Casey: “March 31, 2018: New Legal Ruling Will Send Gold Higher Than Bitcoin”

What's this "surging gold" pitch from E.B. Tucker and the Casey Report all about?

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, March 15, 2018

Casey Research is out with a new Casey Report teaser ad about gold, and it’s strikingly similar to one that they ran back in November of 2016 (that’s about a year and a half ago, for those who are calendar-challenged).

Which is no big surprise — once a newsletter publisher finds a theme and a hook that work to get investors’ attention, they stick with it. Sometimes they even keep running the same ad every couple months for years with nary an edit (I’m looking at you, Motley Fool), but more likely they just come back to a very similar theme in future pitches.

And that seems to be the case here — “circle this date on your calendar” because that’s the day this mysterious event (that only we know about and understand!) is going to send the price of gold soaring.

Back in late 2016, it was the new adjustment to Shariah law that had Casey’s knickers twisted up — he thought that would be the cause of gold soaring to $5,000 starting on December 31.

And now, it’s March 31… with a couple catalysts around that date, mostly related to the expectation that the large Indian and Chinese gold markets will begin to demand more gold.

Here’s what E.B. Tucker said last time around, in the Casey Report ads back in November, 2016 (I wrote about it here, but Tucker also had some free articles with the same focus at the time):

“… there’s another urgent gold catalyst that you’re NOT hearing from the financial media.

“One that almost certainly will drive gold to $5,000 and beyond.

“And I know precisely when this will happen.

“In short, a new law going into effect by the end of 2016 could send shockwaves through the gold market.

“I’m talking about…

“A ‘gold law’ that impacts 1.6 billion people… 32 major central banks…

“And 112 billionaires…

“A legal ruling that could send them all into a gold buying frenzy… the likes of which we’ve never seen before.”

That was following gold’s move from about $1,000 an ounce to $1,350 in 2016, which was certainly a lively year for gold stocks. Fast forward a bit, though, and we see that despite that “almost certain” move to $5,000 and beyond that was promoted, gold actually spent more time below $1,300 than above it over the past year and a half or so. Today it’s around $1,325, so if you found that Sharia law presentation compelling and think it’s just a matter of time, well, you haven’t missed anything yet.

And, P.S., it’s really hard to predict catalysts that will move whole segments of the market.

So yes, E.B. Tucker says that “My Firm Has Accurately Predicted EVERY Major Gold Move in the Last Half-Century” — and, to be fair, that could be true… it’s just that they’ve also predicted at least this one gold move that didn’t happen, too.

I can’t pass on just a little snarkiness here: If you predict a major move in gold every few months, as seems to be the case for many of the newsletter pundits, odds are pretty good that you’re going to catch most of the actual big moves in the gold price and be “right” about those moves. Economists predict lots of recessions that don’t happen, gold bugs predict bull markets that don’t happen. C’est la vie.

The ad indicates that Doug Casey predicted big moves upward in gold in 1970, 1999, and 2009 and bought it and urged his readers to do so as well, right before major moves in the gold price — though I have no idea how many other times Casey recommended or “pounded the table” on gold over the past 50 years.

But now the catalyst that’s proposed (or promised, it might seem) is that India and China will be sucking up even more physical gold… largely thanks to their gold exchanges that will require actual gold backing for all trading.

That gets rid of the major complaint of gold bugs about the Comex gold futures trading (which really sets the global gold price and represents a large amount of what people think of as “gold” trading) — that Comex doesn’t have nearly enough gold on deposit to back up those futures contracts, so that “paper gold” isn’t nearly as valuable as physical gold in the event of catastrophe… and, if you believe the conspiracy talk, is regularly manipulated by JP Morgan and the other major banks who participate in the gold futures market because they want to keep prices under control (silver, too, but we’re talking about gold today).

So now, in 2018, the promise is eerily similar to that 2016 pitch…

“March 31, 2018: New Legal Ruling Will Send Gold Higher Than Bitcoin…..

“You see, there’s an overlooked catalyst that’s poised to ignite the gold market, sending the ancient metal soaring past the price of bitcoin.

“And I know precisely when this will happen.

“By March 31, a new law will go into effect that sends shockwaves through the gold market.

“I’m talking about a new gold law that impacts…

“1.3 Billion People

“$1.1 TRILLION in Wealth

“And 82 Billionaires

“A legal ruling that could send them all into a gold buying frenzy… the likes of which we’ve never seen before.

“And you have just days to make a move, or miss out on the gold buying opportunity of a lifetime.”

And the $5,000 prediction isn’t enough any more, apparently, they have to up their game…

“… you’ll want to use another obscure gold trade unknown to most of the investing public.

