The latest “ADC” pitch from Michael Robinson has generated a lot of questions from readers this week, and the ad itself seems to be pretty much a carbon copy of the one sent out back in December… so we’re just re-posting this teaser solution for you.
What follows is unchanged from when it first appeared here on December 12, though the new ads for Robinson’s Radical Technology Profits cite March 31st as the implementation deadline instead of December 18th (the ad letter is still signed December 2017, and seems otherwise completely unchanged from the version I used in writing this piece originally). The stock surged last time Robinson teased it, then came back down… and as of the past few days, it’s surging again, presumably thanks to the attention from this newsletter ad (there’s no other recent news of import, though the earnings release at the end of February did cheer investors). I have added one comment to the bottom.
–from 12/12/17–
Here’s the headline that sent dozens of Gumshoe readers to send me questions this morning:
“This Tiny Tech Firm’s ADC Device Could Make You a Millionaire This Month!
“But You Must Strike Before the December 18th Mandate Goes Live!”
Sheesh, that’s only six days! Did Congress just require that lots of companies have to buy something next week? What’s this mandate? For that matter, what the heck is a “ADC Device?”
Have no fear, Robinson will tell all and let you in on the secret… here’s further enticement from the order form:
“This virtually unknown company has sold less than $49 million of their ADC device since releasing it last April.
“But they could now control a legal monopoly of this $2 billion technology.”
Notice that word “could” in that last sentence. That’s the key. If you say “could” or “might,” then you’re not actually making a promise or a firm prediction… which, in this case, is good, because the chances of one company having a monopoly on this product are, well, let’s just say “very thin.”
The talk in the ad is about life-changing safety improvements for drivers… here’s a bit of the hinting from the “presentation” …
“At the stroke of midnight, on December 18th, a little-known Federal mandate will go into effect across the United States.
“It stipulates the immediate deployment of a cutting-edge technology…
“I refer to it as an Augmented Digital Co-Pilot – or ADC for short.
“This one measures just 2.2 inches long by 2.5 inches tall and wide….
“This ADC Device can create a virtual perimeter around you that extends out 20 miles in diameter.
“It’s accurate at predicting potentially dangerous threats in your path within one microsecond and two meters…
“And helps protect you from these very threats….
“It can stop some of the deadliest accidents on the road… from ever occurring….
“ADC Devices could help prevent up to 500,000 auto accidents a year and save 5,000 lives.”
And, apparently, everyone’s going to have to have one starting on December 18… more from Robinson…
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“The House of Representatives estimates the nationwide implementation of this technology will generate $2 billion.
“That’s $2 billion that’s up for grabs from this December 18th mandate.
“And it’s all thanks to this device.”
Robinson also notes that there’s going to be a rush to purchase these devices before that deadline, which would presumably bring buckets of money raining down on that monopoly owner, right?
“According to industry experts – the vast majority of people who must follow the mandate have yet to secure an ADC device.”
Robinson compares this safety technology to past mass adoption of safety features, like seatbelts and airbags and tire pressure monitors and anti-lock brakes, all of which generated billions of dollars in sales for manufacturers and patent holders as they became required technologies in all new vehicles.
So he lays it on pretty thick, as he is wont to do…
“A ground floor stake in any of these innovations could have made you a millionaire many, many times over…
“And you’d still be cashing those paychecks to this day!
“Well, I have some good news for you.
“This ADC device is the next life-saving breakthrough that is going to mint millionaires.”
And we know that’s got to be at least an “overpromise” situation, right? They’re doing their best to sell a newsletter, they’re spreading the hype on with a trowel to get you to sign up in these next few days, hopefully before you’ve had a chance to think very much. After all, you’re worried about missing that December 18 rollout, right?
Slow down, take a deep breath. We’ll look and see what the reality of the situation is, what this mandate really means, and then, in your own good time, you can decide whether or not to shell out $1,950 — especially because they’re effectively selling you this hyped-up idea with NO REFUNDS (their policy for this one is that if you don’t like the performance after one year, they’ll give you another year for free… but, of course, that costs them nothing and you’re still out $1,950).
