Pretty much every publisher has jumped on the cryptocurrency bandwagon, and this latest one shouldn’t come as much of a surprise… Jim Rickards has styled himself as a currency guru, with his “Currency Wars Alert” and plenty of pitches about the impending demise of the dollar or other major currency moves in recent years, and now he has launched a new service about cryptocurrencies with Agora.
That service is called Rickards’ Crypto Profits ($2,000/yr), and he says he’ll be providing one recommendation per month… but that it’s just now that he has decided to recommend his first cryptocurrency.
So what is it? That’s the deep, dark secret that we’re teased with in the ads. Here are the clues he drops:
“A few days ago Jim Rickards told me he’s ready to make his first ever cryptocurrency recommendation…
“It’s a tiny crypto that’s trading for just around $0.70… [N.B. let’s check the price again before we record. Even if it’s higher, we still expect it to go much higher. It’s actually $0.53 as of Wednesday morning; a better entry point]….
“Jim says this window of opportunity to cash in BIG could close as soon as next Monday.”
OK, so there’s the urgency that every good teaser pitch requires — they know damn well that if you say, “this might rise 1,000% in a year” that you will probably take your time to think about it before giving them your credit card number… maybe even talk it over with your spouse, do some research, you know — be thoughtful.
But if they say “you’ve only got a few minutes to decide, this will be old news by Monday!” — well, then they’ll be able to convince quite a few folks to jump over the fence and come join their party right away, without looking around to see if maybe there’s an angry bull on that side of the fence… or even just a lot of cow manure to slip on.
That’s made even worse by the wild and crazy cryptocurrency markets, of course, since everyone has heard stories of the neighbors or in-laws or whoever else that got 10,000% returns on some cryptocurrency or another and is living on easy street… the “FOMO” trade (fear of missing out) is helping to drive even the stock market to wild new highs, but in the cryptocurrency world it sometimes seems like FOMO is the only thing driving prices. That discourages research, thinking, and caution, and encourages fast decisions and rash choices… like, for some people, plunking down $2,000 for a completely nonrefundable subscription like this new one from Rickards.
So at least slow down for a moment and think about that: How many things would you buy, sight unseen, for $2,000, with no recourse if it turns out that it’s junk? (or is even just completely different than you expected?) Some of you can afford that and would write it off with a laugh, I’m sure, but that’s a lot of money for most of the folks who see these investment newsletter ads — for the average person in the US, that’s about three weeks of take-home pay (or, worse, most of the money they had set aside for retirement savings for the year).
But enough preaching from me… what is this cryptocurrency that Rickards is pitching? Here are the hints I gleaned from the pitch:
“In the last few months of 2017, this coin already grew from around a penny to approximately 70 cents per coin….
“This $0.70 cent coin is better than bitcoin.
“Bitcoin doesn’t hold a candle to this coin….
“Some publications are already calling this crypto “the biggest winner” of 2018.
“CNBC calls it the “new hottest cryptocurrency of 2018.”
“And Fortune says we could see $87 billion flowing into this tiny crypto by next year.”
But the big urgency here, we’re told, is that IBM is “backing this currency” … and that there’s some kind of news expected:
“Soon, IBM is going to make a massive announcement regarding its plans with this coin…
“It could happen as soon as next Monday.”
And there is apparently other adoption happening, too:
“Deloitte has started implementing this coin for internal transactions and witnessed a 40% reduction in their costs….
Are you getting our free Daily Update
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just click here...“This is not just some random no-name company.
“It’s Deloitte, one of the largest accounting and consulting companies in the world.
“If you’re running a bank, wouldn’t you like to cut your costs by 40%?
“Of course you would.
“That’s why a dozen banks have already lined up to adopt this coin…
“With more on the way.”
So what little cryptocurrency are we being teased with here? This is almost certainly the Lumens token, from Stellar (often the cryptocurrency itself is called Stellar), usually abbreviated XLM. This one has grown quickly, now it’s a top-ten coin when measured by the size and dollar value of the circulating supply (the “market cap”, per coinmarketcap.com, is about $8.5 billion now — still tiny compared to bitcoin or ethereum, which together account for more than half of the dollar value of all cryptocurrencies put together, but much larger than most of the thousands of “tokens” that are vying for cash and attention).
And yes, Stellar has partnered with IBM and Deloitte — the goal is to build a network for fast transactions across currencies, with Lumens being the interim currency that is used to make everything work quickly. It is a cryptocurrency, but it’s not one that’s built on mining or on work — the participants in the system don’t earn tokens, but everyone who wants to use Lumens to facilitate transactions will need to have some inventory of the tokens in the future. The security of the system seems to be built on their own “consensus protocol,” whereby different participants in the network and choose who to trust to verify transactions. So it’s a blockchain, a public and distributed ledger still, it’s not a private or proprietary network (like Ripple is, apparently), but it’s one that is supported by partners and participants, not by miners who compete to participate.
