this gigantic electronics company? Here’s what I can tell you about it:

It’s a big company, the market cap is just under US$50 billion… so it’s not likely to rise 1,000% over the next decade, and it’s not a small cap rising star just because the share price is fairly low. Hon Hai is the second largest stock in Taiwan, trailing only the massive Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM).

Hon Hai/Foxconn is priced at a steep discount to the broader market, and has underperformed the broader market, for a long time. The shares trade at about 10X trailing earnings and 1.3X book, with a price/sales of only 0.3, and the dividend is very high — likely to be near 5% over the next year, though the payout varies pretty widely.

That hasn’t helped the stock much, I’m afraid, it’s been in a pretty steep decline since the highs of last summer and has not been able to generate any meaningful share price growth for a long time. Even if you bought at the very bottom of the market (for Hon Hai, at least) in November of 2008, you would have gains of only 150% over that near-decade, including dividends… far short of the 350% return of the S&P 500 over that time. And almost 1,800% for Apple, Foxconn’s most important customer. Here’s what that looks like, for the visual learners among you:

Which does serve, at least, as a helpful start to a thought exercise about who profits from hit products — is it the designers, the developers, or the companies who sell them parts and assemble the actual gadgets? Lots of things go into that, and there are plenty of growing and profitable component makers, and Foxconn has certainly made a profit most of the time over the years, but the two things that seem to me have the most impact on compounding long-term growth in the sector are sustainable brands and some measure of uniqueness. Suppliers can do very well when their product or chip or whatever is better than the competition, but they also have to keep that edge… or make the component an in-demand brand or a near monopoly, as Intel did 30 years ago with their “Intel Inside” branding campaigns for chips and their tight partnership with Microsoft.

That’s what I’d look for when researching Foxconn… where do they have the opportunity to become more than an anonymous assembler? What’s keeping them from having to compete on price? If the shares are down just because of the burgeoning trade war fears, which could obviously have an impact on one of China’s largest exporters, then perhaps this lower price is a buying opportunity — but Foxconn shareholders have failed to really benefit from sales growth or new businesses or booming iPhone sales for a long time, trade war or no trade war, so I imagine there are some structural problems behind their relatively weak performance.

The stock does also carry some political and regulatory risk, or at least “headline risk” because of the frequent complaints and lawsuits about worker treatment at its many gigantic factories around the world. We all remember the stories about suicides by Apple iPhone workers, I bet, and those were Foxconn stories about the pressure, secrecy, long working hours and employee stress in Shenzhen, but similar smaller-scale stories seem to pop up with some frequency. Hopefully the US factory that Foxconn is building in Wisconsin, following some mega incentives from the government, will be a bit kinder and gentler, we’ll see.

Foxconn gets lumped in as the “iPhone maker” by most investors, so the share price tends to react to the iPhone cycle as massive predictions of huge sales volume send the stock climbing and slower sales, like we’ve seen recently, help to pressure the stock… the company is obviously far more than “just” Apple’s main manufacturing partner, though I don’t know if that will help to smooth things or create a real growth trend for the stock.

They’ve been aggressively expanding into new businesses and buying up brands and technologies for a long time, most recently with their acquisition of Belkin this year… and yet adding more second-tier brands and low-margin businesses in very competitive sectors doesn’t necessarily give them better profitability. My impression, as someone who admittedly has done very little research on this stock so far, is that the pressure of the low-margin contract manufacturing business, where companies like Apple push them to get costs lower and lower each year, seems to have kept them from showing any real sustainable earnings growth on the back of the growth in the business… so if Alexander Green ends up being right about this being a “one stock retirement” idea, it will likely be because Foxconn starts to get a little more leverage over the actual brands whose products they make, giving them a chance to increase margins… or because they finally move up the “value added” chain a bit, as they’ve been trying to do recently with their push into the automotive business.

I have a hard time predicting huge success for Foxconn, but it’s certainly possible — and I haven’t read much about their current business and certainly know less about them than Alexander Green does, so take my skepticism with, well, a bit of skepticism… maybe the “one stock retirement” hype from the Oxford Club and my skepticism can balance out a bit, and then you can go into your analysis fresh and unbiased and make your own call. It’s definitely a cheap stock, so you’ve at least got that going for you.

So please do go forth, researchify for yourself, and let us know what you think about Hon Hai and its prospects for the next few decades. Just use the friendly little comment box below… and thanks for reading!