So what’s this company?
A few more clues…
“This firm just released their ADC device last April.
“Since then, they have sold less than $49 million worth of their technology.
“That’s it. That’s amazing. That’s the very definition of a ground floor opportunity.
“And that $49 million figure could explode at any moment.
“Because their device is the most obvious choice for anyone who must quickly comply with the December 18th mandate.”
Wait a minute… I thought this was a monopoly. What’s this “most obvious choice” business? Are there other companies that sell these little ADC things?
More clues?
“It’s easy. You just plug it directly into a vehicle’s diagnostic system under the dash. You don’t need to go to a mechanic….
“This firm’s ADC device is the easiest to obtain.
“That’s because their executive brain trust includes both some of America’s smartest technological minds…
“And savviest business wizards as well…
“To give them a sizeable competitive advantage in the market, they’ve inked a series of strategic deals with Ford, GM, Volvo, PACCAR, Daimler and Caterpillar…
“This tech firm has also worked out a distribution deal with Love’s Travel Shops and Country Stores.”
OK… so their device is the “easiest to obtain,” they have some “strategic deals” with big truck manufacturers, and they are selling their ADC device in at least one of the big truck stop chains.
That’s enough for us to get you an answer, at least… this is, sez the Thinkolator, Stoneridge (SRI)
And, of course, when a newsletter promo gets all hot and heavy about a stock and starts to promise that it’s got a monopoly on a $2 billion business, the stock has a tendency to go a little nutty — so SRI is up 15% or so today already.
What is Stoneridge? Well, here’s how they describe themselves:
“Stoneridge, Inc., headquartered in Novi, Michigan, is an independent designer and manufacturer of highly engineered electrical and electronic components, modules and systems principally for the automotive, commercial vehicle, motorcycle, agricultural and off-highway vehicle markets. “
And what’s this “ADC” thing? They’re not actually called ADCs, the technical term is ELD… and Stoneridge’s is called the EZ-ELD.
What’s the story with this mandate? The Electronic Logging Device (ELD) is indeed mandated for all truckers starting on December 18, though it’s not really the incredible driver safety monitoring system that Robinson teases in the ad… it’s just an electronic driving log, effectively, that monitors basic driver compliance with their maximum drive-time limits.
Some drivers still use paper logs to record their driving hours (“Record of Duty”), and they have to comply immediately next week by installing some sort of ELD… others are using one of the previous version of electronic monitoring systems, and they’ll have another two years before they have to upgrade to an ELD. So there is some portion of drivers that need to buy these right away, and some portion that will need to buy them within two years.
It’s essentially an upgraded tracker that will ensure better compliance — it monitors the engine usage, whether the rig is in motion, and how many miles are covered. And yes, it taps into the OBD slot on the truck, so it’s all automatic.
Will Stoneridge have $2 billion in sales this month because of it’s EZ-ELD?
Well, no.
Analysts are presumably aware of this new requirement, and they have Stoneridge penciled in for $819 million in revenue for all of 2017 — that’s nice growth from 2016 (which was $696 million), and the forecast is for $851 million next year. So they are growing, but the analysts, at least, don’t think they’re in the middle of a life-changing avalanche of profits. They’ll earn 10 cents more per share then they did last year, sez the forecasters.
And, of course, there is nothing like a monopoly anywhere in this — even if you just skim around Amazon for a few minutes you’ll note dozens of different ELD’s available… it’s new to most of us, because we aren’t truckers, but it’s not a shocking new change for the people who actually have to buy them, there are lots of solutions that tap in to existing software or systems drivers might use (including lots of tablet/phone systems that are used for GPS and other software), and a quick count of the similar-sounding ELD devices available brings up products from Garmin, Linxup, On20, Rand McNally, JJ Keller, TrackEnsure, DashLink, ZED and lots of others.
Love’s did agree to sell their ELD product… but that doesn’t mean every trucker who goes to Love’s is going to buy one. Or even that they’re pushing this particular one — heck, Love’s own frequent buyer program is giving away an ELD from Transflo, including monthly service, right now.
