This is the intro from the ad we’re considering today:
“Jim Rickards: Halfway to heaven, in a location with life-threatening temperatures, a little-known company is about to unleash…
“‘God’s Gold’
“15 TIMES the concentration of the average global gold mine, this deposit contains arguably the highest-grade gold on the planet.“And one company trading for less than $9 per share is
poised to begin unleashing $638,100,000 worth of ‘God’s Gold.'”
Who wouldn’t want to know what that is, right? The ad tells us that this is super high-grade gold (15.7 grams/tonne) and a large deposit (approximately 6.9 million ounces of proven and probable reserves), which will certainly help us to pinpoint the stock.
The ad is a pitch for Rickards’ Gold Speculator ($3,000 a year), which is headed by Jim Rickards and designed to profit from his prediction that gold will go to $10,000 an ounce… though it appears that the gold stocks are picked and the analysis done by Byron King, who has been Agora Financial’s natural resources guy for many years and helmed their Outstanding Investments for a few years along the way.
And, as so often is the case, there’s a near-term date to give us a sense of urgency…
“The deposit contains arguably the richest bonanza-grade gold on the planet…
“And a company that’s trading for under $9 per share is poised to begin unleashing $638.1 million worth of it.
“When that wave of cash floods into this tiny company’s books…
“I expect share prices to shoot through the roof.
“For reasons you’ll soon discover, I believe this could happen on or before March 20, 2017.”
The dates in these ads are, of course, usually either made up or given hugely exaggerated importance — with good reason, because advertisements that don’t have a sense of urgency don’t convert the curious into subscribers. Any good copywriter knows that if you decide to “sleep on it” or mull it over, you’re more than likely not going to buy the newsletter — you need to be convinced that the opportunity is urgent and immediate… buy now!
So what is this? We get a little more inducement to act RIGHT NOW because it’s your last chance to get in before everyone else knows about it… word is leaking out! OMIGOSH! HURRY!
The specific pitch about that date is that “the company is going to open a critical piece of infrastructure as early as March 20, 2017.” So we’ll check on that as we go along, too.
From the ad:
“… you’ll need to act RIGHT NOW…
“Already, news of this heavenly-rich deposit is rocking the mining industry.
“Renown mining investor Tommy H. calls it:
‘…A spectacular high-grade resource.’
“Natural resource analyst Evin R. gushes:
‘One of the highest-grade and largest-sized gold deposits in the world…’
Are you getting our free Daily Update
"reveal" emails? If not,
just click here...“Chen L. of the The Gold Report has this to say:
‘A world-class mine…’
“And one of North America’s leading mining magazines puts it bluntly:
‘…A jewel in [the company’s] crown.'”
See what they did there? Not just add urgency, but also add some authentication with quotes from “renown” and “leading” sources to give you some confidence that Jim Rickards is not just making this up.
Quotes from reliable-sounding sources and upcoming catalysts, check! Now all we need is the promise of ludicrous wealth!
Rickards does that with another familiar routine popular with newsletter ad copywriters: Talk about thousand-percent gains over and over again, even while putting in smaller type that, well, perhaps you won’t see gains like 5,379% or 1,380% or 3,757%… but maybe it will be “only” several hundred or thousand percent.
That 5,379% gain isn’t made up, it’s a reference to the price spike made by the stock of a silver company that was founded and run by the CEO of this same secret “God’s Gold” company. Here’s more from the ad:
“Could he really deliver another 5,379%?
“Well, it’s highly unlikely.
“While this ‘God’s Gold’ company is trading for just under $9 a share…
“The silver firm I mentioned before was sitting at 78 cents when it took off.
“But that’s not to say this $9-per-share company won’t return gains in the hundreds to thousands of percent.”
I know, I know, the suspense is killing you — me too! But we’re almost there… can we get just a little more intel about just what the heck they mean by this made-up “God’s Gold” term first?
“‘God’s Gold’ is typically found near volcanoes or in very high-altitude mountain ranges…
“And why it can be so cheap to extract from the ground.
“Just listen to what one CEO had to say:
‘The beauty about [‘God’s Gold’] mineralization is that for the most part the processing is a tried and proven technology of simply crushing and milling the ore. This is not a complex type of ore nor is it an expensive process.'”
OK, so, as you might have guessed, “God’s Gold” is, well, gold. It’s just that they’re referencing a particular kind of gold deposit that tends to be found in mountainous areas — that quote is from Ken Booth, who is CEO of a microcap gold explorer called Redstar Gold (RGC in Toronto, if you’re curious)… which is NOT the stock being pitched by Rickards, it’s just that Redstar’s potential gold deposits are, like the “secret” gold company being teased here, likely low sulfidation epithermal mineral deposits.
Woohoo! Sounds fun, right?
