by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | August 12, 2014 12:45 pm
Ok, this is definitely the “most requested” ad over the last 24 hours — I can’t tell you how many folks have asked your friendly neighborhood Gumshoe to look into “Living Metal,” but the list is getting loooong.
And we are, of course, happy to oblige.
The pitch is from Michael Robinson[1] for his Radical Technology Profits[2], and it’s not just about a hot new biotech company that has a cure for cancer and Alzheimer’s and all kinds of other diseases… it’s about a hot new biotech company that you can buy before it goes public through their Money Morning[3] Prospectus! How exciting is that!?
Well, of course the answer is “super exciting, but usually stupid” … venture investors in biotech companies lose most of the time, just like most venture tech investors lose on most investments. They make it up with the few companies that do spectacularly well out of a hundred or more, of course, but developing a drug even to the point of approval for Phase 1 clinical trials can be incredibly expensive and time consuming — and Phase 1 is often five years or more before a company actually generates any revenue. The allure is always there because we imagine the vast riches from the folks who “get in early,” but unless you’re an expert and you’re “getting in early” on dozens of quality opportunities the odds are stacked pretty heavily against you.
So that’s the initial warning — and I have no idea yet whether Robinson is actually trying to do a private placement of shares, which would be a big and dangerous leap for a newsletter editor to take, or if he’s just trying to give you the impression that he’s going to get you “private” shares. We’ll see as we dig into the teaser.
Here’s how Robinson gets the juices flowing:
“A thimble full of this…
“Living Metal
“Sells for $141,748
“One tiny company has a monopoly on it
“It’s sales are set to surge 24,474% over the next 15 months
“And it could go public on the NASDAQ as soon as August 31”
And he uses the thimble imagery to help us understand just how valuable this stuff is … he says a thimble of gold[4] would be $1,319, a thimble of platinum[5] $1,437, a thimble of diamonds[6] $11,581. And then…
“But it’s just a drop in the bucket compared to what I’m going to show you today.
“Containing both biological and metallic properties, it’s classified as a Living Metal.
“And it can only be found in one small stretch of underwater territory, 14 miles off the coast of the Channel Islands.
“However, its scarcity is not why a thimble full of this Living Metal is currently selling for $141,748.”
So… the image of the bluish liquid and the Channel Islands reference is enough to tell us which company they’re teasing (and yes, it’s a public company — it’s just not on a major exchange), but we’ll let the suspense build for a few minutes…
More clues…
“An international panel of 15 doctors from the University of Liverpool, London’s Institute of Neurology, and the Alzheimer’s Institute in the U.S. have collectively analyzed this Living Metal.
“They officially concluded that it can ‘prevent and possibly treat Alzheimer’s dementia[7].'”
Wowsers!
“124 advanced clinical trials are progressing rapidly.
“They’re taking place at Penn, Baylor, Loyola University, UCLA, and the most cutting-edge medical facilities.
Are you getting our free Daily Update
"reveal" emails? If not,
just click here...“And they’re all coming to the same conclusion.
“This Living Metal can literally reprogram the human immune system to such a degree…
“It can make us totally immune – totally impervious – to some of the most dangerous diseases known to man.”
OHMYGOD are you peeing your pants with excitement yet?
“… it should come as no surprise, that even though sales of this Living Metal are only $2.63 million…
“The story moving forward is completely different.
“Today, every major pharmaceutical company is fighting to acquire as much as they possibly can.
“I’m talking about: Bayer, Pfizer, GlaxoSmithKline and a Half Dozen Others…
“Right Now They’re Paying $141,748 For Just a Thimble Full of This Living Metal….
“That’s because the FDA[8] is set to green-light a series of Living Metal treatments that could solve the greatest medical challenges of our generation.
“And estimates suggest sales of this breakthrough are about to aggressively rise as much as 23,474% in the next 15 months.
“As I’m going to show you today…
“This Living Metal is Looking at Potential Sales of $620 Million Per Year.
“And One Company Has a Monopoly on it.”
Exciting, right? Sales going from $2.63 million to $620 million would be crazy growth that investors would absolutely salivate over. So who’s the company?
“Never in My Career Have I Come Across a Venture Like the One I’m About to Share With You
“Before I begin, let me tell you that there is a catch.
“The company who holds a monopoly on this Living Metal is not listed on the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ.
“You won’t find it on the OTC Pink Sheets.
“And you won’t find it on the London, Tokyo, or any of the major foreign exchanges.
“In fact, of the 27.8 million U.S. companies… both public and private…
“There are only 87 with the unique classification this biotech firm holds….
“I’ll reveal how you can become what’s called a ’round lot’ investor BEFORE it ‘goes public’ on the NASDAQ.
Which the CEO himself believes could happen as soon as August 31st.”
OK, so yes, the company is not listed on the NYSE or the Nasdaq or other major foreign exchanges, and it’s not technically on the pink sheets… but it is listed on the Venture exchange in Canada[9] (used to be called the Vancouver exchange, it’s mostly junior mining stocks) and it does trade on the OTCQB, which is a little subset of the over the counter listings that are not quite as big and transparent as the OTCQX but do pass more “listing” requirements than the OTC Pink Sheets.
