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Stansberry’s “Venture #73 — The Pentagon’s Chipmaker”

Lashmet's "Opportunity #73" -- What's the recent IPO being teased by Stansberry Venture Value?

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, August 25, 2021

Yesterday we got a ton of questions about another full-throated pitch for a high-end Stansberry newsletter, this time Dave Lashmet’s Stansberry Venture Technology, which they say has a list price of $5,500 and is typically offered in promotions, as is the case today, for $2,500/yr, no refunds (as with most publishers, Stansberry offers a brief “if you don’t like it, you can have a credit for one of our other letters” guarantee, in this case for 30 days).

The ad doesn’t actually include Lashmet, but is one of those slickly produced “infomercials” with a hired actor reading the spiel and making the offer, and the basic pitch is that the world is over a barrel when it comes to semiconductors, thanks to our extreme reliance on Taiwan and, particularly on Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) for the most advanced chips in the world. Over the years, the outsourcing of US chip designers has led to essentially all high-end chip fabrication (for Apple, NVIDIA, AMD, whoever else you want to name) being done on that island nation, along with a huge share of lower-end chip production… but the challenge, of course, is that after putting the boot down on Hong Kong’s throat a little bit more, it seems like China is further amplifying its threatening behavior toward Taiwan, making it one of the more likely flashpoints for future global conflict.

We don’t know if historians will write about the 2020s setting the stage for the Taiwan Chip Wars, or if the tension will ease before something ugly happens, but we do know that chip designers and technology companies around the world, and the governments who rely on them, are sounding the alarm about our overwhelming dependence on Taiwan’s semiconductor industry. Which has led, here in the US at least, to a meaningful boost of government interest in fixing that problem — primarily by incentivizing or funding a ramp-up in US semiconductor manufacturing. A lot of chip design still happens in the US, and a lot of the equipment for building semiconductors is made either in the US or in Europe still, but the actual foundries where chips are formed are very thin on the ground here. The revolution in outsourcing has brought massive advantages, with huge foundries in Taiwan that can take new designs for chips and build them faster and better than anyone else, but it has also built up our dependence on a island nation whose big brother still considers it a bratty runaway province who should come home.

That’s probably not news to you, the story gets a lot of attention in the business press, and I’ve written about Taiwan a bunch of times as a meaningful risk for all kinds of technology companies… and, of course, for global peace if it turns into a shooting war. It takes a couple years to build a semiconductor fab, and longer still to build up the expertise and experience to run one with precision, but, in the worst case scenario, it might only take a day to turn more than 60% of global chip manufacturing off and stop shipments, and put essentially all global manufacturing on hold. I don’t think that will happen, China has to measure it’s coveted role as the world’s factory and leading trade partner against its desire to reunify Taiwan with the PRC against its will, and outdo the US in global influence, but I don’t know that it won’t happen, either. And on the other side, for 50 years Taiwan’s biggest ally and supporter has been the United States, in a careful dance over Taiwan’s status that made headlines under Nixon and continues to be a major part of the dysfunctional US-China relationship today… and the US military industrial complex is, coincidentally enough, currently at a bit of a loss as we pull out of our longest war in history in Afghanistan, and looking around for the next profitable enemy… you can certainly set the stage for a possible showdown that could spiral out of control.

So anyway, that’s the story — the US has a limited amount of semiconductor manufacturing capacity, which has been highlighted because of chip shortages brought on by the COVID pandemic and the uneven restart of manufacturing and trade, and is becoming, beyond that immediate supply/demand imbalance, a strategic problem for US companies and the government.

Or I should say, I guess, that the US has a limited amount of non-controlled semiconductor fabrication capacity that’s available for “on demand” production like many of Taiwan’s fabs are. Not every chipmaker’s production has been outsourced to Taiwan — there are still a lot of chipmaking facilities in the US, even though the market share has fallen, but most of the chip foundries in the US are run by big companies like Intel, Analog Devices, Qorvo, Micron, NXP Semiconductors, Infineon, Texas Instruments and others, making their own chips, not necessarily competing on the high end for the most advanced processes and not available for contract manufacturing for other designers.