Sounds kind of interesting as a concept, though I have no idea what kind of math you have to do to try to determine what a “lumen” should be worth. The transaction fee is set at .00001 XLM for each operation, and I guess the assignment of “trust” and the actual sending of a payment would be two operations, so that’s .00002 XLM for a basic transaction, or at the current price of something close to 50 cents per XLM “token”, that would be a fee of one thousandth of a cent. Each account is required to hold a reserve of XLM as well, at least 0.5 XLM (about 25 cents), so in order to participate in this network as a sender or recipient you’ll have to have at least a quarter “invested” in Lumens. Both of those requirements seem to be set solely to discourage bad actors and hacking, the actual fees go back into the pot and, essentially, help to fund stellar’s R&D and create the 1% annual inflation that is written into the network, from what I can tell.
So yes, it is a real cryptocurrency that is being tested by some real technology and financial services companies — though those relationships are almost certainly not exclusive in any way (IBM is doing a lot of blockchain work, presumably with many of the existing networks as well as in building their own proprietary software). I have no idea whether that means XLM has any kind of edge on becoming the foundation of the global money-transfer system in the future, every large bank and financial institution is researching blockchain integration or implementation or creating their own blockchain-inspired protocols and it’s probably going to be a while before any consensus emerges about what blockchain or cryptocurrency protocols become valuable business tools or get effectively “built in” to the next generation of internet protocols.
Here’s how Stellar describes itself, in bitcoin terms:
“The main differences between the Stellar network and Bitcoin are the following:
- Stellar is based on a consensus algorithm rather than mining. This means transactions confirm in a few seconds.
- The supply of lumen increases at a fixed rate of 1% a year.
- Stellar aims to let you transact in your currency of choice (fiat or digital).
“The hope is that the currency itself will be mostly a behind-the-scenes currency, and that the Stellar network will help provide more liquidity between currencies.”
They even have the beginnings of a graphic novel that illustrates their notion of “consensus,” which even a dummy like me can appreciate.
I can’t tell you which cryptocurrencies will go up or down, of course, because there’s almost no economic rationality tied to any of the cryptocurrencies. I can’t tell you with any certainty why bitcoin should be at $100 or $1,000 or $100,000 per token, which means that, as far as I’m concerned (and yes, my brain is limited in its ability to process these ideas), these are simply speculative barometers of sentiment.
Which isn’t to say that blockchain or distributed ledgers are a passing fancy or a fad — I do think there’s a chance that they could form the foundation of the next internet, and that we’d all probably be better off if that’s what happens… but drawing any kind of line between that sentiment and a price, in US$, for any particular cryptocurrency is nonsensical to me. And any guesses about “valuation” are, frankly, even tougher for a token like Stellar Lumens, where there is not even a reward to be earned for building and maintaining the network.
What does that mean? Most cryptocurrencies are, to my way of thinking, really a distributed reward system, with the benefits of creating a new web protocol “token” being shared among those who invented it, those who work to support it (the miners who verify transactions), and those who fund the company that’s developing it (the ICO “investors”), and the “real” part of that work, (the micropayments that miners receive for verifying transactions, for example), has been completely overshadowed by the speculative folly of bidding up the future value of those tokens.
So I get the idea, and it makes sense and we could see some really powerful technological changes in the next decade if and when blockchain technology is used to dramatically improve and democratize the internet (and make transactions far faster and safer, obviating the need for all those “trusted” counterparties like banks), but I still can’t tell you whether ethereum should be worth $5 a token or $50,000, or whether Stellar Lumens and its consensus-based verification model will be in huge demand. To me, that’s all fuzzy guesswork (I do own small chunks of a few of the big cryptocurrencies, ethereum and bitcoin and bitcoin cash, but I’m fully accepting of the fact that those positions could go to zero overnight).
And with that, dear friends, I’ll pass it back to you to discuss — I can tell you that Rickards is almost certainly touting Stellar Lumens, and he thinks IBM might make some big, loud announcement about it sometime, and IBM is already a big participant in the nascent Stellar network of “validators’… but I suspect that “announcement” talk from Rickards is as much about inspiring your quick action in pulling out your credit card as it is about any fundamental reason why the Stellar Lumens story will change overnight.
So… whaddya think? Excited about Stellar Lumens or any of the other blockchain or cryptocurrency tokens out there? Have a valuation argument you want to make? Think I’m a knucklehead? (You’re not the only one who has that sentiment, don’t worry.) Our ears are open, please fill ’em up with a comment below.
P.S. The most rational explanation I’ve read for bitcoin and blockchain and the potential value that many of us see in these ideas (if not necessarily in any specific token) was in the New York Times Magazine last week — definitely worth checking out if you’re just trying to get your head around the whole crypto topic in general.
A very good summary and I agree. I have lost all or any faith I had in reading Rickards. He is the only one making money out of overpriced advice, most of which is unreliable, to say the least.
Can you cite some examples of unreliable advice? His recommendations in his newsletter seem to be doing well and his commentaries are in my opinion very informative. He explicitly predicted the Trump win and Brexit, placing him in a tiny minority of pundits. He was, however, wrong about the last Fed rate rise. I cannot stand his crass advertising with Agora, but he has a serious side and his arguments seem plausible to me.
