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Answers: “The Most Disruptive Biotech Discovery of 2015-Confirmed Live: October 19th, 5:15 pm”

What's Dave Lashmet's tease about the "Abscopal Effect" and Proton Beam Therapy for Stansberry Venture

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, October 19, 2015

That’s a mysterious headline, right?

The pitch we’re looking at today is from Dave Lashmet at Stansberry, who’s selling his Stansberry Venture newsletter for $5,000 — and the carrot he’s dangling to get you to subscribe is this “most disruptive biotech discovery” … which, it turns out, is a form of radiation therapy that, in combination with cancer immunotherapy, has perhaps some potential for “abscopal” results.

Here’s part of the intro to the long ad letter, to give you a sense of what they’re teasing:

“At a behind-closed-doors industry meeting, the results of an incredible new discovery will be announced…

“Our team of analysts will be in the room to confirm this announcement live – and in just a few days, a tiny, early-stage company we’ve been following could make its investors a small fortune….

“Shortly after 5:15pm on Monday, October 19th, we’re doing something we have never done before.

“In conference room 005, at a convention center in the southwestern U.S., a group of biotech researchers will make a huge and important announcement…

“We’ll be in the room, in person – and if positive results are confirmed, as we expect – we’ll send out a full update to members of our e-mail list.

“By the next day, investors could be up as much as 100% or more.”

Sounds mysterious, right? So which conference is this, what mysterious presentation is being made? How will this make us a “small fortune?”

The ad goes on for quite a while, but the basic gist is that Lashmet is following the advancement of radiation therapy, particularly the more advanced and specialized (and expensive) proton therapy, and that he’s sifting through the clinical trials now underway or being presented (including at this mysterious conference, today) because he thinks there’s a developing “abscopal” effect when radiation therapy is combined with immunotherapies.

The abscopal effect is something that folks don’t seem to understand very well yet, and from what I can tell it’s extremely rare, but it basically refers to physically targeted cancer therapy whose impact is spread throughout the body, far beyond the area targeted. In most cases, from what I can tell, this has been seen when local radiation treatment of a tumor has also had a profoundly positive impact on metastasized cancer — so even after a cancer has spread, treating it with radiation at a single point had a positive impact in fighting the tumors elsewhere in the body.

Here’s a little sampling of Lashmet’s description:

“The small company I want to tell you about today is one of the leaders in the field of proton beam therapy.

“And let me reiterate: This technology is already approved by the U.S. FDA. It’s already being used in dozens of treatment centers around the world.

“What’s such a huge deal here is that there’s been a new development which will make this therapy much more attractive to cancer patients…

“And when this information goes public, early investors are going to make extraordinary gains, in a very short time….

“The main component of a proton beam machine is the cyclotron – a huge “wheel” that accelerates proton particles, which can then be aimed directly at a tumor.

“The advantage of proton treatment is that the doctor can precisely control where the proton releases the bulk of its cancer-fighting energy….

“Better yet, when the proton beam hits its target, it does not go through it like x-rays. It stops right at the tumor. So the beams miss your brain. And your heart. And your bladder. The organs that keep you alive.”

You may have heard of proton beam therapy, it’s been around for decades and has been slowly growing as new centers are opened in the US and around the world. It has proven utility for some specialized cancers and patients, particularly for pediatric head and neck cancers, and is being widely used (and promoted, in some cases) for cancers where it is not necessarily the most effective (or cost-effective) treatment (like early stage prostate cancer, for example).

Insurers seem to be conflicted from what quick reading I’ve done this morning, because they don’t want to get in the habit of funding expensive proton therapy for diseases that can be treated just as well (or better, some say) for a lot less money, but that’s true of insurance companies in the face of almost every advance — they want proof, and want to be able to compare outcomes and costs, and proton therapy is still pretty tiny when it comes to the global cancer treatment marketplace. The companies and hospitals who are building and operating proton therapy centers, on the other hand, would like to have as many patients as possible because volume creates financial viability — they don’t want to spend millions on a radiation facility that only treats a few rare cancers a month, they want to treat the thousands of patients who have much more common cancers.

