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“Mars Tech IPO” lauded by “the billionaire behind Google and Amazon” is called by David Fessler, “The Next Stock of the Decade”

What's being teased by Strategic Trends Investor as "The Largest Economic Opportunity of the 21st Century?"

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, December 18, 2020


The first version of this article was published on July 8, at which point the stock being teased was around $13 — Fessler’s teaser ad is being circulated again and sending a lot of questions our way, so we’re re-posting this teaser solution for you… the ad is largely unchanged, as far as we can tell, and is still dated June 2020, but the shares are now trading at closer to $25. I’ve added an update to the bottom of the article, but most of what follows is unchanged from when we originally published it six months ago.

The teaser ad I’m reviewing today is from David Fessler, a pitch for his Strategic Trends Investor ($79/yr) that has been running for a few days now. It’s all about a miraculous machine with some little ceramic tiles that will power our world and make us all rich… ready?

Here’s the part of the tease that gets your blood flowing:

“Every decade has a single stock that defines it.

“It’s that one company that creates a new technology, a new product or a whole new industry that’s so innovative and game-changing…

“That it rewards investors with a massive payday.”

And those stocks are easy to find in retrospect, of course, which is what they do in this pitch — noting Walmart from the 1980s, Cisco in the 1990s, Monster Beverage in the 2000s and Netflix in the 2010s, with returns for those ranging from 4,000% to 70,000%.

So ears are perked up when he says “I’ve just identified what I believe is ‘the Next Stock of the Decade.'”

So what business is this new stock in? More hype from the ad:

“It’s a company that has created the most game-changing new technology in the world today.

“60 Minutes has compared it to ‘the holy grail.’

“Yale called the coming spread of this type of technology ‘the next big thing.'”

And he quotes an unnamed shadowy billionaire, who says that this is “The Largest Economic Opportunity of the 21st Century.” In Fessler’s words…

“Those are the words of a billionaire… a member of the Midas List of the very richest people in America… and the secret moneyman behind some of the biggest success stories in history.

“This secretive billionaire was quietly the lead investor in both Amazon and Google.”

Why such a big deal? Here’s a little hype:

“Because this company… which just recently IPO’d and trades for less than $10… is set to become the most important company in America.

“The company was founded by a brilliant NASA rocket scientist.

“He was working on a secret project to create livable environments on the surface of Mars.

“And in doing so, he managed to create a new technology that will forever change the planet Earth.”

Ooooo… secretive high tech investors, Mars scientists, recent IPO — that’s almost all the “get me to quiverin'” levers you can pull in a teaser ad (just add “secret location” and some kind of Indiana Jones story, and I’ll be all but helpless).

So what’s the actual technology? We get some hints about that, too…

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“The base component of this technology is just 100 millimeters by 100 millimeters (mm).”

And it’s not just a technology, apparently there’s also some sort of product available…

“The rollout is happening as we speak….

“It has deals in place with Walmart, Google, eBay, Apple, Staples, FedEx, Safeway, Home Depot, Macy’s, AT&T, Honda, Yahoo, Verizon and more.”

So… we know it went public recently, trades near $10, and at that price has a market cap of around a billion dollars — which used to be a lot, but today can still mean you’re a pretty “undiscovered” small cap.

And the technology is some sort of silicon membrane…

“… a simple ceramic tile.

“It’s created using one of the most common and widely available materials on earth… beach sand.

“And on each side, the tile is coated with a special type of ink….

“When you channel electricity into the tile and through the special ink… it creates exactly two byproducts.

“One, breathable air.

“And two, usable natural gas.”

Which means, once you reverse the flow, that you can use air and natural gas to create electricity, without combustion.

So that takes away some of the mystery — that means what they’re teasing here is just a type of fuel cell, something you’ve likely heard of before. Here’s a good basic description of how they work, it basically extracts the energy in hydrocarbons through an electrochemical reaction instead of through combustion — which means that although you’re using fuel, usually something like natural gas, you’re not creating nearly the same level of emissions as you would by burning that fuel — no sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide or soot.

