Casey Research is out with a new Casey Report teaser ad about gold, and it’s strikingly similar to one that they ran back in November of 2016 (that’s about a year and a half ago, for those who are calendar-challenged).
Which is no big surprise — once a newsletter publisher finds a theme and a hook that work to get investors’ attention, they stick with it. Sometimes they even keep running the same ad every couple months for years with nary an edit (I’m looking at you, Motley Fool), but more likely they just come back to a very similar theme in future pitches.
And that seems to be the case here — “circle this date on your calendar” because that’s the day this mysterious event (that only we know about and understand!) is going to send the price of gold soaring.
Back in late 2016, it was the new adjustment to Shariah law that had Casey’s knickers twisted up — he thought that would be the cause of gold soaring to $5,000 starting on December 31.
And now, it’s March 31… with a couple catalysts around that date, mostly related to the expectation that the large Indian and Chinese gold markets will begin to demand more gold.
“… there’s another urgent gold catalyst that you’re NOT hearing from the financial media.
“One that almost certainly will drive gold to $5,000 and beyond.
“And I know precisely when this will happen.
“In short, a new law going into effect by the end of 2016 could send shockwaves through the gold market.
“I’m talking about…
“A ‘gold law’ that impacts 1.6 billion people… 32 major central banks…
“And 112 billionaires…
“A legal ruling that could send them all into a gold buying frenzy… the likes of which we’ve never seen before.”
That was following gold’s move from about $1,000 an ounce to $1,350 in 2016, which was certainly a lively year for gold stocks. Fast forward a bit, though, and we see that despite that “almost certain” move to $5,000 and beyond that was promoted, gold actually spent more time below $1,300 than above it over the past year and a half or so. Today it’s around $1,325, so if you found that Sharia law presentation compelling and think it’s just a matter of time, well, you haven’t missed anything yet.
And, P.S., it’s really hard to predict catalysts that will move whole segments of the market.
So yes, E.B. Tucker says that “My Firm Has Accurately Predicted EVERY Major Gold Move in the Last Half-Century” — and, to be fair, that could be true… it’s just that they’ve also predicted at least this one gold move that didn’t happen, too.
I can’t pass on just a little snarkiness here: If you predict a major move in gold every few months, as seems to be the case for many of the newsletter pundits, odds are pretty good that you’re going to catch most of the actual big moves in the gold price and be “right” about those moves. Economists predict lots of recessions that don’t happen, gold bugs predict bull markets that don’t happen. C’est la vie.
The ad indicates that Doug Casey predicted big moves upward in gold in 1970, 1999, and 2009 and bought it and urged his readers to do so as well, right before major moves in the gold price — though I have no idea how many other times Casey recommended or “pounded the table” on gold over the past 50 years.
But now the catalyst that’s proposed (or promised, it might seem) is that India and China will be sucking up even more physical gold… largely thanks to their gold exchanges that will require actual gold backing for all trading.
That gets rid of the major complaint of gold bugs about the Comex gold futures trading (which really sets the global gold price and represents a large amount of what people think of as “gold” trading) — that Comex doesn’t have nearly enough gold on deposit to back up those futures contracts, so that “paper gold” isn’t nearly as valuable as physical gold in the event of catastrophe… and, if you believe the conspiracy talk, is regularly manipulated by JP Morgan and the other major banks who participate in the gold futures market because they want to keep prices under control (silver, too, but we’re talking about gold today).
So now, in 2018, the promise is eerily similar to that 2016 pitch…
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“March 31, 2018: New Legal Ruling Will Send Gold Higher Than Bitcoin…..
“You see, there’s an overlooked catalyst that’s poised to ignite the gold market, sending the ancient metal soaring past the price of bitcoin.
“And I know precisely when this will happen.
“By March 31, a new law will go into effect that sends shockwaves through the gold market.
“I’m talking about a new gold law that impacts…
“1.3 Billion People
“$1.1 TRILLION in Wealth
“And 82 Billionaires
“A legal ruling that could send them all into a gold buying frenzy… the likes of which we’ve never seen before.
“And you have just days to make a move, or miss out on the gold buying opportunity of a lifetime.”
And the $5,000 prediction isn’t enough any more, apparently, they have to up their game…
“… you’ll want to use another obscure gold trade unknown to most of the investing public.
“A trade that could return 27 TIMES more than simply holding bullion.
“That means if I’m right and gold soars to $10,000, most gold investors will see 8 times their money.
“Don’t get me wrong. That’s pretty solid. Especially in just a few months’ time.
“But if you use this type of gold trade, which historically has shown astronomical returns, you could instead make 200 times your money (or more).”
And they use a quote from Doug Casey that I’ve seen several times about this “secret” gold investment…
“According to Doug…
‘[This Gold Play] is About to Create a Whole New Class of Millionaires’
“But if you don’t want to miss out on the gold profit opportunity of the decade, you must take action now…
“Before this ‘gold law’ goes into effect…
“Before 1.3 billion people begin a gold buying frenzy…
“And before a TRILLION-DOLLAR tidal wave of cash disrupts the gold market.
“All of which is set to happen beginning March 31.”
So what is that big catalyst in India? Tucker says it’s a new physical metals exchange…
“India’s gold obsession actually hurts the economy.
“That’s because gold has zero productive value. It creates no jobs or consumer demand. It contributes nothing to economy.
“Yet most Indians refuse to trade their precious metals for cash, especially with a constant inflation.
“So the Indian government came up with a solution.
“A way to bring all of India’s gold wealth out of hiding—without taxes or confiscation—allowing Indians to generate capital for their gold, without actually losing possession.
“A gold price exchange, one that allows investors to buy and sell gold investments.
“And it’s backed by REAL physical gold bullion!
“By March 31, this Indian government will announce this new exchange, unleashing a new flood of gold into the market for the first time ever.”
The other two catalysts of note are the Chinese gold exchange, which is also requiring physical backing, and which is part of China’s effort to dominate the gold market — including their requirement that all gold mined in China be sold to the government and kept in China…
And the oft-cited (including back in 2016) catalyst that “peak gold” has arrived, because we’re no longer finding as many huge discoveries… and because exploration dollars dried up with the lack of financing in 2008 and with the collapse in gold prices a few years later, so the pipeline of new mines is not being refilled. Which is generally true, most analysts estimate that world gold supply has declined over the past two years and will continue to decline, though not all agree on whether the decline will be dramatic or precipitous.
Production, of course, is heavily influenced by