Well, to be fair, most of us are not mining geeks — but these kinds of deposits have inspired some lust among investors in the past. Several of the big mines hinted at in Rickards’ pitch, including Kupol in Russia and Cerro Negro and El Penon in South America, are characterized by low sulfidation epithermal mineralization, and those were all high-grade deposits that were bought out by big miners for multi-billion-dollar prices.
And, of course, our secret “God’s Gold” stock is also in some ways a similar kind of deposit — so what is it?
Well, I hate to talk about something that most of you have probably already heard of… but here we are again being teased about Pretium Resources (PVG).
Yes, Pretium is right around $9 a share (and, probably thanks in no small part to Rickards’ attention, it’s rising already this morning, up about 8% — though gold and the average gold miners are all up today as well).
Their main asset is the under-construction Brucejack mine in northwestern British Columbia, and it is indeed an unusually large and high-grade gold mine. It’s also going to be producing gold this year, and is fully financed through commercial production — so this is a big and established company that’s on the verge of actually producing revenue… as is reflected by their market cap, which is about $1.5 billion.
Pretium is not an explorer that’s about to shoot into the headlines with a big new discovery — it’s a discovery that has been well-known for many years… though, despite the fact that CEO Robert Quartermain is widely followed and respected (thanks to his work building Silver Standard, which he left — and then he raised a big pile of IPO cash to buy Brucejack from Silver Standard), you could perhaps argue that the unique nature of the deposit has meant that it didn’t get as high a valuation as it otherwise might have. The gold is found in narrow and extremely high-grade veins, and it took quite a while before skeptical analysts and observers were ready to accept the estimates about how much gold might be in the ground and the best way to produce that gold.
Now, though, the sentiment seems to have swung pretty well over to Pretium’s side — the stock is not overvalued if things work as expected with early production and the confidence in the reserves increases, but neither is it all that cheap based on the proven and probable reserves… so to some degree buying in here represents at least a small leap of faith that the initial mining will produce as planned in these early years, and that the reserves will continue to expand to extend the mine life.
I’m no expert on this particular project, though I know many of our readers have been discussing it with great enthusiasm over the past year or two — including hendrixnuzzles, who has followed it all year in the mining discussion threads he has shepherded (you can browse those threads if you like, but some recent comments on Pretium start around here). The company did upgrade their reserves in mid-December, as is detailed in the updated version of their investor presentation here — the changes were not huge, and the grade was reduced a little, but proven reserves were boosted enough to give some additional confidence about the first few years of production.
And yes, there are quite a few analysts who are pretty excited about Brucejack and Pretium now — a summary piece by the Gold Report quotes many of those same folks cited in the Rickards ad.
The economics laid out for Brucejack by Pretium itself indicate that it’s probably priced about right — they calculate that the after-tax net present value of the mine, at $1,100 gold and $14 silver (which is pretty close to where we are now), is about $1.55 billion. So it’s pretty easy to imagine the stock doubling if the early commercial production is successful and without any big hiccups, or if gold prices soar much higher in the near term, but the notion of thousand-percent returns seems pretty wildly speculative at this point. There is potential for a strong long-term producer to emerge from this as well, and a pretty stable one even if gold prices are jittery, since the reserves could expand beyond the current projected mine life of 18 years, and since the per-ounce “all in” costs are expected to be low (near $500 an ounce, half of what many mines incur to produce an ounce of gold).
There’s plenty of operational risk, since we don’t know if they’ll hit a problem in the commissioning of the mine (it’s been pretty smooth so far), or if the initial wave of mining will produce gold at the level expected, and there’s always a heightened risk when you’re talking about a single mine and reliance on a single commodity, but it’s a pretty well-advanced construction project and the skeptics have so far been wrong about Pretium.
Oh, and that “March 20, 2017” date? That could be a few things, though I don’t know that any of them will have a marked impact on the stock price (unless there’s a surprising failure, that is). The transmission line is probably the biggest thing that will be completed in the next couple months, though the construction of the mill should also be wrapping up around then as well, as will the underground infrastructure (crusher, transfer tower, etc.)… and the underground development is continuing, with most of the ramps and shafts well underway or complete — so you can take your pick, but there doesn’t seem to be any one big piece of the infrastructure that’s not expected to be complete on time, and the company has been clear about indicating that they expect the mill to be commissioned in mid-2017 and the “first pour” of gold produced from the mine could come before the end of the year, so it’s probably wisest to assume that investors are expecting things to proceed apace.
What usually has a big impact on stock prices are surprises — so if they finish early, or early production is better than expected, that’s a good surprise… if they hit delays, or something breaks, or initial production is lousy or the mill needs re-engineering of some kind, that’s a bad surprise. Beyond that, it’s investor sentiment about gold stocks and the price of gold (both of which, as we’ve seen over the last twelve months, can move dramatically and quickly), so you can throw all that into your mental model and, voila! You can decide how much the stock should be worth.