Oh yes, Williams, I can provide some examples. His newsletter recommended the UK stock Carillion when it was over 200 pence. And after numerous profit warnings, continued to rate it a HOLD at around 20. It has since gone into liquidation, delivering an unbeatable 100% loss to his subscribers. Fortunately, contrary to the exceptionally incompetent trading advice given, I had stopped out long before. On the currency side when GBP was around 122USD at the start of 2017, he said it was going to 100 and lower, and I duly went short. It is now at 141 (of course one day in the years ahead, it will most likely go to parity, at which point he’ll boast of his brilliant foresight). I have more examples, but want to avoid the pain of reliving my gullibility, so please excuse me if I don’t enumerate them further. These recommendations cost me even more than the subscriptions to his newsletters and other private content. As you suggest, he talks a great game, is extremely persuasive and excellent at self promotion. The latest, and for me, the final straw was, after having rabidly hammered Bitcoin as a ‘fraud and Ponzi scheme’ for the last year, he’s all of a sudden come out saying he’s actually always been a believer in the underlying blockchain technology all along. Yeah, right. I followed him for at least 5 years, paying for newsletters, books, private blogs, and had never seen or heard even a hint about this before this month. Now he’s a self-proclaimed expert in all things blockchain and distributed ledgers, with actionable, inside knowledge. In fact, as a matter of urgency, you really need to just pay him another four-figure annual subscription, so you too can have access to his crypto currency trading wisdom. The same wisdom that, in the strongest terms, suggested people stay far, far away from Bitcoin when it was $1k, and then said ‘told you so’ when it ‘crashed’ from $20k to $10k, having helped ensure that they missed out on one of the best trading opportunities of the modern age. The same wisdom and foresight that missed the rise of Ethereum from 25c to $1000 in a little over 3 years. Sorry, but compared to real experts in this field (both from a trading and a technical perspective), Jim knows next to nothing about this subject. He’s just opportunistically jumping on the bandwagon to pull some more suckers into his reality distortion field, or some might even say, his very own, self-styled Ponzi scheme.
I have tried to formulate educated opinions about some of the cryptos but it just seems impossible. It truly feels like betting on a 1000 horse horserace. So many interesting, similar, but nuanced ideas and nothing that seems to make decisively more sense than anything else.
I’ve read James Altucher; he discounts 95% of crypto-currencies with good reasoning – his scale of value includes the crypto meeting a real need, having experienced management, being established and a few more common-sense guidances – the more interesting part of the digital craze is the blockchain technology, being adapted to many bricks and mortar sectors. I think that they are not going away – there is potential in amongst all the hype.
I agree with this assessment . The question then becomes as an investor how do we take advantage of the Block Chain tech.
How does one purchase Stellar
Its available for trading on several of the big cryptocurrency exchanges. CoinGecko lists the exchanges that offer XLM trading here. I haven’t ever used any of those or traded any of these “smaller” coins, personally.
Would like to hear about it if u do Travis. Also how easy or hard it is to jump thru the hoops of purchasing some.
Binance is one of the best to trade XLM, XRP, Verge (XRG), TRON (TRX etc.).
I am not recommending any single exchange etc. but the large ones like CoinBase are good to take fiat to the big four and then I have had good luck with Binance and a couple of small exchanges for the tiny tiny coins.
My referral IDs (which I think gets you either a one time tiny amount of money or some discount to trade) are as follows;
Binance
http://www.binance.com/?ref=13631569
Coinbase
http://goo.gl/cb5NZe
Feel free to use them or not. I have never posted them anywhere and I do make some kind of commission or something for people who trade but I am posting it more as a shortcut to get to the right place instead of people having to go find the right places themselves.
Alternatively the web IDs are;
http://www.coinbase.com
http://www.binance.com
Both also have apps but lately I have bought within the Coinbase app but only xferred coin from their web interface because the app seems to take so long.
Anyway, rock and roll. Glad to answer any questions and also glad to learn together as we go along.
D
I think I want to try to invest a few hundred dollars into lumens. Is that possible. Reading the discussion it sounds like I need to use bitcoin as a medium to get there, but if bitcoins are in the thousands how can I get by with investing a few hundred dollars?
All cryptos trade in increments — most exchanges will let you buy any amount you wish, many trades are far smaller in value than a single bitcoin.
Thank you!
To purchase stellar, you first need to buy some Litecoin on Coinbase. then you need to get an account on Bittrex or Binance. Binance is easier and Bittrex is currently not accepting new customers. Once you have some Litecoin on Coinbase , you can send it to your Litecoin wallet on Binance. Once your Binance account is funded with Litecoin, go to the exchange on Binance to buy Bitcoin then exchange it for XLM. The only reason that I use Litecoin is the transaction fees are cheaper. Don’t send Bitcoin because they currently are experiencing scaling issues of high trans. fees.