A lot of the backlog recently is not just from the shutdown of all chipmaking in general, or from soaring demand, it’s from global interdependence, the rise of “just in time” supply chains, inspired by Toyota, that led to carmakers and other manufacturers holding essentially no inventory, and probably from hyper-specialization — an auto assembly line might be shut down, or the design of a car changed on the fly, because one specific chip can’t be sourced for a month, and for some chips there might be only one source at any given time (here’s the Detroit Free Press take on that, just FYI).

Part of the solution, we’re told in this latest presentation from the Stansberry folks, is in a recommendation they call “Venture Opportunity #73” — which I guess means it’s the 73rd recommendation made by Stansberry Venture Technology, which makes me feel kind of old. Seems like just yesterday I was writing about Lashmet launching this newsletter with “Venture #1,” not long after Stansberry parted ways with Frank Curzio and turned his old Phase 1 newsletter into a couple Venture letters.

OK, sheesh, I just checked, and that was 2014… where does the time go? Sometimes those babies grow up so fast!

But anyway… what you want to know is, what’s this opportunity that they pitch as “The Pentagon’s Chipmaker?”

Here’s the marketing language from the ad:

“One of our top analysts is recommending you take action on a small American company that could be the solution to an escalating economic and political crisis.

“In the last six years alone, he’s spotted 25 different ways you could have doubled your money or better.

“His next opportunity – Venture #73 – could be the biggest of his career.”

And here are the clues I pulled out of the presentation — no transcript on this one, sadly, so I’m paraphrasing in some spots…

It’s a small American company (they think it could soar 500%)

Things might move quickly, and “You could look like a genius by Christmas.”

And it went public “just recently,” trades only a few hundred thousand shares a day, is a tenth the size of direct competitors and 1/100th the size of Apple, and it’s not in any index funds yet.

Plus, it already works with the Pentagon to supply chips, and with the government more broadly, including getting a sweet deal recently for a plant, leasing it for only $1 a month… and they’ve had officials from the government touring their facilities as this talk about investing in chip manufacturing in the US has heated up.

And that’s about it by way of clues. So what’s the stock?

Well, the first name that typically comes to mind when people talk up US foundries is the largest US foundry company, GlobalFoundries, which was spun out of AMD (AMD) years ago, when AMD decided to go “fabless” and outsource fabrication of chips (they do contract manufacturing for fabless chip companies, the same basic business model as Taiwan Semiconductor — they aren’t as advanced, but they do have foundries in the US, as well as in Germany and Singapore). There have been rumors for a while that Intel (INTC) might buy GlobalFoundries, but they’ve consistently said that their plan is to go public in 2022, and last week they filed their first confidential S-1 with the SEC to start the process moving, so it could happen sooner.

GlobalFoundries isn’t a tiny little company, though, it’s likely to go public with a valuation in the $25+ billion range (the Intel rumors were for a ~$30 billion buyout), and, of course, we can’t invest in it — so nobody would tease it. That’s not our stock today. What might match the actual clues?

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Thinkolator sez that Lashmet’s secret stock is almost certainly SkyWater Technology (SKYT), another spinout by a US chip company (they were effectively a subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor (CY), which sold the business, mostly just a single foundry in Minnesota, to a private equity firm in 2017, who then worked on it for a few years and took it public in April of this year).

That’s a perfect match for all the clues… and whaddya know, for confirmation the stock soared higher by more than 25% yesterday, after the Stansberry folks made this heavy sales pitch. The folks at the Motley Fool theorized this was because of an expanded deal for wearable health sensors, but no, it looks it was really because a few Stansberry subscribers jumped on board, presumably paid up their $2,500, and bought the stock willy-nilly (or, of course, did their own Gumshoeing work). That created about $250 million in value in one afternoon, for what’s now a billion-dollar company whose primary asset is still that Minnesota foundry that Cypress sold for $30 million in 2017 to cut costs.

That kind of volatility is not new to SkyWater — they’ve been public just since mid-April but have already had two 25% up days (including yesterday), and one 40% down day (when they reported disappointing earnings in late July).