Irregulars Quick Take Paid members get a quick summary of the stocks teased and our thoughts here. Join as a Stock Gumshoe Irregular today (already a member? Log in)

275
Share your thoughts...

avatar
110 Comment threads
165 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
165 Comment authors
ShivaDavid WalkerSirajMikeIra Bliss Recent comment authors

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

KJC
Guest
KJC

Thank you Travis, I got this “pump” from Oxford club (ala Green) back in Aug… and then again more recently… so I have followed this stock since Aug… and… NOTHING!! It has barely even moved at all!… What a joke… Thanks again…

Add a Topic
366
catherine
Irregular
catherine

KJC, I’m not surprised that you think this stock has barely moved, because when HNHPF did a recent reverse stock split (5 became 4) and became HNHPD, it was barely acknowledged. So while the SP might look similar, it’s actually down 20%, isn’t it? I would expect it would be down somewhat on other exchanges too.

Alex Green does prefer buying on a different exchange, but I only wanted to dip my tow in, not buy 1,000 shares, so I own HNHPD.

Add a Topic
1395
backoffice
Member

where did you buy it? Ive been told I have to but a 2,500 position in the stock where I would only want to throw about 200 shares

Scott Braddy
Guest
Scott Braddy

You can buy it with E*TRADE under the ticker symbol HNHPD. Each share is actually two shares of Hon Hai perception when you buy this ticker symbol. The other way buying 2317 Is bought through international trading with various firms such as Fidelity but it’s more expensive when purchasing it this way. I bought some and it’s roughly $150 for the transaction completed and you have to buy 1000 Incremented shares. hNHPD Can be bought at any amount.

Add a Topic
3791
Add a Topic
3600
Yveca
Guest
Yveca

Hey Scott can you send me the link to purchase one trade if you don’t mind

Melody
Guest
Melody

Where can I buy into this stock safely

troywilson15
Member
troywilson15

you have to buy it in blocks which is 1000 shares at a time it will be good long term talk is there thinking of building 6 to 9 companies across US but just heard theres some kind of delay?

Mike Pincher
Guest
Mike Pincher

But, Irregular, Green talked about dividends. Are you receiving dividends from this stock that make it worth it on that basis?

Add a Topic
152
Sara J
Guest
Sara J

KJC, I am the “proof” of being “pumped up” from the Oxford Club at about the same time last summer that you heard the sales pitch. The only difference is that, [I am hesitant to say], I bought the shares and lost over $2,000.00 when the stock did a reverse split not too long after I had bought it…ugh! I waited a short time and decided to “get outta’ Dodge”, PDQ! There is an article in “The Verge”, (2018), which has a pretty clear message, re the plans for the so-called ‘massive expansion’ of Foxconn… seems like there’s a good… Read more »

Add a Topic
366
Add a Topic
6290
tonofelephant
Member
tonofelephant

Recently the FOXCONN building is no longer going to house 13,000 workers but have 5,000 – 1,000 workers – mostly engineers. Foxconn’s thinking is it is too expensive to manufacture in USA.

Add a Topic
6290
Yash
Guest
Yash

Hey then write back to Oxford communiqué
Let’s see what he reply back to you. I own 700 shares as well and i can only little movement but they says it’s long term growth

Add a Topic
6291
Charlie B
Guest
Charlie B

I was told by Oxford to buy it under HNHAF which I did at $2.98 which I did about 6 months ago. Now it about $2.27 a 30% plus loss.

Scott
Guest
Scott

You probably will have to wait at least a year or two from now for HNHPD and HNHAF to take off. Foxconn has broke ground in Wisconsin and construction is there in a big way. I pass by there a few times a week and it is a big deal. It even effects about 10 miles of Interstate highway that is under construction. My guess is Foxconn will need to be up and running with good news to popularize the stock.

dr dolittle
Irregular
dr dolittle

I put the ticker symbol in on schwab and got nothing any ideas?

Charlie B
Guest
Charlie B

I can get results on Fidelity on my Symbol HNHAF but i the result are old like 2 weeks ago

Add a Topic
3600
Brian
Guest
Brian

Call schwab global. Tell them to pull up ticker Hnhaf and purchase shares.

wabrick
Member

You have to call the International Trade Desk at Schwab.