I don’t own this one personally and have mostly shied away from investing in individual mining projects, though Franco-Nevada (FNV), the royalty company I’ve been buying most recently, does have a royalty on Brucejack.
Sound like the kind of “God’s Gold” you’d like to own? Let us know with a comment below.
Personally I am so tired of seeing promos by Rickards. I started out really listening to him and following his advice about 2 years ago but he rarely produces the wins he’s always promoting. Sure he has hd a couple positive earning picks, but so has everyone else in the last 2 years. Overall he is a lot of hot air. I bought PVG on Steve Sjuggeraud’s advice (Stansberry Research guy, and a good one) back in Aug 2015 so I’m up about 15% since then.
Couldn’t agree more!……..seems like he’s peddling a new service every quarter, instead of servicing the clients/reader he already has roped in……he’s getting tiresome.
I’m tired of 99% of them. I prefer Travis lol. That being said I have found that the newsletters are usually about stocks that are already on the rada screen or best yet the “be a Millionair” teases generally mean Walmart over 30 years or 32000000000000some other Blue Chipo that we don’t eed to spend $99 or in one case I jujst saw their fee was $4999 AND? a bargain at that just ask them.
Also agree. I take Richard’s entry $49 Strategic Investments – for the financial environment information and hint of macro forecasting, including from his colleagues, which is all very good. BUT he is not a good picker or timer and do not use picks (few reverse market picks would have been a disaster); same goes for Byron King who though a good guy, had trouble keeping together his prior commodities NL (Outstanding Investments) taken over from a legend, admittedly in a down market era. Another e.g. is international oil consultant guru, Dr. Kent Moors – not a good timer and really can’t tell you the good stuff in time because of political/economic conflicts of interest. Look to other NLs for ones with a sense / pulse of knowing markets, finding companies with up-momentum, and then anticipating problems ahead.
G & S will move higher, but JP Morgan has the restraint switch always ready (with illegal mass shorts, tacitly backed by US government; Morgan now acts risk free; from years of whipsawing G & S prices it not only made billions since taking over silver derivatives book from Bear Sterns in 2008, but has built up $700M+ ounces of physical silver in-house [ops exposure credit goes to Ted Butler and a chief heralder of his efforts, Ed Steer]. Some day that G & S dam will wildly break open; only when government chooses or is forced into letting go. Thing is, you need to be gone by then because “windfall profits” will be on every politician’s lips – including eyes toward PVG.
Anything coming from Agora Financial just automatically raises the hair on my neck. I have never been a fan of Agora, to put it nicely. It’s always worth adding to my list and see if it does indeed take off.
There used to be a “Free” website, “David Stockman’s Contracorner” where Stockman provided a point of view on the Fed, Wall St. etc. Very insightful. Never promoted any equity, PM, Fund, etc. Just financial facts and stats. More than just a Williams Shadow Stats, which I think is a nice piece of work.
Then he got swept up in the Agora vacuum cleaner, and access to the site is paid and you get a newsletter and stock picks.
One of the best financial info sites on the net gone….
Aside from Regan’s Budget Director, Congressman, he’s one of the founding partners of Black Rock, so his resume reads better than Rickards’.
If you look at the fine print, you’ll see Stansbury, Casey, Bonner, all in the same family of newletter hawkers. The copywriters are the same style, and the “sector analysts” move like revolving doors-one newsletter to the next with a different heading.
Casey’s sardonic humor is libertarian so I do enjoy the free articles and interviews from time to time.
But like you Agora and the rest are the HSN of investing.
Marco – May I ask: what PM in your post abbreviates; where it is that you read Casey now? Thanks.
Sorry… finally recognized Precious Metals… but Casey query stands.
Well glad you sussed out the PM’s:-) Casey has several newsletters they hawk. So, I took a 30 day trial at no cost, then cancelled before day 30.
Ever since, I get these “inside looks,” current newsletters about every 3 months with some offer to subscribe, video interview snippets- he’s done video’s with Rickards, Mike Maloney, Dent, etc. Basically they keep trying to give me baited hooks which I pass on, but it doesn’t stop.
As I’ve noted elsewhere, my “hobby” is mining; Pm’s, copper mostly, but some rare earths, and uranium (I think it’s going to make a big comeback;-).
When you hit as many sites as I do on an evening or weekend you get on “lists.” A lot of stuff comes to you as free…bait. One I still get monthly no less, is the Money Map report which I’ve never subscribed to!! And what’s in it, is worth every cent I paid.
I had the same experience…endless pitches from Agora newsletter gurus. Canceled Casey, was tired of the political taint…and kept getting issues now and then, like you. One of them recommended NAK. I bought at .80. It went from there to 3.52, currently sagging/sideways waiting for more news about EPA veto of permitting app being removed by Trump appointee Pruitt, and new partner to develop the huge in-ground deposit.
