Rare Opportunity in “World’s Largest Silver Mine?”

What's being pitched by Garrett Goggin for Silver Stock Analyst?

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, January 6, 2020

Happy New Year! I’m back at Gumshoe HQ and ready for more teaser de-teasing, and the questions piling up on my doorstep today are mostly about this “world’s largest silver mine” pitch from Stansberry’s Silver Stock Analyst… so let’s dig right in.

This is the intro from the ad that I saw a bunch of times over the weekend:

“Rare Opportunity to Take a Stake in the World’s Largest Silver Mine – BEFORE the Story Goes Public

“It’s the biggest silver opportunity in 50 years. A tiny, unknown, and less-than $10-per-share firm (with the backing of the world’s 2 best mining investors) has discovered the biggest silver mine in history – and is about to make some people rich.”

Silver Stock Analyst was launched a while back by John Doody, whose Gold Stock Analyst and GSA Top Ten have been successful gold mining advisories for a long time. We’ve covered him many times over the years, I’m not sure the silver version of his advisory has been continuously published (it would have been really hard to sell it to new subscribers over the past several years of weak silver prices), but it theoretically does the same thing as GSA: Look for the top stocks with the best reserves and most promising economics, using a deep dive into the numbers in their geological and economic reports. Doody didn’t shoot for home runs, in my recollection, he was looking for actual producers or near-producers instead of explorers.

But this ad is a little different in that regard, the pitch comes from Garrett Goggin, who is apparently now editor of the Silver Stock Analyst service, and he does reiterate that usually he’s only interested in projects that have been “audited and studied by a third-party, reputable geological firm” … but that he’s pushing the envelope a bit on that this time around.

Here’s a bit from the ad:

“The mining world is filled with fantastic ‘stories’ and ‘promises’ of what could and might be.

“But this opportunity is different, for reasons I’ll explain in a minute. John and I, after a combined 50 years in this business, have never seen anything quite like it.

“We are not analysts prone to hype. Typically, we’re only interested in situations with proven, third-party test results, and hard data… not potential findings.

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“But sometimes, to make the biggest gains, you need to get in really early – before the rest of the world catches on. And this is exactly that type of opportunity – it’s the most extraordinary situation I’ve seen in my career.”

So I guess we’re talking about a “discovery” kind of project here, not one that has proven resources and reserves, but apparently it’s huge enough to tempt anyway.

What they’re selling is a subscription to Silver Stock Analyst, naturally, and it’s a “no refunds” deal ($497/yr “on sale” from $3,500 — you can get a credit for other Stansberry letters if you don’t like it, but no cash refund). That includes their silver stock portfolio, which they say includes the only five silver stocks you need to own (one reason why it’s tough to sustain a “silver only” investment advisory is that there are often only a couple dozen “real” silver companies trading in the market, and there aren’t many primary silver mines — silver is more often produced as a byproduct at big copper and gold mines).

But anyway, assuming you don’t want to pony up $497 for something you aren’t sure about, let’s check into it and see what the actual stock is… then you can think it over for yourself and try to get a balanced look at the risks before you make a binding decision about a newsletter subscription. Ready?

OK, here’s how they describe it on the order form:

“In this report, you’ll learn the name, ticker symbol, and everything else you need to know regarding the company that’s trading for less than $10 a share, and is currently in possession of what is soon likely to prove to be the world’s largest silver mine.”

And then in the body of the “presentation” we get a few more clues:

“The silver mine we are talking about is so big, it could produce $510 million worth of silver per year, even at today’s low prices….

“… this project has attracted the attention (and hard cash) of two of the best mining investors in the world.

“The first guy made investors in Tahoe Resources gains of 55% overnight from an acquisition.

“In 2018 alone, his company produced $446 million worth of silver and $268 million worth of gold. After taking his own company public, he’s made investors gains of more than 250%…

“The other investor amassed millions of dollars for his company by acquiring several small mines over the years. He got his big break in 2002, when he was integral in discovering a mine which would go on to be sold for $216 million just six years later.”

OK, so those are some good details we can check. What else can we feed to the Thinkolator?

Apparently there’s a “Mr. X” involved… this is what we learn about him:

“He’s a special consultant who only gets involved in the biggest and best opportunities in the industry.

“Recently, he’s found at least 250 million ounces of silver in the Alamos Mining District….”