The stock is, as several readers have guessed already, Stellar Biotechnologies (KLH.V in Canada, SBOTF on the OTCQB)
And yes, if you so desire you can easily go buy “round lots” either in Canada or through most any US broker on the OTCQB — you can probably buy odd lots through most brokers, too, though hopefully anyone considering a $2,000 newsletter is willing to buy at least 100 shares of a $1 stock (“round lots” just means you’re buying in 100-share increments for most stocks, though sometimes it could be 1,000 or more for lower-priced shares). You don’t need a “Money Morning Prospectus” to buy Stellar shares, though I’m sure they provide a lot more research on the stock than I’ve done.
If you’d like to hear the “bull” case on Stellar, it’s probably best to get it right form the horse’s mouth — they are very promotional in getting their story out, CEO Frank Oakes presented at the Stansberry conference for investors in June and you can see the video of that presentation here[10], or the slightly more updated powerpoint slides here[11]. Those include lots of pages of customers and potential customers for their Stellar KLH, including many drugs in clinical trials that use the stuff.
What does it do? Well, here’s Robinson’s description:
“Your Immune System Can’t Tell Which Cells Are Keeping You Alive and Which Could Be Giving You Alzheimer’s…
“And That’s Where This Living Metal Comes Into Play.
“Its scientific name is Megathura Crenulata hemocynanin.
“We’ll call it MCh for short.
“MCh is a very rare type of protein that has both biological and metallic properties.
“In other words, it’s part membrane – just like your blood cells – and part metal.
“And that combination gives it a unique ability.
“This Living Metal, MCh, Can Actually Reprogram the Immune System of Those Suffering From Alzheimer’s.”
Well, Robinson can call it MCh if he wants to — everyone else calls Megathura Crenulata by its common name, the Keyhole Limpet, and they refer to the pharmaceutical ingredient as Keyhole Limpet Hemocyanin, or KHL. Which is what Stellar’s ticker symbol is in Canada, cleverly enough, so we can see why the teasermeisters made up a new name to obscure it.
This is what’s described as an immunogen — a molecule that can’t be destroyed by your immune system, but which can carry haptens into your system to provoke a strong and sustained immune response, fighting off whatever it is you’re trying to fight (cancer cells, amyloid, etc.). That’s not a technical description and it may not be entirely accurate, but KLH’s anticipated value is in immunotherapy[12].
And the “unique selling proposition” for Stellar Biotechnologies is that they are the only ones who can scale up mass production of KLH from the Keyhole Limpets — because these limpets are (or are becoming) endangered and are in very limited supply in the wild. Pharmaceutical companies can’t rely on divers finding more limpets to use in extracting the protein from them, so the government and other investors funded Oakes as he developed an aquaculture system to create a domesticated and reproducing population of limpets on land. They also developed a method for extracting the hemocyanin from the limpets’ blood without killing them, so they can continue to reuse the limpets and extract more each year as new generations are born and reach maturity.
With the idea, presumably, that they can keep scaling this up over and over — they’ll just need to add more tanks to their aquaculture facility, add more labs to extract and purify the stuff, and track the manufacturing. They say they are the only source of GMP (good manufacturing practices) KHL, and they have at least a five-year lead over anyone else who might want to build a similar aquaculture facility.
So … how will that make us rich? Well, from what I can tell it’s going to have to be from dramatically higher pricing for KLH if and when it becomes a part of a commercial product — right now it’s sold for research purposes, both in researching KLH-based immunotherapies and as a way to test the immune response of other compounds, and Sigma Aldrich has public pricing (presumably they’re selling Stellar KLH, though it’s not branded) at $287 for 100mg[13]. That doesn’t mean this is the price a pharmaceutical company would pay if they came to KLH and said they needed a commercial-scale quantity for a new drug in a year or two, but it’s the only baseline I have to go from. 100 mg is a tenth of a gram.
A thimble probably holds two or three milliliters, and the KLH product is in a vial of 0.75ml of solution for 20 milligrams, so we’ll be charitable and say that we can fit five of these vials in a thimble… maybe you have big fingers. That would be roughly 100 milligrams of KLH, so that gives us $287 as the retail price for a tenth of a gram which is something close to what would fit in a thimble… unless I’m missing a decimal point somewhere (no, it’s not exact — but it doesn’t have to be). If I am missing something substantial, please tell me, I’m certainly out of my element on this one.
So right now, despite the fact that the company’s presentation says that one gram of KLH has commercial value of $40-50,000 and Michael Robinson says a thimbleful (a tenth of a gram) is going for $141,000, it’s apparently selling for $2,870/gram ($287 for a five pack of 20-milligram vials, times ten equals one gram).
Back in 2011, when the company was expanding their aquaculture facility, they estimated annual demand at 2,000 grams a year and said that their expansion would get them to 20,000 grams a year. That would mean, if they sold the KLH at that $2,870/gram price (not $40,000), their revenue potential would be about $57 million.
Now, in this last quarterly filing[14], they say that “Given sufficient funding to continue scale-up, Stellar’s projected production capacity is 4-5 kilograms per year within the next four years, and
up to 20 kilograms per year a few years after that, depending on customers’ requirements and our ability to execute supply commitments.” A kilogram is 1,000 grams, so it sounds like they’re still well below 4,000 grams of production and/or demand today.
Current revenue, including everything (contract revenue and distributor sales) at the run rate of the last quarter, is $400,000 a year. If we assume that they’re getting half of the price that their distributor charges, that $400,000 in revenue per year would mean that they’re only selling about 300 grams a year. That seems unlikely, so perhaps they’re selling it for less… or more of their contract revenue is not specifically associated with the sale of KLH. if we assume they can get that $40,000 a gram that their presentation says is the commercial value, and they can produce 5,000 grams within the next four years (and there is commercial demand), then that gives us the possibility that they could generate $160 million in revenue in four years.
