The steady thirst for 5G fortunes is far from being slaked, it appears — pretty much all publishers have some tried some kind of promotion to convince us that they have the best and most lucrative idea for investing in the next upgrade cycle in mobile telecom… and today we’re looking at the latest spiel from Stephen Leeb, who has been a newsletter guy for decades and is currently peddling subscriptions to his The Complete Investor letter ($39/yr) by hinting at a “5G savior.”
Here’s a little taste of the ad:
“The impact 5G will have on the world will be every bit as transformational as the combustion engine, the light bulb, the personal computer, and the Internet.
“Maybe even all those inventions combined.
“But before any of that can happen…
“There’s a devastating 5G technology flaw the telecom industry needs to overcome….
“One of 5G’s greatest features is that it can send and receive data at speeds up to 100 times faster than 4G.
“5G can do this because it’s using a higher and faster range of the Radio Frequency spectrum… between 30 and 300 Gigahertz.
“Because they have a very small wavelength, signals in this range are called “millimeter waves” or mmWaves.
“But compared to 4G signals, mmWaves are 90-pound weaklings.
“A brand-new, high-speed, high capacity 5G antenna can only transmit a wireless signal just a little over 500 yards.
“Plus, if there’s an obstacle like a wall, a car, or even the leaves of a tree sitting between the antenna and your phone… no 5G for you.”
If you’ve been seeing the 5G hype over the past year or two, this is no surprise to you — yes, 5G is probably going to forever work in concert with 4G because it’s not going to be possible to cover every inch of the world with an antenna and base station every couple hundred yards… but in areas of high intensity data use, or where low latency is particularly valuable, there are several ways of beam-forming and antenna location that are hopefully going to provide something like 5G coverage in most urban areas.
So what’s the solution that this little $5 stock has come up with? more from Leeb:
“I’ll also tell you about the company I’ve uncovered that has single-handedly developed the solution.
“When regular investors discover the information I’m going to share with you today… the company with the $5 stock price and trillion-dollar solution…
“They’ll start loading up on shares faster than a Ferrari on the Audubon.
“Which means, if you follow my simple instructions today, you could quickly find yourself sitting on $117,385… $234,770… or even as much as $469,540… depending on how much you invest.”
OK, that was mostly just hype — if you want to be “sitting on $117,385” anytime soon, I hope you’re starting with $100,000 (that’s not what Leeb promises, just a rational assessment — he says that “the information in this report could help you turn $5,000 into $117,385 or more over the next 12 months,” which is close to being insane) … but let’s get to the hints about these solutions to the “devastating flaw”…
“The $5 “5G Savior” plans to solve the 5G Flaw in two very different ways.
“Fix #1: The Brute Force Approach
“If a 5G signal can only travel a few hundred yards from the nearest cell tower antenna, the surest way to increase its reach is… you guessed it… Install more antennas….
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just click here...“For 5G to offer similar coverage, a network of ‘repeater’ or ‘small cell’ antennas needs to be installed every 1,000 feet or so…..
“For 5G to offer the same level of signal strength and reliability, cellular carriers may need to install up to 50 times more antennas than are currently in use.
“That means within the next five years, we could see as many as 16 million 5G antennas installed… just in the United States.”
OK, so instaling 16 million anythings in short order probably means a business opportunity… how does this company come into it?
“Several years ago, the $5 company figured out there’d be huge demand for 5G antennas.
“So they invested heavily in designing and building some of the best, cutting-edge antennas in the world.
“… I believe the $5 company will be hired to supply a major percentage of America’s 16 million new 5G antennas.”
And, of course, there’s that second solution to the flaw…
“Instead of using the 4G method of spraying signals in all directions at once and hoping each one finds the right user’s smartphone…
“5G beamforming tracks the exact location of each connected device and sends a laser-focused ‘beam’ of data directly to it…
“Even when the user is moving.
“Beamforming technology is also smart enough to identify obstacles like trees, buildings, or cars when they’re in the way…
“This really is some next-level, futuristic technology we’re dealing with here.
And this $5 company is at the forefront.”
What other clues do we get?
“… the company does business in more than 130 countries around the world”
And it’s also a patent owner….
“Patent Licensing Will Generate Billions
“The company owns more than 1,000 5G technology patents….
“This means every time a smartphone manufacturer builds a 5G phone, it owes the company a licensing fee.
“My research shows this fee could be as much as $3.50 for every 5G smartphone sold anywhere in the world.”