So this is, as many of you have already guessed, the long-hyped company Bloom Energy (BE), which was rumored as a possible IPO even before the 2008 financial crisis, but finally did come public about two years ago to some fanfare, rising from the $15 IPO price to over $30 before the late-2018 weak market took the wind out of their sails. The stock has been as low as $2 or so in the past year, and as high as $14 right before the coronavirus collapse. It’s still quite small, the market cap is about $1.4 billion at the recent $11.50 share price, and they do have a meaningful level of revenue, at $740 million over the past year, though revenue growth is low (6%) and their product and operating costs are still very high (gross margin is 12%, the profit margin is negative 50% — meaning it costs them about a billion dollars to generate $740 million in revenue).

Here’s how Bloom describes itself:

“Bloom Energy was founded in 2001 with a mission to make clean, reliable, and affordable energy for everyone in the world. To fulfill this mission, the company has developed a distributed, on-site electric power solution that is redefining the $2.4 trillion electric power market. Our solution is a stationary power generation platform built for the digital age. The Bloom Energy Server is capable of delivering highly reliable, uninterrupted, 24×7 constant (or base load) power that is also clean and sustainable. Commercial and industrial electricity customers are our initial focus and our customer base includes 25 of the Fortune 100 companies. Bloom Energy is headquartered in San Jose, California.”

And that “secret moneyman” quoted in the ad is John Doerr, who is the Chairman of legendary venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins… though the “Largest Economic Opportunity of the 21st Century” quote is actually from 2010, when he was interviewed by 60 Minutes as part of a story on Bloom Energy, and was about clean energy in general (though at the time, Bloom was the first clean energy investment Kleiner Perkins had made).

So since we’re quoting that 2010 story here, I should quote the skeptical stance from a decade ago, too, since it’s probably still at least somewhat relevant — this is from that same 60 Minutes transcript, when they interviewed longtime tech writer Michael Kanellos (he was with GreenTech Media at the time):

“I’m skeptical. I’m hopeful but I’m skeptical. ‘Cause people have tried fuel cells for since the 1830s,” Kanellos said. “And they’re great ideas, right? You know, producing energy at an instant. But they’re not easy. They’re like the divas of industrial equipment. The little plates inside have to work not just for an hour or a day, but they have to work for 30 years, nonstop. And then the box has to be cheap to make.”

“What if he can get the price way down? He claims he can,” Stahl remarked.

“And if he can, the problem is then G.E. and Siemens and other conglomerates probably can do the same thing. I mean they have fuel cell patents. They have research teams that have looked at this. And they have a much greater leeway to actually spread that cost over a lot of products,” Kanellos replied.

BE shares have popped recently, largely because of their announcement last week that they’re partnering with Samsung Heavy Industries to develop fuel cell-powered ships… which, frankly, sounds a long way off (they hope to “present designs” by 2022), but is a huge market and does make a good story, as companies try to come up with ways to meet the 2030 emissions targets for the International Maritime Organization.

The story has certainly changed a lot in ten years, even the product name has been adjusted a bit (from “Bloom Boxes” to “Energy Servers”), but it hasn’t changed as quickly as folks were envisioning back then. Bloom’s reality has not yet caught up with their dreams… John Doerr first backed the company around 2001 when it was just being launched, 19 years ago, and he reportedly envisioned them being public as soon as 2010, with the company planning to be able to produce home-sized “energy servers” by now that might be priced in the $3,000 neighborhood, only a bit more expensive than a whole-house generator.

The costs have stayed stubbornly high, countered somewhat by continuing “green energy” subsidies, and the “Bloom Box” components do have a limited shelf life, so the panels in their fuel cell “stacks” have to be replaced every 5-10 years or so. But still, fuel cells tempt us because they sound so cool, and offer so much potential promise.

I’m a little surprised that Bloom didn’t have a bigger surge in revenue over the past few years, with the California wildfires and huge disaster seasons really pushing companies and homeowners to find energy security from off-grid solutions… but when you look at the numbers, it actually turns out that their revenue growth, while recently disappointing, has at least been better than the generator folks have reported. This chart compares Bloom to Generac (GNRC), the most prominent generator company — that’s Bloom revenue growth in green compared to Generac in orange, so they’ve outgrown them during their short life as a public company so far, yet GNRC shares (blue) have soared far higher than BE since the IPO (red).