“A trade that could return 27 TIMES more than simply holding bullion.

“That means if I’m right and gold soars to $10,000, most gold investors will see 8 times their money.

“Don’t get me wrong. That’s pretty solid. Especially in just a few months’ time.

“But if you use this type of gold trade, which historically has shown astronomical returns, you could instead make 200 times your money (or more).”

And they use a quote from Doug Casey that I’ve seen several times about this “secret” gold investment…

“According to Doug…

‘[This Gold Play] is About to Create a Whole New Class of Millionaires’

“But if you don’t want to miss out on the gold profit opportunity of the decade, you must take action now…

“Before this ‘gold law’ goes into effect…

“Before 1.3 billion people begin a gold buying frenzy…

“And before a TRILLION-DOLLAR tidal wave of cash disrupts the gold market.

“All of which is set to happen beginning March 31.”

So what is that big catalyst in India? Tucker says it’s a new physical metals exchange…

“India’s gold obsession actually hurts the economy.

“That’s because gold has zero productive value. It creates no jobs or consumer demand. It contributes nothing to economy.

“Yet most Indians refuse to trade their precious metals for cash, especially with a constant inflation.

“So the Indian government came up with a solution.

“A way to bring all of India’s gold wealth out of hiding—without taxes or confiscation—allowing Indians to generate capital for their gold, without actually losing possession.

“The answer?

“A gold price exchange, one that allows investors to buy and sell gold investments.

“And it’s backed by REAL physical gold bullion!

“By March 31, this Indian government will announce this new exchange, unleashing a new flood of gold into the market for the first time ever.”

The other two catalysts of note are the Chinese gold exchange, which is also requiring physical backing, and which is part of China’s effort to dominate the gold market — including their requirement that all gold mined in China be sold to the government and kept in China…

And the oft-cited (including back in 2016) catalyst that “peak gold” has arrived, because we’re no longer finding as many huge discoveries… and because exploration dollars dried up with the lack of financing in 2008 and with the collapse in gold prices a few years later, so the pipeline of new mines is not being refilled. Which is generally true, most analysts estimate that world gold supply has declined over the past two years and will continue to decline, though not all agree on whether the decline will be dramatic or precipitous.

Production, of course, is heavily influenced by price — if the price of gold surges to $2,000, there will be a heckuva lot more gold produced over the next few years as mines work more aggressively to expand or maximize production, and if it falls to $1,000 and stays there, production will drop sharply because a bunch of mines will shut down because they can’t be profitable at those prices.

So perhaps those things will be catalysts for the price of gold, though the March 31 date is not particularly “magical” and is probably in there more because newsletter ads need an imminent deadline in order to get your attention — India is trying to start up a network of spot gold exchanges, and it’s possible that they could be rolling the first one out as soon as April, but I wouldn’t bet the house on India’s bureaucracy moving rapidly… or on it having an immediate impact (and the conventional press is being much more cautious, as noted by the Bloomberg headline back in September that “India May Have a Spot Gold Exchange in 12 to 18 Months”).

It takes time to build a marketplace and build trust and get people to use it, and India is even working to some degree with the World Gold Council, which makes the gold bugs so very happy… so India remains a big part of the global gold consumption market, but I’d be wary about betting on the impact that will bring to the gold price on any given date.

But anyway, do we learn anything about what specifically Casey is touting?

Not really. The ad simply cites that there’s this “27X” opportunity if you buy gold in the right way, and that’s clearly a reference to buying speculative gold mining and exploration stocks — mostly “junior gold” stocks, but he doesn’t reference or hint at any specific ideas.

The only individual stock that Tucker and Casey hinted at back in the Fall of 2016, in the previous iteration of this pitch, was Northern Dynasty Minerals (NAK), which was certainly one of the more interesting stories at the time thanks to Donald Trump’s election win and their progress in the courts against the EPA (I speculated on it at the time, too, though am no longer invested in Northern Dynasty), but this time there are no hints dropped at all.

We do know about at least one stock that E.B. Tucker likes, so perhaps we can think of that as a starting point… that’s Metalla Royalty & Streaming (MTA.V in Toronto, MTAFF OTC in the US), a startup gold/silver royalty and streaming company that was effectively launched last year from the shell of what had been Excalibur Resources. E.B. Tucker is on the board of that company, and Casey holds shares along with some other newsletter-connected folks (like Adrian Day in Canada).