And apparently this story is really brand new… according to Goggin:

“… right now, only a small group of industry insiders even know this silver mine exists. And there are only three analysts who cover it.

“I’m one of them!”

And they’re due to report “official third-party test results” in the first quarter, so “word could leak anytime”.

Anything else? Well, he says this is one of only two “pure silver mines” that contain no other metal (though if it hasn’t actually even gotten its first results verified by a third party, you can be pretty sure it’s still a “project,” not a “mine.”)

But he also says the only other “pure” silver mine was San Bartolomé, discovered in Bolivia in 1545, so these are rare and, to Goggin, exciting.

With many of the primary silver mines and largest silver producers getting a bit old, he thinks that there will be a huge amount of attention for a big new silver discovery… more from the ad:

“There are very few major silver mines in the world. And very few have been discovered in recent years.

“That’s why when the story of this new mine goes public, it’s going to get A LOT of attention… and is going to attract A LOT of money.”

OK, so that’s enough… what’s our secret silver stock? Thinkolator sez this is New Pacific Metals Corp (NUAG on the Venture in Toronto, NUPMF OTC in the US), which was just under US$5 on Friday and is bumping up today thanks to this new attention.

And yes, it is a “discovery” stage mining stock, but it’s not exactly tiny — they have a market cap of about $750 million and have been drilling to expand and define their Silver Sand project in Bolivia for about two years. So it’s not brand new or unknown, but we’ll stipulate that it hasn’t gotten a lot of attention from the investing press.

How else does it match? Well, they are indeed planning to release their 43-101 Resource Report in the first quarter of this year. And the company has actually confirmed that GSA-Silver, which is apparently the service that became Silver Stock Analyst, added them to a model portfolio back in September (the company was responding to heavy new trading action in the stock, which rose about 50% at the time).

The company has reported lots of drilling results this year, much of which sounds quite impressive, and those results have helped to support the share price, so there sure looks to be a lot of silver there… and it is an old “artisanal mining district” with lots of other targets, so they believe that Silver Sand has “district potential” and could become a massive project.

How else does it match? There are several major investors on board, including Silvercorp Metals (SVM owns 29%) and its CEO Dr. Rui Feng (owns 7%, is also CEO of New Pacific), and Pan American Silver (PAAS, 17%). And they did bring on that “Mr. X” as an advisor, that’s Dr. Peter Megaw, co-founder of MAG Silver and an award-winning silver prospector. And yes, they do have only two “real” analysts covering the stock (plus Mr. Goggin makes three).

What will this prospective mine hold? I have no idea, but that resource statement will probably get a fair amount of attention when it comes out at some point in the next few months. That could certainly move the share price, and you can pretty much guarantee that they’ll be out raising money fairly soon for what will presumably be a large and expensive project (they don’t need to raise capital immediately, they have plenty to get through their next budgeted projects and have a cushion of about $30 million at the moment, they say, so if they raise money before the 43-101 comes out I’d be a little worried… but I imagine they’ll raise money not long after it comes out, hoping that the verification of some initial resources will raise the share price).

It’s way too soon to guess where this might go, or how long it will take to get there, but it is a high-grade silver discovery in a country with a pretty good mining infrastructure… though also, to state the obvious, a substantial amount of political risk even if the interim government, if it holds together, is likely to be more business-friendly than the old — there’s been obvious turmoil in the wake of Evo Morales’ departure/coup, with diplomatic disputes and an interim government that will face elections probably in May, and there’s meaningful risk of anti-mining backlash… which makes betting on a long-term project pretty nerve-wracking.

I’m not particularly interested in speculating on a early silver discovery like this, and I would assume that, like most mineral discoveries, it will probably take a decade or more before they actually start producing silver (assuming they make it that far), with plenty of ups and downs along the way as they raise money to do the work and as silver moves up or down… but it does look like a big one, and it could also, thanks in part to the fact that insiders control more than 50% of the company, move pretty quickly if they wish (including on any possible partnerships or a sale if they don’t want to build a mine themselves). They do have an investor presentation up on their website that provides some background, so that’s a good place to begin your research if you’re interested. If you want a somewhat more colorful and skeptical take, you can always check out Mark at IKN’s response to the initial Doody reco.

