I’ve got just a few minutes today to decipher the latest Alexander Green teaser pitch for you… this one’s about a cancer drug, which everyone always likes to see (cure cancer and get rich? Yes, please!), and it’s been running for a couple days now. Here’s the lead-in:

“This Cancer Was a Death Sentence a Few Months Ago… One $4 Stock Just Changed Everything

“130,000 Americans just got hope for their lives back.

“Early investors stand to make a potential fortune.

‘A trial of 106 patients showed its ability to shrink tumors.’
–FIERCE PHARMA”

That’s probably specific enough for us to get an answer for you, but let’s check to see what Green’s argument is, and what other clues he drops… more from the ad, which is selling subscriptions to Oxford Microcap Trader ($1,797/yr):

“It’s a $4 cancer-fighting microcap that could deliver massive gains in the months and years to come.

“It’s growing revenue 55% year over year…

“And its brand-new drug just sold over $2 million in just the final six weeks of last year after securing FDA approval in mid-November.

“BioSpace called it ‘a much-needed win’ in the fight against cancer.

“I don’t see the stock behind this drug staying $4 for long.

“In fact, Wall Street analysts just boosted their price targets to $12 in the next year.

“But I believe it could go even higher.”

So what does this company do differently? Sounds like it’s something to do with targeting cancer cells… more from Green:

“Cancer treatment still harms healthy cells as well as the diseased tissue….

“Which makes cancer treatment one more thing cancer patients have to survive.

“It’s like carpet bombing an entire forest and calling it ‘deer hunting.’

“But targeting only cancer cells is ‘the holy grail of cancer therapy,’ as the Breast Cancer Research journal calls it….

“This Drug Targets Cancer Cells Like a ‘Guided Missile’ – Reuters”

The term he uses is “antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs)” — he says this is the “only ADC in history” to get FDA approval to treat ovarian cancer, so apparently it’s a microcap that already has FDA approval (and accelerated approval, no less), which is a little unusual…

And this is how he says these kinds of drugs are like “guided missiles”:

“First, the homing system is a specially chosen antibody.

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“Cancer cells have specific receptors that are different from those in healthy cells.

“So the antibodies used by ADCs are ‘programmed’ to target ONLY cancer cells.

“It’s similar to how your antibodies attack the flu virus without doing damage to your healthy cells.

“Second, ADCs also have a fuse called a ‘linker’ that makes sure this drug doesn’t activate before it gets to a cancer cell.

“Its job is to keep the ADC stable while it travels your body.

“The linker in the $4 stock’s drug, for example, is designed to release the payload only once it gets absorbed by the cancer cell.

“And finally, the payload. This is a pharmaceutical that kills these cancer cells from the inside.

“It keeps cancer cells from multiplying… which destroys them.”

So… it helps treat ovarian cancer, which is a horrible disease for which the treatments often become ineffective for many patients, and it’s apparently cheaper than the gene therapy drugs (like CAR-T drugs), and the side effects are less severe than chemotherapy. Sounds impressive.

Here’s how Green describes the potential growth:

“This ADC is already in trials for other types of ovarian cancer – not just the platinum-resistant kind.

“So by 2024, this drug could be the go-to treatment for virtually all ovarian cancers.

“Of course, this should come with great reward for our $4 stock.

“It opened up a market worth up to $130 million with just this first approval.

“The next approval they’re lining up would add an additional $45 million.

“Which, in total, would more than double last year’s revenue of $108 million.

“Not only that, but this little stock is already growing revenue at a blistering 55% year over year.”

And there’s apparently hope beyond that, with other treatments in the pipeline:

“This tiny stock also has drugs for two types of blood cancer in Phase 2 trials…

“And two MORE drugs for lung cancer, gastric, pancreatic, triple negative breast cancer, endometrial and other solid tumors are close behind.”

We’re also told that this company has been in R&D for decades, licensing out technology to pharmaceutical partners, and they’re still making money from those licensing deals, but that they’re pushing ahead now with their first wholly-owned cancer drug and keeping more money for themselves. He also thinks a buyout is likely, since small biotech companies are often acquired by big pharma companies who need to expand their portfolios (and replace drugs that are going off patent)… and he mentions several times that the average analyst estimate is about $12, with one analyst putting a $22 target on the shares, so he calls it a “5X opportunity.”

What, then, is the stock? That’s almost an embarrassment of clues, so I didn’t even wheel the Thinkolator out of the garage for this one… we can just tell you that it’s clearly Immunogen (IMGN), maker of Elahere.

Here’s the first part of the FDA’s press release announcing the approval:

“On November 14, 2022, the Food and Drug Administration granted accelerated approval to mirvetuximab soravtansine-gynx (Elahere, ImmunoGen, Inc.) for adult patients with folate receptor alpha (FRα) positive, platinum-resistant epithelial ovarian, fallopian tube, or primary peritoneal cancer, who have received one to three prior systemic treatment regimens. Mirvetuximab soravtansine-gynx is a folate receptor alpha directed antibody and microtubule inhibitor conjugate. Patients are selected for therapy based on an FDA-approved test.

“Today, the FDA also approved the VENTANA FOLR1 (FOLR-2.1) RxDx Assay (Ventana Medical Systems, Inc.) as a companion diagnostic device to select patients for the above indication.”

Those paragraphs reinforce why I don’t often invest in biotech or single-drug pharma companies — I would have to look up about every fourth word to make sure I understood what they’re saying. I’m all for more and better cancer-fighting drugs, and this one sounds like an appealing option… even a lifeline… for folks who are suffering with ovarian cancer… but I won’t ever be able to say that I know this company and its products and prospects well enough to make a meaningful investment.

That doesn’t stop you, though — I know lots of investors are far more informed in biotech than I am, or just like to speculate on rising drugs with meaningful prospects. If that’s you, then please feel free to throw your money at this one… just please jump in with a comment below so we know why it’s an appealing investment to you.