OK, so that’s enough clues — the Thinkolator won’t even have to come out of the garage for this one… but let’s just see what other hype he throws in before we get you your answer…
“If expert estimates are even in the ballpark, as many as 1.9 billion 5G smartphones will ship between now and 2023.
“This means companies like Samsung, Apple, LG, Motorola… even foreign phone manufacturers like Huawei… will owe the company a licensing fee for every last one of those 1.9 billion phones.
“At $3.50 per phone, the $5 company stands to generate as much as $6.65 billion… just from licensing fees.”
Patent licensing is part of what built Qualcomm into a behemoth, so that’s exciting — licensing fees hit the income statement as pretty much pure profit, usually with margins of 80-90% or more, because the cost of developing those technologies or patenting those ideas was amortized years ago. So Leeb goes on to exaggerate that a bit…
“And with $6.65 billion pouring through the pipes, the company earns $4.6 million dollars a day… for doing literally nothing!
“For a moment, just imagine what a $6.65 billion patent licensing jackpot can mean for a $5 stock.
“It could easily soar 5x… 10x… 20x… maybe even 100x.”
That’s hugely misleading, of course, because you’re comparing a dollar figure for the whole company to a relatively meaningless share price for one little piece of the company… without knowing anything about the rest of the company or how many pieces (or shares) the company has been divided into… but more on that in a moment.
More from Leeb:
“Over the past few years, the company has developed a reputation as one of the few companies who can actually make 5G technology work.
“So as you might expect, cellular companies have been paying a lot of money for the right to partner with them.
“As of last count, the company has signed over 40 major contracts with telecom companies and governments around the globe.
“And since March 2019, they’ve closed an average of one major contract each week.”
And some flesh on those bones:
“So far, they’ve signed deals with companies in Europe, South America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and North America… including contracts with four top-tier U.S. cellular carriers.
“While the dollar value of these contracts isn’t public knowledge, my sources indicate one of them is a multi-year deal worth $3.5 billion.
“Even if the other 39+ contracts are worth only 20% of that amount, the company could secure as much as $31 billion in new revenue over the next few years.”
And Leeb says that they’ll also benefit from two catalysts courtesy of President Trump — first, that he wants 5G to happen fast… and second, that he has banned their biggest competitor, Chinese giant Huawei, which is also leading to Huawei bans in some allied countries.
So yes, I know, you’ve probably figured out the answer by now… but let’s close it out with some more (horrifically misleading) daydreaming…
“And with the company signing billion-dollar contracts in dozens of countries around the globe, it won’t be long before Wall Street catches wind of its momentum.
“When that happens, you can say goodbye to its $5 stock price.
“Where it goes from there is anyone’s guess.
“If it hits $100 a share… a $5,000 stake could turn into $100,000.
“When it reaches $250, that same $5,000 could add $250,000 to your account.
“An extra $250,000 could let you…
“Become debt-free for the first time in years…
“Put an addition on your home…
“Or walk into a dealership and buy a new Cadillac without a second thought.
“And the stock price could go much higher than $250.”
So who’s the cure for this “devastating flaw” and the owner of all these royalties? This is, surprisingly enough, our old friend Nokia (NOK), which is indeed a $5 stock (it’s seen $6 and $4.50 over the past year or so), though it ain’t exactly small or unknown.
One reason this ad works so well to draw in your attention is that investors are notoriously silly about per-share stock prices — it means a lot to some people to buy a stock that’s less than $20, or less than $100, and to some it feels like there’s more exciting potential if a stock is priced at only $5 a share (or less)… as if the share price signals something real about the size of the company (it doesn’t, since every company has a different number of shares outstanding — in Nokia’s case, they have 5.6 billion outstanding shares, it would be but a quick wave of a magic wand to consolidate that 10:1 to 560 million shares and turn NOK into a $50 stock… if that makes you feel different about it as an investment, then you need to think deeper). That’s also part of the reason why the Oxford Club pitch about a “little $3 one stock retirement company” is so popular and has been circulated so many times: Low stock prices make us daydream about huge gains.
But, of course, Nokia is not at all a small company. Neither is Oxford’s touted FoxConn, for that matter. Nokia has a $27 billion market cap now, and has been over $100 billion a couple times (back in the dot-com mania, when they were the dominant global supplier of cellphones, a business they’ve largely disposed of, and again in the early years of the iPhone when they briefly seemed capable of competing in the smartphone market).