Wow, what?! A purchase takes that many transactions can’t be good. I’ll pass!
mrmicrobrew — that extra bit of complexity has caused many people to miss the boat. Its a different paradigm for sure, but once you get the hang of it its not that difficult to make these kind of purchases. And I agree about litecoin being the transaction coin of choice over bitcoin right now
I mentally committed to buying bitcoin at $8 but never figured it out and forgot it
Kickin’ yer butt around the block a few times, eh mate?
Ah, well schlechter…. that is the uncouth Am. way of saying it. I hope you come back soon!
Same thing with me, I even opened Coinbase account a few years ago, never founded it, then forgot. about it all… Kicking miself…
Oh mein Gott Schlechter. Mag nicht aber. Vergiss
es! Passiert mit uns alle. Um $8 Dollar BC zu kaufen ist ein Traum – aber bringt viele schlaflos nachts ausserdem. Just forget and relax mein Herrn. Etwas neues kommt wieder gleich.
I suppose I am a sad case too! Registered with Mount Gox in the early days, couldn’t for the life of me see it as more than Monopoly money or even a scam. Was glad I didn’t buy as Gox went spectacularly out of business a year or two ago!
Will the crypto maniacs on here tell us if they have made silly money or not. I fail to see how you can recommend it if not!
And why… Please explain for us common folks.Oh and please explain why every of you uses the word PARADIGM… it is SO not very ENGLISH !
Well said
There’s just not enough LTC crosses. I think cryptopia has a bunch, but I would never send a noob there.
I agree…what a long way away from buying a hell of a lot of Dollars with a couple of Pounds or Euros at the Airport ! Wouldn’t it have been nice if Santoshi had linked BC with Fiat Currency at the onset…and we all then could have treated BC as a commodity instead of having to have a Degree in Computing to execute .
It’s not as ridiculous as it may seem but it’s certainly not e-Trade…and the sheer amount of research on the newer ICOs can be daunting but at the same time for accredited investors…that is one of the more amazing ways to get residual income etc.
In many ways, imagine if you had to wait for a DTC of stock to make it from one exchange to the other to then trade or change brokers etc…and you could even keep the stock certificates in your house…
How long would that take to trade?
You can pretty much do the same thing in minutes and in the worst case a half hour to hour.
The mentality is definitely paradigm shifting.
D
I disagree. Most of the investing money I’ve made has been in crypto. Because of the difficulties, it means many people won’t bother… until it’s easier. Which it will be – that’s almost inevitable. When that happens, there will be far more money available (crypto etf that invests in alt-coins, for example).
It also makes it more difficult to trade, meaning buyers are usually hodlers – this puts in a price floor.
Thirdly, there is no pin to pop the bubble – in other words, these exchanges have no shorting mechanism for most coins. Modern bubbles pop based on panic + shorting – not on panic alone. Pullbacks can be panic driven, but true ends to bubbles come from shorts piling in. And these markets have no way to do that.
I agree, relenting control of your $ is usually the step in turning it over to a conman.
IT IS BECAUSE IT SHOWS YOU THAT THERE’S VALUE IN WHAT YOU ARE INVESTING IN. THE POTENTIAL THAT IN THE FUTURE THESE COINS WILL INDEED BE USED FOR PURCHASES.
lol…Completely get it. It can be a bit confusing. In the area of crypto or digital assets, I think it best to approach a coin as you would a company, as a long term investor. Look for the company and the team behind the coin. I will share a recommendation but of course you must do your own research and decide for your self how much you willing to invest and how much you can lose, given that the digital asset market is very very new and quite volatile ( this is changing due to the SEC and regulations that are being implemented). Of all the companies behind digital assets and there are hundreds that do not have a company behind them, Ripple and the XRP digital asset is one of the only ones that have the team, board of directors, experience and financial backing to carry out their intended goal. They are a privately held company and truly have a use case and solve a real problem in the area of cross-boarder transactions. If this sounds a bit like Stellar, it’s because Jed McCaleb, creator of Stellar, was in the past part of and co-founder of Ripple. He left for various reasons, see article in Observer from 2015 for total story, but the two, in my opinion are not even in the same league. Really look into Ripple and I think you will find a stable professionally run company that has made some fantastic strides and partnerships with the like of American Express, Moneygram, SBI Japan and about another 100 banks around the world. I invested 5K in Oct of ’17 when at .16 per unit of XRP and now at .80 I am sitting on 21,320. When it was at $3 per unit at the beginning of 2018, I had 78,000. You can see the volatility of it but what do expect from a very early unregulated market. That is changing quickly in 2018. If you apply the steadiness of a value investor and hold it, you may very well see a life changing return from a company that is established, healthy and strong.
mrmicrobrew,
One other thing, you can eaily go to Bitstamp which is an exchange in digital assests just like the traditional exchanges. you will have to get verified of course, as should be the case, but once you are, you can simply purchase XRP directly with your own US dollars. Simple that’s it. no converting from ether to lite coin back to Bitcoin etc…
You will have to get a secure wallet, which is where you store your purchased digital assets. If you have any questions, feel free to shoot me an email.