It could indeed end up being a great product for Stoneridge, I have no idea, but it looks like the competition is fierce — partly because most of these products are being sold with a monitoring subscription, so companies are competing to bring on board new customers in hopes that they’ll stick around for a $15/month subscription that provides some services on top of the basic ELD tracking… though in just a little poking around it’s pretty clear that you can be “compliant” without paying a monthly fee.
I don’t know much about the trucking business, but I assume there probably will be a little spurt of sales for all suppliers this month as the few drivers who don’t know about this requirement plunk down $150 for their device… and presumably Stoneridge will get some portion of that business, but I don’t see a lot of competitive advantage for them off the top of my head. I would assume that the competitive advantage, if any, goes to those who provide a service that’s compatible with whatever software the driver and/or his fleet are already using for other things — the actual mechanics of the device, a connection to the truck’s data port and the tracking of engine hours and mileage, are probably pretty much identical for all of them, and they all meet the basic requirements of the law. Whether the monthly service or the software are more appealing for some of these products than others, I have no idea — but nothing like that appeared obvious from skimming around the web for a bit (and yes, there are dozens of ELD-sellers who are advertising aggressively on Google Search as we come close to that deadline).
And the EZ-ELD is a notable product introduction for the company this year, but it’s not likely to be a dominant part of Stoneridge’s business — they supply a variety of parts to car manufacturers (sensors, switches, valves and actuators, electronic instrument controls and clusters, driver information systems, security systems, tracking devices, etc.), and the division that includes the EZ-ELD is roughly 30% of sales last year. Their design wins in autos, and the volume of automobiles sold, will presumably be more important to the bottom line than this specific ELD product.
The company is not ridiculously overvalued — there’s no real reason for the stock to have jumped 15% today, other than Robinson’s attention, but even at $25 and a new all-time high the shares are priced at about 16X next year’s earnings. So that’s not wildly out of line with reality for a small-cap auto supplier that is expected to grow sales at 3-4% a year and earnings at something in the 4-7%/year range, on average. Not cheap, but probably not crazy, that puts them somewhat above the low-valuation auto suppliers like Magna International (MGA) or Tenneco (TEN) and closer to the PE valuations of Johnson Controls (JCI), Autoliv (ALV) or Aptiv (APTV).
And that’s par for the course for Robinson’s ads, in my experience — some of his growth ideas work out just fine, but that doesn’t mean the promise of his ads made any sense… he pitched NVDA a couple years ago and that was a great pick (obviously, in retrospect), but he pitched it because it would “end all pain” because of a connection to R&D on using virtual reality for pain relief… and before that, he had a big campaign running for a long time that teased STMicroelectronics (STM), which also could have worked out well for investors, but he pitched it as having a patent on the “device that would end all disease,” and that’s hooey. So look past the promise, think about the actual company rationally, and make your own call.
For my money, I don’t see wild potential in my quick glance at Stoneridge, and I have other stocks in my portfolio that give me enough exposure to the auto supplier space… but that doesn’t mean Stoneridge is junk, just that I think Robinson’s pitch about “a historic 3,982% sales surge” based on their EZ-ELD device is irresponsibly hype-y.
UPDATE 3/20 — In case you don’t want to scroll through all the past comments on this article, here’s the comment I added below when the attention from Robinson started to heat up again this week:
Another crazy run in the stock on Robinson’s rejuvenated “ADC” pitch this week — I don’t think there’s been any meaningful change with the company or its financials, though Robinson now pitches the April 1 deadline for all drivers to have an ELD on board.
In case you’re curious, here’s the DOT list of all of the approved ELD products out there: https://csa.fmcsa.dot.gov/ELD/List — I don’t know if Stoneridge’s product will be successful for them or not, they have a decent business otherwise and presumably they’ll make some sales, but this is not a particularly demanding piece of technology that’s being sold and there are at least hundreds of options for most users. My guess remains that it’s probably a net positive for Stoneridge, but forecasting any kind of huge boom for the company because of this relatively small part of their business is silly… and it would be quite easy for the market for this basic tracking/compliance technology to be pretty well dispersed across the dozens (or hundreds, even) of companies who can all provide the required software or hardware.