So, in the end, thanks Doug Casey! It was worth the aggravation.
do you have any inside scoop on EPA and potential partner?
What gold and uranium stocks do you love. Besidecs agor on gold, Oxford is hot on uranium
My major holding is Mexus Gold – MXSG OTCQB. Sonora state Mexico Santa Elena project near the city of Caborca about 3 hour south of Phoenix. Mexus had first test pour recently. Shoestring, low cost operation with a Mexican JV partner at 50/50 split – rare – after initial construction. Low debt – largely small shareholder financed thru the PP route. Financials will look lousy for another 2 quarters so call it putting a dime on a dollar but with many of the variables already accounted for. Not for everybody and not for widows and orphans although in truth several “widows” are major holders as their investor husbands didn’t live to see this one come to fruition. Mexus controls three other properties in Sonora state. rjw/mkc
Redstar discussion led me to PVG which meets most of my position criteria. The more potential for growth from a mezzanine operator the more attractive they are to me.
Pretium Resources Inc. appears to be one of the go to projects that is being touted by many gold mining analyst. Because the sector was in a slump for so long, exploration and new development slowed down to the point that there are not many high quality projects to invest in. PVG is a high grade project that should do well in a higher priced AU environment. This is the kind of project that many analyst are pushing as the rebound in gold mining happens. They see it as a less risk investment that should start to generate income in the very near future. It has most of what we AU mining investors look for. That being a large high grade deposit that can be exploited at a cost that is well below the commodity’s price.
Has anybody really struck “Gold” from Rickard’s predictions? He seems t/b the new Dr. Doom, & the old Dr. Doom died. 🙂
Does anyone have any experience with Resource Stock Digest – “Gold-X”(https://www.angelnexus.com/o/op/117080), which pushes gold and other commodity companies?
I like Mawson resources MUX or MWSNF otc USA
It is in the same league as PVG but it still only 29 cents in USD.
I own some and am waiting till they can file their resource estimate which should be almost as much or even more than PVG. The strike is in Fnland and is huge and good quality.
That should be MAW on toronto exchange although MUX is good too.Sorry for the mistake
I am curious how you feel about MAW now. Is it a buy? I hope you do well.
I own enough gold mining stocks. So I sold some Feb $8 puts on PVG @.55 not long ago. If I’m forced to buy, it won’t hurt me to own a little more. I do think some Canadian Miners are a good buy as long as Canada doesn’t Nationalize them to make up for all the Canadian Central Bank gold bullion sold over the last 30 years. They are, afterall, a socialist government. There are a number of good quality cheap Canadian mining cos. If the price of gold increases, it might be better than owning the bullion.
I think you have an inaccurate impression of Canadian politics, if you believe there is risk of nationalization of Canadian mining companies.
Can you tell us why it’s inaccurate? Why is there no risk of nationalization? Why are you so confident of that?
For one thing, Canada does not have Drumpf duplicate for Prime Minister; and for another, there is no precedent of the Canadian government nationalizing gold mines!
No, we have a drama teacher with a silver spoon and papa’s money, who is very learned on the benefit of establishing a Foundation similar to the Clinton Foundation, except it will bare his name. Our dear Pm is working on it…..NOW
And someone wants to donate to erect a statue of his father? Please? What sort of back yard deal is going on there?
Yes they do, he just gave away 8 million dollars to fund some Jihadist group.
John, For the most part the readership here is more sophisticated than that at other sites, but a few people like you still like to talk out of their ass. You obviously don’t know what a socialist government is, and as a Canadian, I can tell you there is much less risk of corporate nationalization occurring here than in the States under Trump. De-nationalization has been the theme here for the last 50 years.
With regards to gold, if gold goes up, that tide will lift all ships (all mining companies) – it’s just the way it works. The good and the bad go up in value. The fact is no one knows what will happen to gold – hence the price of gold mining stocks.
Share your point of view. While American, I do a lot of business in Canada and while there’s a wee bit of bubble in housing esp Vancouver, as a natural resource country, type of government not withstanding, does appear to the untrained eye as relatively sane piece of Terra Firma.
Point of fact I store a fair bit of my gold holdings in Canadian vaults-and none in the uS.
For most of us deplorables, Canada seems at times to be thought of as a norther suburb of the uS, and we do drag you around to the skirmishes as we do the Brits.
You’re like that neighbor who’s home is well maintained, lawn and shrubs in marvelous condition, but we don’t know what you do for a living:-)
Assume you’ve been privy to the Agora (not to pile on) shilling of how we Yanks can tap into the Canadian Retirement system, since our’s is beyond broke.
Took a grand many-month tour in my youth before nationalism took hold and I decided I’d acquiesce to forced service in Vietnam vs. a move North.