That would be tremendous for a company of this size (Stellar’s market cap is about $100 million now), and should generate a huge profit if such a scenario is really feasible (they’re burning through about $15 million a year in cash at the current rate)… but that’s about where I usually lose interest in the Stellar story — assuming everything else works out, I just don’t get how the stuff gets to $40,000 a gram. Doesn’t mean it’s impossible, of course, I just don’t get it — and there’s plenty of stuff to invest in that I understand a lot better.
They do have a partnership deal with Amaran, a Taiwanese biotech firm that invested $5 million in the company last year and is investigating KLH use in immunotherapy for a couple different kinds of cancer and is apparently in phase II/III clinical trials with those. And they do also have their own clostridium difficile vaccine that they’re trying to develop — that’s still preclinical, though they say their goal for the second half of this year is to advance toward an IND filing (that would mean they’re getting ready to file with the FDA for permission to test in humans, getting to the point where they could do a Phase 1 trial).
But really, those are speculative bets on drugs that I know nothing about — and their own C. difficile vaccine is so very early in the process that it’s impossible to assign any value to it. The real pitch for Stellar Biotechnologies is that they are the sole source for a key ingredient, and the mass demand will drive up production and prices in a pretty dramatic fashion as pharmaceutical companies fight to get the quantity they need. So my understanding falls apart at that point because I have absolutely no idea how many molecules of KLH would be required for each dose of a commercial immunotherapy, and what that would mean for how many grams of KLH must be produced from these mollusks, and, in turn, how many mollusks they’d have to have in their aquaculture facility to turn a profit. So without any notion of whether these numbers that they bat around of $40,000 a gram hold any water, I can’t guess at how much money they might eventually be able to make. I’m not willing to bet the farm on their C. difficile preclinical immunotherapy, so until I can understand those future financial metrics somehow Stellar doesn’t appeal to me.
That doesn’t mean it won’t work for you though, of course — you might wish to take a flier, it’s certainly a stock that has been actively promoted and teased many times and they are very promotional themselves with a strong presence at investment conferences, so the fact that I can’t figure out a reasonable future valuation doesn’t mean the stock won’t go up. The story still sounds exciting, the clinical trials creating the demand and driving up the prices just as Stellar is able to ramp up production, but there are so many moving parts and the clarity on actual possible pricing is so lacking that I’ll leave this for others.
Robinson has some pretty strong-sounding “guarantees” for you as well, should you choose to subscribe:
“Guarantee #1: 30-Day Grace Period
“If, for any reason, I feel Radical Technology Profits is not right for me in the next 30 days, I’m entitled to a full refund of my membership. No questions asked.
“Guarantee #2: The NASDAQ Listing Will Take Place By November 30th
“If this company is not listed on the NASDAQ by November 30, 2014, I will receive 12 months of access to Radical Technology Profits service for free.
“Guarantee #3: At Least One Commercialized Drug Will Reach The Market Within 12 Months
“If this biotech firm does not have at least one MCh-based drug reach commercialization before September 2015, I will receive an additional 12 months of access to Radical Technology Profits service for free.”
So… you’ll notice that those second and third quarantees are just that you can get another free year of Radical Technology Profits if he’s wrong — not that you get your $2,000 back. I have seen no preliminary filing for Stellar to get a Nasdaq listing at this point, but it’s certainly possible that they could do so and I have not read all of their filings. Listing on Nasdaq would add another corporate expense, but it would also certainly lift the profile since they’d be hobnobbing with most of the other junior biotech stocks and would get the attention of more US investors — I’d guess that would tend to give the stock a lift, but you can never really tell… it’s still very much a “story” stock without real revenue and a bet on an uncertain future so you can’t make a firm valuation argument about the shares with a straight face whether we’re talking Canadian or US Dollars.
I have no idea from this spiel whether Robinson is really trying to get you to buy into a private placement of shares for Stellar, which is the impression given in the tease about a “prospectus”, but I suppose it’s possible — they’ve had private placements in the past year at close to a dollar a share and they may well do so again. It’s unlikely, really, since the easy way to buy “round lots” is just to place an order for shares on either the venture exchange or, through pretty much any US broker, at the OTCQB exchange that trades just like the pink sheets stocks we so often see.
I know we’ve had many folks here following Stellar Biotechnologies over the past year or so, particularly because it was very, very, very actively teased by the Angel Publishing[15] folks and Jim Skelton[16] started a few discussions about Stellar back when he was “just” an Irregular[17] (before he signed up to be a columnist with us), so hopefully the Stellar-followers out there can chime in and share their thoughts on the company now.
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First misconception: Stellar Bio is located on a military base and guarded by Marines.
This is a little tricky, another great example of how these copywriters at the newsletters can take a fact, spin it like silk on a wheel, and come out with something to excite the imagination that bears only a small resemblance to the whole truth.
Where did they come up with this “factoid?” Read on ..
The headquarters and land-based Limpet farming operation of Stellar is at Port Hueneme, CA, directly on the Pacific ocean and with direct ocean access. This facility was originally a Naval base. In 1999, it fell under the axe of military budget-cutting and slated to be closed. Stellar, which at that time was searching for a suitable location to began its operations and research, was handed a golden opportunity; buy the base at a price that was so low (relatively speaking) as to be unbelievable and set up shop. They did the deal with the DOD and had for themselves a good-to-go location all tied up in one neat package. Even better, the natural breeding grounds of the Giant Keyhole Limpet lay just offshore Port Hueneme. With this being the only discovered colony of Giant Keyhole Limpets in the world, Stellar couldn’t have found at any price a more suitable and prime location for their work to really began. Easy access to the source material. Plenty of room to build the aquaculture tanks and plants to culture the Limpets in and learn how to “farm”, if you will.