It’s a very different company now, however, and generally a more value-priced one. Nokia acquired Alcatel-Lucent about three years ago, sold off its handset division before that, and licenses its brand name to phonemakers around the world instead of selling millions of its own phones (sort of like Blackberry now does)… but the old core of both Nokia and Alcatel-Lucent is telecom equipment, and they have really doubled down on that. They are licensors of basic patents and technology for cell phones, just like Qualcomm and Ericsson are, so they earn a few dollars per each high-end phone, but they are primarily a builder and seller of networking equipment and software to run computer networks and telecom networks, with most of the business in wireless networks… and, yes, that includes leadership, in these early days, in 5G installations (the assessments of market share that I’ve seen have them well behind Huawei, which is very aggressive, but with larger share than Ericsson or Samsung or the other smaller equipment makers and vendors).
I’ve been building a Nokia (NOK) position over the past year or so, one that’s still a little bit in the red, and this is what I noted for the Irregulars last week when I last added a little nibble:
“Speaking of 5G, which I still expect to be a very powerful tailwind for a lot of different telecom hardware and, after that, tech companies, I also added slightly to my Nokia (NOK) holdings today when it dipped under $5 a share again. Nokia is now, for the first time, sneaking into my top ten holdings after a very gradual process of building a position over the past year (a position that’s under water right now, I should note).
“Next year should provide the big moment of truth: If Nokia is really able to ramp up sales late in 2019 and throughout 2020 as 5G networks are built out, posting a 30%+ jump in cash flow next year as analysts expect, then the stock will not likely languish in this $4-6 neighborhood far into the year — the expectation is for more than 40 cents a share in earnings in 2020, which would be a 50% pop, and that won’t be an ongoing surge but gradual growth should continue, and it will reset earnings at a higher level for at least a few years as infrastructure demand heats up. NOK shouldn’t trade at a PE of 12 with a 4.5% dividend yield in that world. I think a double over the next 18 months is possible, though a 50% rise is more likely… assuming, of course, that things progress as Nokia and the analysts expect, and we don’t see the whole market clobbered by the next barrage of trade war tweets.”
So sure, I can see the possibility that Nokia could double from here in the next year or two… though I don’t think that’s the most likely outcome, and it’s far from guaranteed. A slowdown in 5G investment (or a resurgence of Huawei globally) could easily cut into that. This is not a tiny technology startup, it’s a gigantic global blue chip in the telecom equipment space. I like it for its steadiness, and I agree that investors are probably underestimating the growth potential over the next few years, but I also like it for the dividend and the potential for dividend growth. Here’s what Nokia said in the annual report earlier this year:
“The dividend to shareholders is Nokia’s principal method of distributing earnings to shareholders. Over the long term, Nokia targets to deliver an earnings-based growing dividend by distributing approximately 40% to 70% of non-IFRS diluted EPS”
So in addition to the expected growth in earnings next year, it’s very likely that Nokia will again increase the dividend — though probably not so dramatically, since they are growing into that 40-70% payout goal and paid out more than that last year. The forecast in euros is for 36 cents in earnings per share, and that’s probably using non-IFRS numbers because analysts tend to use the same numbers the company likes, so under those guidelines that would allow for a potential dividend of anywhere from 14 cents to 25 cents, but they’ve been clear about their intention to raise the dividend over time so I’d assume we’ll get at least a token increase from the current 20 cents (and those are euro cents, so that’s 22 cents in the US… though there’s also dividend withholding in Finland, and an ADR fee that can eat into that a little, particularly if you invest in a tax-deferred account and can’t claim your foreign tax as a credit). Personally, I expect NOK to increase the dividend by at least 3-4% for 2020, and to therefore have a forward yield of about 4.7% at this price ($4.90 or so)… the current yield, at 5 euro cents per quarter, should be just under 4.5%.
Which is lovely, and I think it’s an attractive opportunity (obviously, since I’ve been buying the stock), but it’s definitely not a stock that’s going to go from $5 to $100 in a year or two… and even $10 requires some optimism. Nokia does have technologies for mimo antenna arrays and other ways to deal with the inherent challenges of mmWave bandwidths for 5G, but so do Qualcomm and Ericsson and others. They arguably have an edge in small cell technologies, partly because they can build on and integrate with their 4G equipment that providers are already using… but they are certainly not providing the only solution to 5G’s well-known challenges (can’t penetrate buildings, need base stations every 100 yards or so for full coverage).
