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Examining the “One Device to End All Disease… And It Costs Less Than $50” ad from Radical Technology Profits

What's being teased by Michael Robinson?

That headline might look a little familiar to longtime Gumshoe readers… that’s because Michael Robinson had a very similar ad back in 2013 (and again in 2015) touting MEMS as a “device to end all disease” …

… so, is the ad still about the same stock? Let’s look and see.

Here’s how the pitch begins:

“What’s inside this 14-millimeter chip may soon:

  • End cancer, heart attacks, strokes… every illness
  • Grow the revenue of an $11.1 billion industry by 63,000%
  • Deliver $7 trillion in wealth to Americans”

And then the big promises come that will the attention of all of us… or, at least, all of us who are old enough to have a healthy awareness of our own mortality (which, coincidentally enough, is also pretty much the age range that investment newsletters target)…

“MEMS are the Only Existing Technology That Could Eradicate the Dangers of Disease, Add 30 Healthy Years to Your Life… And Cost Less Than $50….

“Today, the patents for the MEMS set to end disease… 900 of them are controlled by one little known company.

“They Have Been Cleared By the FDA

“And now there’s a way for you to grab a piece of this company’s patent rights for less than $17.”

OK, that is indeed sounding awfully familiar — that’s pretty much exactly the same language Robinson used back in 2013… though at the time, it was 800 patents and you could “get in” for less than $9. The ad is for Robinson’s Radical Technology Profits, which is currently “on sale” for $1,950/year (they say that they’ll send you a $2,000 check for subscribing, but that’s after you pay $3,950, so presumably everyone’s smart enough to realize that’s just one of the typical “50% off” sales that publishers spin in a variety of ways).

So what’s the stock? Thinkolator sez this is, once again, a pitch that teases ST Microelectronics (STM), the giant European chipmaker.

STM has been a hugely successful investment over the past year or so — I last wrote about it almost exactly a year ago when Paul Mampilly over at Profits Unlimited was pitching it with a similar sensor-focused ad that talked about the power of these little tiny sensors and machines, though his pitch was more about the “Internet of Things” and Robinson’s is more about the health applications.

And Mampilly’s pitch was certainly well-timed — the stock was around $6 at the time and was, we now see, just about to begin a huge run of almost 200% to a new 9-1/2 year high around $17. I was skeptical at the time, and, frankly, remain a bit skeptical now even though the stock is obviously far more loved than it was a year or so ago (it’s at about $15 today).

The big change that has happened is that they’ve now had a few good quarters in a row, and growth expectations have come back to STM’s stock — analysts now expect that STM will earn 79 cents per share in 2017 after earning only 28 cents in 2016, on the back of both dramatically improved margins and revenue growth of almost 15%. They have reported one quarter thus far this year, matching estimates and keeping margins at the elevated levels they first hit late last year, but the earnings growth is really expected to ramp up in the next two quarters — so presumably investors will be watching closely to see how this latest attempt at growth goes for STM.

And it hasn’t just been that “the sector is rising” — the semiconductor index has had a great year as well, rising 40-60% depending on which index you use, but clearly STM has done better than that with a rise of about 175% over the past twelve months (over the past three or five years, incidentally, STM has had about the same return as the iShares PHLX semiconductor ETF (SOXX), but that’s because it lagged dramatically for a long time and then quickly caught up this past year).

Skeptics like me have missed the run in STM shares, so you might note that I’m a bit biased on this stock — that’s mostly because it has been a story of government interference and managerial ineffectiveness for so long that I probably am too cynical to give them a fair shake. Too many past promises and reorganizations have failed to generate growth.

This year, that skepticism has certainly been a mistake — the first quarter included a slight improvement to their guidance for the second quarter, so they’re not backing off on their growth hopes. The company is focusing on MEMS and sensors for the Internet of Things as well as on Automotive chips, and those are certainly areas of strength — so perhaps it will work this time (STM in the past has tried to compete in almost all areas, including going up against Intel a decade ago for PC chips, partly because of their mandate to be a “European Champion” in the tech sector).

