Predictive Financial Services

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allbill
Member
👍3
allbill

although very successful trading with excellent returns, most of the options were high priced at over $8, sometimes over $12, which required too much of my capital

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Ronald Emshoff
Guest
Ronald Emshoff

That is a really dumb statement to make. They recommend buying at the money calls and puts on popular, liquid, higher priced stocks because that is where the best chance of success and the best chance of profit lies. If ATM options are too rich for you, then buy out of the money options at a lessor price. Dont condemn anyone for recommending higher priced stocks or options. If you cant afford a Ferrari – then simple – dont buy one, go another show room, but dont condemn Ferrari for being a good car but too expensive for you.

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Julie
Guest
Julie

I dedicated a small ($20k) account to try them out. I do not trade 10 contracts as they suggest, but usually 1 or 2, thus keeping each trade at about 5% or less of the total account value. Since January I have done very well, but, so has the overall market. Just my 2 cents!

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rfolgate
Member
👍17
rfolgate

If the market is not doing well i guess you could manually get out of a trade that is moving down, They dont use stops and then they lose too much. Some days in my emails they say they dnt trade which is good because some times you should not trade

Julie
Guest
Julie

That is my biggest issue with them, no exit strategy. I do not follow their trades precisely, but as guidelines. They seem to have an ‘all or none’ outlook. I tend to use spreads rather than outright positions, which has worked out very well. If one of their recommendations tanks, I’m not out much.

jnksak
Member
👍0

Julie, I would love to talk to you live 856-906-7463. I used them last july for 1 year and auto traded them so I could not get involved and I lost 23000 in the first 2 months. Maybe they have changed but I would like to know how you are using them successfully.

rfolgate
Guest
rfolgate

I think they changed starting in 1/18 it depends on the conditions in the stockarket. Did you autotrade with Global using Interactive Brokers? I have been watching their trades very closely. They did not report the week of August 6 to 10 as they had a loss on one contract of 1700.00. That is upsetting as they are not entirely transparent. Last week I made 2200 on one contract. I’ll have to look at the month of August to get a better picture So far I am ahead of the game but if I start getting behind I will liquidate… Read more »

Julie
Guest
Julie

Did they not report it to us (subscribers) or just not in their weekly roundup emails aimed at selling their service? I know there was a couple weeks where subscriptions got extended due to so many losses. I don’t track all their recommendations 100% because it’s just a sort of side experiment I don’t have a lot of time for, and I don’t know what their criteria for trades is, which I’m not real comfortable about. I mostly use Theo trade guidelines for various systems (they don’t give any specific recommendations the way PFS does).

rfolgate
Member
👍17
rfolgate

PFS is not totally honest. They don’t report there losing weeks. On a losing
week they just lump several months together or they go over their last guaters results or yearly results Its ok I still love their picks.

Julie
Guest
Julie

My experience (as a subscriber) is that they are honest about the losses, and admit it was a bad week, and extend subscriptions. But if you are not a subscriber they gloss over the bad weeks as you described, which does not impress me. I actually called them out on that recently (they never replied to my email) as they were bragging about being up x amount for the year, when in fact they had been up much higher in April. Even with last week’s $60k profit they are still well below the end of March numbers, so a lot… Read more »

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rfolgate
Member
👍17
rfolgate

I am a subscriber. You have to be a subscriber to autotrade . They don”t lie but they don”t report losing weeks .Check their website. They made 60K last week but for many weeks they lost. I lost plenty auto trading with them but Ill make it back by using your method Julie. With them some weeks you just don’t trade or you do just a few picks. I get your spread strategy on puts. Does it work on their calls? I figure by demo trading awhile I will see what works with them and what doesn’t. I can put… Read more »

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Julie
Guest
Julie

Spreads work with calls or puts equally well. I usually setup a spread at least 2 standard strikes apart, so if the strikes are $1 apart mine are $2, if they are $2.50 apart mine are $5. I try to neutralize gamma by buying to straddle whatever atm is.

Giorgio
Guest
Giorgio

Julie

What are yours gains for this year ?

rfolgate
Member
👍17
rfolgate

I’m down with PFS because of Autotrading. DON”T AUTO-TRADE WITH THESE FOLKS.They have good weeks which they report but they have losing weeks which they just lump into a quarterly report which makes it look like they made money. They are very tricky. I did learn that there best trade is AMZN. I trade it on the shortest option date available and on paper trading with 10 contracts I made as much as 25k in one day, The only good pick from PFS is when they do a morning pick on GOOG,AMZN or BKNG. Their afternoon picks at 3:45pm are… Read more »

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Julie
Guest
Julie

Usually their afternoon picks are cheaper in the morning, if for no other reason than theta decay. Sometimes (like today) their morning picks are 180 degrees wrong. They do not seem to understand the volatility in the market right now, lots of bad or lame picks and lots of missed opportunities. I made money on their picks last year, but not sure how much of that was also my own tweaking of their picks plus ignoring quite a few. Marc- I trade short term, so I rarely go out farther than 2 weeks for my swing trades (what PFS is).… Read more »

rfolgate
Guest
rfolgate

Your the best Julie I wish I could pay you to trade my money. In paper trading AMZN not listening to PFS I made like 500

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tanglewood
Irregular
👍446

Hi Julie, Wow 250%! Can you give us a sample of some of your current option spreads (you can omit the number of contracts). Do you do some of those other option techniques like ‘bull call spreads’ ‘calendar spreads’ ‘butterflies’ ‘condors’? Are you a full time trader?