Good post Mike. Thanks.
How do you buy Ripple?
you can buy Ripple the same way, but I wouldn’t recommend it. Check out EOS, NEO, and Cardano(ADA) for 3rd generation platforms with great potential for growth..
Never Invest money in Crypto that you are not willing to lose. It’s highly volatile and risky. Long term outlook is amazing. Short term gains and losses are unpredictable.
Lot’s of ‘pumpers and dumpers’ for sure!
AJ,
Simply go to Bitstamp which is an exchange for digital assests, set up an account, get verified and once you have been verified you can purchase RIpple (XRP) directly with USD. I would highly recommened buying a hardware Wallet, which is where you store your coins off of the exchanges. Exchanges can be hacked and your investment stolen. example of a hardware wallet is Ledger Blue or Nano S. These are two of the best around.
It sounds so simple…:-))
sound like a PITA buying and selling!
Truly. EG- localbitcoin.com linked banks only recognize IOS!.
there is an old expression regarding having to be “a Philadelphia Lawyer to figure that out” that applies here.
hi mike so i tried coinbase and theyre so over loaded theyre system is failing to allow you to add credit or debit cards. the verification process is flawed in one way and then on another way it just basically shut down.
i wasted hours trying to make it work.
who else can i use to purchase XLM?
thanks
I signed up with Gemini some time ago but haven’t traded yet. I believe they are SEC regulated.
I had been using Coinbase and buying with a Capitol 1 Visa until a few weeks ago when they froze all crypto transactions. Very annoying to say the least. I found out about the denied purchase from Coinbase, not Capitol. Which is odd because when I made my 1st transaction, Capitol e-mailed me an alert asking if I had attempted the transaction. For the next 4-5 weeks I had no issues whatsoever. Not sure if it’s fraud protection or they’re feeling threatened.
FWIW, I’m in Cardano
Cheers – Todd
Hi, buying the bitcoin sounds like as show stopper for me – doesn’t it take a few thousands to buy one bitcoin? I only wanted to invest a few hundred dollars.
Travis answered this above – can buy in increments
XLM is also available on Kraken.
I bought XLM thru Bittrex as I believe in the company & its potential growth
Great analysis. I haven’t had much luck with my two Agora
$2,000 services. Not going for another. I do agree with him on gold and am investing more for insurance than profit.
I hope you asked for your money back. If not do so. If they refuse file a claim with federal trade commission and attorney generals office. These have to stop.
I agree guys ! I just read the lot from all of them – then await my Mentor Travis to sort out the “Chaff from the Grain” and ‘listen’ to his mind…he is a ‘Monument’ and a saviour in a corrupt world of Teaser Companies who Cannibilise each others thoughts and findings and fleece our hard owned pennies/cents for their Copycat teasers. Let us all continue to donate $ 39 to Travis to become an Irregular and just sit and wait for the Exposition of all these useless TEASERS, What do you say Travis?
I ask for a refund and was told they do not have a refund policy. I feel that I saw one on their presentation, but it has been deleted.
My wife got had with Jimmy but got a refund. I never sign up for a letter when the guy brags about his government contacts or army experience. I just pay my taxes that makes me whiner winner every time.
What Date is his next Monday? These non mineable alt coins are dime a dozen and have fickle base too volatile for me On Thursday the 4th January it hit a high of $0.91 then settled to $0.70 and in my opinion its been falling back towards $0.20 and you will never see it in the top 10 again. EthereumDashBitcoin Cash is what I’m into
Today, presumably — the ad was running late last week.
Of interest, the Stellar website itself proclaims there cannot be a surge in value of Lumens, like the one that happened in Bitcoin, because Lumens are too liquid for that to happen. So Rickards appears to have it wrong. Also a factor: The US Federal Reserve does not recognize the Lumen. So the only practical way for a US Citizen to buy Lumens, right now, is to trade for them with something. The coin exchanges that trade in Lumens, accept Bitcoins and Ethereum for that purpose.
That liquidity is why I was skeptical years ago about why bitcoin could ever rise because of its use as a currency — if the only functional use is to serve as the medium of exchange in a transaction, and there’s no reason to hold (or hoard) the cryptocurrency before or after the transaction, then any user only needs to “own” the currency for a moment or two in order to facilitate the transaction, then it goes back in the kitty and someone else can use it and the demand is fairly limited. That wasn’t what happened with bitcoin, of course, it is almost never used for actual transactions and it has become more of an artificial “hard asset” that’s traded like gold (or tulip bulbs), but that gets into arguments about whether cryptos will actually become currencies and be spent themselves, or whether they’re more of a transactional lubricant and aren’t needed other than for transactions.
The idea of a new currency and a new technological backbone for currency transactions is compelling… the idea of a “hard asset” that’s based on code and security and otherwise has no function is much less interesting to me, that’s just the “it’s valuable because it’s rare” argument and on that front, I expect gold will be more durable than bitcoin once this fascination crests. That could just be old-fashioned thinking, we’ll see, but I think blockchain is more compelling as a foundational technology evolution outside of this “hard asset speculation” realm than bitcoin (or whatever) is as a speculative asset in its own right.
