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“Quadruple-play Gold Stock for 2010”

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, December 23, 2009

I haven’t written about Martin Weiss and one of his picks in a little while, and Weiss Research is now promoting a special conference call and “inner circle” investment group that will identify his team’s best picks for 2010.

Including, as apparently one of his favorites, a gold stock. Here’s the intro to the ad:

“Never before in my 40-year investment career have I seen a broader range of global profit opportunities converging into one time and place.

“That’s why, right now, every analyst on my team is preparing to name his #1 investment pick for 2010 during an exclusive teleconference I’m hosting on New Year’s weekend.

“We’re doing this with one simple goal in mind: To help make sure that, when the markets open for the first time in the new year — on January 4th, 2010 — every member of The Weiss Elite will be ready to begin buying the investments we believe can make 2010 your most profitable year ever.

“Here’s just ONE example …

“Our China and resource specialists have uncovered a little-known stock that gives investors FOUR ways to profit as the Federal Reserve continues printing greenbacks like there’s no tomorrow — a recommendation that has “quadruple-play potential” written all over it:

“FIRST: It’s a gold mining company. So the company’s profits and share price should surge as governments, central banks and investors continue pushing gold prices higher.

“SECOND: It’s a CHINESE gold stock, in partnership with the Chinese government. A state-sponsored enterprise owns almost half this company’s shares, giving it the clout and the capital needed to exploit its gold reserves … and a likely built-in customer, as Beijing continues to add substantially to its gold reserves.

“THIRD: It boasts truly outstanding top management. In September, the company announced that revenues had surged by nearly two-thirds over last year. Reason: Not only did gold prices surge, but gold production also surged to a new quarterly record.

“AND FOURTH: This stock gives you substantial leverage. In 2010, the company’s biggest mine is expected to produce gold at a cash price of just ONE-THIRD today’s price of gold.

“Most important, the company’s gold reserves are worth more than ten times the total value of the company’s shares.

“On January 1, my team will name this stock and document why we conservatively believe it could double your money in 2010 even if gold does not surge.”

Well, you know me — your friendly neighborhood Stock Gumshoe is a bit impatient, I don’t want to have to wait until January 1 to hear about this stock. And frankly, I don’t want to pay up $595 to Martin Weiss for this “lifetime” membership in “The Weiss Elite” (this is one of those deals that many publishers do, a big one-time payment in exchange for “lifetime” access to a number of their newsletters — though most of the time these kinds of “elite” deals cost at least a couple thousand bucks, so The Weiss Elite comes off as seeming a bit needy here). The letters in this case are the Asia Stock Alert, Dividend Superstars, Safe Money Report, Real Wealth Report and World Currency Alert, most of which I’ve written about from time to time. (A few have been reviewed at Stock Gumshoe Reviews, you can see all the current Weiss-published newsletters that we have reviews on file for here.)

But we had a point, yes? Right! A gold stock to uncover — from those clues we must be talking about …

Jinshan Gold Mines (JIN in Toronto, JINFF on the pink sheets)

Jinshan, which is currently in the process of trying to change its name to China Gold International Resources, is a Canadian company that’s 41% owned by China National Gold, the state-owned gold mining company. Their major mine is Chang Shan Hao, up near the Mongolian border (not too far from former partner Ivanhoe Mines and their Oyu Tolgoi project in Mongolia, actually — China is the world’s largest gold producer now, and there are several big belts of gold resources that have been identified across Northern China, Mongolia, Russia and the ‘Stan countries). Ivanhoe, incidentally, has also often been a teaser target — they are focused almost entirely on their Mongolian projects now, which finally have a government agreement in place, and they were the ones who sold that then-42% holding in Jinshan to China National Gold.

Jinshan has gotten a significantly higher profile with all the talk about China’s interest in gold, and with the general increase in gold prices (which has obviously faltered a little bit recently) — the shares are up about 100% from when I last wrote about them in July for the Irregulars, when Matt Badiali was touting the shares (I republished that article here on the free site a couple months later, if you’re interested). So it may be a double in 2010, of course, but Weiss’ folks certainly didn’t uncover an unknown investment here.