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And, frankly, just about every company with a minimally invasive or targeted or high-tech approach wants to target prostate cancer — because it’s a huge market, because dudes don’t like having surgery down there where a slip by the surgeon means you’re wearing diapers, and because dudes like to be using the newest and coolest technology. Having someone sharpen up a scalpel is a lot less appealing than having someone wheel you into a machine that looks like it would fit in perfectly in the sick bay aboard the USS Enterprise (the Star Trek one, not the aircraft carrier). Every medical device executive has read the Intuitive Surgical case studies and knows that if you can market to men that there’s a way to get rid of their prostate cancer with less risk, the line will form quickly and patients will demand that their hospitals buy whatever the awesome new machine is.

That’s a little bit facetious… but it does apply here: Proton beam radiation centers have to get large volumes of patients, and prostate cancer is the favored market of almost all of them (except, perhaps, for the Mayo Clinic — who says they’re targeting head and neck cancers with their proton beam center and might also just go after advanced prostate cancer)

But that’s not really what Lashmet is talking about, I’ve gotten off track again. He is touting a proton beam company, and he does think that the results of this conference he’s attending might provide evidence of the abscopal effect in radiation patients, which could help to create a substantially larger market for radiation therapy in general. If a combination of immunotherapy and targeted radiation can create this systemic “abscopal” response to beat down cancer throughout the body, then that obviously means that radiation would be more appealing for more cancer patients… there are lots of metastasized cancers, or, on the other end, easily operable cancers, where radiation would today be considered either pointless or unnecessary… but if radiation does more than just kill localized cancer cells in hard-to-reach places, well, the appeal (and the market) grows.

Here’s Lashmet’s description of that “abscopal effect”:

“… amazing things can happen when radiation and immunotherapy drugs are used together…

“Put simply, your awakened immune system can destroy OTHER cancer in your body when it destroys just one irradiated tumor.

“This is called the ‘abscopal effect.’

“It’s historically an INCREDIBLY rare anomaly.

“In fact, there’s only about 23 case reports and 1 study that reference the abscopal effect in a database of more than 5,000 different medical journals…

“And the discovery that it can actually be ‘triggered’ inside your body by combining immunotherapy and radiation is a revolution in the fight against cancer….

“Again, cases like this one are incredibly rare….

“In May 2014, an Italian study was published that changed everything.

“This study showed that this rare, life-saving anomaly could become far more common.

“The study looked at 21 skin cancer patients who had been treated with Bristol-Myers’ immunotherapy treatment… but whose cancer had started progressing again. So these patients received radiation….

“More than HALF of these patients showed an abscopal effect.

“… no fewer than a dozen studies to confirm the work of the Italian study have been started…

“And at the upcoming biotech conference, seven different confirmatory trials will present results… with the first two at 5:15pm on Monday, October 19th.”

Ah, so there you have it — the logic of the ad is largely, it seems to me, that Lashmet is hoping that the results of these studies will confirm (or quantify) some sort of abscopal effect, and that this will drive greater adoption of targeted radiation in cancer treatment, and that this will naturally lead to more building of proton beam therapy centers to deliver this more advanced and super-targeted form of radiation therapy.

In his words:

“Proton beam therapy is about to get much, much more interesting… and this news could send the shares of my favorite company in this space absolutely soaring.

“The small, venture-level company I’m going to tell you about in a minute – a company that has made more than HALF of all the proton treatment rooms in operation in the world today – could make its investors a small fortune as this market continues its steady growth.

“But when you add in the abscopal effect trial results to be revealed at the conference on October 19th…

“This investment story gets a lot more interesting.”

Those of you who’ve been roaming the halls of Gumshoe University for any length of time know that I’m not going to be able to read those clinical trial results or interpret the abscopal effect, and that I’m not going to be an expert on the global proton beam therapy industry after reading up on it for an hour or two after reading this ad… but I can sift through the details and tell you the name of the company Lashmet is hinting about, and give you a little bit of a head start on doing your own research.

So… do we get a few more clues about this company that I can feed into the Mighty, Mighty Thinkolator as we sift the hyperbole in search of some answers? We do indeed…

“For starters, this company, despite its small size and its foreign listing, is the #1 proton beam company in the world, with over 50% of the market.