GNRC Chart

The difference, of course, aside from the fact that Generac’s generators burn natural gas or propane while Bloom’s cleaner “Servers” are fuel cells, is that Generac is profitable — so while they’re growing not as quickly even with the boost from wildfires in California, they’re making money and have doubled their net income in three years, while Bloom’s losses have stayed pretty stubbornly high despite their revenue growth.

So Bloom on one hand is a hot tech story, even if it’s getting a little long in the tooth now, and on the other is a capital-intensive seller of fuel cell generators on which they consistently lose money, with a persistent debt burden and no obvious evidence of economies of scale (their cost of goods sold has at least been less than 100% since going public, but the gross margin has not really improved since the end of 2017, and operating expenses as a percent of revenue have also stayed stubbornly high). They need a lot more revenue growth to have a hope of growing into a sustainable business, but unless they also find a way to significantly reduce costs without cutting prices, they might not be able to afford to grow much faster without raising a bunch more money.

Which shouldn’t be hard, particularly these days — there’s money growing on trees, they were able to refinance their convertible debt last quarter on pretty good terms, and their cash burn rate is not terribly dramatic because it looks like they use stock-based compensation to cover much of their employee costs — but you do have to have some imagination to see the company getting a lot better, quickly.

The company’s first quarter shareholder letter lays out the current situation pretty well… and really, it’s still all about the future — still working on their mission to create distributed cleaner energy generation around the world, and recently ramping up their costs to push forward with development of their next generation “Servers”.

There are a few analysts covering the stock, and they expect pretty meaningful revenue growth next year, almost 25% in both 2021 and 2022 (after 2-3% growth in 2020), with improving margins. If that’s how it plays out, then the stock could do just fine from here — but analysts also overestimated BE’s revenues in 2019 by almost 20%, and estimates of that growth have been pretty steadily pushed off into the future since the IPO, so we should take that optimism with a little skepticism.

I want to like Bloom, I think their concept of more distributed energy generation (office buildings having their own fuel cells, etc.) makes sense, both because the electricity grid is getting shakier all the time and for security and efficiency purposes, even if it does rely on the natural gas infrastructure and on regular replacements of fuel cell components… but it’s hard for me to have any confidence that they’re at an inflection point after 20 years of development. It’s a tough business, with meaningful competition and lots of external factors influencing their prospects, and they’ve set themselves up to try to build the company and build market share by selling at a loss for so long now that it’s hard to see when that will change.

Maybe I’m being too skeptical, or too spoiled by the many software companies I’ve been looking at lately which are so much more scalable than these “heavy stuff” businesses like Bloom… and maybe you’ve got reasons to bet on Bloom now — if you’ve looked into this one and have a sense of where the business is going, or are excited about their new technologies or their prospective plans with Samsung, or whatever else, let us know with a comment below… maybe you’ll be able to talk me into getting involved, but for now I’ll watch Bloom Energy from the sidelines.

*****

And now for an update… Bloom’s second and third quarters were generally “disappointments” on the earnings and revenue front, and yet the stock is still surging higher. Why is that?

Well, I guess part of this is just the general enthusiasm for fuel cell stocks that we’ve seen over the past few months, with Ballard (BLDP) and Plug Power (PLUG) also surging higher as talk about moving to a “hydrogen economy” heats up a little bit and the Nikola (NKLA) story, which is partially about hydrogen fuel cell trucks, continues to fascinate investors (though to much less of a degree than was true earlier this year)… but for Bloom specifically, the only really substantial news has been that they refinanced some of their debt with “Green Convertible Notes” to reduce their borrowing costs a bit, they had one meaningful insider purchase a few months back (former GE CEO Jeff Immelt bought about $1 million worth of shares — he’s also on the Bloom Board of Directors), and they announced the deployment of 28MW worth of projects in South Korea.

They also reportedly got one analyst price-target increase, from Morgan Stanley, and the average estimate for this years earnings (well, losses — they aren’t profitable yet) improved very slightly recently with an upgrade, so they’re expected to lose only 70 cents this year now, not 95 cents as was anticipated a few months ago… though the price is currently well above the average one-year targets of analysts (that target is around $21 right now, and has been creeping up alongside the share price).

Analyst estimates for that future growth in 2021 and 2022 are about the same as they were in July. Expectations at the moment are that Bloom will break even in 2021 and become profitable in 2022, so the stock right now at ~$25 is trading at about 50X expected 2022 earnings (adjusted earnings, not GAAP). Bloom has bounced back quickly from any bits of weaker news in recent months, and now appears to be a “hot” story in the alternative energy space once again.