So there is the “military base” connection. Whether or not there remains any sort of Naval or other military presence on those grounds I don’t know. Perhaps some sort of very minor detachment to oversee a few things there that are yet to be removed and considered valuable by the military, but an active and critical-role base with our Nations secrets and defense at risk? I can’t imagine so.
Then there is this thing about being guarded by Marines. What brilliant imagery that calls up. Just think – a platoon-size force of recon Marines, bristling with their M-14, grenade launchers, .60 cal SAW’s, vicious guard dogs on short leases, all patrolling the fence line to tear the face off anyone that might be so foolish as to want to see what a Giant Keyhole Limpet looks like. Com’on. Stellar will give you a guided tour of the place, let you see the limpets in the aquaculture tanks, maybe even hold one of those critters in your very own hand. Yet they need Marines to guard it? Stretches my imagination, and I’ve got a pretty good imagination.
More likely is that there are a few contracted security guards that make the night rounds armed with a radio, flashlight, and perhaps a taser just in case things really go south. Maybe one or two of them are former Marines and that’s what the teaser point is based on. But real, active-duty Marines? Not unless there is, as I mentioned, still some sort of mission-critical military installation on the grounds. And I have no proof one way or another of that being true.
So don’t get all amp’d up with the vision of some super-secret installation out of a James Bond flick. Most likely not even close. Makes good copy, though. Where do they get these creative copywriters, I wonder. Aha! I know! They are all former campaign managers for Washington politicians, people accustomed to taking fleas and turning them into elephants with just a few strokes of the keyboard and a good imagination. That must be it!
Until one of you Gumsters can tell me you have actually been to the location, in person, seen the Marine guard personnel – better yet, talked to a couple – and can tell us that they really are there, I’m going with a no. Or ask someone at the Stellar offices if there are any remaining military presences on the grounds. That would e interesting info to have if for no other reason that to keep everything on the straight and narrow here.
Enough for this comment. Next up: detail on the financing deal and who the heck is Samuel Yin? And why should you care? You really need to know this stuff. Back later ..
Jim Skelton
The Blind Squirrel
I live about 2 miles from Stellar HQ. The Port Hueneme Naval Base is Stellar’s next door neighbor. That base is a mix of military and commercial operations. For instance, thousands of cars from Asia are imported to America through this base and then distributed throughout North America.
Locally, The Port Hueneme Naval base is called “The Seabee Base” because of it’s connection to Naval Construction Battalions. This is not a Marine Base. There is no connection to The Marines. Their are though, 100’s of young American service personnel with guns ready to protect America and Stellar Bio. LOL
So I have read through the various related threads to this, and have read some of your investment stuff before and appreciate the story of telefono mexico, or something like that, and also the reference to KLH and SBOTF in “tiny biotech holy grail” by Dr KSS et al. For me to invest right now the worst thing is the chart and recent uptick. The idea of patents to farm raise these beasts is good, but what of other countries? Could they raise them or something similar http://www.fucited.cl/papers/CCH Antitumor effect, J. Urol. 2006.pdf Concholepas concholepas hemocyanin? I agree that biological production rather than laboratory is much more feasible, as we have been trying to make hemoglobin for decades, and it is not easy. It really depends on the demand versus ability to supply. I noticed calculations of the value of a gram of this stuff based off of research demand, but if used as medication in vivo the price automatically goes up as would even plastic or teflon if used in vivo, probably 10 fold. The adjuvant use for cancer or inflammatory issues may not work as planned, though many are using and developing vaccines for cancer, because vaccines are humoral immunity wheras a lot of these conditions are cell mediated. A B-cell vs T-cell immune response. In our bodies there are rouge cells that dedifferentiate into cancer cells, but our immune system squashes them, and we never know what cancer we were spared. This is in vogue now, but long term I don’t think there will be much fruit. Vaccines will continue, and this has all the earmarks of being enviro friendly and animal loving. Should rise near term, but I will sit on the side for now. I wish you well in your investing and life in general. Thanks for the tip I will invest at some point.
I will also say that relying on process patents even when llegit, in this day and age post the Alice Corp. Vs. CLS Bank is at best a coin flip. Watching what happened to VRNG the other day shows just how far Judicial Activists are willing to go to smoke NPEs and my opinion is that it will not stop there.
This thing still interests me for some sadistic reason.
Anyone have insight on how that special deal was structured? Any idea if it was part of the reason for the spikes up and down? Were they somehow able to dump that quickly?
D
D
Oh please…..this is total tosh. Yes it will go up….at a snails pace. It will go down….at a greyhounds pace. Then it will go up…at a snail pace. This isnt investing, its slime. Some nutty prof is doing his PHD in gastropod and getting mugs to pay his course fees. By a lottery ticket….you have more chance of getting rich.
Now we’re getting somewhere!
To Mikey: Thanks for the info re the military base concept. Nowhere, and I mean nowhere, have I seen reference to the Stellar compound being set up as you describe it. All references to the purchase of the base simply says they bought it, the inference being they own it ALL, not a portion, and certainly not that there still exists a part of it which is run by the military. This is what boots on the ground can tell you. Thanks for the eyes-on description.