The remaining bit of skepticism I’ll leave you with revolves simply around timing… STM was also widely expected to be on the verge of returning to growth thanks to their MEMS business four years ago, when Robinson’s similar ad first started running, and the stock was pretty much stuck in a slow decline for about three years after that.

Yes, STM does have about 900 MEMS-related patents these days, and they can churn out roughly four million MEMS chips a day. That sounds impressive, and it may be if the patents turn out to be truly critical for Internet of Things sensors in particular areas, or if STM wins business from its competitors, but STM is far from the only company with a large pile of MEMS patents or strong production capacity — their large European competitor Bosch (which is mostly private, owned by the Bosch f amily foundation) claims about 1,000 MEMS-related patents and patent applications and also has capacity to produce about four million chips per day, and lots of other major chip companies, including big guys like Texas Instruments (TXN) to NXP Semiconductor (NXPI), are active in a lot of the same areas.

So it may end up working great for STM, I don’t know, but the expectations have risen quite a bit over the past year — analysts now expect 79 cents in earnings for 2017 (a year ago, that expectation was more like 40 cents for 2017) and 93 cents in 2018, so that means STM is trading at about 17X forward earnings. That’s not wildly expensive for the tech sector, for sure, and STM is small enough to grow (with a market cap of about $13 billion), but it’s also not unusually cheap — Texas Instruments trades at about 20X next year’s earnings, Broadcom (AVGO) at about 14X, NXPI at about 15X (though they’re still awaiting the Qualcomm buyout), and the truly growth-challenged giants like Intel are much cheaper (INTC has a forward PE of 12). So if the growth continues, the stock is at a rational valuation — the next quarter, which should be reported in late July, will probably be the next indication of whether that expected second-half growth will really materialize.

And… I’ve been quite wrong on this one over the past year, so I’ll pass it back to you — have any confidence in STM’s new growth pathway? Think this will pan out nicely? Let us know with a comment below.

P.S. If biological sensors using MEMS “end all disease,” it won’t be this year… and STM does not own every single idea in the MEMS space… but cool new things do get developed and pushed forward every year. There’s an interesting article from Electronic Engineering Journal here from about 18 months ago that summed up where some of the MEMS technologies were at the time, which I think helps to provide some good perspective.

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Disclosure: I own shares in Qualcomm, which is mentioned briefly above. I don’t own any other stocks mentioned above, and will not trade in any stock covered for at least three days per Stock Gumshoe’s trading rules.

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John Gomes
Member
John Gomes
June 12, 2017 2:30 pm

DR. kENT Moors ORO BLANCO magic source of energy’ , can this be real.

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Playfulhair
Member
Playfulhair
July 29, 2017 1:40 am
Reply to  John Gomes

If I bought some Oro Blanco, what exchange ? Is that the one in Sweden, Switzerland?

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Ken Jacobson
Ken Jacobson
June 12, 2017 2:37 pm

No this stock that they are referring to is hewlit packer

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5971
Ken Jacobson
Ken Jacobson
June 12, 2017 2:38 pm

Hewlett-Packard

Michael Jorrin, "Doc Gumshoe"
June 12, 2017 4:44 pm

These tiny electronic devices may be able to detect signs of lots of diseases, but preventing & ending those diseases is another matter. To that I say, fat chance! But that doesn’t mean they won’t make a lot of money. Good luck, best, Michael Jorrin (aka Doc Gumshoe).

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Jack
Guest
Jack
June 12, 2017 4:49 pm

Bought at 9.31. Still looking for more upside.

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backoffice
Irregular
June 13, 2017 11:55 pm
Reply to  Jack

I’m with you Jack, I’m still holding and even adding some here and there.

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eemajin
June 12, 2017 5:12 pm

Thanks Travis. I think I’ll hold mine, but consider trimming. $STM long.