Great analysis Travis. I tend along the same thinking. However, I do note that eBay is now allowing sellers to post a crypto option and it is rumored that Amazon may begin to accept them in a month or two. Clif High and Lynette Zang are both quite knowledgeable.
Lots of companies accept bitcoin, but almost no one actually uses it for transactions. It’s too exciting to trade, actually buying something with it seems so boring 🙂
I saw on TV where a guy bought a pizza with bitcoins. He had to go in to buy it, pay for it, then wait over 1/2 hours for the transaction to be approved. Then the $10 pizza cost $78 with fees. I don’t think these coins will be used in purchasing transactions.
No, they definitely fail on that front. A currency bitcoin won’t be, but apparently there’s still enough “belief” for folks to buy it as some kind of “speculative store of value”… and trading creates trading.
So, you admit you were wrong about Bitcoin and you’re still holding that position?
Just teasing – thanks for the great work here. I’m a regular reader.
Join the discussion
Agree with you Travis. Warren Buffett a non crypto currency believer compares the invention of the check (which was huge in transaction changes) with Bitcoin. As he says ” the person who invented the check and the current suppliers never made a fortune off of that invention.
I think you may have the wrong “Rickards.” In his Intelligence Report, he laughs off bitcoin as a bubble–a false investment–hype and will crash. That’s been his theme for the past 4 months that I’ve been a subscriber.
That is indeed what he has been saying for much of the past year or two, in public comments that I’ve seen… apparently that has changed, perhaps because he realized so many pundits were making money off the cryptocurrency mania (there goes my cynicism again!)
Much of the ad is about how this is the first crypto recommendation Rickards has ever made, and he still says most of them (including bitcoin itself) will end badly.
Having bought and read all of Rickard’s books and listening to his interviews and reading his posts regularly I find this move very disappointing. I say that because I initially thought Rickard’s was a very knowledgable and reliable source of information on economic and monetary matters, but it seems that GREED eventually gets the best of any successful internet promoter;
I don’t think Travis is being at all cynical, he is just being realistic, Jim simply can’t resist jumping on any bandwagon where money is being made, hence my faith in his integrity is now greatly diminished in spite of the fact I have made considerable money in precious metals stocks he has touted with Byron King, but then I was already invested in most of them based on my own research, well BEFORE he began touting them..
Smokescreen!!
Nope it’s the same Rickards…He’s just like the typical politician who sees a big parade forming and figures to take advantage and move to the front so he won’t be left behind. I’m now waiting for ‘Broken Clock Harry’ Dent to change his stripes: The guy is dumber than a turd of hurdles….Hasn’t been right about anything in 7 yrs.
Can’t disagree with your assessment of Harry DENT, he is totally clueless about gold, his manta never changes, Gold is going to $700. (or less) no matter how much gold keeps rising. At least a BROKEN (stopped) clock is right twice a day.
How come there was no abbreviated summary of this for us paying members today?
Time maybe? With all the annual review that Travis is currently covering, you can accept that the summary is not there here.
Because I forgot to add it — sorry! Will go back and do that.
you’re too good to us!! Thanks for another great report.
Blockchain is here to stay, and probably will increase in usage over time. Applications for speed and immediate ledgering of business transactions has merit (why IBM likes it). The financial institutions are bringing it in (Goldman Sachs, Bank of Japan, etc.). As a hedge against undisciplined government spending, it is attractive. But to invest in any one of these crypto-currencies at this point is a bit like playing Russian roulette. Too risky for my tastes…
It might be risky, but not a roulette. among those coins there will be the next Google, Amazon or whatever. blockchains and decentraliced solution are at least as big as a Revolution as the Internet was. it’s just more Abstract and technical, so harder so see.
also there are coins with intrinsic value.
one Problem right now is of course, that we are in an extreme bubble – most coins are extremely overvalued, what makes the risks even higher.
the lumens traded at 0,02$ not to far ago.
i think, i figured one of the 2 coins, that Alex koyfman recommends now. indeed, intrinsic value, but also very Long time, risky …..and already with a huge valuation
I don’t know if that’s true or not, though it’s possible. I think the technology is very powerful and could be remarkable… but what if any particular blockchain is not the next Facebook or Google but is the next TCP/IP or HTTP (open source foundational protocols for the internet that were far more important than Facebook or Google, but not worth anything to any particular investor)? Then the beneficiaries will be the companies who use it best, and the public who benefit from that use, not necessarily the people who collaborated to create the protocols or speculated on the viability or primacy of a particular “crypto”. The ideas behind most of the cryptos I’ve looked at are much more “we’ll make a better security/transaction protocol” and much less “we’ll control and own this technology for the benefit of coinholders.”
thats the rethinking we have to do in investing in cryptocurrency I figured, compared to the internet. there the value lies in the “application layer” with Google, Amazon, etc and
not the deep protocol layer (TCP/IP, HTTP).
