“Trump’s Gold” from Stansberry’s Investment Advisory

A Quick Check of Stansberry's ad: "Will Trump Open Development of the World's Biggest Gold Mine... Right here in America?"

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, January 20, 2017

This is getting a little ridiculous.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a single mining stock as aggressively endorsed by investment newsletters as Northern Dynasty has been over the past few months. So this is just a short note to let you know that, yes, you can add another one to the pile — it’s not brand new, Porter Stansberry has been sending out this ad for at least a week or so now, and it’s dated January 3, but a recent ad for his Stansberry’s Investment Advisory is pitching Northern Dynasty as “Trump’s Gold.”

The argument is functionally identical to the arguments that have been made in favor of Northern Dynasty Minerals (NAK, NDM in Toronto) by many others over the past several months — that the EPA overstepped its authority by blocking the permitting process for the Pebble Mine, which by many estimates would be the largest gold and copper mine in the world if it is built, and that the EPA is going to back off or lose in court.

The argument was reasonably compelling back in the Summer and Fall, when it looked like there would be movement in the court case (Northern Dynasty sued the EPA), with both sides agreeing to mediation… and it became more compelling after Trump’s surprise election victory, mostly because Northern Dynasty said they had met with Trump’s nominee for the head of the EPA and because candidate Trump pretty consistently talked about rolling back environmental regulations, which was widely interpreted as opening up the floodgates for new mine development (or, at least, for letting Northern Dynasty proceed with the permitting process to see if the mine can be safely built without undue risk to Bristol Bay and the large salmon fishery there).

That’s why I have a position in Northern Dynasty through some derivatives, mostly long-term warrants — I think there’s a reasonable chance that the permitting will be allowed to proceed, either because of executive action or because Northern Dynasty wins in the courts over the next 6-9 months, and the absolutely massive size of the mine means that there’s a chance for large gains if the odds of this becoming a real project again improve in a dramatic way because of regulatory or legal action.

There’s still a risk, of course, that the mine won’t be built (or even released from purgatory so it can go through the permitting process) — and whether the probability of that happening is 10% or 90% or somewhere in between, it’s important to note that if the Pebble Mine can’t eventually get permitted and built (as was the widespread assumption until just a few months ago), the stock is essentially worthless. The huge size of the mine makes it a reasonable risk-reward speculation for me, but I think of it like a spin of the roulette wheel… you know that you’ll win big if they ball lands on black, but you’re not sure whether there’s one black square or 20 black squares on the wheel, and landing on red means your money is gone.

Many people have much, much more conviction than I do that the mine will be permitted and that President Trump will call off the EPA’s lawsuit within moments of taking office, which would give you perhaps more certainty that there are a lot more black squares on that roulette wheel than there are red ones, but remember: newsletter editors don’t get bigger and more successful by being human and uncertain, they thrive by having strong and certain views and positions and opinions that get a lot of attention (Doug Casey hinted that this will be “Executive Order 0001”, after having previously talked about this as his biggest speculation in early November, and Marin Katusa, who also says he has personally invested heavily in Northern Dynasty, has spoken several times over the past year about his certainty that the mine will be built, just to give a couple examples — and yes, Katusa used to work for Doug Casey, which stopped when Casey sold his publishing business to… Porter Stansberry. Everyone’s interrelated in the newsletter world, time for a game of “six degrees of Bill Bonner”).

So that’s the story — “Trump’s Gold” is, of course, Northern Dynasty yet again… and it’s getting both newsletter and mainstream media attention (including this piece in Bloomberg yesterday). It’s still a far-from-production gold and copper mine, still is not allowed to enter the permitting process, and still is certainly a speculation — but a lot of its fate does rest in the hands of the new President and his Environmental Protection Agency appointees, and it could be, if allowed to proceed, the biggest mine in the world. I’ve laid my chips on the table, and will wait to see what happens.

It’s also worth noting that the huge volume of attention piled on Northern Dynasty because of the expectation that President Trump will do something to help them move forward has led not just to a much higher stock price (NAK has jumped almost 500% in six months, and almost 200% just since the election), but also to much higher expectations — including some folks who probably take literally the newsletter promises that President Trump will effectively send the Pebble Mine into permitting on day one (which is today, in case you haven’t noticed). If we assume that things don’t usually move that fast or that certainly when it comes to politics, we should also anticipate that perhaps those who were betting on a “day one” move to help Northern Dynasty could be disappointed and sell if progress is slower than that.

Disclosure: I personally have long exposure to Northern Dynasty Minerals through derivatives (options and warrants), as I’ve noted when covering other teasers for this stock over the past few months (I haven’t sold any yet). I will not trade in those positions or in the stock of the company for at least one week following publication of this note (usually the blackout period is three days, but I often extend it for volatile or illiquid securities).


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44 Comments on "“Trump’s Gold” from Stansberry’s Investment Advisory"

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tonybocc
Irregular
5

“the expectation that President Trump will do something to help them move forward has led not just to a much higher stock price , but also to much higher expectations”

Riding the wave until we get closer to March, then I’m going to reevaluate.