Will that remain the case? I have no idea. I wasn’t particularly tempted at $13, and I don’t like it any better at $25, so maybe this is just a story that I’m just not going to ever be ahead of… so thankfully, you get to decide how to invest (or speculate) with your money. If you’ve got thoughts on Bloom, I’d be delighted to hear what they are (we’ve also left the original comments attached below, so you can see what other readers were thinking a few months ago).

And here’s the update on Bloom that I shared as part of my Friday File to the Irregulars a week ago, in case you’re interested:

12/11 Friday File excerpt: Bloom Energy (BE) has been a frequent target of teaser ad campaigns, most recently in the “stock of the year” pitches from David Fessler at the Oxford Club, and there was a great article in the Wall Street Journal about the company earlier in the week, “How an Energy Startup’s Plan to Disrupt the Power Grid Got Disrupted”… here’s an excerpt, in case you missed it:

“Bloom Energy Corp.  became a hot startup more than a decade ago by promising to upset the utility industry with devices that could power the nation’s buildings. Today, it’s a reminder of how a rapidly changing industry can foil even the most driven entrepreneurs….

“As with many Silicon Valley startups, Bloom presented the kind of bold technological and revenue prospects that persuade investors to look beyond profitability. Mr. Sridhar’s vision: a Bloom Box in every American home. “It’s about seeing the world as what it can be,” he told “60 Minutes” in 2010, “and not what it is.”

“The world Mr. Sridhar foresaw hasn’t arrived. His San Jose, Calif., startup hasn’t put fuel cells in homes and instead has a niche clientele among companies willing to pay a premium for a continuous on-site energy source. In 2009, it projected profits by 2010, according to board materials reviewed by The Wall Street Journal; but it has never reported a profit, losing over $3 billion since inception.

“Mr. Sridhar’s proposition to disrupt the energy market came as the world was trying to figure out how to wean off fossil fuels. Instead, the energy industry has disrupted Mr. Sridhar’s strategy, turning to wind and solar power, which have lower costs and deliver cleaner energy than Bloom’s cells, which emit carbon dioxide. Grid power is still less expensive than Bloom’s in most places.”

And since we have been told that the support of “man who first backed Google” is a big reason for being excited about this stock, regardless of the fact that this backing was 18 years ago (John Doerr’s Kleiner Perkins first invested in Bloom in 2002), so one of the more important notes in the article is here:

“Mr. Doerr’s firm, Kleiner Perkins, last month sold its remaining Bloom shares, SEC filings show. Mr. Doerr, who remains a Bloom director, and Kleiner didn’t respond to requests for comment.”

That’s not terribly unusual, of course, for a venture capital firm to sell out of a stake in a company after it has been public for a while, success or no (most venture capital funds are tied up for only ten years, so although there’s plenty of cash sloshing around in the venture world they don’t hold things forever even if they love them), but it does mean that if you consider Doerr’s endorsement a key reason for your investment, you’re a couple decades behind on the timeline. Better to try to take a fresh look at the stock’s curent appeal today.

P.S. Readers wanna know — have you subscribed to Strategic Trends Investor? If so, please click here to pop over to our Reviews section and let your fellow investors know what your experience has been like. Thanks!

Disclosure: Of the companies mentioned above, I own shares of Alphabet and Amazon. I will not trade in any covered stock for at least three days after publication, per Stock Gumshoe’s trading rules.

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53 Comments
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eb0079
July 8, 2020 12:39 pm

This is not really a “new” recommendation
Since shares took more than 38% already

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Paul
Paul
July 8, 2020 1:38 pm

Bloom Energy is not in the Strategic Trends portfolio as of the latest issue (July). So it’s a teaser being offered only to new subscribers. (Screw the regulars who are funding Alex Green’s social darwinism crusade with Bill O’Reilly.) Fessler’s new pick for July is Nvidia. His partner, Matthew Carr is touting Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS). Other holdings are: DOCU, WORK, LSCC, IMMU, MU, EHTH, DLR and GRMN.