“It’s also the largest patent holder of its kind in both the U.S. and Europe. This puts a moat around their business… because competitors can’t copy the technology that made this company #1 in the first place.

“The company is primarily a brain-trust, meaning that most of its staff are technicians and researchers. It partners with two of the biggest technology firms in the world to manufacture their proton beam machines – one in Europe, and one in Asia, whose names you would surely recognize….

“It is very profitable. In fact, it just reported stellar half-year results – with sales up over 20%, and net profit up over 90%.

“And what’s practically unheard of for a company like this: They just paid out a dividend…

“And with the growth we’re about to see in this industry, it’s highly likely that will continue in the future.

“So even if evidence of the abscopal effect isn’t confirmed on October 19th, this small company still has HUGE growth catalysts.

“It’s very early in this growing biotechnology trend… and proton beam therapy is only going to get bigger and better from here.”

Enough? Yes, we can get to your answer now: Dave Lashmet is teasing us about Ion Beam Applications, which usually refers to itself now as IBA. This is a decent-sized company that specializes in radiation generally, and more specifically on the sale and service of proton beam treatment rooms — though they also have substantial businesses in radiation dosimetry (analyzing and testing radiation absorption), and in pharmaceutical and industrial cyclotrons and other radiation equipment. They are headquartered in Belgium and trade primarily on the Euronext at IBAB, where the stock closed earlier today at 29.73 (in euros) — there is an OTC ticker in the US, which is quite illiquid but does trade sometimes, so if you’re not ever worried about selling in a hurry (selling is when you really need liquidity) you can trade that at IOBCF if you’re interested.

If you’d like some confirmation, other than the fact that IBA matches the clues perfectly, you might note that IOBCF, the OTC ticker in the US, usually trades about 800 shares a day… and today, after Lashmet’s ad ran all weekend, it traded more than 25,000 shares (volume in Brussels was about 75,000 shares, which is slightly above the normal 65,000). The pricing was reasonably fair in the US, the last trade I saw was $33.94, which is pretty close to the “fair” price of $33.66 as of the European close a few hours ago — so people are buying IOBCF at a decent price, within 1% of the “real” price set in Brussels trading, but do note that if Lashmet tells all those folks to sell right away there won’t be any US buyers to take the shares off their hands so they’ll probably have to sell at a substantial discount to whatever the “fair” price is at that time on the home exchange in Belgium. Liquidity ain’t so important for buying, but it’s critical for selling — so be careful, it’s always better to trade on a stock’s home exchange if you can (I’m not buying this one personally, but if I were I’d use my Interactive Brokers account and buy in Brussels — other brokers will also often allow for trading on the Euronext if they provide international trading access, which many of the big ones do).

This is roughly a billion-dollar company, their big revenue driver is sales of proton beam equipment — and they have sold roughly half of the currently existing proton beam “rooms” now operating. Their big picture argument is that with continued equipment advances and more availability, buttressed by clinical trials that support use of proton beam therapy, they think proton beam can move from being 1% of the radiation oncology business to a 20% market share.

Part of that is building out new rooms, and they think the US can go from 53 installed proton beam treatment rooms to a potential of 339 rooms… and that the rest of the world is similarly undersupplied, with only about 5% of the possible market (presumably that means large cancer centers) having these treatment facilities.

This is a business that’s probably very lumpy, since an individual “room” is a big purchase and many of them are built in suites of four or five — IBA is apparently getting more of the low-end business, the single rooms and the facilities with two or three rooms, and their largest competitor Varian (which is a more diversified radiation and medical equipment company, about 10X as large as IBA) is getting more of the orders for larger treatment suites this year. Overall, IBA says they have sold 52% of the radiation centers, and 43% of the rooms in the existing global installed base. There are also a half dozen competitors, including some large companies like Melco and Hitachi, but none of them are apparently (according to IBA’s presentations, at least) keeping up with sales at Varian and IBA right now.

What about the actual prospects? Here’s more from the ad:

“If we’re right about our predictions – that we’ll see positive results on the abscopal effect from the combination of immunotherapy and radiation treatment – this small stock could start to soar the next morning… and investors could be up by double – or possibly even triple-digits within a few days.