Charlie B
Guest
Charlie B

I have already lost 30+ % On HNHAF plus when the stock split I lost 200 shares out of 1000 so now it shows 30& lost and 200 shares less. I cant beleive OXford is pushing this scam again

Sara J
Guest
Sara J

I agree. I have a loss of over $2,000 on $9,900+ since their reverse stock split which also changed my cost basis to $3.04/share!
I am seriously thinking of following up with Alex Green regarding this sales pitch…what a disappointment…I am truly at an impasse as just what to do. I WILL get a refund on my membership.
I have read and joined several “pitch sales” only to believe that the pitch is, or may be an inside pitch to boost personal

Add a Topic
1395
liberallez
Member
liberallez

I decided, years ago that Oxford Club was an over hyped BS machine.
As for BS…watch Alex’s eyes as he talks. The man is a lousy liar. He blinks long and hard which is a well known “tell.”
Then, as soon as I saw the OC mentioned I came over here to see what Travis had to say.
As expected, the BS was confirmed.

MachineGhost
Guest
MachineGhost

Long and hard blinking is only valid during actual lying; afterwards when not lying they have to blink 8x faster than normal.

Charlie B
Guest
Charlie B

Scott, I might be better off dumping this dam stock. I can not wait for pie in the sky to come thru in 2 years. I just lost $1000 plus 20% lost on the stock split

David Wade
Guest
David Wade

Bought 5000 shares several months ago
Sunk a lot of money into this stock. Now with reverse split and stock frozen so can’t even sell it if I wanted to. Would just as soon cut my losses and run. Why it s he still trying to sell a newsletter tied to this crap stock. And I paid almost a hundred bucks in fees to buy it on the Taiwanese exchange. Big loser!!!

Charles Ball
Guest
Charles Ball

I am Chharli B I got hit bad too and if I could I would turn them in to the FTC. I was lucky I sold mine at about 40% loss and when I saw what you said I felt lucky. I am disgusted with The Oxford Clud

lburson
Member
lburson

I share in each of your frustrations. I finally took my lumps, and reluctantly dumped this very questionable push by Alexander Green and Oxford Club. Thankfully, I got out over 75% of my position earlier this month at a 11.5% loss. I stayed in with the remaining 25% with a longer term focus which continued to devalue rapidly. Within a few days there were reports that Foxconn intended to ship workers in from Taiwan for the new plant in Wisconsin and the ADR share price dropped below $5.00. At the same time, production issues with Apple’s iPhoneX line continues to… Read more »

Add a Topic
4241
Add a Topic
6290
MachineGhost
Guest
MachineGhost

Any frustration is coming from n00b ignorance in not understanding exactly what “retirement stock” means. It doesn’t mean one month, one year or even two years, it meants a decade and longer.

Add a Topic
1209
Dan
Guest
Dan

I’m very ignorant in the area of stock investments. Other than prepackaged stock portfolios through my employer, I have no experience with stock buying, trading or whatever the appropriate term would be. Even so, as soon as I heard Mr. Green refer to a stock with a “secret name” I realized I was wasting my time. Thanks for the article!

Add a Topic
586
Scott
Guest
Scott

I wouldn’t call it a waste of time. Mr. Green isn’t the only analyst that said Terry Gou quietly built his empire Hon Hai Precision Industry (Foxconn).

Add a Topic
3791
nurselisa
Irregular
nurselisa

I was intrigued by the presentation that Mr. Green; but as I was about to get ahold of the information the website went blank! I tried to get it back to no avail. I wish I knew how to get it back.

catherine
Irregular
catherine

nurselisa, maybe I can save you $99. If you go to the top of this page, click on “Newsletters” then click on the 2nd choice, I think it’s “Teaser Tracking.” This shows how well each of the pushed stocks are doing. For some reason Alex Green is not listed under the editor column, so if you scroll down, the stock (HNHPD) is the first one with a blank space for editor, which makes it easier to find. I bought mine above $5 (for the 2 shares), then there was a reverse stock split where you got 4 share for every… Read more »

Add a Topic
1395
Add a Topic
6291
saint stephen
Member

Stockgumeshoe dodges another bullet for me. I love this newsletter. It’s worth every penny.

Nodrog
Guest
Nodrog

The Oxford Club membership package, which, after reading this article I am reluctant to do, promises information on how to get 10% return on Certificate of Deposits. Many, many retirees, or those who are close to retiring, would love to know about that. Does anyone have any information they can share on purchasing 10% CDs?