This is a little guy, but it’s not completely irrationally priced — and they do have a couple royalty deals that are actually producing cash right now, which is good to see in a very small company… though we should note that silver is the major driver of Metalla’s cash flow, not gold, and we’re now getting to the point that the royalty business is attracting a lot of capital and seems like it might be getting to be a “crowded trade” after the relative success that the big royalty companies have shown. It’s harder to build a royalty company now because it’s hard to buy meaningful deals without either taking risk or paying too much.

Part of the justification that Metalla makes for its own expectations about share price appreciation is that Metalla trades at a substantially lower multiple to cash flow than other early-stage cash-flowing royalty companies, of which there are very few — but they call out Maverix Metals (MMX.V, MACIF) as one comparable that is priced at a much higher cash flow multiple than Metalla, and that’s true. Maverix is in my Real Money Portfolio, and Metalla, at least on the surface, appeals to me for much the same reason Maverix did when I bought a few shares back in June.

Metalla should have substantial cash flow this year, mostly from the Endeavor Silver stream that they bought from Coeur in their large company-launching transaction last summer — so there should be roughly $4 million in net revenue coming just from that deal if silver stays near current prices, and they have other projects that are just about to start up… but the largest risk seems to be that Endeavor has only another year or so left on its mine plan after 2018, which is why they could buy this cash-flowing royalty (in a package of other royalties) for only $13 million last summer (mostly in shares, no less).

So the risk with that headline asset is that the royalty could dry up unless they expand the reserves and set a new plan for more mining. They probably will, and Endeavor’s owner CBH Resources has been exploring the surrounding area to boost reserves so they can continue to exploit the infrastructure resources in place at Endeavor… but that’s not a promise or a guarantee.

If it does work out well, Metalla is promising to distribute a lot of their cash flow — they pay a monthly dividend that’s currently small but measurable, paying about a 2% yield right now, but they say the goal is to pay out half of their operating cash flow, so it could grow substantially if these early royalties they’ve acquired work out (it could even reach 4-5% this year, if Endeavor meets expectations and they don’t blow a lot of cash on other costs) … though, on the flip side, that dividend policy also means they will not be able to grow revenue per share as quickly, since over time that dividend policy means they won’t have as much cash to reinvest in new streaming deals. You can see Metalla’s investor presentation here if you’d like to start looking into this one.

So… that’s perhaps worthy of some time to investigate, though I doubt it’s actually being recommended by the Casey Report (not sure whether Tucker is allowed to recommend stocks he owns, or where he sits on the board, and this one might also be too small for a large newsletter to cover).

What else might be a “27X your money” speculation from Doug Casey and E.B. Tucker? Do you think India’s nascent gold exchanges will change gold pricing this year? I’ll leave it to you to throw your suggestions and opinions on the pile… have a directional argument to make, or an appealing junior gold stock you see? Let us know with a comment below.


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48 Comments on "Casey: “March 31, 2018: New Legal Ruling Will Send Gold Higher Than Bitcoin”"

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Bosco Hurn
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0

Casey, Stansberry, Doody………as a gold bug I have subscribed to them in the past. They all remind me of this wonderful song by Tom Waits: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGShQsxiy1c

saint stephen
Irregular
60

I’m guessing the lyric is send money, guns and drugs the shit has hit the fan.? Tom Waits nails it with his lyrics.

Aaron Hayson
Guest
0
HAHAHA. Oh man so true. I have been following Casey since 2000. Made a lot of money between 2000 – 2011 in Virginia gold, Yamana, CDE, Allied Neveda, etc about 10x my money. I got out of most of those for profits except Allied Nevada I rode that crap down to the bottom, very stupid. His recent picks just go down everyday. I really thought Gold had begun a new bull market cycle in 2016 and it would sell off and give us a chance to get in, ie the 2017 drift lower. It is just a slow grind lower… Read more »
wikiwiki
Member
5

That’s funny…and I agree about Stansberry–just stay away. Thanks for your comments about Casey, that’s who’s ad I was just reading. “The entire world is going to collapse” pretty soon….

gthorne
Irregular
24
Yet another pitch for gold, which comes up from the goldbugs on what seems to be a fairly regular basis– and with a whole lot of speculation. I have a little gold in the form of investment grade coins, but that’s it. No more mining stocks for me. Better by far for me has been the world of investment grade silver coins, especially Morgan and Peace dollars, Silver Eagles, and lots of the wonderful, unique silver coins the Canadian Mint makes in very limited mintages. I never thought that Superman and Bugs Bunny and the other Warner Brothers characters would… Read more »
orphan brigade
Member
4