Pomposity is not evidence of sophistication!
Well, I’ve owned PVG long before Rickard’s Byron “discovered” it, and closer to $4/share. Still hold it. A bit overlooked in the diatribe is their largest investor…a Chinese Mining company. They bought a ton of shares and warrants when PVG needed the cash to continue “God’s work.” They gave them real cash for a heck of lot of a real stake in the mine.
Say what you will, but these buyers didn’t fall off the back of turnip truck or rickshaw. It’s been as high as $15 in the mania phase a few years back, but I’ve never sold. They seem to have done everything right. Experienced “First Nation” predominate workforce, all the permitting on schedule, and attracted some Chinese friends who are big in the biz.
I don’t know when I’d sell. At times it’s the only green in my Ameritrade account:-)
As Travis has repeatedly pointed out, it pays to be somewhat skeptical of newsletter writers claims because they are often exaggerated, but on the other end of that spectrum is excessive cynicism where people fail to do due diligence to sort fact from fiction. We need someone like Travis to counter the hyperbole that is typical of many publishers seeking to sell subscriptions to gullible and often novice or naive investors, but that does not mean their services are without value. Without them I might have never found some stocks that made me good returns, but I consider it MY personal responsibility to VERIFY information and make my own decision as to what and when I should buy, not just blindly buy some analysts hyped recommendation. I suspect that the people doing the most complaining about newsletters have done a minimum of personal due diligence, or are most likely to write in after a bad experience whe the fault may be their own lack of due diligence.
In regards to Agora and Jim Rickards there are certainly elements worthy of criticism but being a lifetime member of Agora , Stansberry and Oxford Club for well over 2 decades, and learning much from numerous of their analysts, some of whom I trust more than others.I would say on balance the journey has been worth it. I was reading Jim Rickard’s books long before he was hired by Agora and in turn hired Byron King who made me lots of money with his Outstanding Investments letter as an Agora analyst. When Jim Rickard.s released his Gold Investment letter as vetted by Byron King who is a trained geologist, there were 17 initial recommendations of which I had already owned 14 for some time and had one more on my buy list. There are probably less than a dozen precious metals analysts writing for various organizations that do as much basic research in the sector as I do, and their services are not cheap. One recently boasted that his company spends $300,000 a year just to cover his travel expenses and salary. I buy lots of stocks under a dollar where I have confidence in management and doubles and triples are quite common and I average at least one 10 bagger per year, which more than makes up for any small losers, but I play it conservative and rarely invest more than $500. to $1000. in any one stock until they prove themselves over time. In fact I have now built a portfolio of around 200 stocks and all I need to do is keep adding to the top 25 that changes from time to time, in other words, I no longer need to find new stocks to invest in to keep my capital profitably positioned, I just enjoy discovering potential winners early in their development cycle.
In regards to Pretium, I have owned it for years and held through the period when doubts were being cast on its viability and while it has already made me money, I am expecting a big payday once the mine is actually built, but interestingly enough, the most money in the metals sector is made on DISCOVERY as opposed to mature companies, which is why I like the prospect generator model where explorers have multiple projects and farm them out in joint ventures and royalty deals to spread the risk. While it did not come up in the article, it should also be noted that Pretium is only one of at least 30 companies exploring in what is known as the GOLDEN TRIANGLE of central B.C. because of the high grades and size of deposits being found there. I have just completed a study of the companies operating in the area and have selected half a dozen others I consider as worthy of a speculative investment, which is how Doug Casey made his millions as did John Templeman before him.
it will be the first in a series of columns I will be writing on specific mining districts as my improving health allows, so that is something to be looking
forward too in 2017. I will also have a column on base metals like copper and zinc that have been in the news of late.
Are you the boss of the new Smith Center in Las Vegas? I read about it on the Vegas Seven website and now I want to go there. I live about 4 hours away in So Cal, but am excited to see Las Vegas expand access to quality entertainment for residents and others. If this is you, thank you!
Thanks, Myron, for that long wise useful comment.
This is to Myron Martin……Where will your columns be found? I would like the information that you have. What are the mining stocks you own? It is hard to find good information. Thanks.
Hi Myron, I’ve been hoping 2017 is ringing in health and vitality for you……waiting for your column as well. smiles
Thank you for your insight, I consider it a gift to receive information shared from an experienced source as an invaluable learning opportunity; a gift well-given with integrity is most appreciated. May you results serve you well. Tks.
Hi Myron, how do we get copies of your columns? Thanks
I am a fairly new investor. I would love to know what information you gather and how you do it for you “Due Diligence”?
By the way, I guess I can say this here, I am so grateful to find stock gumshoe.com, I feel like this is moving me forward a giant step in “wising me up” about stocks. Thanks.