To DBMD: Like you said about my musigs, I’ve seen your posts before and always appreciated your insights. You explain things in a way most of us laymen can understand. And you add interesting thoughts as to the investment potential of the stocks under examination. All helpful info.
I get the feeling from what you wrote that you believe I am suggesting this is a good time to be investing in SBOTF. Let me make this clear: I am NOT trying to make any such case. Whether or not SBOTF is a good speculation at these prices I do not know. I’m just trying to keep all the chatter about it which, given the renewed rise in price, has once again created.
Perhaps readers here saw my comments contrasting a genuine Pump and Dump scheme to a newsletter publishers efforts to gain attention and garner new subscribers. The firmer is horrendous and will, 99% of the time, lead to certain disaster. The latter may or may not prove profitable if you buy into the stock they are talking about. The only real reason most of them hope to see a price increase is so you will beome a believer I their abilty to guide you ad subscribe. The up shot of it all is that the P&D people want only to send the price rocketing up and then sell everything with no way for you to get out in time. The Publisher wants the price to go up so you wlll become a subscriber. Do these publishers buy into the stock before writing about it? I have no actual proof of that, just conjecture. I agree with what Travis said earlier that they, in some instances, might have a position. But to do so is foolish and perhaps illegal if not properly disclosed. Being discovered could send the newsletter business into the dumpster, hardly a worthwhile trade off. If any of you have proof of this happening, and it being a widespread infection within the industry, please let us know.
What they say about the company has pretty much the same effect on the stock price in many cases, but the intent of the story is not. That is all I was pointing out. Not that tis is a time to buy SBOTF.
And to Alan, my friend: I wish you’d tell us what you REALLY think, not hold back on your opinions. :0) I love the way you express yourself – you know I mean that. But I do think that, at the moment, you have your snails and greyhounds reversed. I think more likely is that both sides will prove to be greyhounds.
Finally, disclosure. I had closed all positions in SBOTF on 5/9/14. That was a losing trade, having bought at $1.52 and selling at $0.94. Ouch! But I knew the risks and SBOTF was still the most profitable position(s) I have had so far in 2014. I resolved to just fade away from it, and I watched while the price continued to plummet down to around $0.60 per share. That made the sale a little more tolerable, seeing how much more I could have lost if I had remained in. But not so fast, Charlie … then this new newsletter promo hit and things got turned around fast.
I watched as it hit $0.75, then $0.90, then broke over the $1.00 mark. I had not, for whatever reason, seen these new newsletter promotions so couldn’t make any sense of why the rise, why so fast, why now. The Q3 report was good, yes, but not THAT good. Then I saw the mention here on the GS site of the promotion by Robinson and the light went off. The rise wasn’t due to some new deals or improvement in company situation – it was thanks to Michael Robinson and his newsletter. I had some free cash in my “Vegas” account which I use exclusively to trade these uber-high risk high-flyers, so I bought in on July 28 at $1.11. I watched as the rise continued (hit about $1.68), then turned. When it hit $1.58 on August 18, I sold. And, as these things are prone to do, it fell a bit more, then turned around and is now at ~$1.72. Where is it headed next? I have no idea.
I currently have no position in SBOTF and will refrain from trading it for 72 hours from the posting of this message in accordance with the policy all Stock Gumshoe columnists agree to.
Buyer beware.
Jim I really enjoy your comments.
Thanks, Frank. Always a pleasure.
Jim thanks for the long response. I really think this will be a mover one way or another. I just want it to be moving in the right direction. I have conservative investments and BioTech. Some of my BioTech has not done so well recently. I’ll keep this ticker and watch and wait.
Thanks
DMBD:
The biotech sector as a whole is a world fraught with uncertainty and risk. One could say the same about the overall market I suppose, but these R&D Biotech companies, well, they are the tip of the sword in those areas if you ask me. Tread lightly, Pray nightly. Never, ever risk more than you can afford to lose – and I mean that.
Haha…
One of the best mini-Proverbs I have read in years…
“Tread lightly. Pray nightly.”
Love it.
D
A perfect puncturing of pure and frighteningly persuasive hype. Just for once I listened to Robinson’s entire presentation and was suffering from extreme exhaustion after about half an hour ! ! Naturally on the conclusion I turned to the brilliant Stock Gumshoe for some sanity and sure enough you guys delivered. Very well done and many thanks for helping us keep our feet on the ground and our money in our pockets.
been watching biotf live this am. Has gone up 8.25% as of 10;58 am. Looking at the mid morning indicator, means since it has gone up considerably this am is likely to drop in the mid afternoon, traders taking profit. will wait and see. Have no position now, and will watch it closely for the next few days. My guess is that the promo will continue and the stock will remain volatile for the next week or more. Play this right and profits can be yours.
correction I meant
SBOTF Stellar bioteck
I’m not a scientist, so not pretending to be an expert, but won’t the advent of much cheaper & prevalent hemocyanin such as Concholepas Concholepas Hemocyanin (CCH) pose as a major threat to this company. If there is a cheaper and just as effective carrier agent for vaccines available such as CCH, why would pharmaceuticals opt for KLH? I’m considering buying some stock in SBOTF so not putting a downer on the investment as its seems this biotech has huge potential to revolutionize the way vaccines are delivered. As everyone here is hoping a vaccine using KLH is FDA approved I’m interested to find out if anyone else has taken this into consideration?