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Erik
Member
Erik
July 8, 2020 10:11 pm
Reply to  Paul

Really going out on a limb w Nvidia haha

eb0079
July 8, 2020 1:38 pm

I paid my subscription 06/17/2020 and it was already there

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Thomas
Thomas
October 11, 2020 2:07 pm

June 16

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JayBee1
Guest
JayBee1
July 8, 2020 12:59 pm

125 million shares outstanding, and a little over half held by institutions, but short interest is almost 14 %. I remember reading once that Whitney Tilson thinks that short interest above a certain percentage (I think that he said over 5 %) is a red flag.

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fear index
fear index
July 19, 2020 2:30 pm
Reply to  JayBee1

Some traders see a lot of short positions can make for an explosive upside move when those shorts start to cover to avoid a margin call.

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aziazimi84
aziazimi84
December 21, 2020 4:31 pm
Reply to  JayBee1

I mean historically short interest has been a mix bagged. There have been times where Apple/Amazon were some of the highest shorted stocks or recently Tesla.

A stats without context are useless. You have to pay attention to the earnings and the trend in the specific industry. The green trend is definitely real and being pushed heavily by Joe Biden’s admin who wants to be carbon neutral by 2035, which is quicker than most Western countries, might be the quickest minus some small countries in Europe.

BE isn’t completely clean energy though and like Travis said their costs are still astronomic in a already capital intensive field.

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Old Guy
July 8, 2020 1:17 pm

I may have missed it, but when you spoke about Generac (GNRC), it should be mentioned that they’re aggressively moving into backup storage with something similar to TESLA’s power wall in addition to providing on demand back-up power. I’ve been along for the ride with GNRC and have been very happy with the results.

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Carbon Bigfoot
Guest
Carbon Bigfoot
July 8, 2020 5:31 pm
Reply to  Old Guy

Professor Emeritus of Physics, Howard Hayden, University of Connecticut and publishes “The Energy Advocate”. He will speak at the 38th Annual Doctors for Disaster Preparedness Aug.14-16 in Las Vegas. His topic is” The Energy Storage Delusion.” A tidbit from his website for Fairy Dust Dreamers that don’t understand thermodynamics or energy density:
http://www.energyadvocate.com/batts.htm

George Paul Holloway
Member
George Paul Holloway
August 12, 2020 1:45 pm
Reply to  Carbon Bigfoot

Look interesting. I’m interested what you infer from that table to which you’ve linked. Could you explain, please?

sashakavs
Member
sashakavs
December 26, 2020 3:45 am

it shows that gasoline energy density is 5 times bigger than that of the best batteries

tomtom73
Member
tomtom73
July 11, 2020 2:48 pm
Reply to  Old Guy

I live in Wisconsin so I have held Generac for years. It is a long term, dividend stock for me as that is the sort of stocks I buy, dividend aristocrats. I don’t look for moon shots, just steady stocks. I don’t back the “green” pipe dream as that is bogus and a big government wealth transfer deal as it looks to me.

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weetbix
Member
weetbix
July 12, 2020 3:45 am
Reply to  tomtom73

it says theres been insider trading and high level of debt, what do you think ? still a buy. is the debt funding a takeover or covering wages over covid

chris pflaum
Guest
chris pflaum
July 8, 2020 1:26 pm

The Bloom Box is essentially a generator, like the Generac. Unlike the Generac, it is designed to operate continuously. The Bloom Box’s primary competitor is solar cell arrays, at least in the residential and small commercial markets. When solar roofing tiles become available, Bloom is toast as solar uses no fuel and has minimal operating and maintenance expenses.

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Carbon Bigfoot
Guest
Carbon Bigfoot
July 9, 2020 6:55 am
Reply to  chris pflaum

” When solar roofing tiles become available Bloom is toast”……and solar tiles don’t work when THE SUN GOES DOWN—and Energy Storage is a delusion.
In fact Bloom’s fuel cell is designed to work as a MICRO-GRID incorporating solar arrays and other fairy dust alternatives in order to avoid disruptive interruptions, i.e., nighttime inactivity for solar and NO WIND for turbines. It is essentially designed for commercial operations and has an impressive list of SP 500 installations. The stock is traded, bought 1000 shares @$18 sold @$30. I’m in an out
options until there are sustain earnings and Bloom stays out of lawsuit like the one in Delaware. If you want to comment on these pages make sure you know the subject.
https://www.bloomenergy.com/solutions/advanced-applications/microgrid