I am, however, quite certain that this is the stock Weiss will promote on January 1 in that special Weiss Elite “Crucial teleconference” — they did increase revenues by “almost 2/3” in the last quarter (up about 61%, actually), they do have a government partner who owns “nearly half”, and, frankly, they’re one of the few significant China gold mining companies that Americans can easily buy — and Weiss gets little mileage from suggesting stocks that his subscribers would have a hard time buying. I’m actually personally a little more intrigued by Ivanhoe (IVN in both NY and Toronto) these days, and by Eldorado Gold (EGO, or ELD in Toronto — they recently bought the other oft-teased Chinese gold miner, Sino Gold), but have never owned any of these stocks. I did own the other China precious metals miner that gets teased often, Silvercorp Metals (SVM), which is one of the lowest-cost silver producers in the world, but no longer hold those shares, either.

And just to finish up with one more quickie, Weiss does also tease some of the other ideas that his specialists will tout as 2010 winners on January 1 — he doesn’t give specific-enough clues for most of them, but there’s one that’s worth a quick look:

“Like buying all the oil you want at an 85% DISCOUNT. Chances are you’ve never heard of this leading oil and gas producer. It’s in the last place you’d look for a top oil exploration, production, refining and retailing giant.

“But this little-known company boasts gas station operations all over Europe and is now aggressively expanding into more than 40 countries worldwide, including China. While the company controls reserves worth $490 billion at oil’s current price, the total value of its shares is only $73 billion. In that sense, the stock is trading at only 15% of the above-ground value of the company’s reserves.”

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I’ll hazard a guess here, since it’s hard to know what numbers they use to come up with these valuations, but I suspect that this is Lukoil (LKOD in London, LUKOY for the pink sheets ADR). This is probably the most underappreciated oil company in the world among investors, true, but it’s hard to fault investors for being wary of a Russian firm — if you’re not a friend of Putin, there’s no guarantee that you get much in the way of shareholder rights. This is true of many countries where we invest these days, where we probably take too much for granted, but Russia worries me more than most.

I could be wrong on this, Lukoil’s market cap right now is actually more like $50 billion — a closer bet for that market cap, just FYI, might be Statoil Hydro (STO), which doesn’t have nearly the reserves but does also have a significant European retail presence and is making a smaller foray into China. Statoil is a global operator, like Lukoil, but is primarily known for their deepwater expertise, developed over decades of exploring the North Sea. The international reach of the two firms is fairly similar, either could be described with a straight face as “aggressively expanding into more than 40 countries.” Lukoil has been teased before by Silk Road Investor (which is from KCI, not Weiss), and by Bob Czeschin, who last Spring called it the “most undervalued oil company in the world. Statoil was teased by the Motley Fool Income Investor folks last year.

So what do you think? Martin Weiss probably gets more flack than any other newsletter publisher over at the Stock Gumshoe Reviews site, thanks to the Depression fearmongering of his Million-Dollar Contrarian Portfolio promotions (which still might be right eventually, of course, but apparently caused his followers to miss much of this year’s rally, which made them very grumpy) — but will his Chinese gold pick be a winner? Feel like joining the “Weiss Elite?” Let us know with a comment below.

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steve
Guest
steve
December 23, 2009 1:01 pm

I already figured out JINFF and bot 1k sh! I’m hoping to beat the crowd and I like the story.

Tim
Guest
Tim
December 23, 2009 1:10 pm

Bought bullion in 2002 and sold most of it during the various upswings. Been trading in and out of miners since then also. There is only one solid analyst in the area worth subscribing to as far as I am concerned and that is J. Doody. I would avoid chinese and mongolian miners like the plague,there are better, safer plays in canada, esp, quebec. imho.

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TOR(Victor)
Member
TOR(Victor)
December 23, 2009 1:32 pm

I have owned this stock for about two years. With the latest increase in Gold, I am finally at break even. It has ben touted a fair number of times. I will still hold it and hope for the best.

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Robert H.
Robert H.
December 23, 2009 1:38 pm

I checked out the Weiss Research site and do not find the “Weiss Elite” service offered for $595. I subscribe to Edelson’s Real Wealth Report (not too impressed) and HAVE been getting bombarded by ads from the Uncommon Wisdom division of Weiss Research, to invest in its Inner Circle lifetime membership, but that is NOT so paltry — only a $7,400 one-time fee. Lots of moolah for a Chinese gold stock pick!