The stock is perhaps not ridiculously overvalued still, compared to other stocks, but is now trading at 14X forward earnings and 28X trailing earnings in a sector that doesn’t generally carry lofty valuations (particularly as investors remain worried about “peak auto”). It is trading at a new all-time high price/sales ratio of just over 1X, so that’s a possible warning indicator… my guess is that this Robinson-driven surge in the stock will reverse and the shares will see the high teens/low $20s again before too long, but that’s just a guess — I haven’t dug into the company enough to judge whether it’s worth betting against them just because they’re more richly valued than they usually have been.
Have a take to share? We’d love to hear it — tell your fellow investors what you think by submitting a comment below.
P.S. We’re collecting quick reader rankings about the newsletters they subscribe to — if you’ve ever been a Radical Technology Profits subscriber, please click here to share your experience with your fellow investors. Thanks!
P.S. I own shares of Aptiv (APTV) and Amazon (AMZN) among the companies mentioned above. I won’t trade in any stocks covered for at least three days per Stock Gumshoe’s rules.
As always , thanks Travis for the great heads up.
One year and five year charts show nice steady trend up but high volatility on a monthly range. These swings exceed the value of the up trend IMHO.
In the short term ( the last few months) a rise has already been baked into the price. I see weakness on the short term. Take a helicopter view and look at the stock behaviour using a 5 year chart. From this vantage point, the immediate future is downwards sloping.
The massive jump seen in the last day or so (12th Dec) looks to be media driven.
Given the spruiking that’s going on with this stock.
Do your self a favor, go and compare this stock to BA using a 5 year chart and tell me what you would rather be trading. For the record, I have exposure to BA.
Apologies for the jaded view. I’ve fallen down too many sink holes, chasing butterflies.
You’re right, these letters reco. usually push the price up if you get frantic and then you’re left holding the bag.
Thanks for the review, l tried to listen to that video, but it went on FOREVER!!! You guys/ladies, whoever you are, do great work!
you always can hit the exit button which asks you if you want to stay on that page. if you say yes ,you can scroll down through all the baloney quickly and see the bottom line cost of the “precious info”.
It looks like the teaser had some effect today.
17.5% gaped up! What is the reason
Buy the hype sell the news!
Same reason the entire flock of sheep moves when one of them bleats “wolf.”
I am wondering Travis what the heck Mr. Robinson was talking about when referring to a 20 mile perimeter this device sets up to warn of potential deadly situations? Is that his hooey or is it part of the gov. so-called mandate? It sounds like he just added in some stuff that would make his pitch sound better. I got his letter for a year,( not this one but a $49 version) and his pitch doesn’t sound different now even at this ridiculous price. I didn’t actually invest in any picks but I looked at their progress for a while, and they were no very good. I cancelled
I’m sure such safety devices are being developed, and some are available, maybe even Stoneridge makes something like that … but the ELD doesn’t do that (and isn’t required to). If it increases safety, it’s through accountability and better monitoring of driver hours to make it harder to break the rules, leading, one hopes, to fewer fatigued drivers.
It’s a feature of these devices called geofences. It hasn’t been exploited well yet, but will be. Cal Amp (CAMP) is another company doing similar stuff.
Truck Collision Avoidance A real popular device is made by Bendix. Its called the Bendix Wingman. Many of the new big rigs come equipped with it or a equal. Just google this supplier to find out more.
Watched Mr. Robinson’s pitch about the mandate for ELD tech in big rigs. From the Gumshoe link to manufacturers of said technology, I pulled up the Stoneridge ELD1.0 and downloaded the image, amazing that it looks exactly like the image of the device Mr. Robinson is pitching. Just an FYI. Thanks for your post, I like fact checking. Still though, I added SRI to my watch list based upon their stock info, though I will wait for a better pull back, entry point should I decide to buy.
I’m doing well with Mr. Robinson’s pot stocks.
I have a few can you share?