JDV1956
Guest
0
JDV1956

NAK is trading at 52 week high, after trading on news and hype…will it actually take off? from here… I am not betting on it, as the entire region of this “potential find” is totally against any mining. That said the stock will probably move higher if the permitting process is granted…but NAK is a lonnng way from actually getting any type of ore out of the ground…I’ll sit on the sidelines and watch

lobstom
Guest
0
lobstom

I can see that it might go into permitting, but get stuck there for say a long while. Looking at the size of the fishery this project has a lot going against it. If I were to jump in it would be atfter a major drop in share price. Like say the one coming up, Trump might help this project along, but he’s not going to turn it into a producer by spring.

thinairmony
Member
-235

Northern Dynasty [NAK] was $5.35High on 4-1-2004 and $21.72 High on 8-1-2007. It wash just .43 cents not long ago. Keep a eye on it. I plan picking up 1,000 shares. Now is the time to invest. Options are something I don’t understand good enough. To old to find someone explain it or a article written in old school language to underrstand. LOL

Karen
Guest
0
Karen

…and stay away from things you don’t understand. For me, it’s annuities!

Rusty Brown in Canada
Guest
0
Rusty Brown in Canada

More like .43 dollars, I suspect. Or 43 cents.

santa
Irregular
5
santa

thinairmony, check out dough.com, tastytrade.com,tastyworks.com they will give you old school kitchen table talk info on options in free 15 minute video bites to chew on at your own pace. very highly recommend doughjo in dough.com on the left side bar

SoGiAm
Irregular
9359

Thanks santa68. 🙂
Also, over 60 hours of videos and much more by Matt Owens available at http://triforcetrader.com/

thinairmony
Guest
0

Will check that out tomorrow. Thnku thinairmony

david
Guest
0
david

I see very low grades so I think that there are other much better options with other miners

thinairmony
Member
-235

Stocks are like lending money. If you lend it don’t ex speck it back. Save’s a lot of anger and heart ache. Old Proverb. DAK is at $2.65 2:00 PM ET. I know you mentioned warrants once. I’m going to look at that and see how they work.

thinairmony
Member
-235

I wrote DAK it should be as follows NASDAQ-Northern Dynasty symbol [NAK], I do not have any NAK.

mseager
Irregular
209
mseager

New subscriber here, I’m loving this site Travis and Dr. KSS, your articles are so awesome and the comments are great too. I bought a small position in NAK after your previous article on Navellier’s newsletter. It’s up 10% since then, so happy to ride the wave and see where it lands.

Dave S.
Guest
0
Dave S.

Might be wise to also use a trailing stop in case you aren’t yet. Small gold stocks can drop off of cliffs.

jyoung0071
Irregular
457
jyoung0071

What are symbols for the warrants, exp dates and strike prices?

KCBill
Guest
0
KCBill

Northern Dynasty Minerals has 3 classes of warrants trading on the TSX. The best place to learn about available warrants, preferred stock, etc is by going to the company/corporation website. Available options are available at my discount brokers website and I assume at all other brokerages also.

Karl
Guest
0
Karl

My first stock to go +100%! I saw 112% today. Good to learn more about what’s driving the price up and what could kill it.

MCGILTON98846
Irregular
-8

I think not on (NAK) too much risk,with out real action.I did get some (SAND)SandstormGold though .Thanks Travis for that rep ort .Ihave ben watching (FNV) and (SLW)in a streamer stock,SAND fit in perfict for me .Please read threw my typing ,I only started on the computer two years ago when I retired after 32 years working as a prion guard.Thanks again for all of the great information. Groundhog

Jason
Guest
0
Jason

The locals voted against this project by a wide margin (statewide). If they try to go ahead with this anyway as was rumored way before the presidential election, then there may be big trouble ahead. Also it is a fact that after the election, donations to prominent environmental groups soared to all time highs and guess where a lot of that cash was headed

Karen
Guest
0
Karen

After seeing Trump Champagne being sold off the counter at my local packy, think I’ll sit this one out. It’s all hype, imo.