I understand not everyone here is hoping for FDA approval of a vaccine but rather to P&D. I’m interested to hear the thoughts on the long term potential of this biotech.
Long term I think it has potential. Yes there are alternatives to KLH, but IMHO I can’t see anyone spending the time and money to develop them to a viable state unless there was a clear market for the product. The day that it is discovered that KLH has a market you can bet SBOTF will skyrocket.
Having said that, I think the recent rise in price is due to advertising by Money Map Press, and I’m keeping a close eye on selling at its peak. And maybe buying back in at a lower price.
The teasers have all just sent out ” early” closing entry early due to extreme response!! It was not supposed to happen until midnight omg now what a big up tomorrow ? Any suggestions on when to sell I just have a bit at 14% now which is better than a negative for a novice like me thanks
in response to oliver:
CCH appears interesting also; and i see that it is sold by Pierce, IL.
but who is the company that produces it ? normally by aquaculture.
To All:
The question is answered. The one about how far can this run.
High today $2.38
Current price $1.78.
Hope all longs were paying close attention and got out. You must have known this was going to happen at some point.
Jim Skelton
The Blind Squirrel
PS – the Deja Vue of this entire run keeps on getting more and more intense. The price and time frames are almost in exact sequence.
The dump is on!!
I had a feeling I should exit yesterday but lack of experience again and self doubt won out ,the price is still over 2$ on the TSX-v were I purchased 2.09$ last peek any thoughts on if it could go back up soon Mr Squirrel and any thoughts on my early closing having any effect on volume as asked yesterday ( I need guidance) lol 6 months in and I’m getting a bit frustrated oh well
I have been lurking here for a bit but this is my first post.
By way of a short backgrounder, I have been doing my own investing for 23ish years since I was 20 (with WIDELY varied levels of success) and have mostly stayed away from the touts (this is one of three services worth paying for) unless I see a real accidental gem.
Anyway…this stock…
Wow.
I have been so close to playing this but dang today proved my intuition right. I get speculative but that was one of the most classic dumps I have seen since the early 2000s. It recovered a lot but it sure does not inspire confidence watching what the market makers did to that stock. I also bet some folks have whiplash too…
Almost pulled the trigger at 1.70 to 1.80 (saw a quick dip to 1.68 on the ticker unless it was a misprint) to grab a chunk today and realized I just did not have the time it would require to hawk this thing and you could turn around and see it sub a dollar or over three.
Crazy how these touts work…they are as bad as the shorts most times and Seeking Alpha makes it worse most times.
Not everyone is even remotely an expert and that is why this website is so valuable to me…
Thanks for your work man…you and all of the folks that contribute to this community…it matters.
D
Great points David I’m exploring investing and am so very happy to have found Travis and the other gummies I tried trials of a few other newsletters mentioned but most were far to expensive and I’m never really going to have the time or inclination to do the proper DD for trading investing long term feels a bit easier , that said I gave myself time as long as I didn’t lose capital to “learn” to invest before I gave it over to someone else.my own intuition has proven right at times but it lack the confidence to follow thru maybe today it will go back up now I can’t decide whether to wait and hope or just try to break even all in all I hope that klh can help develop a drug to benefit all who suffer the terrible illnesses that affect so many .
Intuition is a powerful tool if you can separate the emotion from it which is hard for humans to do…
Keep at it. Set hard stops in your mind and just cut it loose if it gets to that point.
The old adage I had recited to me over and over again is
“You don’t go broke making money”
Most of the damage that creates huge wealth loss happens when you do not cut your losses because you wed yourself to a stock. I have done it a few times and one in particular I just eventually hoped would go out of business so I never had to look at it again even though I had quite a few shares left.
Start doing some research on technical analysis as well to go along with fundamentals. I find intuition works better with technical trading shorter term than fundamentals.
Best of luck.
D
PS. I too hope this approach is legit whether this company makes it or not.
Damn, those little critters can really jump……up and down ! I hope you dont get slimed.
Slippery lil suckers! 😉 I am gonna take a pass till God sets a bush on fire…
Or I feel all Vegas-like…
Everyone knows you can beat the House right?
*grins*
D
David:
Glad to see a new member surface here and contribute. I’m sure you’ll find many ways to benefit from the thoughts and ideas each of us have as time passes, as we will from yours.
I’ve been following and investing in SBOTF for just over a year now. It began with opening a blog here entitled “Stellar Biotechnologies: The Real Deal or just more Tulip Bulbs” just after Travis unteased the promotion by Nick Hodge. You can find this blog by clicking on my Author bio link at the homepage. There, in addition to seeing that short description of my bona fides, you can click on the link to the blog and read it. This will give you more info on how this all began and the developmental history of the stock. Be aware, though, these early posts were being done with little hard info to work from at first, so you’ll see some pretty outlandish claims and thoughts being expressed. Mine included. We had a learning curve to go through. But it is worthwhile reading nevertheless to get a sense of what has happened with Stellar Biotech over this past 13 months or so.
One thing I’d like to address in your message that needs clarification. You say ” that was one of the most classic dumps I have seen since the early 2000’s …”. It’s a bit of a pet peeve of mine regarding Stellar Bio that people seem to run a little loosey-goosey in using the term(s) “Pump and Dump” and attach it to Stellar. I would suggest that what happened yesterday, an event anyone that was paying attention had to know was coming at some point (just didn’t know when or at what price), would be more accurately described as a “sell off” rather than a “dump.” Now, I know that may sound a little picky, but I have a reason for it.