I’ll leave it to you to make your own call here — excited about a big potential mine in an old Bolivian mining district? Think they scooped up a bargain and it will be worth billions, or has it already run too far on this Stansberry attention over the past four months? Have other favorites in the silver space that you think are better? Let us know with a comment below.



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Travis Johnson, Stock GumshoechrizcringleDanny Mmellsoniltrus Recent comment authors

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Karen Boughan
Guest
Karen Boughan

Damn. I just paid $497.00 for that info. Guess I should have checked my emails first!
I’m in on the five picks.

jeffstupar
Member
👍43
jeffstupar

Gumshoe is a lot cheaper and an honest evaluation of all the teasers sent out. I learned a long time ago myself.

k_4kram
Member
👍12
k_4kram

It is called economical, not cheaper…

zedsamcat
Member
👍19

What are they?

james
Guest
james

FYI, I have had that silver letter for almost a year. The five picks have been well worth the price (I would not have selected any of them), and have made the fee many times over. He does rotate into new selections.

Ed Gantz
Guest
Ed Gantz

A couple Royalty/Streamers, a few Gold and Silver Producers, half dozen Developers and a couple Project Generators. Was the diversification a good projection and many in each category had price appreciation?

Ed Gantz
Guest
Ed Gantz

What are the five picks you referenced?

David Grumbling
Guest
David Grumbling

Travis, you are amazing! I read the teaser yesterday, saw the $495.00, and deleted it. And here you are, for free! This happens so often. Thank you again. David

Bob
Guest
Bob

SVM has taken a nice bounce. What of NUAG has pushed up SVM?

FlowerPower
Irregular
👍5
FlowerPower

Great and fast job!
I did my own small research yesterday, but never came this far as you did. Thanks!

rmackintosh
Member
👍45
rmackintosh

I bought NUPMF in June at $1.64; it jumped to 3.60 on no news and I sold 1/3 of my position; still holding on at current price of 5.31 but not sure it is attractive to buy more at over 3x what I paid. Cannot recall what advisory service recommended it.

krinkle
Member
👍29
krinkle

Bolinger bAND IS EXTREMELY TIGHT ON A COUPLE OF TIME FRAMES toDAY, ON nupmf
(Sorry, I type with 1 finger…must look at keypoard.)

Don Cook
Guest
Don Cook

Doody has been fairly conservative in the past (although he is now with Stansberry). He has been good with his recommendations (at least with metals going up his reco,s do very well.) He believes some production from surface mining may start within 2 years. That may be optimistic, but I will sell some soon as I bought early, then hold the rest and hope he is accurate.

marvinzilenga
Irregular
👍34
marvinzilenga

Now that Doody is part of Stansberry all the rules have changed. It’s about selling memberships throughout the Agora umberella.

Buck
Guest
Buck

I recently sold the largest owner of this development company (SVM) after a nice run (+85%) . Thanks to Travis for another balanced review. It’s a bit suspicious that the author of the newsletter didn’t just recommend the safer route (own the real large owner(s) mining companies). But these teaser pumps aren’t usually designed to help you make the best decision — Just the desired decision. I will say that I do think sliver is sitting fairly close to the world’s average All In Sustaining costs plus capital costs here at $18.50/troy ounce, so I also think there is room… Read More »

Eyebetheredreckly
Guest
Eyebetheredreckly

This was publicised in Golden Opportunities a few months back and I bought a few at $2.10. It is now trading at over$5, so very happy so far. The identification of New Pacific is spot on – the diagram showing the ore body profile and the geological descriptions in the Goggin promo are both exactly as in the New Pacific investor presentation. The case for this stock presented by Goggin is very convincing – once you get past the rather “wooden” speaking style of Goggin himself. Also long other silver developers; Silvercrest, Prophecy, and Aftermath in anticipation of the expected… Read More »

David
Guest
David

Great news. I am just looking into Metallaroyalty atreaming. Agnico gold, endeavor and pan american. The billionaires. Share prices of each all up past 6 months. Charting is high as 50% the past two months alone. Haven’t seen much but am liking it just swell.