So that’s the downside, this implies a really hefty valuation for an asset that nobody really wanted four years ago… but there is, of course, also a positive story — now that we care about making chips in the US again, they might become profitable, and the demand for their production capacity might rise. The company did change a bit during its time in private equity ownership, they have invested pretty substantially in upgrading and expanding the facility and are looking to increase production, both in Minnesota and in Florida, and move up the value chain a bit by adding packaging to their offerings (looks like they call that Technology as a Service (TaaS), naturally, everyone wants an acronym — in this case, that doesn’t mean a subscription like other aaS acronyms, it mostly means adding packaging to fabrication to get more of the value from producing a packaged collection of chips to be installed in an end product)… and SkyWater’s leadership does see the current strategic imperative as an opportunity.

The big market that SkyWater has relied on in the past is defense, since the government requires secure and US-based manufacturing for most of its defense procurement — outsourcing has led to massive leaps forward in technology and massive cost advantages for private firms, but the military pays up for security. Here’s how they describe their status:

DMEA Category 1A Trusted Accreditation
“Whether your program is government or commercial, you will benefit from the robust information and IP handling systems that support SkyWater’s Trusted Foundry accreditation. SkyWater uniquely supports Aerospace and Defense customers as the only solely U.S.-owned and U.S.-operated pure-play foundry.”

SkyWater is positioning itself as part of the solution beyond the government, too — their CEO submitted a commentary that was published in Barron’s last month, called “How to Fight and Win the Semiconductor War”, and specifically talked about the potential of upgrading existing facilities as well as building new fabs, and the critical need for public/private partnerships to make that happen.

And yes, they did recently get a special $1 government deal to help them expand, as teased — though it was on a pretty small scale. That’s a deal with a county in Florida, not the feds, they took over a small foundry in Osceola, FL in January (that’s mostly the southern Orlando suburbs), with plans to expand it into a larger semiconductor packaging facility, and that was indeed a lease deal for $1 a year, for at least 23 years. As you might expect, it was an effort to bring jobs to the area and build up a technology industry. The Pentagon isn’t ignoring them, though, they did also get a $170 million deal a couple years ago to expand their Minnesota fab and increase their production capacity for radiation-hardened chips (as needed in satellites, for example).

So yes, as one of the few US “foundry for hire” operators, they’ll probably continue to get a portion of the money that the government throws into expanding US chip production… and if auto companies and tech companies begin to spec more US chips, who knows, perhaps they’ll see increased demand and lead to more dramatic expansion, though that’s not cheap. They are not operating super-high-end foundries like the ones who turn Apple and NVIDIA’s designs into magic and generate 50% gross margins, they’re a ways down the scale from that, but the supply chain bottlenecks in almost everything of late have reminded us of how critical it is to have those lower-end chips, too.

Looking just at the income statement for the second quarter (press release here), which was really their first quarter as a public company, it’s not a terribly impressive business on paper — this was the worst quarter we’ve seen numbers for yet, with an extremely tight gross margin, so they did increase revenues by about 30% from last year but they also had much worse margins than expected and more than doubled their operating expenses, and their net loss doubled to about $10 million (pre-tax, at least — they had a tax refund that helped a little).

That means the initial expectations by the few analysts who covered this name right after the IPO have had to be downgraded — the initial guess had been that they would be profitable in the third quarter and earn a few cents per share for the full year, but the July report quashed that idea and now the expectation is that SkyWater Technology will lose about 50 cents per share this year, and break even next year, mostly because of the ramp-up in spending they’re doing to expand capacity (the company doesn’t provide guidance, so analysts really have to guess — and they’re pretty bad at that even when it comes to established companies). The “what have you done for me lately” reaction to that brought the shares down sharply, and now Stansberry’s Venture pitch for the shares has them pretty well recovered from that… so what’s next?

I wouldn’t overreact to these initial quarterly updates — the first quarters from a public company are often pretty unpredictable, with limited analyst coverage to really set reasonable expectations and often no real guidance from the company… and with the management team either trying to impress by saving up good sales for that first quarterly update or, as perhaps in this case, saving up the bad news about the cost of expansion and delays in government funding for after the IPO was complete.