Well I have all of the main ones everyone is touting and I still am lucky to just about break even so far but I think by this summer when some of this goes into mass production in many states we will make money if we are patient. Michael Robinson is no slouch when it comes to research. He sent out a huge booklet and pamphlets on start ups, medical discoveries and company information. It was all quite thorough and the material alone was worth the purchase price of that one subscription for $49 to NovaX.
Thank you, Travis for jumping on this so quickly. I was getting “updates” today that things were moving faster than Robinson expected and was getting “alerts” to move fast. Now I shall sleep better knowing I didn’t miss the urgent opportunity.
Wonder who makes the sensor in the device? STM is a leader in sensor/ mems technology. Hope it’s them.
SRI
I just looked at there chart. It’s a coup in and handle. Today 12dec they went from 21 up to 25.
Volume was 800,000.
I can want this one. It will go to 28-30. Then bubble brakes
what was the stock? Thanks
Thanks so much Travis for being such a quick draw on getting your analysis out on these teaser pitches. Given that it popped 15% today, I’m kinda thinking maybe I’ll jump on the bandwagon in a wee way, just to join the pump & dump crowd. Much obliged once again.
heck I DO NOT EVEN KNOW THE NAME OR TICKER OF THE COMPANY THAT MAKES THEM,A LITTLE HELP?
thanks very much for the info. i’m so happy your available to all us gummies
keep up the good work
jim
litecoin were is it going.
I get these and don’t really follow through because a lot IS hype. But this one intrigued me enough and glad I found this page with the better explanation to “save” 1950 or whatever they’ll charge.
That being said, it may be something interesting to put on the casual watch list for a while. The new “all time high” it just made is a 20-year one; it nearly “triple topped” back in 1998 shortly after the company was on the exchange. After said high it trailed back about 7%. (Symbol: SRI)
Beyond that do tread a little lightly as mentioned above; many models are on the market now, and tons more will come as this mandate rolls out over time forcing more and more places to purchase these, whether as an individual operator or a company operating fleets. If a company like this and some others can be the front-runner models, it should at least make the stock attractable but not a screaming buy “right now” unless you feel strongly enough about it after your due diligence. It’s just marketed as an alleged “ground floor” type opportunity now where the stock could easily be a lot higher than it is now in 2-3 years.
what is the name of the small tech company making the ADC device?
I too would like the name of this small tech co. making the ADC device!
It’s Stoneridge… discussed in more detail in the article above.
hi folks don’t listen to Michael robinson. his is full of shit…I try some of his recommendation in the past 90% of them is a flat lies. he call Sanofi a tiny small company in one of his presentation…….????????????????? Sanofi is a huge drug company….I call money map press and I ask them to cancel my subscribtion and return my money……he will call an ant an elephant just to sell you his garbage and take your money
i’ve had better success with Michael Robinson and a number of his stocks do appear to do well. I’ve subscribed, alas, to two other Money Map Press subscriptions before I knew about Travis. Gentile and Gilani. I feel I’m living in an alternate universe. Gentile touts all his incredible weekly gains, yet when I follow him I get losses. I called to bail out but was persuaded with the carrot of an extension hey why not. Then when I went back to bail as I kept losing, they didn’t have a record of that promise. Again the lesson is always take down the name of the person you spoke with.
Speaking of bitcoin, which we weren’t, I’ve been in SBTC which no one of the gurus in the bitcoin field seem to mention, but I’m up 800% though I sold half and went directly into cryptos where there is a pretty steep learning curve. At the moment it’s hard to lose on BTC. Day of reckoning? It’s hard to be in the counting house counting your gold and silver coins as a money changer these days, it’s all out there in cyberspace or in some building in Tibet.
I agree.
Robinson is blessed with great optimism and imagination . I too have done ok on some of his recommendations . The static you get from all the affiliated subscriptions almost makes it not worthwhile to have the Novax report.
Hey, Hamid. I think you told us about Michael Robinson .. he is full of shit… I agree with you. He is a lier. I called Money Map Press and I asked them to cancel my subscription and return my money, but they told me my subscription fee for $1950 is non-refundable. Don’t know how did you get the money back. I’ll do anything I can to get my money back. Any suggestion?