bunion132
Irregular
👍131

Travis, thank you for pointing out that ” …the company is also many years and many fundraisings from actually building a mine”. One of the most valuable lessons I’ve learned from being a Gumshoer is to be very cautious about jumping into stocks under $10 soon after being teased, even more so in this case where the mine has not even been built yet! Note that the Thinkolator has become quite powerful in stock sleuthing, enough to”move the needle”. Just look at the number of people on this site who’ve discovered Gumshoe by accident, likely because the stock being researched… Read More »

seussdr13
Member
👍13
seussdr13

Thanks Travis. A different aspect take here. I perceive too much Chinese control influence here. Years ago I bought SVM with high hopes. Its one major project was a presented as a high grade, multi PMs in China. SVM claimed its byproduct PMs would pay for mining the silver at no cost. The stock did make an initial multi 100% run up, and I was lousy at selling for a profit. Then China allowed (backed?) a short seller investor to slam SVM, without good reason, and that killed the project momentum and stock price. From separate sources I learned: 1)… Read More »

Paul Bormann
Guest
Paul Bormann

I took a chance and made a small buy of New Pacific back in June at $1.50 based on other recommendations I read. Now that I’m up 350% I, of course, wish I had bought more, but I have also lost plenty of $ on small start-up like these that went nowhere but down so I count my blessings when one does work out. like NUPMF. Now I just have to decide when to take profits so I don’t give a lot of it back, which I have also done in the past. But I’ll definitely wait until they post… Read More »

Steve - The Options Coach
Guest
Steve - The Options Coach

Thanks Travis! You’re saving a lot of people a ton of money. Including me!

cabaoke
Irregular
👍66
cabaoke

hello Steve. I noticed your title and was wondering if you could suggest a entry level explanation of option trading principals? Perhaps inappropriate for this honest open discussion platform and if so, I apologize, but would love an entry point to derivatives.

JayBee1
Guest
JayBee1

Beware of the “Stansberry Spike.” They hype stuff, and it skyrockets. Then, a few months later, it is back to the pre-hype price.

John Otradovec
Guest
John Otradovec

BEWARE OF Porter Stansberry. He’s been fined by the SEC and he’s ANGRY’

mellson
Member
👍-1
mellson

Not again I hope!

lindacampbell
Member
👍44
lindacampbell

Say Jay,
I’ve been involved with Stansberry for a decade or more and can’t recall experiencing any spikes and flights. I have observed a few mistakes as well as early takes now and then. Overall, I have a favorable opinion of most of their analysts.

dccali
Guest
dccali

I bought NUPMF shares yesterday. Today it’s down. Did I buy too late?

warderwill
Member
👍15
warderwill

I overpaid too but only 50 shares. Thinking to average more. The resource report in March or April is touted optimistically. I believe the near term target is $7 and the 3 year target is $20. If it all works out, it doesnt sound like instant gratification. Could be buy outs along the way though. If it comes down to very low then I will buy more, but I also worry the most about Bolivia politics, expected to do a deal in 2020 that’s already been postponed. Nothing is a sure thing.

William Carlson
Guest

Hope I didn’t miss you already revealing the stock John Engel (from Stansberry Research) claims to be “The No 1 AI Stock to Buy Now”. If I did, please mention it in a new report. If not, I would like to see a new presentation on what this mystery stock is.

As always, thanks for your insightful knowledge. Love hearing from Doc Gumshoe as well.

Michelle I
Guest
Michelle I

I can attest to Travis getting large enough to be accidentally tripped over on the Internet since that’s how I found stock gumshoe I was researching a couple of Pay stock newsletters myself. I think the one that led me to Travis was the company that owns match. I think that a number of these letters and or websites do sort of lead to a pump and dump effect. However I think Travis offers good advice and really researches these items before he posts them I went back through the history reading articles and researching what happened to stock prices… Read More »

iltrus
Member
👍83

Hello Travis, where are you? Holiday season is over and the markets are on fire and we miss your wise comments. I just hope all is well at your end. Best wishes,

xcernfsi
Member
👍29
xcernfsi

Travis sent an email out to subscribers after you posted here, he’s been laid up with the flu, hopes to return early next week.

iltrus
Member
👍83

Thank you for the information 🙂
Get well soon Travis <3

Danny M
Guest
Danny M

Interesting. I thought potentially you were talking about prophecy that along with its vanadium business is poised to release drill results in February and received a $5 million dollar investment from Canadian billionaire Eric Sprott to finance their Bolivian silver project . I echo the comments below , Travis and the stock gumshoe provide honest analysis and your help is greatly appreciated . I would be interested in knowing if you have looked at prophecy lately .

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