In Cryptocurrency it is the opposite, the “protocol layer” (Bitcoin, Ethereum) is more valuable than the “application layer”
sorry about my bad english
Keep on ‘gumshoeing’ Travis…U do fantastic wk but I think u’ll come to see that Blockchain and others like maybe Hashgraph are going to totally transform govt, the legal profession, Real Estate, medicine, and most other industries in the next few yrs.
I think there is a lot of both based on the voting rights etc. At the same time, unless it’s an unlimited coin (not a huge fan of those), then the coin burn alone raises value plus if you wallet then or can become a masternode then you get residuals.
Alex Koyfman originally recommended Golem & Aragon, but in the last week or so he told subscribers to sell Aragon and buy Gnosis
Well said.
My thought is why in the world would large corporations adopt somebody elses blockchain crypto when they have the money and resources to develop their own? Do they want to use some crypto developed by young guys from who knows where when they could retain control and do it themselves? Allot of the crypto hype is based on the coins becoming widely accepted but why would they? Ripple is a good example.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-25/ripple-wants-xrp-to-be-bitcoin-for-banks-if-only-the-banks-wanted-it
Interesting article in today’s NY Times about Bitcoin & cryptos…
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/22/insider/bitcoin-cryptocurrency-digital-reporting.html
I have dabbled in cryptos and do own Stellar for the above reasons. It seems to be one of the very few cryptos that actually has a legitimate use. The fact that its transactions occur significantly faster than Bitcoin is important. That said, what the actual value should be is a total mystery to me. I have watched my very small investment go up 400% and then drop over 50% in less than a month. Its crazy stuff.
Stellar and Ripple are not really cryptos. They are a nice network to transfer tokens, but they are centralized and more useful for banks. The banks won’t need the tokens to use the networks, which limits the future value of the tokens.
True except for one thing. While the banks will save ~ 33% on transaction costs by using the the ripple network alone, they will save ~60% of transactional costs by using the XRP bridge asset along with the network. Show me a bank that doesn’t want to save billions of dollars longterm, increase customer satisfaction and at the same time do all of this with out having to actually hold the XRP asset. Market makers will hold the XRP for the 3 seconds it takes to complete the transaction and take on the volatility of price during the 3 second transaction time. XRP is also a deflationary asset, meaning that every time a transaction occurs a small amount of XRPs are burned. This along with many other aspects will increase the value of XRP over time. Ripple is in the process of decentralizing their nodes, so they are increasingly becoming more decentralized. XRPs are also not tokens by definition, they are digital bridging assets.
The thing that gives Rickards definitively away as a scam artist is his massive youtube presence. He’s always calling doom and gloom and economic collapse every week. This wouldn’t be problematic if he wasn’t convinced he could sell you the solution.
Many of the channels that promote his content are newly created channels with clickbait headlines like “economic collapse starts 2/1/2018” and the channel owners delete the erroneously titled vids after the date passes.
It bothers me that his hair always looks kind of greasy. Too long, and greasy. Just doesn’t inspire confidence.
That’s a true albeit dangerously unPC observation. I’ve had the same visceral response. You’d think someone who’s figured out that video marketing works would also figure out how that kind of personal hygiene strikes people from whom he’s asking money.
How can stating a fact – that man has greasy hair be ‘unPC?’
The best comparison you can make is the dot.com period. Crazy valuations and everything was going to the moon. Reality was that 95% was rubbish and gone after it all collapsed but it took a few years. The same we are seeing now and probably this time will not be different. I own 30+ tokens and expect some won’t exist in a few years, but some will. You need to hedge yourself against fiat currencies. The best hedge is of course gold but if you want to have some other non correlating asset, bitcoin/ethereum look like good bets. XLM is a big piece of my crypto portfolio and it’s “only” up 150%.
It would seem that Stella is a little too high profile for the apparent increase to be possible, apart from the reasons mentioned before.
I would suggest that SYSCOIN is a much more likely less known about token. Indeed the value has stayed within the 70 range for a while and was at .53 at the right time on Wednesday last week.
Good luck if you buy some.
Alan
Jim Rickards has touted Gold going to at least $5,000/ounce in many comments, newsletters, etc. He also keeps promoting the idea that he has inside information from the US Government, CIA, FED and so on. Perhaps only Steve Bannon has had better past D.C. connections, as Rickards seems to imply. Time will tell their value. As Warren Buffett has said recently “this (bitcoin/crypto currency mania) “will all end badly.” I prefer to spend $2,000 on BRK.B shares, as the returns are much, much more likely to be solid. For me anything from Agora is suspect; Caveat emptor!
Not everything for Agora is suspect. I’ve made some serious money off a couple of their subscriptions. Also, you need to do your own due diligence and not use blind faith from these types of services.
I’m up 267% on Ray Blanco’s Penny Pot combined with a couple of my own picks. All way up, but I’m sticking with the Canadian pot market until the US gets its head out of its collective ass and takes MJ off of Schedule I. Hoping Trump trumps the moronic Keebler Elf AG (Jeff Sessions) and leaves the states alone to legalize medical and recreational.