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Andrew
Member
June 12, 2017 8:53 pm

Excellent Travis, looking at semiconductors, the Taiwanese tech stocks still create a lot of interest, many of them are actually operating in China, http://eqibeat.com/top-20-taiwanese-stocks-dividend-yield/

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ehiggin
Guest
ehiggin
June 12, 2017 11:19 pm

Thank you for the great update. I have no idea where he gets his 63,000% industry gain nor the 7T wealth gain, that is why I don’t trust him.

Lee
Guest
Lee
June 13, 2017 9:45 am

Do you really think the world of health will allow disease to be eradicated? Can you fathom no Dr appts? Pills? Procedures? I am sure this device will go the way of the 200 mpg engine and other inventions, due to their greed. They care about the money not the poor person suffering.

btrodden
btrodden
June 13, 2017 10:19 am

Got in on $STM for IoT at $9 but was out at $15 when the target was $12. Back in at $13 and will be long. Also got in on $MVIS for IoT which I’ll be holding for a while.

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Mike
Member
thinairmony
June 13, 2017 3:26 pm

Here is STM web page link – search in search box on top – ( MEMS patent which helps power medical sensors and implants) a list of 33 and some, Third Parties, check it out http://www.st.com/content/st_com/en.html

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thinairmony
June 13, 2017 9:46 pm

Search -STMicroelectronics, MEMS patent medical devices
Recommended Link, Show
Solutions (1): STMicrocotrollers, MEMS patent medical devices are funded by what governments?
Title Description Product Associations
SL-AU-VIPOWER-M1 Car Front Light Solution for Automotive Applications
VIP-M07-ADIS, SPC56B-Discovery, STSW-M07-ADIS