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Carbon Bigfoot
Guest
Carbon Bigfoot
July 16, 2020 7:34 am
Reply to  Carbon Bigfoot

Yesterday 07/15/20 my BE position is up 35% on news of a South Korean joint venture utilizing hydrogen (H2) as a fuel source. Not sure this is sound engineering or chemistry since manufacturing hydrogen by current methods is not cost effective (net negative energy loss). As I mentioned above this stock has been traded making it a risky play. I hope the “Shorts” had their collective ass handed to them and maybe we can invest in this stock based on normal sound investment principles. Interesting turn of events. Travis maybe you can do your great detailed scoop on this in light of this new information.

George Paul Holloway
Member
George Paul Holloway
August 12, 2020 1:49 pm
Reply to  Carbon Bigfoot

What is delusional about energy storage in batteries? I have never heard anyone else say this before. I’d really like to hear more, as a lot of people are placing their hopes on wind and solar plus battery (and admittedly other kinds of non-chemical energy) storage.

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Rog
Member
Rog
July 8, 2020 2:47 pm

2 UK fuel cell companies are top notch.
ITM Power (LSE: ITM) shares have had a great run recently. Over the last three months, ITM Power’s share price has risen more than 150%. Over the last year, it’s surged around 800%.

After that kind of stunning performance, ITM Power shares are now getting plenty of attention. But is the AIM-listed stock worth buying today? Let’s take a look at the investment case.

What does ITM Power do?

ITM Power is a clean-fuel company that specialises in hydrogen energy solutions. Those solutions are designed to take excess energy from the power network, convert it into hydrogen, and then use this form of clean energy in a wide range of applications.

In October last year, the company entered into a 50/50 joint venture (JV) with multinational chemical company Linde – a world leader in industrial gases and engineering. This JV will focus on delivering green hydrogen to large-scale industrial projects.

Ceres Power Holdings (LON:CWR) Also a cracker.

ronwill
July 8, 2020 7:12 pm
Reply to  Rog

or ITMPF and CPWHF for OTC listings

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frostly
frostly
July 8, 2020 7:47 pm
Reply to  ronwill

Thanks I was searching for that.

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George Paul Holloway
Member
George Paul Holloway
August 12, 2020 1:58 pm
Reply to  Rog

If ITM is generating the hydrogen from excess electrity drawn from the grid, it wouldn’t necessarily be green, would it? Or when you speak of green hydrogen, are you referring to another aspect of their hydrogen generation? It sounds interesting!

ronwill
July 8, 2020 7:15 pm

One day someone will develop a power source that scrubs carbon from the atmosphere to the joy of the climate change crowd. Resulting in all of earths vegetation dying off…..

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jj1156
jj1156
July 9, 2020 3:12 am
Reply to  ronwill

What historians will definitely wonder about in future centuries is how deeply flawed logic, obscured by shrewd and unrelenting propaganda, actually enabled a coalition of powerful special interests to convince nearly everyone in the world that CO2 from human industry was a dangerous, planet-destroying toxin. It will be remembered as the greatest mass delusion in the history of the world – that CO2, the life of plants, was considered for a time to be a deadly poison.
Richard Lindzen

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Carbon Bigfoot
Guest
Carbon Bigfoot
July 27, 2020 4:21 pm
Reply to  jj1156

Met Richard Lindzen and discussed the failed CAGW in DC at the Third International Climate Change Conference ( ICCC-3 ) in June 2009. One of the all-stars of we skeptics. Join us at https://wattsupwiththat.com or at https://principia-scientific.org where real scientists meet. As a follow up to a previous post about Bloom Energy the Kraft Group is installing Bloom equipment at Gillette Stadium read about it https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200727005105/en/..