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Robert Berke
Member
Robert Berke
December 23, 2009 1:53 pm

2 weeks ago, Lukoil won a development contract with Iraq to develop the W. Querna field, as a jv venture with Statoil, the field estimated at 12 b/b/oil. Luk is senior partner in jv with about 70% of the stake.

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@SnoopyJC
Guest
December 23, 2009 3:01 pm

JINFF is coming close to all-time-highs at 3.14. It looks like a buy if it can clear this level (and possibly retest it).

Another way to trade this is to buy 1/2 position here, and then add to it on a breakout.
–joe

Shoeless
Shoeless
December 23, 2009 3:19 pm

If you are interested in a gold letter Tom O’Brian TFNN.com is a big hit. Been following Tom since’90. Has show 4-6PM EST on his site. He is a techie:volumes .fib numbers. retracement based investing.He believes gold retracing to 850.+/-

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oldfatfella
Irregular
December 11, 2013 1:18 pm
Reply to  Shoeless

$850 is in the same range that Harry Dent has gold landing at in 2014/1015.

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Alan Harris
Guest
Alan Harris
December 11, 2013 1:29 pm
Reply to  oldfatfella

Unless the crash comes……Then you can add a zero. Insurance is always a good idea in retrospect

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@SnoopyJC
Guest
December 23, 2009 3:20 pm

LUKOY has a Gartley pattern – target 82 in mid-Feb – http://chart.ly/p8eg32

I just bought some!!
–joe

Jim
Jim
December 23, 2009 5:02 pm

I’ve been watching the Weiss emails for a long time (all doom and gloom while everything is up 100%). Never bought anything from them until a month ago when they offered a couple of picks for $29. I didn’t buy the stocks or even follow them much after but ever since then I’ve been completely bombarded (email and snail mail) with offers for the lifetime membership.
Now their emails get sent to my junk box and I’m going to request a refund.

Brian Westwood
Guest
Brian Westwood
December 23, 2009 7:08 pm

I disagree, I have made a lot of money with Larry Edelsons picks and Sean Brodericks as well, the Weiss guys are very thorough before the recco a stock. As to Jinshan, the Prez was in Toronto a couple of weeks ago for meetings and I can tell you a lot of fund money has been committed since. I expect it will be a big winner. A recent pick by Broderick was XRA take a look at its performance.

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stupid tom
Member
stupid tom
December 23, 2009 7:48 pm

I am flustered about Jinshan. I was watching it in september,I ‘knew’ it was waiting to take off. I bought it a bit ‘too early'(at 1.34) and watched the shares lose me a few hundred dollars over a month, and I said thats enough and I sold my 8 thousand shares (at 1.30) losing about 800 bucks.
TWO WEEKS LATER….Jinshan blasted off without me. Exactly as I predicted.
Now,I’m hoping to buy at the 2.50 area.

I like Ivanhoe as well. and STO and LUKOY

TIMING TIMING TIMING. IT WILL KILL ME BEFORE TOO LONG.

REALLY STUPID TOM
Member
REALLY STUPID TOM
December 23, 2009 7:53 pm

and now, whats Worse….Ive been tricked here by Gumshoes sneeky advertising thing….. that little box at the bottom of these forum posts…see it !!!?! it means I’m going to get spammed by investors capital daily until I fill out the unsubscribe thing when they spam me.

Gumshoe,I’m disappointed with you for this.

john sloan
Guest
December 23, 2009 8:01 pm

HI Travis – Have a great holiday. Your letters are super.
1 – I am retired Prof of Russian history – been to Russia many times – see my web site – I would not INVEST in anything having to do with Russia.
2 – been to China also – Am constantly looking for more investments there.
3 – Have subscribed to Safe Money for years and think Weiss has been right on – but only underestimating the lengths the USG would go to trying to preserve the ‘welfare state’ by massive subsidy. But Safe money is wrong in touting double short ETF.
4 – Subscribed to Asia letter recently – Quite a few good ideas – some same as Hsu. Best ones not sold on US exchanges – like Indonesia and HK.
5 – For some time SM has recommended Lihir Gold as well as GLD. Asia letter lists Sino Gold
6 – The ‘lifetime’ membership is way to expensive for me. But then at age 76 I don’t buy ANY life memberships.
best wishes
john

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Myron Martin
Guest
Myron Martin
December 23, 2009 11:38 pm

Have owned Jinshan for several years, took some profits a few times, generally made out well and expect it to blossom soon. Also own Silvercorp and owned Sino gold now bought out by Eldorado which I also own as well as recently buying Ivanhoe.