It is, I’m sure, sadly quite possible to build and maintain a 5G network without using Nokia at all (though you might have to license some of their technologies, as Nokia presumably has to license in tech from Qualcomm, Ericsson and others from time to time).
Probably the best way to “cool your jets” on Nokia, after reading through Leeb’s presentation and getting overly excited about the huge billion-dollar numbers he throws around, is by looking at Nokia’s actual numbers today to get a little context.
Yes, $6.5 billion in 5G royalties is (remotely) possible over the next four or five years (not in a single year, but cumulatively as 5G phones get adopted globally). NOK has capped its per-smartphone 5G royalty for its “standard essential patents” at about $3.50, lower than the royalties Qualcomm and Ericsson are hoping for, though will presumably also negotiate that down with some customers. That’s a core part of the business that has existed for years, roughly 6-8% of the wholesale price of a new phone, on average, likely goes to pay royalties to a variety of technology owners, with those three getting the lion’s share of all cellphone technology royalty payments for 4G as well, and part of the reason Nokia set its rate surprisingly low last year was a desire to avoid Qualcomm-like backlash and litigation (Qualcomm has demanded as much as $16 per phone in royalties, in addition to providing actual chips and modems for many customers).
It’s not going to flow in dramatically, however, 5G will take years to get built and adopted — estimates that I’ve seen are that we won’t even see 100 million 5G phones shipped in a year until at least 2021, perhaps 2022. If that leads to $350 million in additional royalties in a year that would be meaningful for NOK, and quite welcome in the context of the past few years, when they’ve mostly been losing money because of the slowdown in network equipment and troubles with Alcatel-Lucent integration… but even if it went straight to the bottom line and was entirely an add-on to the current business, that would only be “new” profit of about six cents a share. Helpful, but not the kind of thing that sends a stock soaring by 1,000%.
And yes, adding $31 billion in new 5G business is a good thing for Nokia over the next couple years, as Leeb intimates is likely. But Nokia has posted annual revenue of between $25-27 billion since acquiring Alcatel-Lucent, and some of that revenue gets replaced by the new business (royalties on older technologies drop, investment in 4G networks has slowed a bit as people prepare for 5G)… this is a growth boost, but not necessarily a wild sea change in the business. And, of course, this isn’t a surprise — 5G has been in development and testing for many years, Nokia is one of the most widely-followed 5G “ideas” out there, and analysts see that growth coming (though they might be underestimating it a bit to be conservative, given Nokia’s operational challenges).
You can see Nokia’s own assessment of the situation in their latest investor presentation, which came with their second quarter results at the end of July. Their expectation at the time was for a soft third quarter and a very strong fourth quarter, mostly because of the pace of 5G dealmaking, though that could easily, of course, be thrown off by trade war talk or anything else that causes executives to think twice about investments or slow things down at all.
The expectations of analysts are that the revenue is not going to grow that dramatically, but that new products and services (largely for 5G) will be a little more profitable than their older businesses, so they see revenue climbing only about 1-2% a year over the next few years, but earnings jumping sharply next year by about 50% and then staying at roughly that level for 2021. That would be 41 cents in EPS (in US$), so that’s where I get the PE of about 12… quite reasonable for a low-growth dividend payer, and, if the growth beyond next year is better than hoped, maybe downright cheap.
The analysts might be wrong, of course, it could be that the rampup of 5G investment is a lot faster, as Leeb implies, and perhaps Nokia will win more business… but it’s as possible that the future will be less good than they hope. Their home European market is still a major market for Nokia (28% of sales, versus 31% for the US), and they report in Euros, so the worries about Europe sinking into recession and slowing investment are real… and they’ll also see quite a bit of fluctuation in earnings as the euro rises and falls.
Nokia is a very widely-touted and well-known stock, with lots of newsletters pitching the 5G angle and the hoped-for growth, so this isn’t terribly new — we’ve seen it touted with similar urgency by Michael Robinson (“mysterious m-boxes”) and Jeff Brown (“$6 digital king”) over the past year or so. I’ve continued to try to keep my expectations much more muted than these pitchmen, since I think Nokia has very little chance of more than a decent 20-50% rise over the next year or two, but, thankfully, we can separate the daydreams from reality — thinking the wild promises are silly doesn’t mean I have to hate the stock.