Add a Topic
366
Charles Ball
Guest
Charles Ball

It was s bad stock. Lost 50 percent over last 9 months. Check out Foxconn. So called secret name. They are A Taiwan company with Apple as one customer. Check out the stock price movement. You can’t grt an accurate up to date figure.

Scott
Guest
Scott

Sorry to hear that. Theirs always a right time to buy.

lburson
Member
lburson

Charles, you can’t find any information prior to November due to the reverse ADR split. Each ADR unit equals 2 shares, however with the split each ADR unit reduced to 1.6 shares effectively. The same happened with HNHAF as Foxconn purchased outstanding shares through partial share buyback with small dividend to “offset” the loss. The hope for the investor was that reduced outstanding shares would help stabilize the value and long term price.
Share price dropped after the split, and has remained in the 4.60 – 4.70 range for the ADR. Approximately a 20% drop pre-split.

Charles Ball
Guest
Charles Ball

Yes, I’m well aware of this happening and I dumped all my shares at about 45% loss considering the high cost/fees to buy and then sell the shares. Take a good look at the current declines of Foxconn.How many years will it take for them to show a decent gain.

MachineGhost
Guest
MachineGhost

Apple was nearly bankrupt in 1998. You would have sold then too.

Corey
Guest
Corey

I’ve come to this site to try to gain some knowledge on this stock before I purchased. I’m not trying to defend it or bash it but , For those losing money on the stock, are the rest of your stocks losing money as well? I know my other Investments aren’t doing well at this time.

Scott
Guest
Scott

I haven’t lost money on it lately. As most other stocks have been going down Hon Hai HNHPD and HNHAF have been holding their own. Staying steady right now. I own both and plan on buying more HNHPD.

Add a Topic
3791
jeffreyl
Member
jeffreyl

thank you Scott doesnt anyone read ? Alex said possibly a year or two a forever stock .like ron popeii set it and forget it. all this Alex Green bashing….unbelieveable!!ive got 1600 down from 2000 on the reverse split. i sold netflix in its infancy coz it didnt grow fast enough for me. An oxford rec.I am NOT making that mistake again.Thank you.and good luck!

Add a Topic
1395
Fresholive
Guest
Fresholive

I watched Alex Green’s impressive TedTalk on this secret stock and was hooked. His pitch is all I have been thinking about for the past two days. I almost hit the submit button to join the Oxford Club, but the pragmatic side of me kicked in. I started Googling the titles of the books just to see if I could find the articles for free. I did find two of them, written back in 2013. My big win was finding this discussion and learning more about Mr. Green’s believable pitch. Thanks to you, Travis and everyone who took the time… Read more »

Add a Topic
1395
Add a Topic
366
hammledge1
Member

Travis, as always a thoughtful review. Based on your identification of HNHPF’s dismal labor history and doubts about it having enogh leverage to bend the arc of its profitability a bit more upward, your advice to watch and see makes great sense and to do so more research. Many thanks. May 2019 be a good year for us all. Best John

Add a Topic
4448
Nigel
Guest
Nigel

If their stock price is strongly influenced by APPL performance then it may be a rough ride ahead! Sure their PE is now 8.4 and Div Yield 6.1% which look good on face value – but then again APPL currently has PE of a tick over 12 so looks solid too, Unlike the rest of the FANGMAN stocks…

MachineGhost
Guest
MachineGhost

What’s cheap can always get cheaper. What matters more about “cheap value” is the future growth (or lack thereof). Foxconn has a lot of other customers besides Apple and Apple has the next big breakthrough due for 2020. Short term panic by the dumb money chicken littles means very little to the long run.

Add a Topic
6290
Randall Hart
Guest
Randall Hart

It maybe a while for this stock to go up but they are interesting. They stated that they are in talks to make chips chips in China.

Add a Topic
108
turbomom
Member
turbomom

I read in motley about the 50 billion pot stock…a CEO put billions into it. Is that hydropothecary? What does gunshoe think of that for 2019

Add a Topic
329
Add a Topic
5552
prorsum
Member

Oxford posts this stocks performance in their portfolio review section but it is not in there actual portfolio???

prorsum
Member

They post reviews of this stock in their portfolio review section but it is not actually in there portfolio???

MachineGhost
Guest
MachineGhost

It’s not an official portfolio recommendation since it doesn’t match any of the existing portfolios. It’s a long-term retirement pick, not a trade or a fund. Maybe put it in the Ten Baggers of Tomorrow portolio mentally.

Add a Topic
1209