I have a question, what makes the investment grade silver coins more valuable than just buying ounces of pure silver ? For anyone that would care to respond. It seems an ounce of gold or silver is just regardless who mints it…

saint stephen
Irregular
60

On Pawn stars a guy brought in a bar of silver he got from an ad in Money magazine. It wasn’t silver! Buyer beware.

wikiwiki
Member
5

People trust them more than bars….due to counterfeiting.

yukonjack
Guest
0
These guys have so many different things they are pushing that for sure they are just guessing. Nothing is going to happen on March 31st that will make a difference. If there were, gold would already be heading higher. Casey has no inside info that wouldn’t be known by others. They have been pitching gold for the last 10 years, we saw a high of $1900, and nothing over the last 6 years. If gold was back down to $200-300, then it would be a real bargain. Like most commodities, these things are very long term and barring a super-duper… Read more »
BajaPete
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0

I would trust a India gold exchange as much as the Rupee as a world currency.

glomerulus
Irregular
13

Gee, it seems to me that if the Indian government succeeds in getting the populace to start buying and selling each others’ gold jewelry, flooding the market with new gold, that is, increasing the supply but not necessarily the demand, will cause the price of gold to drop. Simple suppy vs. demand, right? If i’m wrong, I’d appreciate someone telling me why.

JayBee
Guest
0
My sentiments exactly. I couldn’t have said it any better. How do you flood a market with a product and then have the price of that product skyrocket? Does anyone have an example of this happening ever, anywhere? Does anyone remember collector’s plates? I love those things, and I used to collect wildlife-themed plates back in their heyday in the 80s. I was paying $20 to $25 each for them as they came out, and lots of them had edition sizes that were “strictly limited to orders received during a 90 day firing period.” Hah! They could make over a… Read more »
Hubie337
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0
I would assume that the exchange would be regulated so only physical / certified forms of gold are exchanged like American Eagles or Canadian Maples Leafs. Making it easier to buy and sell gold could make the price go up but it can just as easily make it go down. I would think the real change would be price volatility would increase since transactions would be much easier and faster. I do like the idea of PHYSICAL gold being exchanged. I have often wondered how gold ETFs like GLD actually track the price of gold and if there is a… Read more »
saint stephen
Irregular
60

I’ve read where there isn’t enough gold to satisfy demand, especially during a crisis. History tells us that gold mining stocks can skyrocket during an economic collapse. It’s speculative, but fortunes are made with contrarian investing. Since I have my mortgage paid off, enjoy a good income, and a fairly secure pension, I consider gold a timely speculative play.

Guest
Guest
0

Thanks so much your information and advise is always the one I trust

coolsoupy
Irregular
16

I guess it is more profitable to sell subscriptions than actually invest in your ideas?
If they were as good as what the espouse they wouldn’t have to go to work everyday (except to get out of the house).

Scotsmanaught
Guest
0
Let’s see. Jim Richards often talks about Gold being driven higher…crypto-currencies are on the rise…the dollar could fall soon…the government is ready to take our money when it defaults..and we must hedge NOW to protect ourselves. This could be seen as a bet that the ‘sky is falling’…I am not going to bet on the West falling just yet. Hedging is a fine strategy at times, but there are much better bets in the market place, and anxiety is NOT the best one to bank on, yet. Besides, the President is going to negotiate with North Korea to make our… Read more »
running
Irregular
3
i have been signed up with casey for some time. what i see going on is recommending buying mining stocks and other things that are undervalued and with patience will go back up. for example cameco. with patience more than likely you can make big profits when something is beaten down that bad and has to to back up. if we wish to continue living the way we do. there is a couple of cannabis stocks. not an undervalued commodity but history rhymes. everybody remembers what happend after prohibition. spirits came back in a big way. anybody with a few… Read more »
emidave
Irregular
1

Someday they will be right. even a stopped clock tells the right time twice a day.

running
Irregular
3

lol. true. on a positive not if its a matter of when and not if you win.

LE
Irregular
0

That’s even a broken clock is right twice a day

laa0709
Irregular
52
Thanks once again Travis – it is so comforting that we know that we can take at face valuer what you say. A large amount of publication is currently emerging on gold and the anticipate direction thereof. Indicators do point to some form of breakout of some of the precious metals. My personal take: * If you are a collector consider coins, bars and other forms of physical bullion. * If you are an investor consider established gold ETF’s or established gold stocks. * If you are trader consider emerging gold miners, there are some attractive ones (from Canada as… Read more »
cape town
Member
0

Could you recommend some silver small cap miners on NYSE that have massive reserves of silver.

