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Strategic Short Report

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Mike
Guest
Mike
December 30, 2009 1:42 am

I’ve been a subscriber for over two years. I’ve ridden his recommendations up, now I’m riding them way down. His newsletter write-ups are well written, and his conclusions are very well thought out. He is also wrong wrong wrong. He’s not even wrong some of the time. He’s been totally wrong for most of this year. How is that possible? He likes to use the term “in hindsight”. He talks about how his timing was a little off. No kidding. He laments how the market is not seeing what he’s seeing. Wow. That kind of arrogance will lose you a lot of money. The only thing sadder is that I keep investing in his picks! I figure that the market has to reward him some time!

jack
Guest
jack
January 9, 2010 2:22 am

This was a disaster in 2009.

mikemassey
Guest
mikemassey
April 27, 2010 7:07 pm

I was a new subscriber to strategic short report. my first trade that Amoss recommended was to buy WFSL puts. I lost 100 percent of my money. My second trade he recommended was to buy BMO puts. I lost all my money again. This guy has a terrible track recored. He is totally guessing when he advises his subscribers to buy or sell. I lost nearly $9,000.00. I can tell you from experience to totally avoid this guy.

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Dean
Guest
Dean
November 8, 2010 12:31 pm

I tried this service last year for about 4 or 5 months, and finally quit because following it’s recommendations was causing me to lose too much money. In retrospect, had I done exactly opposite of it’s advice, I would’ve made a decent profit. But Dan’s reasoning to his specific recommendations sound so convincing, it would’ve been a very difficult thing to do. As stated, the author does come across as being astute and knowledgeable. But the bottom line is how it performs. I was very disappointed in the results, as I lost quite a few thousands of dollars following it’s recommended option plays. As such, there is no way I could recommend it to anyone. Their customer service was OK. They pro-rated my subscription and sent back the cost of my unused portion.

Steele
Irregular
Steele
January 11, 2011 4:11 pm

I was initially very enthusiastic – the first recommendation I bought was Lehman puts! It’s been largely downhill since then. My record on closed positions is a 13.9% loss; there have been some winners over the last year or so, but more losers. I haven’t followed all of his recommendations, but my impression (which may or may not be accurate) is that there are still a lot of losers. Amoss writes well and clearly, and the material is detailed, interesting, and well-written. The problem is that even when stocks are clearly overvalued, such overvaluation has the bad habit of persisting beyond an option’s expiration. I agree with the writer who said that often you need to act quickly (same half of the day) to get in at the recommended price.

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Fred
Guest
Fred
March 5, 2011 8:28 pm

Looks like everybody has bailed on this guy. I have finally given up on him and canceled the subscription. As others have noted, he is a prolific “talker” and gives you loads of research smoke. His record for the past 2 years has been absolutely horrendous. I don’t know how you keep a job with the record he has compiled in 2009-2010, and so far this year. I hit big on his Lehman Bros. reco a couple of years ago and made some good money on his GDX call, but who needs to pay him to trade gold? He refuses to face what is going on in the market in spite of his brilliance and research. He ignores the trend and the sentiment. I am a contrarian myself but you have to face reality at some point. Beware of his letter. I think the portfolio currently has only a couple of picks that are “up”. Many are down terribly. I still have one left, and it is down 97%. Stay clear of this guy.

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GUFFEY
Guest
GUFFEY
May 10, 2011 9:51 pm

Shorted PTRY, Down 19%, the guy is an idiot.

Thomas
Member
Thomas
August 12, 2011 10:43 pm

I get this service as part of the Agora Reserve. I like the guy, I generally like his research. That being said, his track record the last 2 years was CATASTROPHIC.

Clearly, a short bias will hurt anyone in an up-market which we had for the last 2 years. However, I do have 2 big criticisms:

A) at some point you have to take into account the macro picture with stock valuations going up purely because of QE, yield-chasing and the declining USD. In fact, when the dollar declines, profits in USD go up. He never understood this. He has been talking about imminent profit squeezing since early 2010. Hasn’t happened yet. Shorting stocks based on absolute fundamentals does not work in this environment.

B) Some of his picks are not only not going down, the firms seem to perform well based on fundamentals. Cases in point: Lubrizol, which he shorted at $90 with target $60, was taken over by Buffett for $130+. And worst of all GMCR, which he shorted above $28, target ‘lower teens’, recent price $100.

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rew
Guest
rew
March 24, 2013 12:46 am

First, it may be a bit outdated to file this newsletter under options because Dos Amos now often does straight stock long and short recommendations. Anyhow, here is the performance of his portfolio as of 3/24/2012. I have left out the underlying assets, as the particular recommendations are no doubt protected by copyright.
Long Portfolio
Asset Gain
1 -39.7%
2 7.3%
3 -51.5%
4 -17.3%
5 -73.3%

Short Portfolio
Asset Gain
6 1.1%
7 -5.8%
8 -27.1%
9 -23.7%
10 -8.9%
11 13.9%
12 9.7%
13 -49.5%
14 -45.1%
15 -27.0%
16 -58.0%
17 -97.1%
18 -80.8%
19 -1.2%
20 -51.4%
21 -70.0%
22 -120.6%
Note how in a bull market this newsletter not only lost money hand over fist on the short positions, it did so on the long positions as well. That said, this may be a good newsletter for contrarians — as you can see, if you took the opposite side of every one of his trades you would be making a lot of money.

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👍 4
rew
Guest
rew
March 25, 2013 4:55 pm

Oops… the portfolio I showed is for 3/24/2013, not 3/24/2012.

👍 4
jay_
Irregular
jay_
December 22, 2013 1:05 pm

Great analysis by this fundamentalist trader. But the QE and the fact that we are in a bull market seems to have evaded his scope. A rising tide raises all boats may not be a consideration in his case.

👍 14

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