Myron’s columns are available here: http://www.stockgumshoe.com/author/takeprofits/
Best2You&All
Hi Myron,
I, too, would be very interested in reading your articles. Where can we find them please? I really enjoyed reading the above as I am a novice investor. I live in New Zealand which is a little distance from Canada and the U.S. !
Robin
Thank you Travis for the insight! I follow Rickards “cheaper” letter and I bought PVG about 9 months ago and doubled my investment which was not all that much, sold half of it then and bought it right back and it seems to be still doing fairly well with a few hiccups along the way! I think I will stay in it and possibly buy more.. the one thing that bothers me is I wish Rickards would let his already subscribers know this stuff, I felt like I was being left out because I can’t afford the 3 grand!
I did PVG without Rickards. My own view is one can get pretty good at studying a sector or two or three, but not all, many, or a lot. Just always wanted to be a mining engineer (that didn’t happen) but mining, and not just gold, became a “hobby” of study.
That’s how I came across PVG, and a couple of others. So, in a sector, I’ve done ok.
When I get out of my comfort zone, or listen to anyone, especially investor news letters, I’ve taken it in the shorts.
My point of view is pick some sectors that reading, learning, studying is not a chore, but more of a hobby.
You’ll get good at it, and can make some good choices to park your money. I’ll never make any money in Financials. Studying those markets puts me to sleep. So I’m giving up gains (short or long) because I don’t like anything about it.
I learned my “approach” by trading commodities at the CBOT, and MERC. I did quite well for several years before getting out (too much adrenaline).
Only traded softs; cattle, wheat, corn, beans, sugar, etc. but I do know the gestation time of cattle; speed of the chain in slaughter houses, sugar from cane vs beets, etc. I enjoyed learning, in depth, an industry or a commodity. My investing experience is only a few inches wide, but miles deep, and I stay within those inches.
Find your “hobbies” and enjoy and make money. So you may miss the next housing crisis, but you’ll do fine with lumber:-)
Excellent advice for anyone, in any sector — everyone has at least a few things that they can be more informed about than the average investor, and before you know it that information creates some insight that has a chance to create some profit for you (particularly if you can avoid shooting yourself in the foot by overthinking everything and jitterbugging in and out of positions when the breeze shifts).
Travis, wow, a jitterbug reference! You’re aging yourself:-)
My view is if you really research your hobby and take in many points of view which are facts, research, not opinions, you place your bet.
If you overthink and feel a breeze that changes so you “jitterbug”-god I love that term, in/out, you’re only at the BA “degree” level in your hobby. When you get to the PhD level; remember this is a hobby not a career; you’ll find the groove and stay confident.
I’ve been in silver since 4 and gold under 400, but never saw the housing bubble. Still own both and more of them and they’re not in a bank or in these late great united States.
EU is going to crack up likely first, then JPN, then the game is up here. All those currency units are going to come here, the last hideout of scoundrels. P/E’s will be done in scientific notation.
The Street is a casino, and rigged worse than Vegas.
Agora and their ilk are just collecting their vig and get you inside the casino.
Everyone wants you to “jitterbug” as there’s commissions/vig on every jitter.
My favorite quip: “Stay frosty!”
Well, if it makes you feel any better, I paid more than $3K for Rickards Gold Speculator at first, then went full “life time member” on all 5 of his services and daily newsletters. Unfortunately I invested in gold right at height of gold prices mid 2016 so have taken a 35% negative beating to date on the Gold Speculator list of Jr gold mining stocks. Not blaming Rickards, just bad timing for me. I find him to be extraordinarily intelligent and insightful on “the big macro picture” and feel that his insight via his work experience, education, and incredible connections, esp. with FED bankers to be very beneficial in understanding what the entire global financial system may be in for. I have read all of his books except “The Road To Ruin” which just arrived and agree with his long term analysis of a monetary collapse with a failing global fiat monetary system……….so, if I believe in this scenario it only makes sense that I invest in gold related investments, not just for wealth preservation, but for profit, so went 50% GDX,+GDXJ and 50% in Rickards gold mining penny stock picks to cover the full range. After past 2 years of reading full time daily I do believe we will have an historic economic crash sooner than later and in 2008 while my “Big Hedge Fund management co” lost 40% of my 401K, the GDX went up 240%. Wished I knew then what I know now as I’d be in one hell of a better financial position today, so learning from recent history and see the massive debt issues at hand, no improvement in SEC laws, mega stock market and real estate bubble and it looks like 2007-08 all over again but with 8 times the debt it will be much worse and this time no wealthy FED big enough to bail out banks or companies……….so, although it’s been a volatile ride in the gold mining markets I have not sold one share and think they will do very well during this next mega crash. So many other factors to consider this time as well such as a shortage on physical gold, China/Russia++ buying up massive gold supplies, not to mention, the “new and improved SDR’s” with the Chinese Yuan in that new basket of currencies to buy instead of T-Bills/American debt. Porter Stansberry was right all of these years in sounding the alarm bells in the US losing it’s USD major Reserve currency status which is well under way and will speed up in 2017. Not going to be good for the USA and can’t think of a better place to have my money than in gold/silver related investments right now (CASH is good too!)…………..just my 2 cents worth, but Rickards is smart and I do think that currency wars will break out and countries will be forced to sit down and agree to go back to a gold standard to stabilize the world monetary supply or we all lose………..we cannot beat the Chinese in a currency deval war………….it’s only a matter of time now. Good luck and strap your seat belts on, 2017 is going to be a wild ride………………..