“So if the abscopal effect is proven possible, candidates for this kind of combo therapy will probably line up for treatment, skyrocketing hospital demand for proton treatment rooms…

“And the tiny company I’m targeting happens to be the industry leader in equipping hospitals. So it should skyrocket too.”

This I have a little trouble with. Not that it might grow — it very well might — but that these early studies trying to identify the abscopal effect and measure it will somehow lead to the stock doubling “within a few days” just because they develop proton beam treatment facilities. It may be possible, I suppose, but I don’t think we should expect those conference presentations to cause that kind of wild gyration in any company’s stock in short order. This strikes me as a “slow build” of information about immunotherapy and radiation therapy.

Though yes, it’s also true that the company itself is doing pretty well even without any huge promise from the abscopal effect. There are quite a few new proton beam centers being built, they’ve got a good backlog of orders, and their new machine (the Proteus One) seems to be generating some attention — that’s a single-room device with a smaller cyclotron, as opposed to the larger centers that have a big cyclotron that feeds several treatment rooms.

They have also been posting revenue and earnings growth that look very appealing, though the 90% earnings growth cited in the ad was due, in large part, to the weak Euro and the offloading of one of their other businesses (they are based in Europe, but a lot of their sales are to the US and Asia). You can see their latest half-year earnings presentation here if you’d like to start to get an understanding of their business… or the short version here if you’d like just the numbers.

Guidance was increased at the half year mark from revenue growth of “at least 10%” to now 15-20%, so they must be fairly confident about continuing demand and the current state of the business. They’re partnered with Philips and Toshiba, so although they’re fairly small they should be able to address the global market pretty well.

It looks to me like they’re on pace for about 30 million euros in profit on the year, maybe a bit more (it was 24 million last year), so that would mean the stock is trading at a current year PE ratio in the 25-30 neighborhood. Not too bad for a company with a couple years of backlog and some good growth this year, but not necessarily a “double in a week” kind of valuation — particularly not when there is competition, if demand for proton beam therapy rooms jumps up dramatically there are a half dozen or so companies who could meet that demand… which means IBA wouldn’t have unfettered pricing power.

And yes, they did pay a small dividend for the first half of the year… and are targeting a dividend payout of about 30% of earnings going forward, so dividends should continue.

If you’d like to read up on the conference presentations being teased, It seems almost certain that the conference Lashmet and his colleagues are attending is ASTRO 2015 in San Antonio, which is indeed underway right now. I don’t know which of the presentations are most interesting to him, but since that “abscopal effect” is a key area of interest to the companies who make and sell radiation equipment and the scholars who study radiation oncology, it’s no surprise that there are several presentations whose titles or descriptions specifically include that phrase — though from what I can tell, it looks like they all had abstracts published in advance so I don’t know that there’s any “surprise” moment on the horizon in any of these talks. Most of the time when I attend a conference the attendees are half asleep by the last sessions of the late afternoon, so perhaps Dave Lashmet and his colleagues, if they can fight the soporific effect of the convention center ballroom, will be the only ones to notice any big news that might happen.

I suspect that the first conference session Lashmet is excited about is part of the short series of talks given in this session: CNS IV- Spinal SBRT: Melanoma of Brain and Ocular Structures — from my scan of the abstracts there are a few that are looking for that connection between radiation therapy and enhanced immune response — most of the theory of this effect seems to be working around the idea that the radiation somehow spurs a stronger tumor specific antigen response, in combination with Yervoy and/or Opdivo. Beyond that, I’m going to look dumber and dumber the more I say about this topic… but I didn’t get the sense from the abstracts that these are breakthrough results being announced.

Most of the testimonials in Lashmet’s ad about patients who’ve had this treatment are taken from the “Brotherhood of the Balloon” website — a community of prostate cancer patients who’ve had proton therapy and seem quite evangelical about it.

And if you want to counter that with some more sober talk about the status of proton beam therapy in the US, there’s an interesting story here about the Hampton University proton beam center that’s largely been a flop so far, and a more general (and also skeptical) piece from Modern Healthcare last year about the resurgence in proton beam centers.