George
Irregular
9

My gold / silver mining advisor says CDE is solid, which I own. PAAS also is but a bit richly valued.

wowflower
Irregular
4

The only ones I know holding massive amounts of Silver are Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. Not small cap miners just major holders.

catmann
Member
11

A pure Jr. miner gold play?…
I just nibbled at (NUG.V) NULGF, NuLegacy Gold Corp.
Canadian, in a proven north central Nevada location, successful ex-Barrick management (Alex Davidson) and partially owned by Barrick and OceanaGold (27% between them)
For a company with a good track record for finding gold since 2009 their numbers are…bleak. Still they are my current and only pure gold number on the Roulette wheel of the Jr. mining world…currently @ .14 what could
go wrong?

Les
Guest
0

Gold and silver prices will remain low as long as the big gold buyers (BANKS ETC.) are stockpiling gold and silver. They will keep the prices manipulated and low until the dollar is devalued and the price of precious metals skyrocket. Keep buying gold and silver while these bargains last.

jvsaputo7
Member
18
These Gents along with James Rickards push gold and I am one who has learned his sorry lesson. Rickards was so sure the end of money was coming in the fall of 2017 he had a Penny Gold stock portfolio pitch with his Geologist on board that looks like Barney from the Fred and the Flintstones. I enrolled and did not read the fine print…no refunds. $1700. Gold got slammed and I lost $16000 before I sold out. I still believe in gold stocks but only a small percent of my portfolio and most of that being in billion dollar… Read more »
orphan brigade
Guest
0

Thanks for reinforcement about that these scammers and are only concerned about taking money. Sorry to about that loss of hard earned money, I truly believe people who engage in deceptive ways will bear the poisoned fruit in the end..Best of luck..

Aaron Hayson
Guest
0

Excellent POST!!

saint stephen
Guest
0

Lombardi is predicting an economic collapse, saying toysrus is just the tip of the iceberg. My gold mine stock of preference is Midas gold, trading at .74 a share, up from .50 not long ago. I’ve also purchased emergency rations from wise. Not that it will save me. I do ten hours of dialysis a day and no electricity will kill me in two weeks. I want to take care of my family in case I check out this year. More people are on welfare than are working so people will be desperate.

saint stephen
Irregular
60

This is off topic but what is the stock Mike Robinson is pitching with some safety device all truckers will have to use or something he expects to make millionaires by April 1st? April fool?

Gr8Full!
Irregular
10912
saint stephen
Irregular
60

Thank you, Gr8full. Just read Midas gold predicts a 12-15 year life and extraction costs of $600 an ounce. Price and shareholder volume is up.

mark caminker
Guest
0

the us. dollar will soon, again, be backed by gold. trump promised, for whatever that’s worth. wnen? by march 31, 2018. rickards says so, also

jbnaples
Irregular
49
I think I’ll stick with (SAND). Smart management, growing portfolio, future catalyst coming from Turkey and a lot of irons in the fire as far as exploration companies if gold were to start moving up as predicted. For less than $5 a share currently and the potential to become another Royal Gold (RGLD) currently $80 pps I think Sandstorm Gold is a pretty safe investment with a lot of potential for great returns even if gold stays where it is today. If something crazy happens with gold soaring higher, it only gets better faster. Good luck to all my fellow… Read more »
George
Guest
0

Agree, SAND and BTG are solid small-cap gold miner picks.

BajaPete
Guest
0
Gold selling tip: If you’re in Los Angeles go to SA Refining at 640 S Hill, Suite 755 with your hoard of used gold jewelry, artifacts, etc. They will melt your stash into a gold nugget or bar for $40 up to 1000 grams and for an additional $20 they will assay it (state in writing the percentage of gold along with the weight). Then you walk across the hall and sell it at the spot price for gold for cash. No need to remove small stones either as they are vaporized in the process. No questions asked or info… Read more »
Jack ONeal
Guest
0

Might want to take a look at Midas Gold. Reworking an old mine in Idaho. First report said 4 million ounces. Last report said over 20 million ,to ne an open pit mine. Gold close to the surface, From a guy hawking his newsletter.

jrlowelljr
Irregular
3

Midas Gold is appreciating well for me, as is Lundin Gold. Both came from Agora’s gold portfolio, most of which hit stops …

jrlowelljr
Irregular
3

Oops, that should have been Stansberry’s gold portfolio.

saint stephen
Irregular
60

I just watched Casey Research’s latest pitch. It’s not bad, $99 for two years of their letter. Basically, it says the elites are going to ban bitcoin and replace with their digital buck worldwide. It ends up pitching junior minor gold stocks and ways to hide your wealth from a predicted wealth tax and/or negative interest rates. I get that kind of advice already so I didn’t buy it. It does predict a few speculative plays on the new technology.

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