Sampling much?
AGREED; I paid $5000. for a lifetime subscription for everything AGORA publishes, and I don’t regret it one bit. No analyst or publisher makes 100% perfect calls consistently, but several of their analysts have made me 10’s of thousands so I get a little disgruntled at all the complainers about how bad Agora is
. I suspect in most cases it was not the analyst to blame but FAILURE on the investors part to do their own due diligence and take responsibility for their own decision. If you invest blindly simply based on any analysts hyped prediction then you deserve what you get. Do your homework, BEFORE you invest rather than just accept someone else’s perhaps prejudiced opinion they hope will get you to part with your hard earned money.
Great analysis I can confirm it is the Stellar XLM token. Agora has made me back every penny I’ve paid for it and then some so I’m happy. Not every trade is a winner and I’m not sure about their crypto advise either.
I’ve been following his ads all week and from my experience with BitCoin, Ethereum and LiteCoin through Coinbase echos exactly what you’re putting forth here. I’ve personally reaped enough profit so far that if it zeros out in a day I’m still ahead of the game. I’ve noticed that the top BitCoin and Ethereum pretty much echo each other and have seemed to settle down to a familiar pattern. BitCoin seems to bottom at 10k to 11k and top out at 15k to 17k. Right now, I believe that this current scenario gives you a decent trading range to scarf a few bucks here and there. As far as guessing the next breakout coin I believe it’s anyone’s guess. Thanks for the article!
$No Ticker: who is this ‘dude’ who stole my moniker? You can’t use my portrait without penalty…
LOL!
Talking about cryptocurrency, does anyone know about the $0.10 crypto cruuency being touted by Crypto Profit Alert, membership $2000.00!
Since the block chain technology and the Cyber currency holder’s faith in the currency (or fear of being left out of a rising tide rather than perhaps faith) represents the “real” value of any individual cyber currency, it’s impossible to pick any cyber currency without crossing your fingers. But, considering that some major banks and governments are taking it seriously and getting behind it’s therory, it seems certain it’s here for the long haul. I took a modest position with the few cyber currencies hosted by Coinbase and will stand pat with that, knowing I can loose that much and still be fine.
I am at a loss regarding how to trade and where to trade…..
Seems like a closed vague exchange system…..
Why we cant trade like stocks…….
Now comes James Altrucher with his 3K en,try for 2000 persons….
A fast bucjk taking 6 million … What a hoax…..
Can Trvor clarify us on this mess…..
….. Where to trade in clean way…..
…. Why James is bombarding himself with self glory…..
Cryptocurrencies are not regulated, and do not trade in regulated exchanges. In order to buy them you generally have to use a service like Coinbase (the one I’ve tried) or one of the many competitors — you wire them dollars, they trade for you to turn your dollars into cryptocurrency “tokens”, and if you want to go beyond the few most popular tokens (bitcoin, ethereum, litecoin, etc.) you may have to go a bit beyond the “training wheels” of a service like Coinbase and transfer your bitcoin or ethereum to another exchange and trade on that exchange — most exchanges simply have trading for one crypto vs. another, so you’d see what the quote is to buy Ripple, for example, with your Bitcoin.
It is complicated, and some of the exchanges are no doubt better or safer than others. I haven’t delved into it much, because I don’t feel the need to speculate on the stuff I don’t understand… though I do have small positions in a couple of the big guys through a Coinbase wallet (which you would call an “account” if it was a brokerage firm).
thanks Trevor….
any opinion about ETORO
sorry for name…
johnson Travis….
I think the eTora site is one of the best. Easy to understand and use, and good charting system. A nice place to see the major CCs, The problem with it is that they charge Big Time for holding overnight any stock or CC. You need to choose a clear winner, and get out quick if the stock starts to consolidate. After initial good results I have reverted to playing the Options market on Schwab, where I can hold longer term and get better results.
EXACTLY my semtiment’s, it is simply too complicated for something I don’t fully understand. I can’t be bothered dealing through a 3ed party then trading one coin for another on a second exchange. No question crypto currencies did well as a sector in 2017 so I am content to keep my exposure limited to the BTL Group (BTL) whose professionals know and invest in the leading crypto’s, so much easier to just buy a stock that buys, holds and trades the different currencies without having to do it yourself..
The founders of BTL Group have a crypto background but BTL itself doesn’t actually deal with any buying, selling, trading of coins at all. They are strictly a blockchain company that has developed it’s own Private Blockchain called “Interbit.” For which they provide blockchain solutions to companies. I agree though that BTL is an interesting public company with potential.
Easier but not nearly as satisfying in returns from doing it yourself.
# Bit coins, Stellar Lumens thread.
I doubt anyone here has a new answer for why James is bombarding himself with “self glory”, but if you scroll up the page to 1:41 pm, TmreynaI asked a how-to question that Travis & Mike answered, that might help you too.