So… I’ve gone about as far as I can in explaining what this company is — and some of it may be wrong. But I’m quite sure that Lashmet is touting IBA as his play on proton therapy, and that he thinks it has a bright future as proton beam therapy gains wider acceptance… whether or not we get a huge boost from the findings presented at the ASTRO 2015 conference this week.

Sound like the kind of investment that interests you? Have any thoughts on proton beam therapy or cancer immunotherapy? Feel free to chime in with a comment below.

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Chuck P
Guest
Chuck P
October 19, 2015 4:48 pm

These guys are such scammers.

Eduardo
Guest
October 19, 2015 5:43 pm
Reply to  Chuck P

I am a M.D.
It has been known for years that a partial or total destruction of cell in a primary tumor will trigger an immune response on the pt. that could be light, moderate or even strong as the ones observe with a vaccine.
In some countries where they do not have institution like the FDA (Paraguay) they remove part of the tumor kill the cells them inject them via IV into the p.t with the same if not better results.

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coolriver
Member
coolriver
October 20, 2015 4:24 am
Reply to  Eduardo

Dear Eduardo,
I have cancer and I’m looking to find clinics that offer therapy based on immune system. It is not available in my country. However, I succeeded to have a live sample of my tumor taken during the surgery, and as far as I know it is still kept alive in a translational cancer lab, for the possibility to utilize such an opportunity if the cancer spreads. It has.

Could you name clinics that do the kind of therapy you described (in Paraguay or elsewhere)? Have they published results in any journals that I could get access to?

I’d really appreciate an answer.

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Chris
Chris
October 19, 2015 8:00 pm
Reply to  Chuck P

Porter S had predicted the imminent demise of G about two years ago and had promoted Boston Scientific as a great BUY! When he speaketh — head for the exits!

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betsy jenkins
Member
betsy jenkins
October 19, 2015 5:01 pm

mayo clinic in rochester mn has started using proton beam therapy to treat tumors. they will begin in the next few months in jacksonville and scottsdale big secret on big sign in clinic subway display

mfdhousing
mfdhousing
October 19, 2015 5:04 pm

Still waiting to see if Stansberry’s prediction of a catastrophic market melt down on OCT 20 2015 happens as touted in TV ads featuring the idiot Ron Paul…. only one day to go …

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Sagenot
Member
Sagenot
October 19, 2015 5:54 pm

You’re right Travis, but if China keeps losing face with devaluing their currency & falling markets all over China (ex; their metal’s exch has ruptured) then why are they going t/b another reserve currency? The IMF had better get a grip before they make a huge mistake.

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pjwa
pjwa
October 20, 2015 9:11 am
Reply to  Sagenot

The Chinese do not keep devaluing their currency, albeit it lost a bit of face. Indeed they have not devalued the currency at all, despite the screeches from the Western press.
It has been one of the strongest performing currencies in the world and certainly amongst developing economies this year. There was a clumsy manoeuvre within its daily trading band, which led to the West throwing up its arms; but if the currency traded freely, it would fall because of the capital account deficit.
Nor are markets falling all over China. The stockmarket has given up a large part of its excessive gains; but is still up significantly. The more relevant property market is not consolidated; it has though generally been firm in larger cities.
Commodities are a different issue for which many players including Chinese lacked the vision to see the likelihood of oversupply. If only China could have kept growing at 10% plus indefinitely, like where else?

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The Pirate
Member
The Pirate
October 19, 2015 8:55 pm

Well, you’re no fun. You just fall right over. 🙁

bluesharpbob
October 21, 2015 3:02 pm
Reply to  The Pirate

Firesign rules!

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Klaus Schonfeld
Klaus Schonfeld
October 21, 2015 6:45 am
Reply to  mfdhousing

mfd: what makes Ron Paul an idiot? His stand as a libertarian? When he was a politician, he was one of very few to speak honestly on issues. If you don’t agree with his stand or positions he took on issues – ok – but that surely does not make him an idiot.

dcohn
Member
October 19, 2015 5:06 pm

Thanks Travis. Great write-up.

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Dave
Member
Dave
October 19, 2015 5:40 pm

I was a Proton Beam radiation patient at M. D. Anderson Cancer Center in Houston TX. I am still monitored by M.D. Anderson and have never heard of this concept they are talking about in this tease. Either M. D. Anderson is withholding it from me or it is somewhat fantastical. I am really skeptical.