Very well said. I’ve read all of Rickards before he became
Dr. Gold/Talking Head. Check out the Great Deformation by Stockman, and round out your reading with the Creature from Jekyll Island.
I might part with the amount of lucre you gave Agora for Rickards lifetime, only if the Almighty came down and gave me a few tips.
PM’s are the most manipulated markets on the planet (used to be bellies on the MERC, but they don’t trade any longer).
Aside from strapping yourself in, if you’re in PM’s get a neck brace too. As you note, just stay on the horse, don’t get bucked off, because in no way is this going to hold together through the end of this decade.
And nothing against Canadians, but NO government goes out with a whimper.
Hold physical, not in bank, and not on your home turf. They can take anything they want from you, like Modi waking up one morning and making the main currency units of his country worthless.
They’ve taken your gold and devalued your paper in the past; they’ll do it again. Every piece of paper you own has counter party risk; equities, ETF’s, Bonds, etc.
A bar or a coin in your hand has NONE. Just don’t advertise how much and where. Likely the NSA monitors this site too:-)
What are some of the gold mining penny stock picks other than PVG?
I like ascot resources at 2 a share. They are south of Bruce jack and if you look on map you go by the ascot mine on the way up to Bruce jack. It is called premier. I have held for 2 years and some of their drills are truly amazing. I think this will be the size of pvg at least but this is my opinion. Do your own dd.
I agree with Mr. Lopes. Everything I hear from Jim Rickards is doom and gloom but like Travis mentions in his write up for a mere $3,000 Mr. Rickards can “potentially” guide you to a virtual fortune with a heavy emphasis on the potentially. I have yet to find anyone other than Travis who gives the truth and the straight skinny on any of these can’t miss investments. Advice from folks like those of Jim Rockards ilk have only netted me losses of over $40,000 over the past 18 months.
I had the same misfortune with Jim Cramer a few years back.
For Rickards/King to be using such a well known and publicised miner as PVG as a tease makes me wonder why anyone would pay $3k for their ‘research’. Pretty much the same list of miners as everyone else recos. I decided against Rickards gold letter as soon as I saw it was really being run by Byron King. He headed two past investment letters, not both defunct (what does that tell you?). I subscribed to both and lost many $k following his ill begot advise. I do own PVG already from last Oct. It is still about the same price, but I do have high expectations for it and plan to hold for the long term.
I subscribe to Rickard’s entry level Strategic Intelligence ($50/year) and Byron King picks the mining stocks for that portfolio too. I haven’t been impressed by his picks, or more precisely the timing of his picks. But the Strategic Intelligence portfolio is more of a long term play and about 1/3 of his mining stocks are in the black.
I thought about subscribing to the Gold Speculator but with Byron King is picking the stocks I said no thanks. I can’t see how it would be worth the money with what I’ve seen so far from him.
Brilliant move on your part. My hearty congrats on critical thinking overwhelming the shouting of the shills.
As far as gold goes I think I will go with the po-mans streaming and royalty company (SAND)Sandstorm Gold $3.78 last I looked ,and let it turn into a Franco-Nevada.I like to hold for the the long run, in hopes of divedins and groth. Jim
That’s my largest gold position as well, but the dip in FNV gave me an opportunity to buy and FNV is clearly the least risky and most established “blue chip” name in the royalty space.
Travis, well put. As it’s my hobby, I do own a fair bit of FNV. I try to root around in the market rags/sites and see if I can find names where Sprott is putting their money.
They spend considerable effort from exploration companies all the way to the streamers like FNV and everyone in between.
They’re money behind a number of firms either pink sheet or on the Toronto exchange. One does have to dig to even find if Sprott is financing. This differs from their Sprott investments for lay person. This is how he grows his company.
As with any investment, even they get a few wrong, but if R. Rule is behind it, Sprott is financing, it’s a real good, researched bet. They’re playing with Their Own money.
You can’t buy into what they do, but I’d rather spend the time and pick up a lead on a name and invest $5K in it, than taking Byron’s picks. I know it’s all under the Rickards name, but Byron’s doing the picking, just like N. Prinz is putting forth opportunities supporting Rickards global currency re-set/book content thesis.