Julie
Guest
Julie

I would say 70% of what I do is basic debit spreads- bull calls and bear puts. I generally create the spread at the money or just above for calls, just below for puts. For $ .50 and $1 increment options I usually do a $2 wide spread, for $2.5 increment I will spread $5. I try to pay half the width or less and sell for 95% of the width. So I will buy a $5 spread for less than $2.50 and plan to sell for $4.75. Today amzn started moving up and I used $10 wide, $1510×1520 calls.… Read more »

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tanglewood
Guest
tanglewood

Thanks, Julie

tanglewood
Irregular
👍446

Sorry Julie, I looked back at your previous comments and you answered those questions. Now, I have a new question. I have never done spreads but how do make sure those trades are paired if you are putting in limit orders?

Julie
Guest
Julie

When you are in the option chain, Open the box that says ‘Chain type’ and click on whatever combination you want to trade. You can change the width of the spread with the default box. At least that’s how Ameritrade is set up. Think or swim is easier. Just make sure to look at the trade before you place it. You want to be buying to open and selling to open the same number of contracts for a debit. When you close the trade you are selling to close and buying to close for a credit. (The reverse of all… Read more »

tanglewood
Guest
tanglewood

Ok Thanks Julie; I thought you had to pair the trade as separate transactions yourself and that’s why I mentioned how they could get out of sync with limit orders.
Funny thing happened to me yesterday, I had a day order in for CELG $85 calls with a 1/15/2021 expiration limit bid at $7.00 but it expired. Bummer!

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SillyRabbit
Member
👍100

@Julie I’m considering signing up for PFS, and am evaluating their services vs. skyviewtrading. I’m very new to options trading, am studying everyday before I enroll in their services, and so much of the options terminology is confusing even in your explanations. I’m going through extensive youtube videos and other reading materials. I hate to consume much of your time. But… – Do you have a recommendation for virtual options trading? where one can practice strategies. – and humbly asking, may I add you on your preferred chat/social media platform, and perhaps just learn from your trading activities, and I… Read more »

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Julie
Guest
Julie

Think or Swim allows you to trade simulated (SIM) once you have an account. The platform is VERY comprehensive so it can seem overwhelming but worth getting to know your way around, it is by far the best imo. I do not participate in any chat or social media, I see them as time wasters. Some people need that peer group support but I find it distracting. If you do like that sort of thing, check out Theo trade or Tasty trade. Both are run by people who created Think or Swim, so it all connects well. Lots of education… Read more »

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SillyRabbit
Member
👍100

@Julie Loving the long post… Thank you for your input and I will look into all of your suggested resources. Thanks a bunch. I actually only follow /weedstocks on reddit, and nothing else. Right now, even calls/puts seem confusing taking into consideration in the money/at the money/out of the money strategies. *humbly speaking* my thought of following you on some platform of social media/chat was simply to study your trading strategies and then dive deeper and study on my own what exactly your trades did, I guess observe and deconstruct was my thought. As you had mentioned in your previous… Read more »

Marc
Guest
Marc

Hi Julie, has one ever tried to play the next weeks options so when this becomes a looser, it would not be as bad?????

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Jeff Abrams
Guest
Jeff Abrams

Marc, I have done exactly that in some cases. It can minimize the blow if things go south on you, and allow you to recover with a bigger piece of your shirt if so decided. If the trade is a winner, you of course aren’t likely to do as well on the gain, but essentially it’s a gentler way to play these trades until you are comfortable jumping in with both feet. Important no matter what you do, to not Overbet your account on these trades. If PFS has 2-3 weeks in a row of not good luck, you could… Read more »

rfolgate
Guest
rfolgate

For instance they reported a 212K gain from Jan 2018 to the end of July. Then on September they reported a gain from Jan2018 to the end of September of 102K. So they lost 100K up to September. When they lose they will report a gain to date to obscure their loses. If they were entirely honest they would report every weeks losses or gains. They do it for sales purposes. I don”t really care as I see by demoing that they made 62K in one week which is great. the trick is to go with their trades when they… Read more »

Julie
Guest
Julie

Jnksak- If you read all of my comments here you can get a good picture of how I use them. The priority in trading is to minimize losses. I use debit spreads to do that. If PFS says buy xyz $30 puts for $2, I will trade, say, a $30×28 debit spread that costs $1. If they are correct and if it drops below $28 I double my money, if they are wrong I only lose $1. If TA doesn’t support the trade, I don’t make it. Sometimes I miss a good trade that way, but it’s kept me out… Read more »

Steven Kalodner
Guest
Steven Kalodner

Julie, You seem to know what you are doing and curious who else you use and what you do. I would love to connect with you and trade some thoughts.

rfolgate
Member
👍17
rfolgate

Could you explain in a little more detail your typical debit spread on a PFS pick

rfolgate
Member
👍17
rfolgate

Greetings Julie from Boca Raton Florida I should pay you too trade PFS’s trades for me. I have the time on my smart phone to manually trade their picks but it would be nice to have somebody who sits in front of a monitor during the trading day.