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Sagenot
Member
Sagenot
October 19, 2015 5:58 pm

Lashmet’s letter now costs $5k I hear, I remember him when he & Porter were recommending biotech stocks for $49./yr. It wasn’t that long ago either. To each his own poison.

franko1
franko1
July 3, 2016 12:56 am
Reply to  Sagenot

That is the cost of his report per year and maybe with 12 reports
I presume . They are not on new issued stocks like projects by MMP.

SoGiAm
October 19, 2015 6:14 pm

Proton Therapy Symposium – REALIZING THE PROMISE OF PROTON THERAPY. OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES.
EVENTS IBA ASTRO 2015 OCTOBER 19, 2015 SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS 06:45 PM – 11:30 PM
http://www.iba-astro2015.com/ Best2ALL!-Ben

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DrKSSMDPhD
October 19, 2015 6:54 pm

As of yet, there’s no evidence of improved outcomes when comparing proton beam irradiation with customary external beam irradiation. Thus, despite the fact that there’s no exit dose, this fact may not help the pt. function or feel better or come away with less extraneous damage. Initial studies comparing EBT with PBT for prostate cancer show no real difference in either efficacy or side effects.

Meanwhile, Stansberry’s claims about the abscopal effect are ridiculous. First, we have seen this effect before, and commented heavily on it in the biotech threads last year when we discuss ridiculous biotech play Provectus ($PVCT) and its utterly scandalous claims. Though the abscopal effect pops up time to time in medicine, it’s in no way uniquely tied to PBT or to radiation and is well known from merely injecting a single melanomatous lesion in a patient who has many. The molecular basis of the abscopal effect is unknown, and more important, whether it is clinical relevant in eventual patient outcomes is not at all known (but dubious-looking to me).

PBT has been teased in “litterature” I’ve seen come to my inbox for years. I can so no good reason to invest in it. Nothing whatsoever has changed in the field, and there’s no evidence of it “catching on” or displacing other forms of irradiation.

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SoGiAm
October 19, 2015 7:07 pm
Reply to  DrKSSMDPhD

Litterature…I luv it! Long ZKSS 🙂 Best2ALL!-Ben

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Eric Wilson
Member
Eric Wilson
October 19, 2015 11:55 pm

Do you have any thoughts on companies which employ similar technology but are listed on Mainstream American exchanges?

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advantedges
October 20, 2015 7:43 pm

VAR down 4% today, Travis. Where would you buy it? 70 or better?
Caught up in the shift out of HC & Biotech stocks…..

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johnnyb
johnnyb
October 20, 2015 12:48 am

Captain Kirk! Captain Kirk, sir. The Abscopal Ion Machine is ready to fire on your order, sir. In response Captain Kirk “says wait for the Mother Ship and because once we Ion Phase it away the rest of the fleet will crumble. Ready the gun”
I know this is a serious investment sight – the Devil made me do it!

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BJI
Member
BJI
October 20, 2015 5:28 am

Didn’t Weight Watcher stock double today because Opra endorsed it?

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BJI
Member
BJI
October 20, 2015 5:30 am
Reply to  BJI

OOPS! Opra endorsed the Weight Watcher program NOT the stock!

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DaveologicalSociety
DaveologicalSociety
October 20, 2015 7:38 am

I think I’ll take a weight, and see on this one…….

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frankw17
October 20, 2015 8:22 pm

Travis, she also was elected to the BOD and will
be a spokesperson for the company. Sort of reminds
me of Kirstie Alley who, like Oprah, yoyo’s up and down
relative to her weight. I hope the program helps her,
otherwise she won’t be much of a “spokesperson”
for WTW.
Regards,
Frank

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deehud
deehud
October 21, 2015 1:30 pm

I would say this is the height of INSIDER TRADING> Wonder if Oprah will be prosecuted????????????????????????????????

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Cynic
Guest
Cynic
October 23, 2015 5:28 am
Reply to  deehud

Not likely. She’s BFFs with B.O., and so long as he’s got the Justice Dept. on his payroll, none of his best buds will be prosecuted, regardless of how egregious their crimes.