Search results (17706): STMicrocotrollers, MEMS patent medical devices are funded by what governments?
Third Parties
http://www.st.com/content/st_com/en/…/third-parties.html
Krishan Ph.D Expertise: STM32 and ST9 ABISYS Corporation provides development services (hardware, firmware, and software) for biometrics, industrial automation, medical devices, consumer electronics, and security devices. Our team has an extensive experience with various communication technologies and protocols
MCU Design Third Parties
http://www.st.com/content/st_com/en/…/design-consultants-for-mcus.html
Krishan Ph.D Expertise: STM32 and ST9 ABISYS Corporation provides development services (hardware, firmware, and software) for biometrics, industrial automation, medical devices, consumer electronics, and security devices. Our team has an extensive experience with various communication technologies and protocols
MCU Design Consultants
http://www.st.com/content/st_com/en/…/design-consultants-for-mcus.html
Krishan Ph.D Expertise: STM32 and ST9 ABISYS Corporation provides development services (hardware, firmware, and software) for biometrics, industrial automation, medical devices, consumer electronics, and security devices. Our team has an extensive experience with various communication technologies and protocols
Medical and Healthcare
http://www.st.com/content/st_com/en/…/medical-and-healthcare.html
in government-funded programs, the Continua Health Alliance, and our collaboration with international universities and leading global healthcare companies has provided us with strong partnerships for further engagement. We address the healthcare market with a broad portfolio of standard devices, taking
Sustainability Priorities
http://www.st.com/content/st_com/en/…/sustainability-priorities.html
people interact. We create and maintain a working environment where employees are motivated and rewarded for contributing ideas that may be useful to the company. Rewards include a financial bonus for engineers who have a patent application accepted for filing and ST Annual Recognition (STAR) awards which
Who We Are
http://www.st.com/content/st_com/en/…/who-we-are.html
~16,000 owned patents in ~9,500 patent families and ~500 new patent filings in 2016) Delivering solutions that are key to Smart Driving and the Internet of Things Rich and diversified portfolio (discrete and standard commodity components, ASICs, full custom devices and semi-custom devices, and Applic
Journals
http://www.st.com/content/st_com/en/…/journals.html
to meet the unique requirements typical of portable medical devices. Accelerating Time-to-Market Through the ARM Cortex-M Ecosystem The development ecosystem for the ARM Cortex-M architecture offers the most comprehensive set of tools, software, and engineering resources of any microcontroller in the
Medical Imaging
http://www.st.com/content/st_com/en/…/medical-imaging.html
high end equipment. Key enabling products are:- 32-bit microcontrollers High-speed amplifiers MEMS motion, pressure and magnetic sensors Wired and wireless connectivity ICs Touch screen controllers. ESD protection devices EMI filtering and signal conditioning.1
Sustainability
http://www.st.com/content/st_com/en/…/sustainability.html
What our customers expect The ability to address all stakeholders expectations ( like the financial community, NGO and governments) to be a sustainable worldwide partner. Conduct of our business with the highest ethical standards and a strong sense of social responsibility Compliance with the highest
MCU Tools Third Parties
http://www.st.com/content/st_com/en/…/third-parties-for-mcu-tools.html
STR7/9 Software USB host stack RTXCusb host STM32,STR7/9 Software USBdevicestack RTXCusb device STM32,STR7/9 Software FAT file system RTXCfatfile STM32,STR7/9 Software Failsafe FAT file system RTXCfatfile SAFE STM32,STR7/9 Software Failsafe Flash filesystem RTXCflashfile STM32,STR7/9 Software Ethernet-TCP/IP
MCU Tools Third Parties
http://www.st.com/content/st_com/en/…/third-parties-for-mcu-tools.html
STR7/9 Software USB host stack RTXCusb host STM32,STR7/9 Software USBdevicestack RTXCusb device STM32,STR7/9 Software FAT file system RTXCfatfile STM32,STR7/9 Software Failsafe FAT file system RTXCfatfile SAFE STM32,STR7/9 Software Failsafe Flash filesystem RTXCflashfile STM32,STR7/9 Software Ethernet-TCP/IP
MCU Development Board Campaign February 2015 – Terms and Conditions
http://www.st.com/content/st_com/en/…/mcu-development-board-campaign-february-2015-terms-and-conditions.html
applications. ST takes no responsibility for any applications which are lost, delayed, illegible, corrupted, damaged, incomplete or otherwise invalid. The Boards are provided “AS IS”, with all faults. ST makes no warranty whatsoever with respect to the Boards. ST expressly disclaims any and all
PCIM 2016 evaluation tool terms and conditions
http://www.st.com/content/st_com/en/…/pcim-2016-evaluation-tool-terms.html
ns. ST takes no responsibility for any applications which are lost, delayed, illegible, corrupted, damaged, incomplete or otherwise invalid. The Evaluation Tools are provided “AS IS”, with all faults. ST makes no warranty whatsoever with respect to the Evaluation Tools. ST expressly disclaims
ST Evaluation Tool Campaign February 2016 – Terms and Conditions
http://www.st.com/content/st_com/en/…/st-evaluation-tool-campaign-february-2016-terms-and-conditions.html
ns. ST takes no responsibility for any applications which are lost, delayed, illegible, corrupted, damaged, incomplete or otherwise invalid. The Evaluation Tools are provided “AS IS”, with all faults. ST makes no warranty whatsoever with respect to the Evaluation Tools. ST expressly disclaims
[PDF] What does precision mean for an op amp
http://www.st.com/content/ccc/resource/…/en.What is Precision for an OPAMP_1 02.pdf
en.What is Precision for an OPAMP_1 02
[PDF] What happens to the M24xxx I²C EEPROM if the I²C bus communication is stopped
http://www.st.com/content/ccc/resource/…/en.CD00004295.pdf
What We Do
http://www.st.com/content/st_com/en/…/what-we-do.html
IS2T-MicroEJ – MicroEJ IoT OS for STM32
http://www.st.com/content/st_com/en/…/is2t-microej.html
appliances, wearable technologies, communication devices, energy, automotive, medical, industrial control, metering, and building automation. Its powerful network of partners, from silicon vendors to experts of embedded systems, contributes to its global awareness.This product is supplied by a third party not
Sustainable Technology
http://www.st.com/content/st_com/en/…/sustainable-technology.html
Transport and distribution; Product use; End of life. As an example of our LCA activity, discover the environmental footprint of a MEMS! LCA Screening There are significant challenges to carrying out a complete LCA for each of ST’s products, notably because of the vast number of different microchips
Maker Faire Bay Area 2017
http://www.st.com/content/st_com/en/…/maker-faire-bay-area-2017.html
science clubs, authors, artists, students, and commercial exhibitors. All of these “makers” come to Maker Faire to show what they have made and to share what they have learned. This is a family-friendly showcase of invention, creativity, and resourcefulness, and a celebration of the
Result 1,2,3,4,>>>>>>>>>>>>>867 pages 2017 STMicroelectronics