Stellar Biotechnology IS NOT in any way a “Pump and Dump” scheme or scam. Yes, there are similar characteristics to the way the stock has been promoted, the price run up, and then a retrenchment. But it has happened for reasons vastly different from a classic P&D. As example, to see a real P&D, call up a chart for VHUB or NNRX. Look at the way the price rose as the PAID promoter sent out daily e-mails to an investor base, and then, in one fell swoop, absolutely cratered in30 minutes or less. And never recovered. And the people that benefited were the insiders that were holding millions of shares for which they paid little to nothing and got rid of I that Dump, and the “Pumpers” who were PAID to write and send out hugely inflammatory claims about the future of the company. That is the description of a Pump ad Dump. It is NOT what happened in June/July/August 2013 and then again now. Those two run ups were caused by newsletter publishers writing up some very positive stories about the company, using some over-the-top creative copywriters to embellish and obscure the identity of the company, and send those out. Their intent was to sell subscriptions to the newsletter, not run the stock price up and then unload at huge profit for themselves and insiders/board members, etc., leaving the average investor holding a now near-worthless bag of road apples. Of course, they do hope the stock price will increase – this gives their sock picking ability the credibility they need to sell subscriptions. But that, the price run up, is just a secondary event.
To use the terms Pump and Dump in a situation where what is actually a newsletter publishers promotion is to confuse the situation and unfairly characterize the company at the center of these things as being some kind of sleezeball outfit. Stellar is no such animal. It is a very real company with real product and real sales and real mission. It has a future beyond the next 30 days. An investor must do some through DD to find out and decide what they think that future holds.
Bottom line here: SBOTF ought not be referred to a Pump and Dump in any fashion. All comments that would leave that impression are misguided and can lead other readers with less experience to think it is something it is not. I encourage everyone to avoid creating that confusion by not using the terms, however well intended. I believe that 95% of all comments on this site are well intended.
This is my opinion based on many years of watching these kind of things unfold, both the P&D scams and the newsletter promotions. I stand by this analysis of the difference between the two.
Lets all strive for accuracy and precision in our comments. Words matter.
Jim Skelton
The Blind Squirrel
Disclosure: I have no position in any stock referred to herein. I wrote this commentary myself without assistance or advise from any other source. I have not received compensation from any person or entity for it.
I get what you are saying Jim and notice I used only half the term…dump.
That was no simple sell-off from the charts I am looking at and have been studying all night.
I am not questioning the company’s intentions as a company but the mechanism used here creates just these sort of gut wrenching swings. All of the cloak and dagger and secret deals etc. negotiated behind closed doors…behind a paywall…
I get it and biz is biz but if anything SBOTF (if they did not benefit from the touting) should be pissed that they are painted with that brush.
Again, you have credibility with me already just from your content on here. The process and methods that were used by the newsletter and possibly by this company in this instance have zero credibility right now.
I continue to be interested as an investor and also hopeful as a human being.
With respect,
David
Jim I’m going to disagree with you here. Words do matter. A pump and dump is when someone obtains a large number of shares then promotes the stock heavily to raise the price. Then dumps the stock at its peak causing the stock to plummet. The misconception is that many people think that P&D is only committed by scam companies. That is not true. I have personally seen very real companies pumped totally without their knowledge. Someone buys up a large chunk of stock. Pays someone to tout it — usually one of those sleazy small cap newsletter or “research company” — then dumps at the appropriate time. I don’t know how much Stellar knew, if anything, but this smacks of a classic P&D. What amazes me is the involvement of Money Map Press, which is a large and fairly well respected newsletter.
Cmon Jim. I’m not misguided. I’m a realist. SBOTF rose like a rocket as they promoted the heck out of it. And THE DAY THEY CLOSED THE PROMO –BAM — it drops like a stone. Pump and Dump. Somebody somewhere made a killing. Again I can’t point the finger at anyone. Heck I can’t complain. I made money. Seriously small caps are manipulated all the time: insiders, market makers, investment bankers et al. They manipulate the market all the time, But just when I thought the world of small caps couldn’t get any sleazier — it does.
Brad, I’m a bit confused by your reply. The first three and one half lines exactly define a true pump and dump scheme as I have defied it here. So far, so good. Then a couple sentences later, you state “Someone buys a large chunk of stock – pays someone to tout it – usually one of those sleazy small-cap newsletter or research company – then dumps at the appropriate time.”
That’s where the message I am trying to relay and your take on things diverge.
Who paid to have this promotion carried out? No one as far as we know. Certainly not Stellar, and that is a key characteristic of a P&D – the subject company is paying for the touts. What, if anything, did Stellar know of this happening? A news release today from them in response to an exchange inquiry on that exact topic said they had no idea why the increase in interest or drastic rise in volume occurred – but it wasn’t because of any new corporate event or development. What more can Stellars management say than that to disassociate themselves from these recent events? So Stellar had no part in it. In a real P&D, the company and its insiders are very much aware of it, know exactly what is happening and why. In those cases, they are the ones paying the other company to pump up the stock, and they are the ones who have amassed the huge amounts of stock that they then dump “at the appropriate time.”
Not a bit of that is true in this case. Stellar had no knowledge of the events, did not pay a cent to anyone to have it happen, had no have insiders sell into the recent declines, etc.
Those are the reasons I contend this is not a P&D but instead a Newsletter promotion. It does not rise to the level of proof by means of observable events to qualify as a bona fide P&D. Yes, the end result is much the same in terms of the stock price increases and now the sell off as the promotions fade away, but that is all. It is more properly defined as a newsletter promotion to achieve the ends the publishers wish to accomplish (sell subscriptions) rather than make insiders and themselves a quick fortune.