As a general rule, one that I break sometimes, my preference with IPOs is to wait until that six-month lockup period approaches, since that’s when insider sales (or the fear of upcoming insider sales) often pressure the share price — in this case, that would be mid-October for SKYT, and the big question I’d have is what Oxbow, the private equity firm that took SkyWater public, will do with its controlling stake — they hold about 28 million shares, which is an overwhelmingly huge 75% of the company (executives and board members drive the insider control up to about 79%), so my assumption, and it could be wrong, is that they’re likely to gradually reduce that stake, as private equity companies typically do after taking a firm public. What impact that might have on the share price depends on how people feel about the stock at the time, whether it’s a rush to get into the stock or a rush to get out, but with well over 80% of the shares either owned by insiders or held by institutional investors who don’t typically sell (probably more than 90%, really), the limited float certainly exaggerates the price movement when there’s either panic or profit lust in the air.

And at the same time, I wouldn’t overreact with too much greed to a newsletter pitch like this — if the only thing driving the shares up by 30% was Stansberry’s attention, as seems to be the case here, then the odds are pretty good that attention will wane in the weeks to come, patient folks will be rewarded, and, absent other good news, the shares should settle down as a result, particularly since we’re heading into the end of the IPO lockup in October. I’m not champing at the bit to buy shares anyway, I don’t understand the business well enough for that, but I will keep an eye on it… and my guess is that patient investors will probably see another opportunity. The period leading up to the lockup expiration on October 18 and going into the next earnings call (probably mid-November, no date confirmed yet) should be interesting. No promises, though, they may get a huge government contract to build a new fab somewhere else, they might become an investor darling and snowball this Stansberry attention into something bigger as the float remains tiny, who knows?

This is an interesting idea, it’s certainly tied to a big-picture theme that could get a lot of attention in the next year if the worry about Taiwan and semiconductor shortages continues to heat up, and if GlobalFoundries decides to go public before the end of the year that much larger IPO could even drive some attention to SKYT as well. I’ll see if I can get to understanding the company a little better over the next couple months.

That’s just what I think, though… and when it comes to your money, it is, of course, your call — do you like the idea of buying into a once-discarded industry that’s getting some love again, in US chip manufacturing? Rather roll the dice with a small fella like SKYT or wait around to see how the expected GlobalFoundries IPO turns out? Have other favorites in the space? Let us know with a comment below… and thanks for reading!

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orangutan
Member
August 25, 2021 6:00 am

I broke my pick trying to sort this one out and you delivered mightily overnight. Thank you Mr. Thinkolator for the analysis! I also agree with your post IPO takes. I will be following these companies when the insiders make their moves. I was burned by Coinbase IPO and many pre ipo Spacs with insider selling. Prudent to wait. Thank you.

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1100y6731
August 25, 2021 8:49 am

I do subscribe to several Stansberry newsletters – not Lashmet’s newsletter though. I enjoy their commentary but know that almost every email commentary is really an “excuse” for another newsletter promotion. I guess that is how they survive. I have done fairly well following them.

I, too, wore out my google trying to figure out #73. Looking back at my notes, SKYT wasn’t on my radar. Good Work Gumshoe! I have learned not to chase a stock pitch. If my due diligence works out and I want to buy, the price almost always floats back down to earth. It’s worth noting that in the days leading up to that presentation yesterday, I received numerous emails touting the presentation and teasing that #73 would be given out “for just watching”. I knew better. Stansberry (or any other newsletter) isn’t going to put on an elaborate presentation without a price tag attached.

Thank you

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Rick
Member
Rick
August 30, 2021 8:47 pm
Reply to  1100y6731

Yes I too have several Stansberry programs and got sucked into the bait and switch info commercial and nothing was free to even present members of their other programs.

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brad c
brad c
August 25, 2021 8:59 am

I really love your newsletter! It brings reason and perspective to all the investment newsletter hype these days. I was intrigued by your dissection of SKYT. I am curious if you know exactly what kind of chips they produce for the military? Are these same chips being produced elsewhere? What is their future PE ratio right now? Since analysts think the stock will fall 50 cents in the next year, what do you think about buying a small amount of their stock with a limit of 50 cents below the current price – or would you drop the limit further to account for the temporary increase due to Stansbury’s recommendation of the company? I’m interested in your thoughts and the thoughts of others on this company.