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justanothernewbie
Member
justanothernewbie
October 8, 2020 12:08 pm
Reply to  jj1156

Ah, there’s the Richard Lindzen straw-man argument. The claim by scientists is not that CO2 is a “planet-destroying toxin” or “deadly poison”, but that it is one of the greenhouse gases and that its relative abundance is higher than it would be if generated only by natural causes.
Calories are not a deadly poison; some amount are required for a person to live. But too many (i.e. just a few above the amount that the body can process) over an extended period of time causes problems, including malfunctioning of the body often leading to various causes of early death.
Most things in life are not “good” or “bad”, including CO2 – there is room for nuanced understanding of the climate system. A little bit of CO2 production above the ability of the Earth’s carbon sinks to process (“reabsorb”), over an extended period of time, ensures a gradual increase in the heat energy in the planet’s atmostphere. This would be true for any greenhouse gas. The logic is that we should expect average temperatures to increase against the baseline, and the data bears this expectation out. This is why we see virtual unanimity among scientists who aren’t taking money from fossil fuel companies (see Richard Lindzen – Peabody Energy).
The “unrelenting propaganda” from the fossil fuel industry is the primary engine driving otherwise normal, well-intentioned people to fetishize limited short-term wealth creation via maximized CO2 release at the cost of the long-term ecologically- and socioeconomically-healthy planetary environment that we would hope to pass on to our descendants. It is insanity.

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otradovec1
July 9, 2020 5:35 pm
Reply to  ronwill

they have some thing called silicon

samwiebaux
Guest
samwiebaux
July 13, 2020 7:22 pm
Reply to  ronwill

I ALREADY INVENTED THAT!

IT STARTS OFF WITH THIS AWFUL WAILING SOUND THAT BECOMES HIGHER PITCHED THE FASTER THE TURBINE TURNS THE VAINES OF THE MACHINE!

WE HAD A CRUDE ONE BACK IN 58, 59, BUT IT NEVER WORKED QUITE RIGHT AS THE SOUND OF THE WAILING WAS NEVER DROWNED OUT BY THE DEMONIC THUMP SOUND, FOLLOWED BY THE SUDDEN LACK OF OXYGEN AS THE MUSHROOM CLOUD RAKED THE SKIES WITH RADIOACTIVE, INSOMNIA INDUCING, LEFTIST WARNINGS OF ATOMIC ATTACKS!

Thomas
Thomas
October 11, 2020 2:21 pm
Reply to  samwiebaux

you are a total id

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George Paul Holloway
Member
George Paul Holloway
August 12, 2020 1:56 pm
Reply to  ronwill

Your comment doesn’t make sense to me. No one is going to remove all of the CO2 from the atmosphere. Who would be so stupid? The goal would be to reduce net CO2 emissions to a level that matches the carbon sink capacity of the planet (having first reduced by a faster rate, to reduce total levels back to safe levels). This sort of scrubbing is very difficult– there’s a good video on youtube by “Just have a think” about it which I recommend. It certainly can’t be relied on as a solution to climate change. A much better option is to decarbonise our energy use, reduce the impact of agriculture on ecosystems, and to reforest/rewild. I’d be interested to hear your response!

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timcoahran
Irregular
October 8, 2020 2:34 am

It would appear that the ronwill comment was not written by a chemist. The energy requirement for that idea would be cost prohibitive.

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beachwind
beachwind
December 18, 2020 10:27 am
Reply to  timcoahran

Trees are made of air. Scrubbing carbon from the atmosphere.

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Don
Member
Don
October 7, 2020 12:51 pm
Reply to  ronwill

There is an lternative, all green. Go see the documentary “The Need To Grow”. You can find it free to view online.

ronwill
January 13, 2021 7:30 pm
Reply to  ronwill
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frostly
frostly
July 8, 2020 7:33 pm

Thanks for this . It looks like shares of fuel cell and alternative fuel companies are on the rise. Poor oil and gas cant seem to catch a break. I confess I already bought some PLUG FCEL SOLO out of FOMO.

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3864
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3865
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vogliar
Irregular
October 7, 2020 11:27 am

I purchased Ceres here in the Uk and it has been a great purchase with them having really good tie ups with big companies

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2624
Howard Talesnick
Howard Talesnick
October 7, 2020 11:49 am

You wrote: “I’m a little surprised that Bloom didn’t have a bigger surge in revenue over the past few years, with the California wildfires and huge disaster seasons really pushing companies and homeowners to find energy security from off-grid solutions”
That is not Bloom’s market. Bloom makes large fuel cells used by utility companies not small vehicle sized
cells. And, I am not sure that any fuel cell company makes units that compete with Generac in home backup
systems….could be a unit cost issue.

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SageNot
Guest
SageNot
October 7, 2020 11:52 am

$10 Travis? BE hit a yearly high today!!!