Rickards is brilliant, but for Agora to mine his brand, they gave him Byron, and Naomi.
She’s published, and sharp as a tack. But if you want the “house” on your side, finding out where Sprott is backing a play is like having 30 geologists and accomplished miners on your research team.
An irregular has to dig deep to find any tie in. It’s all private financing and well guarded, but sometimes dots connect….
“…you need to be convinced that the opportunity
is urgent and immediate… buy now!…”
That is so true. I get a chuckle out of the TV cookware infomercials that show a digital countdown clock on their adverts as if you only have 2:13 and counting left to call in your order. Like they can tell when you saw the ad on TV. Really!
I’ve dabbled in the junior miners and followed them for several years, made some, lost some. My biggest mistake was buying into Pershing Gold (PGLC) too early. It has lots of good news: fully permitted, in Nevada’s best location bordering some of the biggies who could buy them out, mostly owned by millionaire/billionaire insiders (Dr Frost of TEVA fame recently sold out though), has virtually no debt, CEO used to run Franco-Nevada US ops, 3 open pits and new processing equipment bought out of previous owner bankruptcy, went from OTC to NASQAQ listing, expanded from 1K to 25K acres, lots of good recent drill results, etc. etc. The only problem with the company is that after several years of exploring they have yet to actually PRODUCE a single ounce!!! All that gold is still in the ground and nobody wants to buy a mine that has no revenue/profit while even the lesser outfits are cranking it out. Price hasn’t changed drastically and I’m sure someday it will be a big deal, but who wants to wait.
So I sold the PGLC and started looking into other juniors in more detail. I found some good opinion/analysis on the Seeking Alpha site, particularly by a “Taylor Dart” who goes into great detail in his recommendations, writes a column almost weekly or when something turns, and discloses his own portfolio (in Canadian Dollars, unfortunately). I’ve tried a few of his recommendations and so far have seen those stocks rise even while gold dropped $200 post election. There are about half a dozen regular S. Alpha contributors who write a lot about gold/silver, both bulls and bears, and have different investing styles and theories. So if you like this volatile speculative sector they make interesting reading.
Thank God for Travis’s fine work of uncovering these teases . Every one should enroll as an irregular , for less than $50 the information Travis provides is priceless!
That having been said ,my suggestion would be to take the $2,000 saved and BUY some CVR Chevron March 17, 2017 $125 Strike Call Options. With Oil rising these should do well.
Remember Mystery Options Man ( MOM ) knows best.
Correction Above Chevron is CVX and NOT CVR Sorry for the Typo!
Here is a link to a write up on Bravada Gold. I have a nice position in this stock. I would be interested in any thoughts or feedback.You might also consider signing up for the free newsletter. He offers a premium service but I am not a subscriber.
http://www.goldinvestmentletter.com/bravada-gold-upside-potential-remains-significant/
Thanx for the Bravada Gold stock BRA.V Canadian and BGAVF OTC .
You’re welcome…what is unclear at this time is whether gold resumes its upward climb or retests lows. The strength or weakness of the dollar has been a fairly good indicator on the direction of gold, but other factors certainly impact as well. I would recommend following Doug Eberhardt’s thoughts which are not released every day so I just check late each evening or early before markets open. He has always treated me fairly in my dealings with him and I find value in his thoughts and opinions along with the products he offers.
http://buygoldandsilversafely.com/category/current-thoughts/
Well, you have indeed touched on the key issue. If gold continues back up, there are a slew of mining stocks that will go up also. If the current situation is a ‘bear trap’ the opposite is true. From past experience I know that the market makers love to put the squeeze on those who buy into the rally. This is especially true with the penny stocks.
I looked in my crystal ball, but it gave no answer to this question of bear trip or the real deal.
Miners are generally a 3 to 1 leverage play on the price trend of gold….both ways;-)
Looking at the COT report, there’s a lot of shorts still out there, which would imply a trap. That said, I’m in the positions I want to be in for the reasons I made the decisions I did.
I think March will be the interesting month. Get past the Trump swearing in, and most of the way through the first 100 days, and see how the paid 535 non-representative representatives lean or stonewall.
Fed will raise in March but that’s NBD given the wage report.
Au was up all week but Friday, so if they want to smash it down, it’ll be on Sunday nite US when the Asian markets open, or between 9-10 AM EST as usual.
That said, Au and miners are the operational definition of volatility.
Interesting . . . your comment about the Fed knocking down the price of gold. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen that on the Kitco chart from 8:30-9:00 until 10:00-10:30 AM with an almost vertical drop in price with massive selling volume, then they trickle buy it back for the rest of the session and make money on the rebound.
Your quote above is the first time I’ve seen anyone else comment on the sudden drops.
BVA I Believe