Link Quist
Guest
0
Link Quist
I liked NAK below $2, but then again, if Trump does audit the FED and return us to a Gold Standard, then it is GAME ON for just about every Miner… I find more value in First Mining Finance at the moment, as it is trading at about $.64/share, but given the TOTAL SIZE of NAK, it is cheaper than Continentals’ (CGOOF) Buritica (~$3.40 but Fully Permitted), Lundin’s (FTMNF) Fruta del Norte (~$4.25 also Fully Permitted), NovaGolds’ (NG) behemoth Donlin, which is partially owned by Barrick, the KSM owned by Seabridge (SA) which is absolutely enormous with 75M oz Au,… Read more »
Marco Polo
Irregular
30
Marco Polo
Trump can’t return us to a gold standard, Congress has to, and the likelihood of that is the same as being lasered by an alien in Times Square at noon on Friday. The more interesting play is to get the Treasury via exec order to peg gold at $5,000/oz., or maybe $10K. This is an old Rickards postulate. FDR actually did this when re-pegged from 20 to 35, and we had inflation, economic growth and moved up for a short time out of the depression era measurements; equities moved up. Then we wizzed it all away and back in the… Read more »
1paglee
Irregular
213
1paglee
Link, if you bought NAK at less than $2 you are lucky — I bought a few thousand NAK at 2.06 and am delighted now, but the chart seems to be in a rounding top so it bears watching. I dived in when I read that a competent investment group around a month ago had invested $25 MM in a special deal at $1.75. The charts for CGOOF look poised for growth — a P&F triple top now at 3.41 — if it penetrates to 3.50, I may buy some. But FFMGF is too cheap and I cannot find a… Read more »
Myron Martin
Guest
0
I owned shares in Northern Dynasty in its early stages and sold it at a good profit years ago when it became evident that permitting was going to be a problem. For several months now it has been appearing on my CIBC Alerts for both daily percentage increase and volume increases which at this point is definitely still speculation, so somebody is accumulating a lot of shares in anticipation of permitting finally being able to proceed. I bought in again last week, maybe I should have done so earlier, but I consider it a reasonable gamble because Trump’s inauguration has… Read more »
thinairmony
Guest
0

Very good evaluation Myron Martain. There are a multitude of things as you pointed out. Holding gold and silver in one’s position is a good hedge. New 1oz.walking liberties silver Dollars and .10 oz $5.00 gold coin circulated are great also. One thing all angles have to be looked at wisely.

Marc Pearsall
Guest
0
Marc Pearsall

I have made several hundred percent on my NDK shares so far and have sold 1/2 my position, so I am sitting on ‘house shares’ now. That said, this mine will probably not go into production for at least 5 years, even if it’s permitted on Monday. I think this is a stock that you ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’, which I will be doing soon after permitting. Northern Dynasty been a fun ride, and as another post mentioned already, lots of other junior mining stocks are good for 10 baggers from here.

A. B.
Guest
0
A. B.
I really enjoy this website, and thank you to the Gumshoe for making it work. As for the mine in Bristol Bay, while I am a big fan of gold/silver as counters to the sloppy fiat currencies, I am firmly opposed to wrecking this extraordinary part of Alaska with a filthy mine. I am sending a substantial part of my stock market winnings to the most vigorous environmental groups who will tie up this wretched mine in court until the whole project folds up like a cheap lawn chair. Playing the stock market is one thing, but ruining the precious… Read more »
Jason
Guest
0
Jason

Isn’t this actually a Canadian company? They don’t give a rats —- about the U.S and may have already signed a contract with China to buy all the gold and that would be treason

Andrew
Guest
0

Great info Travis, looks like the horse has bolted, been on quiet a run, dividend paying miners are not easy to find http://eqibeat.com/top-20-global-mining-stocks-by-dividend-yield/

rainsonme
Irregular
75
rainsonme
several small points. And I sincerely intend no offense; if I say something rude, I did not mean it. 1. I invest for money; its capitalism; its greed. I own MO, although I abhor cigarettes and discourage every smoker I know. If NAK pops with a barbarian in charge of EPA, my advice would be to buy NAK, make money on it, and donate that money to whatever environmental cause has the most impact. 2. The US will not be returning to the gold standard; it is not realistic; currency is rapidly moving the other direction into electronic abstratctions of… Read more »
SoGiAm
Irregular
9359

Rainsonme, believe this article shall interest you – link: http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2016/11/microblog-gold-and-silver-and-hard-asset-investmentsfall-2016/ Welcome and best2you.

alaska51
Irregular
0

I am a commercial fisherman in Alaska for the past 40 years. The Pebble Mine will never be allowed. It can/will have a potentially devastati8ng impact on the biggest Sockeye salmon run in the world. Don’t waste your time and money. It ain’t gonna happen-ever.

hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
7439

NAK…one thing Trump cannot do is create an economically viable gold deposit.

Can someone please show any evidence that all the gold there can be mined economically, even if the permitting is eventually completed ?

Borealis
Irregular
352
HN – regarding $NAK np – The Pebble Mine deposits are massive. Estimates run to $300 billion plus. It has the potential to be the largest gold deposit in the world. It is the largest undeveloped copper ore body in existence and may also hold the record as the largest ore deposit of its type in the world. My opinion is that a lot of money would be made if $NAK received all the needed permitting. The most pertinent question that needs to be asked here is whether the permitting will go through. If you are considering investing in $NAK… Read more »
Matthew
Guest
0
Matthew

This has already risen 10x what it was this time last year– is there any point expecting anything in the way of activity anymore, despite the seemingly huge influx institutional buying recently around the $1.50-$2.00 share point?
It seems like the $3.00 buy-to price given by Casey Research has held.

carlosrivers
Member
1
carlosrivers

its pulling back a bit here. Anybody know what Stansberry’s venture small cap stocks are from todays tease webcast? He claims 1) the next mcdonalds small cap. 2) a property damage insurance co business in a state in the richest part of the country making massive growth revenue gains.
He wanted 5999.00 for three stock picks which includes a lifetime subscription. His newsletters are getting kind of pricey. don’t know who would pay that much.

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