That’s just what I think, though, and when you’re dealing with your money you should be careful to make your own decisions… so I’ll turn it over to you, dear readers. We’ve covered Nokia many times, and I know many of you have followed it or may even own shares… what do you think of their chances now? Let us know with a comment below.
Disclosure: I own shares and/or call options on Nokia, Ericsson, Qualcomm and Apple among the companies mentioned above. I will not trade in any covered stock for at least three days, per Stock Gumshoe’s trading rules.
so is any one tracking how many annalist have picked this one
or any of the others ?
any one tracking who has picked who across the 5G options
matter of fact , who are all our options
I have come up with 4 analysts so far that have touted Nokia
I think to make 5G happen quickly & globally it seems to me that several companies would get involved to build the infrastructure not just one?
Indeed. Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia and Samsung make almost all the equipment and base stations, but there are also tower/small cell locations, chips, handsets, routers and switches and tons of other stuff that will be in demand for new networks. We have probably looked at a couple dozen teased “5G plays”, Nokia is arguably the most popular teaser stock but I’ve also seen SBAC, CCI, ERIC, SWKS, AKTS, AMT, QCOM and I’m sure I’m forgetting some. And that’s before we go from the “who benefits from building the networks” to “which businesses suddenly become
Much better because of 5G coverage” (video streaming, gaming, etc.)
It’s a big change, and will probably be quite gradual.
Thanks Travis, I have been building a position in NOK for about a year as well. Really like your spreadsheets by the way. I have developed a whole trading strategy around them.
My son, who is works in the software field, told me that 5G signals can’t pass through ordinary house walls, so that it will be useless inside buildings. As such the potential value is way over-hyped. Could someone with a knowledge of the physics please chime in on this, explain the physics, and either confirm or contradict my son’s opinion on this matter? Thanks!
NOK, Foxcon
for the home Ie verizon/ inseego they provide a window router to get the signal. once they roll out their service later this yr people will see it.
My understanding is Huawei adopted a different frequency in range of 3/4G from mmWave adopted by US, S Korea, and Japan. In Asia, people live in tightly packed metropolitan area installing more antennas is cost effective to serve theirs customer base! Foxconn’s chairman has decided to leave his business to get into Taiwan local presidential race. It is not a good signal. As opposed to the other famous Taiwanese company, TSMC, which is well managed to meet western accounting standards and has ADR listed on NY stock exchange. Taiwan stock exchange is mainly supported by international money funds which are the Smart Money. They only give Foxconn a $3 valuation for good reasons.
I would tend to agree… though one substantial beneficiary of any real capital flight from Hong Kong, assuming that the protests result in fear among HK investors (not at all certain, it’s early, but you never know), would very likely be Taiwan. If Taiwan’s market goes up, that’s good for TSMC and Foxconn, the two largest companies on that exchange (by far).
$NOK I was curious about the Finish dividend tax withholding and found:
Non-resident receiving dividends, interest or royalties from a Finnish source
If you are not a resident in Finland and get dividends, interest or royalties, the Finnish payer must withhold tax at source. The tax at source is 30%. Depending on the provisions of different tax treaties, a lower rate — or even a full exemption from taxation — may be in force.
The payer has the right to withhold the source tax at lower rates as set out by the treaty on the condition that you present your full taxpayer identification details and proof confirming that the treaty is applicable in your circumstances.
The identification details are the following:
Your name
Date of birth and other official ID information
Address in country of residence
A certificate from that country’s tax authorities proving that they treat you as their resident.
If it is unclear what the rate of withholding should be for the dividends, interest or royalties that you are receiving, ask the Finnish Tax Administration to prepare a tax-at-source card for you (Form 5057).
Alternatively, ask the Finnish Tax Administration to prepare an advance ruling (this is a service against a charge).
Thanks as always for the extensive rational analysis, Travis. NOK looks more attractive down here near support.
“…faster than a Ferrari on the Audubon” Lol, love this Leeb goof.
Is anyone concerned about the documented health risks from 5-G, especially for children?
Millions of people are apparently concerned, as they were for 2G, 3G and 4G (and microwave ovens). The debate continues, largely without much attention paid to the scientific method in the inflammatory articles I’ve read.
Any adverse results are heavily suppressed due to industry and military requiring unlimited use.
I have read the US military uses 5G for crowd control. It heats up the crowd’s skin.