Bart
Guest
Bart
October 20, 2015 8:46 am

There’s a tiny stock on Amex that is developing Proton Beam Centers in the US: American Shared Hospital Services (ticker: AMS)
Their main income comes from Gamma Knife systems currently.
They provide the Mevion Medical Proton beam system. Mevion unfortunately cancelled their IPO a while back. It looks very promising, as only one room is needed, the installation is much smaller and much cheaper than a traditional Proton Beam treatment center.
Any thoughts on this?

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boulosfi
Irregular
boulosfi
October 20, 2015 9:43 am

You know what ticks me off the most? I feel like they are intentionally deceitful. Before you posted your article Travis, I read the pitch and although I kinda knew you would eventually expose it, I could not wait because I found it very interesting, and because of the time difference (I am in the middle east). So I got through the clues and I figured out it was IBA, and the conference was ASTRO 2015. So I went to ASTRO’s website to see what ground breaking session was taking place on Monday at 5:30, expecting a plenary session or something, or at least an oral presentation. Lo and behold, it’s a POSTER SESSION! I am a physician and I can tell you this much, anything that has the potential transformative implications of the so-called abscopal effect on a large scale will NEVER be limited to a poster session. This is outrageous, insulting, and fraudulent all at once, for the modest sum of 5000 USD.

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Mino Taur
Mino Taur
October 21, 2015 3:12 pm
Reply to  boulosfi

So a poster session. You and your co-authors and your poster are in a big meeting hall with hundreds of other posters. You may draw a crowd or you may not. I didn’t. Your poster may lead to a paper in an influential journal, or it may not. Mine did. Doesn’t sound like a company stock taking off like a Wall Street Rocket, does it? Just trying to draw a picture for Gumshoe fans who aren’t medical scientists. Uh, Travis, they’re not all medical scientists, are they? Sometimes, as far above my head as the discussions get, I wonder.

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Joao silva
Member
Joao silva
October 21, 2015 7:33 am

Could this have something to do with this new – IBA AND ICNAS ANNOUNCE GA-68 PRODUCTION ON CYCLONE® 18 USING IBA LIQUID TARGET & SYNTHERA®.
ICNAS is a portuguese university institute that recently presented a new research about this subject

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D. McCullam
D. McCullam
October 21, 2015 2:22 pm

5 years ago there were 4 proton treatment sites in the US. Mayo is now opening one in Arizona at a reputed $180 million cost. There may be others. Apparently the system has advantages, not the least is that you are supposedly not adversely impacted physically throughout the 45 or so treatments . Challenges include an interview, a review of your file by their committee for acceptance and a significant waiting period thereafter. Personally the wait would have exceeded three months. Costs were not discussed until you were cleared. It’s rumored that there were exceptions to the wait period. Your urologist is the key to reasonably sound advice re the many options.

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fedwatcher
Member
fedwatcher
October 22, 2015 11:27 pm

Loma Linda Cancer Center in Southern California has been running many ads on their Proton Beam Cancer Therapy.

This is a prestigious center so their use of Proton Beam carries weight.

It is very expensive to install a Proton Beam. A key to its acceptance would be if a large well respected hospital chain installed one. But even then it would be cheaper to move patients to the hospitals with the equipment rather than install it everywhere. Even great technology can have a limited market due to cost, and medical devices like the Proton Beam are under pressure as funds are limited.

We must face up to the fact that “Death Panels” have long existed. Just look at the recent changes in recommended intervals for breast cancer and prostrate cancer screenings. This is the NIH and not just the insurance industry (however, in our version of Crony Capitalism, maybe it is the insurance industry).

If the technology proves out, growth yes but spectacular growth no.

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Rog Cook
Member
Rog Cook
October 23, 2015 1:07 pm

Hi guys, I live in the UK. It seems to me that the best proton beam therapy in the world has been developed at CERN, Geneva and a tiny UK company has all the rights to the technology. They have massive deals with the Chinese. It’s AVO.L Advanced Oncotherapy, I think it has a minor US listing as AONCF.
HERES A FEW HEADLINES:
Sinophi Healthcare Ltd: Seven China hospital deals worth £800 million focused on proton therapy to treat cancer.
….
It’s trading at about 7p a share and could be a mega bagger. It’s got cast iron patents and some of the world’s best academics from CERN on the board. It’s share of 2015 from a UK stockbroker.
Please feel free to pick holes in it, as I’m thinking of putting a fair wad of cash into it!

