Dave Fessler has an attention-getting pitch circulating right now that compares this opportunity to Halley’s Comet — a profitable trade that has “only appeared twice in the last 85 years.”
The idea grabs you, naturally — it is designed to. The whole intro is about what it’s like to miss a rare opportunity, and about how that can “haunt you for years” … like Fessler is haunted by the face that he missed Halley’s Comet’s pass around Earth in 1986.
(If it’s any consolation to Mr. Fessler or others, I did see Halley’s Comet pass by when I was in tenth grade back then… I remember it being quite underwhelming, nowhere near as impressive as the supermoon eclipse last month. I think we had to use a telescope or binoculars to see it. I’m not sure if I’ll make a big effort to view it if I’m fortunate enough to be around when it next makes an appearance, a few weeks before my 91st birthday.)
Here’s how he introduces his investment idea:
“A Rare Event in the Energy Markets is Happening Right Now… Just as Before, It Will Create Gains of 1,000%-plus
“And let me be very upfront with you, this isn’t the type of energy play you might expect.
“I’m not about to give you my guess where oil prices are headed next.
“I’m not here to tell you about a penny stock that’s discovered a massive new oil field.
“This has nothing to do with buying mineral rights or collecting royalties from drill rigs.
“Instead, I’m going to show you an extremely rare trade in the energy markets… one that can go decades without appearing.
“But when it does finally appear, the gains are unlike anything else you’ve ever seen in the stock market…”
Well geez, how can you miss that — right?
Well, let’s at least figure out what he’s talking about. And since you’re already now primed by the “fear of missing out”, we can at least try to save you the “confirmation bias” … you haven’t paid to learn about these ideas from us today, so you won’t have that extra impulse to believe that these ideas are fantastic and “can’t miss” (yet another way that our brains work against us — once we’ve paid a lot of money for something, like $400 for a subscription to Advanced Energy Strategist, we subconsciously want to convince ourselves that it was a great thing to buy… which means the stock tips they were hyping us about in the ad must be fantastic. That’s also why you keep reading the Real Estate listings or car ads after making a major purchase, you want to continually reassure yourself that you made a great deal).
Fessler’s main argument is essentially that markets are going to work — that low prices in oil are spurring demand, and that production can’t keep up with that demand, particularly as OPEC countries are in trouble and need cash, so prices will have to rise. He expects oil prices to rise pretty abruptly, and he compares the opportunity now both to the 2009 market lows, when it was almost physically painful (but in the end, incredibly lucrative) for most people to buy stocks because they were so worried, and to past supply/demand imbalances in the oil market following the OPEC embargo in the 1970s, the oil glut of the late 1980s, and the rise of China in the mid-2000s.
Here’s how Fessler describes the current situation, with the crash in oil prices brought on by Saudi Arabia’s attempt to drive higher-cost producers out of the market — this is probably nothing new to you:
“OPEC is sick of losing market share.
“So this time, it’s trying a new strategy – actively pumping out as much oil as possible to keep prices low.
“It plans to oversaturate the market with oil… drive U.S. companies out of business… and ‘win’ this price war.
“And that’s led to one of the biggest oil gluts we’ve ever seen…
“Bloomberg calls our current situation ‘The Biggest Oil Glut in 85 years.’
“It’s this oil glut – caused by the American energy boom and OPEC’s high production quotas – that created the huge sell-off in energy stocks over the past year.”
But not for long, Fessler thinks:
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