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rfolgate
Member
👍17
rfolgate

Could you explain your spread strategy with PFS. I consider you the expert on PFS trading. It would be very helpful to us traders. You said you only paid 1 dollar for one spread. I haven’t traded since 2008 when Iozt a good chunk of money so I am a bit rusty but I’m catching up slowly

Julie
Guest
Julie

I explained it in an earlier comment. You need to study how spreads work, both debit and credit. Whatever option PFS suggests, (IF I buy that particular strike or even a different one) I still create a spread by selling the next strike higher (calls) or lower (puts). The cost of the spread needs to be 50% or less of the potential profit. That way you are always doubling your money if it goes past the further out strike. The recommendations they make that work, almost always go way past the strike they suggest. So as long as they are… Read more »

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rfolgate
Member
👍17
rfolgate

The options are cheaper than buying the stock

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jxb2016
Member
👍1
jxb2016

Predictive Financial Services review Avoid trading with Predictive Financial Services at all costs, if you proceed with their trade recommendations paper trade only, you will see firsthand how reckless this outfit is after a few trades. Here’s a typical trade from last week. AMZN PUT trade, in less than a week runs 50 points to the upside (100% loss). Their primary strategy is buy high sell low. + Huge losses with GOOG,LNKD, CMG, BIDU. Multiple big losers trades all in a row, these trades are reckless and all within a 2 week timeframe. It’s going to take me months to… Read more »

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Ronald Emshoff
Guest
Ronald Emshoff

I have followed them on and off for over 2 years. I dont think you know what they are doing. They are just doing what every guru and trader does. They are trying to predict the direction of popular stocks in the market. Tell me how this differs from any other guru or trader. Yes their strategy is let losers run to 100% loss. But you dont have to do that if you wish. And their winners exceed their losses. If you look at their performance record you will see they are profitable every year. How is this different from… Read more »

Jim
Guest
Jim

This guy obviously works for them, pretty funny. Be careful

Julie
Guest
Julie

Maybe ‘this guy’ works for them, but I have followed their trades since January and can also attest to the accuracy of their posted results, both winners and losers. My only ‘complaint’ would be that it’s hard to get the buy prices they show, but you can usually get close. I don’t see them as scammers like many out there (ie ken trester, etc).

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rfolgate
Member
👍17
rfolgate

I don’t work for them . I’m just trying to see if I van make money with them. I will say they are one of the few newsletters i’ve seen that posts their phone numbers and address. Before 2008 I belonged to an autotrade newsletter that made me close to a million bucks. so I am a believer. Problem is I did not liquidate before the 2008 700 point drop in the stock market which wiped me out. I’m trying to find another good auto trading partner. I made a lot of money trading on my own but I find… Read more »

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Slava
Guest
Slava

Calculate fees. It’s not simple as you say. I did check every single trade they post there. It’s not matching with great profit. Fees incredibly high. With Ameritrade it’s a losses. Not profit.

Julie
Guest
Julie

Could you give us the math on these ‘incredibly high fees’? I use Ameritrade/TOS, and while commissions DO create a cost, that is minor compared to the gains. I average $300-1k per trade, and $40 in commissions. Short term capital gains tax is the expense that sucks.

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rfolgate
Member
👍17
rfolgate

Your exactly correct about PFS. It’s going to take me awhile to makey money but I’ll do it as I learned alot paper trading about the options they trade. I was waiting until I got more money and now I’m going to real money trading. I was rusty as I haven’t been trading for awhile but now I am up to snuff and I can do a better job trading their favorite stock options.

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wb1234
Member
👍3
wb1234

So far, I’ve received 12 trade recommendations. 10 have been 100% losses. Has not responded to three emails to their “support” email address. Run far, far away from this one.

Ronald Emshoff
Guest
Ronald Emshoff

They are a two man shop i think which keeps their costs down. I admit their customer service is not the best. That they are in a very large of similar services that dont answer your emails right away. In the two years i have followed them, i have found they dont answer dumb questions. If they feel your question is important, then i have found they reply in one day. I have recently sent several emails, one they never answered because i was complaining of their payment method. The others were more relevant to trading and were answered in… Read more »

rfolgate
Member
👍17
rfolgate

They are just a guy sitting in his house overlooking the PacificOcean with a laptop just looking at charts and going eenie meenie mo I’ll pick this one, just picking at ramdom