There are “Active Denial Systems” that are on similar wavelengths to what is being used for 5G, but just being on a similar wavelength doesn’t mean they have the same impact. Long-distance microwave telecommunications has been used for decades, but it doesn’t heat your burrito like a microwave oven does, in part because it’s much lower power and less concentrated.
At least, that’s what the non-engineer in me understands to be the basic science.
If you only had a few more licensed amateur radio (hams) handy you’d know that all radio waves obey the law of inverse squares, which means power decreases as the square of the distance. So, the HIGHER you place your receivng device, and the larger the number of recei ing devices, the greater the received signal strength. Amazon plans 850 low earth orbit receiving satellites, which should guarantee good 5G coverage anywhere. Who needs gazillions of antennas? We hams have been using millimeter waves for nigh on 100 years. Leeb knows nothing! George Whalen NY9A
George, Don’t you mean the “LOWER” you place the receiving device? Also are low orbit satellites low enough to give and receive 5G at the energy levels under consideration? Thanks – R
NOK
ryocum: Leeb is talking about antennas 20-30 ft off the ground, like today’s 4G ugly antennas on buildings. Since SHF radio waves will (if you’re lucky) go line-of-sight to such LOW antennas, (due to Earth’s curvature, trees, billboards and other clutter) it makes much greater sense to put many low earth orbit satellites (say, up above, say, 300 miles, or so). The radio line-of-sight will be a straight line (no horizon), no trees, no clutter…so the received and re-transmitted signals will only be limited to the RF power. Using 5 watts, I have spoken with other, hams in aircraft, on the 2-meter and 70-centimeter UHF and VHF amateur bands, over path distances of 300-500 miles. It’s because they are cruising at 20-30,000 feet, so there’s a clear path between us, although my antenna is only 20 feet off the ground.
Space X already has ’00’s up there, in process switching them on. They plan at least 1000. And SpaceBlue and Sirius planning too. These satellites are going to collide with gvmntl satellites (most, there earlier) and a vicious cycle eventually will make most LEO’s uninhabitable w/ blankets fragment pollution, putting all out of business. Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk’s only lasting legacy.
Any possibility of Nokia being a takeover target? If so, by which company?
I would be shocked — they are large, regulators would be very careful, and they are extremely important to the Finnish people and government.
Travis, this may be related to deanbob’s thoughts on the withholding tax in Finland, but I see that NOKBF shows a 4.5% Div rate, but NOK (Sponsored American Depository Shares) show a 1.15% dividend. How does all that work (and how do you get your 4.5% div “while you wait” ?)?
Wondering the same thing. Nasdaq.com is showing two dividends for this year, 4.6c (ex 5/22) and 4.5c (ex 7/29). They normally just pay once, mid-year.
That’s probably just confusion because Nokia this year went from an annual dividend to a quarterly one, sometimes the data stream doesn’t catch up with those kinds of changes right away. It’s 20 euro cents per year at the moment, paid in five-cent quarterly increments. Shareholders all receive the same dividend, regardless of the ticker symbol or the exchange you buy the shares on, though withholding tax might be a little different (as might ADR fees). I hold Nokia in a taxable account so I can take credit for the withholding tax paid, and I suppose its fair that they pass on the ADR management fees to shareholders instead of swallowing it like many other companies do, but those will cut into the quarterly cash flow for shareholders.
I just went back and checked for my most recent dividend, which was paid in mid-August, and it looks like the withholding tax was indeed 30% of the dividend, and the ADR fee was 4.5% of the dividend. Assuming the withholding tax were a sunk cost (it’s not, I’ll get that back at tax return time — but you can’t claim the foreign tax if you hold NOK in a tax-deferred account, and I don’t know whether the Finnish/US tax treaty covers that), that would bring the effective dividend down to 3.75 cents (US$) for that quarter, which is almost exactly a 3% after-tax dividend yield. Dividend taxes aren’t generally withheld in the US, but outside of tax-deferred account you still owe them (most people in the US would pay 15% on qualified dividends, which I presume NOK’s are), so compare apples to apples when deciding whether the tax is too onerous.
The range of 5G wavelengths is similar to microwaves and it bakes flesh and disrupts living organisms.
So do you believe that when there are thousands of 5G satellites hovering around the planet in a few years from now, that the entire world will get baked fro RF radiation?
SHF is microwave spectrum. In an oven, it cooks at 500 watts, but at cellphone 5 watts, it does zip.
Those band were never suppose to be used. The Government ban them. But we are running out of wavelengths.