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Jeffrey Dubin
Member
Jeffrey Dubin
August 25, 2021 11:07 am

According to an article that was published in Seeking Alpha yesterday, the reason that SKYT soared 25% yesterday was because of news that Morgan Stanley bought 4,670 shares of the company at a value of $130,000.

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1100y6731
August 25, 2021 12:16 pm
Reply to  Jeffrey Dubin

I saw that too. Morgan Stanley was part of it but I bet Stansberry was the main driving force.

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Ignatz
Ignatz
August 25, 2021 2:55 pm

Just to note: TSM is building a new fab facility in AZ , though no one mentioned it. TSM is producing at sub 10Nm line widths for Apple and others and no doubt at 10Nm and above for other applications. I’m pretty sure no US based fab is capable of sub 10Nm yet. SKYT may get some gov funding that pushes up the stock and everybody “wins” but I wouldn’t expect more than that.

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Simon Sapsford
August 26, 2021 11:33 am

The foundry that is SKYT was one of those failed ventures that went private, then was sold to Cypress at a huge loss for $30M then Cypress invested in it and spun it off public with a $500M market cap now up to $1.1B. This article, https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14416247 , is both encouraging and discouraging. They are working on 3D chip technology for military chips to get greater density. US owned and operated so maybe get more government support. However, they can only do 90 nanometers whereas TSM is cranking out 7 and 10 nanometer chips and working on 3. They are getting cute (3D stacking – the future) because we are so far behind on the manufacturing technology. Might be a temporary advantage but who knows. Interesting quote from Cypress Semi founder; T.J. Rodgers, 73, the founder of Cypress Semiconductor, pointed to the inefficiencies and slow decision making on the part of governments and said, “I’ve always looked at government as an interference, not a help, not a partnership.” This is one of those plays that could bear fruit if the Gov. throws a bunch of money at it but otherwise I’d have to see some manufacturing breakthrough. SKYT has been working with DARPA and MIT for three years on 3D chips but heat issues seem to be the limiting factor for these designs. SKYT has been working with DARPA and MIT for three years on 3D chips but heat issues seem to be the limiting factor for these designs. https://youtu.be/6ir_–MgMJI

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hultster
hultster
February 15, 2023 12:36 pm

Time for a re-look? SKYT

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Gerard O'Dowd
Member
Gerard O'Dowd
August 25, 2021 3:57 pm

Dear Travis: I think you need to up date your prior probability, Likelihood ratio, and posterior probability (Bayes Theorem) on the question of Red China’s invasion of Taiwan.

I make this recommendation in total admiration for the astuteness of the Thinkolator in deciphering the latest S&A David Lashmet stock recommendation and newsletter video pitch, though I didn’t spend the time to listen to the presentation, so I can neither confirm nor deny if you are right.

I don’t really think Lashmet’s semiconductor fab pick matters one way or the other (unless you can predict the future)because after spending some time reading the articles in the Special Issue of National Review on The China Threat, the Jul/Aug issue of Foreign Affairs, Can China Keep Rising? as well as The China Nightmare (2020) by Dan Blumenthal and The 100 Year Marathon by Michael Pillsbury (2015) the essential antecedent question is what is the change in the posterior probability of Xi Jinping decision to invade and accede Taiwan as a part of Red China? What is the change in Posterior probability from the baseline assumptions the West has made since the end of the Cold War and the fall of the Soviet Union as he approaches the end his term as General Secretary of the CCP, Commander in Chief of People’s Liberation Army, the author of the Great Rejuvenation of the China Nation based on reunification with Taiwan, and his desire to continue as Dictator for life as he approaches his 83 yr of life?

Xi sees himself in the pantheon of Communist GOAT, right up there with Karl Marx, Lenin, Stalin and Mao. His favorite line about CCP power is “Mao stood up China; Deng made China rich; I’ve made China strong.” The above authors say we must begin to view his positions as those of a Nationalist/Populist, rather than a Marxist-Leninist, Post Mao, Post Deng Xiaoping, Post Hu Jintao, etc.