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Paul
Member
Paul
October 25, 2015 12:57 pm
Reply to  Rog Cook

Some time ago I looked into this one, but concluded that there is not enough information to invest. You want holes to be picked in it ?
1) It’s impossible to know that they got iron cast patents. You could task a specialized agency to do a patent review at a cost of at least $50,000.
2) The patents they got is not the whole story. Even more important is whether there are patents they don’t have but need access to. Again, if you knew their device in detail, you could task a specialized agency to do a „freedom to operate“ evaluation at a cost of probably in excess of $200,000.
3) It’s one thing to have great scientists, but you need a completely different skill set to move from a prototype to a commercial reliable machine. (Plus you need to build a worldwide sales and service infrastructure).
4) To build a number of commercial machines and infrastructure you need a lot of capital. There are essentially two ways to get capital. You happen to find a guy like Tusk who can create the hype to collect money without wiping out existing shareholders. Or you do deals with large companies, like Variant or Siemens. You get say £30 million in exchange for 10% royalties, then another £50 million for additional 10% royalties on future sales. By the time you have a commercial product all the profits go to the royalty receiving company.
5) If this is a truly disruptive technology, why don’t the big guys (in fear of losing out) simply buy the company with such a tiny market cap ? The argument that the founding scientists would never sell doesn’t hold. It’s always just a matter of price and incentives (bribe them with a few millions, give them fancy titles and well equipped labs to persue their hobbies)

Rog Cook
Member
Rog Cook
October 26, 2015 5:09 pm
Reply to  Paul

Hi Paul, thanks for writing. I think things have advanced since you last looked. They now have major orders from China!

http://www.iii.co.uk/stockmarketwire/271262/circle-run-new-harley-street-cancer-centre?context=LSE:AVO
Circle, the employee co-owned healthcare group, has signed a joint venture agreement with Advanced Oncotherapy to operate a cancer centre in Harley Street, using new high energy proton beam technology.
Circle expects to start operating the new 11,000 square foot facility from late 2017. When fully operational, it is anticipated to treat around 500 patients a year, from the UK and across the world.
..
http://www.iii.co.uk/research/LSE:AVO/news/item/1689721/second-commercial-sale-proton-therapy-system?context=LSE:AVO
…. 20 August 2015, it has now received a purchase order for its LIGHT machine from the China-Japan Union Hospital of Jilin University, through its partnership with Sinophi Healthcare Limited (“Sinophi”).
The purchase order, worth between $75-80m (subject to final configuration of the treatment rooms), relates to a single LIGHT system to be installed at the heart of a five treatment room facility.
This is the second commercial sale of the Company’s next-generation proton therapy system in China and follows the announcement in March 2015 that the Company’s LIGHT system will be installed as part of Sinophi’s oncology hospital project in Huai’an City, in Jiangsu province, East China.
……
As for patents, I’m not worried. This is a spinoff from CERN, the biggest particle collider in the world. They have more than enough expertise to handle that. I think a possible takeover is a valid remark, but it’s early days yet, and this technology is much more advanced than anything else out there, and the market is worth billions. They want to develop that. Anyway, if you are interested, look at Beahfort Securities, they are the house broker.

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5jake5
5jake5
October 25, 2015 3:25 pm

Read article “Wealth Daily re: $ 50 Retirement Plan. Want you to subscribe to Crow’s Nest. Have you ever known about this?

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James Darman
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James Darman
May 17, 2016 12:36 pm

I have recently acquired shares in AMS- American Shares hospital Services. I wouldn’t let the debt throw you off course. The debt is non recourse. It’s been declining.

The sales cycle for leasing the Proton units is extremely long but this is perhaps the best pure play on adoption of Proton. They will be presenting (for the first time ever as far as I know) at micro Cap conferences. They got way ahead of the curve in 2008 and were able to lock in 3 Mevions for almost half price.

I’m just saying it’s worth a look.

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