“faster than a Ferrari on the Audubon” ? John J Autobahn? Maybe spellcheck, I’m lazy too, but I’m not trying to sell either.
Travis, as always love your analysis.
What experation day your Nokia options are?
Please advise.
Thsnks
A bunch of different ones, all listed in the Real Money Portfolio.
Travis– you mentioned AMT can you give a Opinion on the future of this stock ? thanks.
I expect all the tower stocks will do well, but prefer CCI for its better valuation and leverage to small cells and the US market (AMT and SBAC have larger overseas tower portfolios), and for its focus on paying a higher dividend (though AMT has better dividend growth… and SBAC might start a dividend eventually, which could give them a boost).
Just ask one of the richest man in the world. If you check his portfolio he bought 650 million dollars worth of CCI stock that should show you something!!
Sure, but if I recall correctly the Gates Foundation bought their CCI shares many, many years ago.
Thanks for the insight, Travis, but I will not be buying NOK. Years ago I sold all my foreign dividend payers in my ROTH IRA that were subject to foreign country tax withholding!
Don’t blame you!
Dear Travis; Thanks for your valuable work. I share the following information from Jon Markman regarding the 5G subject, upon which I´d like to have your thoughts:
“FLASH ALERT:
Massive Deal Could Send this Obscure
5G Stock Soaring Over 800%
But you’ll need to act fast for maximum gains
by Jon D. Markman
It could be one of the biggest 5G deals to date.
And it could make a handful of early investors very rich.
The whole key here is: URGENCY. Once this news makes the rounds, the biggest gains could be gone. So please be prepared to act if you’re interested in profiting from the trillion-dollar 5G boom.
In this special Flash Alert, you’ll learn:
1) How 5G is about to revolutionize our emergency-response system in the U.S. …
2) How a newly signed deal will allow one company to ride this transformation to huge gains …
3) How to discover an endless stream of similar 5G opportunities going forward …
A Coming Revolution in Emergency Medicine
And a Potential 10-Bagger Stock Opportunity…”
Thank you for your level headed big picture view of a frequently distorted investment world
“A brand-new, high-speed, high capacity 5G antenna can only transmit a wireless signal just a little over 500 yards.” Just to correct the physics a little: That wireless signal will happily progress into planetary space and the rest of the galaxy – just with decreasing signal strength, which depends on the transmitter output power; and that is probably more limited by the power amplifier than the antenna. The latter tend to be robust and cheap, but the former are expensive, electrically fragile, and potentially short-lived. So mm-wave transistors are the area of expertise that is of critical importance. I don’t think Nokia is in this line of work.
I don’t think they make the actual chips, but there are plenty of semiconductor companies looking for the early lead in power amplifiers (and trying to build integrated front-end systems to buttress their case), including Qorvo and Skyworks who are pretty focused on those products, and to a lesser extent Texas Instruments and NXP, and probably lots of
Others that I haven’t looked at.
All, and especially George Whalen,
With regard to several of the comments in this thread, I’m confused. If the 5G transmitters on the ground can only transmit 500 yards, how can satellites 300 miles high be effective? And would we all need antennas on our roofs? And no trees or skyscrapers nearby?
Also, what is the relationship between Ham radio and 5G? Specifically, what wavelengths are used by the two ? Do they overlap? And please don’t use obscure jargon, as most of us are not physicists or Ham operators.
I did some Ham radio as a kid in the early 1960’s with a Heathkit short wave radio (A great, but now obscure company, for all of you youngsters. It sold kits with which you could build your own electronic devices). I vaguely remember that the waves could transmit over long distances by “bouncing off of the ionosphere”, but in practice, the transmissions were generally poor and extremely intermittent, supposedly because the ionosphere is constantly changing with the weather. Thanks -R
I have read an interesting comment on Nokia unrelated to 5G. It claimed that Nokia was a leading source of smartphones suitable for the Indian market, which is going to become a major generator of smartphone sales as these become the major way of transacting financial transactions in that country. It nominated this as a major source of growth for Nokia, but this conflicts slightly with Travis’ comment that Nokia was now largely a licensor, rather than a maker, of mobile phones.
I am posting this in regards to high speed semiconductor chips for 5G.
Using photonics alongside a semiconductor chip would replace copper, allowing chips to run cool and go 100 to 400 X faster without overheating. Also a great cost reduction by eliminating the use of copper and lowering energy costs.
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