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backoffice
Irregular
June 13, 2017 11:53 pm

Isn’t this the one that Paul Mamphilly has been plugging also?

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William
William
June 15, 2017 5:58 pm
Reply to  backoffice

Yes. And he just formally added it to his portfolio.

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takeprofits
Irregular
December 18, 2017 5:00 pm
Reply to  backoffice

YUP, still is in late Dec. seems when a pitch gets noticed by the market all the major analysts jump on the bandwagon with their own copycat versions.

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Georgie
Georgie
June 18, 2017 6:17 pm

Does any know what the 3 Cryptokings ( Cryptocurrencies)are ….please. I cannot afford the price of the Newsletter – even though he promises £200 back!

Idrea
Idrea
June 22, 2017 8:48 pm
Reply to  Georgie

Bitcoin and Ethereum are two.

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David B.
David B.
June 26, 2017 1:39 pm

The device to end all disease is the guillotine. 100% effective but most would choose not to take this cure.

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askforinfo
Member
July 28, 2017 9:00 am

Does anyone have an idea what the $6,000,000 company Radical Technology profits is touting today. They say ” A tiny $6 million company has just won in a historic patent verdict and is poised to forever transform medicine. In fact, the microscopic device at the center of it all is capable of molecular magic that defies modern science. Already, this breakthrough has reversed the mutations that cause blindness, and it’s being honed in the fight against Alzheimer’s, diabetes, heart disease, and cancer. This device is so revolutionary, Bill Gates – as well as the billionaires at Google – are going all in. A major announcement is imminent and Wall Street insiders are swarming”
Any ideas?

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Playfulhair
Member
Playfulhair
July 29, 2017 1:50 am
Reply to  askforinfo

Is this the one where you could get 10,000 of these
“Detectors” on the head of a pin? I got confused with
That and the other. That is another one Robinson
Is touting. It’s in Texas I think he said. And yes, tons
Of people and insiders are getting in!

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julies8385
julies8385
November 10, 2017 12:06 pm
Reply to  askforinfo

Editas Medicine (EDIT)

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ssanford
February 23, 2018 10:13 pm
Reply to  askforinfo

askforinfo, Did you find out the stock name for the tiny $6 company? Robinson is touting it again (Feb, 2018) and says the company and founder just won a huge patent battle. The write-up looks similar to what you posted. Sure would like to know!

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psych
Member
psych
February 28, 2018 10:48 pm
Reply to  askforinfo

Editas (EDIT). Travis did a great review as this was recently re-pitched AGAIN as of Feb 2018. Not sorry missed out in summer 2017.

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Harry
Guest
Harry
March 14, 2018 4:10 pm
Reply to  askforinfo

What is the name of the 6 million dollar company?

epeeking
Member
epeeking
July 28, 2017 9:00 pm

If Bill Gates and the Google people are all putting lots of money into the company, I am surprised it is only a $6 million company.

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backoffice
Irregular
August 27, 2017 5:21 pm

I took a position in $STM back when it was about $6 and I’m still holding waiting for it to move higher.

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Thomas Lambert
Member
Thomas Lambert
September 19, 2017 6:06 pm

Hey gumshoe bellicum pharmaceuticals was supposed to announce a licensing deal today either with Novartis or glaxo Smith kline. Did you hear anything?

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