To paint Stellar with the wrong brush is not proper and could, in the minds of lesser well experienced investors, create a perception about Stellar that is untrue and unfair This is the only reason I keep harping at this – to prevent some potential investors from getting the wrong notion of what kind of company Stellar is and the ethics of its management team.
I don’t think there is any other way I can express this differential between a true Pump and Dump and a Newsletter promotion than I already have. They are vastly different critters, the former near criminal, the latter just a way to drive business for a publisher. That the stock price swirls and twirls around while either is occurring does not make them one and the same. If you wish to continue to think of it as a Pump and Dump, that’s your right. I just happen to believe you are wrong. In fact, I’m tired of trying to make a point – I suspect everyone here has already decided which camp they are in and that’s that. It’s perhaps a tempest in a teapot now.
So, I’ll conclude my commentary on this subject using the words of the great and wise Forrest Gump when he said “And that’s all I got to say about that.”
Best Regards – glad to have you here with us!
Jim Skelton
The Blind Squirrel
I get what you are saying Jim and notice I used only half the term…dump.
That was no simple sell-off from the charts I am looking at and have been studying all night.
I am not questioning the company’s intentions as a company but the mechanism used here creates just these sort of gut wrenching swings. All of the cloak and dagger and secret deals etc. negotiated behind closed doors…behind a paywall…
I get it and biz is biz but if anything SBOTF (if they did not benefit from the touting) should be pissed that they are painted with that brush.
Again, you have credibility with me already just from your content on here. The process and methods that were used by the newsletter and possibly by this company in this instance have zero credibility right now.
I continue to be interested as an investor and also hopeful as a human being.
With respect,
David
David, like you, I rather imagine that the management of Stellar is a bit more than put off with this happening. It does nothing to create credibility and in fact detracts from their day-to-day mission. Today they had to reply to an inquiry by one or another of the regulatory authorities about the price spikes and huge increase in volume. They issued a reply and press release essentially saying they know nothing about it and had no part in it. As one would expect them to say, and I believe it 100%. They are not out to destroy the company but to grow it!
The only beneficiaries here are (1) the newsletter publishers that will now use this chart to further proclaim their stock picking prowess and gain subscribers, and (2) we fortunate few who got in early, got out early, and put a few dollars in our accounts. The price closed today at exactly the amount I sold at on August 18th. I made some money. I hope most did.
I’m not going to be foolish enough to pretend I know something I don’t and make a prediction of what happens over the next few weeks. Look back at the charts of August through November 2013 as the first promotion wound down. There may be a clue there to work with.
I am out and will remain so for now. Someday I may well be long again – I believe in the company – but that decision will be determined by fundamental business events, not hype and hope as it is today.
Best,
Jim Skelton
The Blind Squirrel
Somebody made out big time on this PUMP AND DUMP!!!!!!!
For some reason it said I was logged in and yet acted like I was not so a comment is coming Jim…once the Moderator looks at it.
D
As I posted a week or so ago, SBOTF has broken my heart in the past, so I sold half my position that day at $1.61 and was fortunate enough to sell 25% more at $2.00. I was saddened that I was too slow to sell the last 25% at $2.35, but you never go broke taking a profit.
Now I plan to wait for the ‘hype to end’ to pull the stock back to $1.50 where I’ll happily repurchase some/most/all of it back at a nifty little profit. That’s why I’ve survived investing for 30+ years. Good luck to all of you.
PS: I just sold 25% of my position in LMRMF (look it up) at a dime. If it goes to 0.15 I’ll sell 25% more.
Fred Di Francesco
Jun 28 2016, 09:25:39 pm
I’ve cashed in on this baby a couple of times, in the past, and am holding another–smaller–position, now. Starting June 14, 2016, it has put up a nice string of ten consecutive candles, establishing a clear uptrend. I found it especially interesting that on Friday, June 24, the day after Great Britain’s ‘Brexit’ vote, we jumped $0.61, a 16% jump, while worldwide markets swooned…the DOW fell 611 points.
Although I was in favor of England leaving the European Union, and reclaiming its sovereignty from the over-reaching Eurocrats, I did read–and believed–that the move would involve some short term volatility. The ‘Remain’ side was painting a dire picture of the consequences of a ‘Leave’ vote, which I took to be ‘scare tactics’: I believe their ‘Leave’ vote will turn out to be a good decision, and the short term volatility will die down. How can reclaiming your country’s sovereignty NOT be a good idea? I think the ‘Trump Phenomenon’, in this country, is a similar move.
Yesterday, the 10th candle in the current uptrend, was black–the close was less than the open–but still $0.12 above Friday’s close. Today, we got another black candle and closed down $0.02, still up $0.13 from Friday’s close. This is not the first time I’ve seen a strong uptrend roll over and ‘take a breather’. We are trading on rising volume, in a Bear phase of a Secular Bull Market. Bottom line: I think the uptrend will continue, that Stellar remains a ‘Buy’, and will hold my shares, for now.
Thx for info been smelling a rat for a while
This is not “living metal;” it is the oxygen-carrying component from the Keyhole Limpet, a deep sea organism. It is no more metal than human hemoglobin, and no more living than maple syrup. While it is currently being investigated for drug delivery, no conclusive research has been shown for it successfully treating alzhiemers. It is simply refined blood from a deep sea creature.