I’ve been a fan of Michael Robinson for 3 yrs now. NVDA was my first and with great success. I’ve been investing with his pot stocks for 9 months with a return of 200% plus. Supscription is $280.00 for lifetime
I have also fell victim to a 2000. dollar letter from someone else.Lost my
hinny.
My experience in my short career as an investor is. Research Research,Reserch
Thanks for the info
Keep pressing to speak to the supervisors and if still denied ask to speak to manager and even to mr Robinson. One person wrote a letter with legal letterhead and was immediately reimbursed because he stated his hardship situation it had caused his family.
Over last few years I have subscribed to several of their 1k – 2k services.. but only when clearly stated 100% money-back guarantee. I requested a refund on most of those subscriptions and each time received the refund no problems.
I’ll give you $50 for your subscription to rid you of it!
What is the stock name .? for ADC >>>>
Great job letting us all know about this. You’re awesome!
Thanks a lot for being honest about the so called adc by Mr Robinson,I was wrecking my brains out all week trying to find a way to buy this stock. You sure took a ton of weight off me,thank you again
I got Burned Real BAD by a Hyped Up Radical Technology Profits stock recommendation two years ago on TransEnterix (TRXC). Per their “in-depth investigative report” on TransEnterix and their way over-hyped surgical robotic system: The SurtiBot – it was supposed to present a major challenge to the DaVinci Surgical Robot – by being a far less costly alternative. But when the SurgiBot failed to gain an FDA Approval (contrary to the report that saw an FDA Approval a Shoe-In) the TRXC Stock (of which I had purchased 9,000 shares of – based on their very strong recommendation) TANKED and has never since recovered. The second “surgical robot” product from TransEnterix – the Senhance System – turned out to be A ‘Commercial Flop’. I made another big mistake by going along with another recommendation from these clowns by investing $5,000 in SharesPost – which didn’t ear a penny in 2 years before I pulled my money back out. I could have made more money in a Savings Account! But I also lost out on the opportunity to invest that $5,000 in so many other far better investments. These people are IDIOTS – and I’ll never seek any more of their investment advice as they are nothing more than pumper and dumpers – where they get pumped and we get dumped!
How do you get your money back from that stupid SharesPost. I invested a lot of money on their stupid recommendation. I am disabled and I need the money. They only offer 5% back every 3 months. It would take years to get my money back. Is that how you did it?
The SharesPost 100 Fund offers to buy back shares at NAV quarterly — the 5% limit is for the total outstanding shares that exist, NOT for 5% of your shares, so unless there’s a big rush of net redemptions in any given quarter I would assume that much of the time unitholders would be able to redeem their full position using the quarterly forms that they mail out to register those requests.
FWIW, I have a very small PRIVX position and spoke to the managers of the fund a few years ago when I was researching it, I like the idea of it but there’s always been a concern that a tiny player like this cannot get the best access to investments in favored private firms. It has not done particularly well, but I find it interesting to follow their progress and I have not tried to do any redemptions.
The fund more or less tracked the S&P for the first year after Michael Robinson pitched it, but their private investments completely failed to participate in the broader market rally of 2017 so there was definitely a big opportunity cost — since the original ad, PRIVX is up about 4% while the S&P 500 has a total return of 35%.
Thank you Travis for the info. You have saved me many times with your articles. Keep up the good work.
Should have held that stock bruh
No report to buy. OTC “BLOZF” $1.59 (Cannabix Tech’s. Inc) Perfecting roadside monitor for drug-testing.
Also OTC “ACRL” $0.0007 (Atacama Res’s. Int’l. Inc.) Their most recent computerized test: “FIT 4 DUTY” –employees (reporting for duty) in construction jobs, hospital workers, police, stores, offices, mines, etc. This has been added to their “GOOD 2 DRIVE” test: before starting out AND while en route–truck drivers, pilots, public transportation (bus, trains, subways, etc.).
Just FYI Good Luck.
Mike Robinson says this stock is already moving up, but it remains to be seen if it’s going to explode like he predicted.
Anyone still out here?