Have subscribed to several Weiss publications over the years and made out well with picks from Edelson, Broderick and I enjoy Uncommon Wisdom.

Weiss himself seems super conservative and usually is EARLY in his timing as others have noted. I read him mostly for long term perspective but rarely ACT on his recommendations unless I see clear confirmation from other trusted sources.

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Larry Lewis
Guest
Larry Lewis
December 24, 2009 1:16 am

After the long run up with gold and silver, it needs a break and will go down for approx 4 months. It’s that cycle thing. The next 4 months will be the right time to be buying at depressed prices for many. But there are always those special ones that will shine no matter what the market says.

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norman adler
norman adler
December 24, 2009 2:38 am

see what you can do with this tease:
The Most Exciting
Gold Discovery
In The Past 50 Years

Dear Reader:

I realize I’m pulling you away from your normal letter today.

But in all honesty, this matter simply can’t wait.

And for a select few of you, what you’re about to read could, quite literally, triple your money in the next two to three weeks.

In fact, it’s so juicy that I’m “breaking an unspoken rule of the business.”

The moment I’m done writing this urgent letter, I’m calling my broker, too, and ordering him to scoop up as many shares as possible.

(I’ll also share with you to see every other stock in my personal portfolio – and invite you to invest right along with me – in just one moment.)

That being said, the information I’m about to share with you is highly sensitive, both in time and content. Because this is only meant for an elite group, I’m asking as a professional courtesy that you keep the following pages strictly confidential.

Let me explain…

You see, I just got back from what could be – and scores of geologists agree 100% – the greatest gold exploration discovery in the past 50 years.

It’s located only a few miles outside Timmins, Ontario.

For those of you who don’t know, Timmins sits right in the heart of one of the greatest gold belts in the entire world, the famous Abitibi Greenstone Belt.
………truncated………

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Alan Harris
Guest
Alan Harris
December 9, 2013 5:30 pm
Reply to  norman adler

Give me a beak………GS is for those who have been stung by the crapsters. Peddle your junk elsewhere.

Norm
Norm
December 24, 2009 3:22 am

As for advisors, Doody is quite good-aims with a rifle, shoots with a cannon. I’ve found value with others also-Matt Bialdali of Stansberry,Doug Casey’s Int’l Speculator.Larry Edelson, Greg McCoach. In fact, it was the latter that turned me onto Jinshan many years ago. Note that it will soon be renamed China Gold International Resources.
I think Jinshan is now an excellent speculation, not only for its recent prowess in production, but for what may be a sleeper issue. The fact that it is partly owned by the Chinese Gov’t and that they have put “International” into the name suggests that the gov’t intends to use them as a vehicle for foreign expansion, possibly as part of a long range plan of becoming a dominant factor in the gold market. They have the bilabucks with which to do it.

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Alan Harris
December 29, 2009 11:40 am

Gold is the barrometer of $ confidence. Recently the $ strengthened a bit, so gold slipped a bit. Ive always considered gold to be a fairly useless substance. Heaven knows how its maintained its ‘value’. The point being that ‘IF’ the fed is seen to have done enough to underpin confidence into the future….gold will gradually head south. But ‘IF’ the feds plan are ever doubted, infinity and beyond! Its all about confidence……so tell me punk, do you feel lucky?

But silver !!! Now that’s quite a different metal. It has use and value so will constantly be in demand and its historic relative value against gold is way down. N or S silver offers security and less volotility.

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Jim McLeod
Member
Jim McLeod
January 1, 2010 9:16 am

The worst thing I did was subscribe to Weiss’s Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio. The best thing I did was not pay attention to the recommendations. I have done much better with Porter Stansberry’s stable of writers. Matt Badiali has provided a half doz. 50-100% winners in the past year. Weiss is late to the party. I made 100 % on JINFF and took my profits.

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Wenli
Guest
Wenli
January 7, 2010 12:37 pm

I think Jinshan started to develop a long-term cup with a handle chart formation. If this is the case, what price level would be right to buy them? Anybody who knows?

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