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BE?p=BE

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realitybytez
Member
realitybytez
October 27, 2020 7:49 pm

and now back down to $15.42. hope everyone sold at $22.

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mer1950
mer1950
October 7, 2020 3:51 pm

BE did not come out as a recommendation in Strategic Trends portfolio. David Fessler wrote article on company end of June. Sent to subscribers in between monthly issues. I bought at $8.40 and is now $21.44 as I write so I am pleased.

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andysurg
October 7, 2020 11:45 pm
Reply to  mer1950

Made a few Ks on this/his s reco too 🙂

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simplysebass
simplysebass
October 8, 2020 2:30 am

I still think it’s CleanSpark that will dominate the grid industry with their patented software. They have acquired GridFabric which gives them the ability to compete with utility companies. GridFabric is an OpenADR compliance and certification company. They have also entered the EV charging station space through gridfabric where they will provide software solutions that will help manage the load and balance the impact the increased power demand has on the traditional grid. They have acquired contracts with 2 of the EV charging station companies out there and more proposals are in the works. Why CleanSpark and not other microgrid companies? Because their software (SaaS) is not only patented but it allows for their clients to retain their current infrastructure while using their product. This makes their product more convenient and affordable. like most other companies, the existing grid or equipment would need to be torn down and replaced with the new product being sold to them. With CleanSpark that wouldn’t be necessary. CleanSpark also has their own equipment acquired from PPSI – Pioneer Power Solutions.

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Clean Energy
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Electric Vehicle Charging Stations
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SaaS
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Corri
Guest
Corri
October 8, 2020 12:14 pm
Reply to  simplysebass

Please read the post at Seeking Alpha that puts a glaring spotlight on this company’s dire predicament. And, beware of CLSK undercover marketing tactics before you espouse their worthiness. Here’s the scoop on this failing business: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4378122-cleanspark-is-failed-business-roll-up-in-vicious-court-battle-largest-shareholder-3-price

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3551
simplysebass
simplysebass
October 14, 2020 12:43 pm
Reply to  Corri

Seeking Alpha is not a reliable website

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3551
Xoomoon
Irregular
December 9, 2020 8:10 am
Reply to  simplysebass

Yeah, SA is garbage. they trashed $bigc and if you post your opinion about the positive things about it, they delete you.

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11283
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simplysebass
simplysebass
October 14, 2020 12:55 pm
Reply to  Corri

If you scroll all the way down, Discover Fund and this Kirkland guy have been in a lot of lawsuits with many different companies. It’s not entirely CLSKs fault. This guy Kirkland thinks he’s entitled to stuff he’s not entitled to and goes to court every time. He is a scumbag that has left many stocks in ruin it has nothing to do with the companies ability to succeed. CLSK is making moves and has a lot going for them acquiring smaller businesses to establish themselves as a potential utilities company.

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Last edited 3 years ago by simplysebass
jeremyjohn
Member
jeremyjohn
December 19, 2020 1:57 am

I remember reading the book “The Ballard Fuel Cell – Race to Change the World” nearly twenty years ago. It’s amazing how little fuel cell technology has changed in that time. You have to wonder, how much labor and capital has been wasted on this should-be-extinct technology? Fuel cells make economic sense in an ever dwindling niche of applications, and they surely will never make sense in commercial or passenger vehicles.

But don’t take my word for it. Heck, ignore history if you want. But do check out what Elon Musk has to say about fuel cells.

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Valer
Guest
Valer
February 27, 2021 4:13 pm

Travis, thanks a million for sharing your analysis.
It’s funny and irresponsible this pitch is still being emailed nowadays without even being changed, at least to reflect the current context.

Eric G Fine
Guest
Eric G Fine
June 23, 2021 3:02 pm

Great Review – Thank you- Just saw a video tout today for this by Fessler.
Another article by Forbes that is not so rosy, “The Forbes Investigation: How Bloom Energy Blew Through Billions Promising Cheap, Green Tech That Falls Short” can be found here Feb 13, 2020

https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2020/02/13/the-forbes-investigation-how-bloom-energy-blew-through-billions-promising-cheap-green-tech-that-falls-short/

This still could be a good stock trade but has some work to be a profitable company or an actual useful green solution.

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