How badly does Xi Jinping want reunification with Taiwan? How badly do Xi Jinping, the PLA Nationalist Hawks, the Chinese media, the average Chinese Communist Party comrades want to take over Taiwanese semiconductor fabrication facilities which produce the leading edge semiconductor chips in the world? The question answers itself.

Does the PLA have the capability to destroy Taiwan’s defenses, isolate and blockade Taiwan by air and sea, neutralize or destroy American defenses in the first island chain, and then successfully amphibiously land sufficient number of troops to take over the island?

I believe the answer is yes to these 4 questions? My updated posterior probability based on the ongoing PLA naval exercises in the Strait of Taiwan is approximately 95%.

My estimate is based after thinking a lot about the nature of deterrence, how it was established in the Strait of Taiwan, and the loss of American will and credible leadership to exercise what military capability it does possess regardless of its relative strength compared to Red China -which has also diminished markedly over the past 20 yrs.

Then we must ask what are the primary and secondary economic effects of a Xi decision to invade T and hence on one’s financial investments and the estimations for changes in the NPV of future cash flows for all the stocks you mentioned and virtually all others that have significant presence in Red China (AAPL, GM, SBUX, etc) or a dependence on Taiwan’s semiconductor industry based on the presumption of continued peaceful, international trade of Post WWII world order. What happens to the dollar, CPI, Treasury Rates, the DJI, NADAQ, the S&P 500?

Try to imagine if you would what would be your recommendations if you had lived in the US or Great Britain during the late 1930’s with the increase in military power and political brinksmanship and annexation of adjacent states by Nazi Germany and the Munich Agreement peace at any price negotiations by Neville Chamberlain for an imminent invasion of one of its neighbors ie Poland about which much had been published of Hitler’s hatred and desire to obliterate it from the map.

If you spend some time on the above references the Gumshoe will likely recalculate his estimates as well.

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bravobill
August 25, 2021 6:41 pm

Which is a heckavagood reason to hold off on any disarmament madness. Wait a minute, did we just do that with the last election?

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bill
Member
bill
August 27, 2021 12:25 am

Gerard sure had a lot to say and said very little I thought. You’re the best Travis! Thanks for all the good info you give us. Best always. bill

Ian Shearer
Ian Shearer
August 26, 2021 9:06 am

A truly awful set of financial data for SKYT. Shareholders equity has already gone negative. It is not worth taking on trust that the company has a profitable contract with the Pentagon on the order book. There is no evidence yet that the company can control rising costs and make a profit, in fact the reverse is the record. This is one for the notebook and review in a year.

kean
kean
August 26, 2021 7:45 pm

i am guess redirecting the discussion this my first try on this panel, i got Luke Langos presentation, and despite feeling that he is full of himself, i was enticed to buy his service ..so far about a week he lives up to his offers and daily e-mails sorry for any typos typing was NOT a graduation option in Russia 40 years ago, anyway it is Luiis Navellier who really pisses me off he has enough $ for ways of his family tree forever, and he yet leeches of , first to Eric Frye, offering free year of his service for free Navalier that who and now to Lukes service oh his OWN $100,00o.00 but returning to Lukes, i really want to believe him(i know ,EMOTIONS) but i hooked up before to profits unlimited and Paul gave not bad advice , but now i understand he, Paul Mumfily , caters to people who already have some $ to buy mostly 200$ and up stocks .Unfortunally, i am not one ofthese lucky ones i worked all my life first in Russia than in USAand i have no pention( oh , i can hear u all crying on my behalf) i started as a total novice to stock buying in May of 2020, had a short (no details)good stint with Motley fool, and stiil have a lifetime with Matt Mccall, and did alot of reading especialy comments that usually follow almost all actively traded stocks,etc …but back to LUKE

i did not have this feeling before – that he will pick the so called 10x, and i can just follow his advice, and i am now afraid what if he really does and make me rich,, despite my really small investment budget,
most of u i presume have $retirement and u want more…i want some $ to turn into pension

sorry if i am too long i am new to sharing

regards
notafool

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Rhea Fullmer
Rhea Fullmer
August 30, 2021 7:52 pm

So glad your sharing your knowledge and a less reactive response to chaos. thank You

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