Yastine’s “$5 Biotech Stock Revolutionizing Health Care”

by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | June 25, 2019 9:09 am

What's the auto-injector company and "Prime takeover target" teased by Total Wealth Insider?

Today’s ad for our consideration and de-teasification is from Jeff Yastine for his Total Wealth Insider newsletter over at Banyan Hill — that’s one of their “entry level” newsletters ($79/year), and this time he’s promising that he’s got a $5 stock from New Jersey that’s going to knock our socks off.

OK, fine, he didn’t mention socks. He did say that he thinks big money is about to flood in… and “even a modest capital infusion” could send it to $10 or $20 “in a matter of days.”

That’s not the kind of thing that happens very often, of course, and it probably won’t happen this time — but one never knows, so I thought we’d look into it and see if we can name the stock for you, and give you a little head start on your research… then you can decide if this little guy is “revolutionizing health care” or just another hype-y story that won’t pan out (or something in between).

Here’s a bit of the tease, to whet your appetite:

“Frankly, there’s no time to waste, so here are the details…

“This New Jersey company’s stock is priced at just $5.

“And once institutional investors see the impact this device will have on the medical community — big money will begin to flood in.

“And given the small market capitalization of this company and its relatively inexpensive stock price, even a modest capital infusion could drive its share prices to $10 … $15 … even $20 in a matter of days.:

As with pretty much all medical stock teasers, we get the comparisons of past wealth-makers trotted out to spur our little greed impulses… with the implication that this device maker has the same kind of big potential as Medtronic or Intuitive Surgical.

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“While I can’t guarantee this opportunity will make you over $3 million, like Medtronic could have, I can guarantee that the potential is certainly there.

“Because there’s currently no device like it on the market today.”

OK… so what is this device?

“This device was first developed by the U.S. military in the 1970s for soldiers to use in case of exposure to nerve agents or chemical warfare toxins. Its simplistic design allows for a soldier to quickly and safely inject a lifesaving medicine.

“Hence why it’s small.

“It’s only 4 inches long and weighs just 12 ounces.”

And there’s a photo of the device, so this is not a real “secret” or surprise kind of device — pretty much everyone would immediately see that and say, “hey, that’s an Epipen!”

More from the ad:

“Those in the medical field call this a prefilled auto-injector….

“… it looks like an EpiPen — its uses go way beyond helping those with allergies, and it’s made with the precision you’d expect from a fine Swiss watch….

“… the metallurgy of the auto-injector spring and the engineering of its other components are of the utmost importance, and it’s different for every drug.

“This is why there are very few companies that focus on the manufacturing of auto-injectors.

“And that’s why I’m so excited about this $450 million company — with its stock trading near $5 — that has over 100 auto-injector patents in its arsenal.”

We also get some feel-good stories, which balance out the ‘greed’ impulse of biotech investors with the warm-belly feeling of also doing something good for humankind…

“Laurie Mann, was with her husband when she suddenly began struggling to breathe. If not for the medicine in this device, she might not have survived. As she said: ‘I’m here because of it … [it] saved my life.’

“Carissa Pak needed this device for her 15-week-old infant, Jack. She was holding her newborn when he suddenly began coughing and vomiting uncontrollably. This device ‘saved my son’s life,’ she declared.

“And Jordan McDonald couldn’t breathe until she was inside an ambulance, and this device was administered. ‘I nearly died,’ she recalled.”

Those all sound like allergic reaction stories, though I didn’t run down the specifics — there are no end of the “epipen saved a life” stories, and they were particularly publicized in recent years when the pricing controversy over Mylan’s Epipen got onto the front pages and into Congressional hearing rooms.

And some more big claims:

“I am confident this device will go down in the history books as the most important…

“More important than…

“The X-ray machine
“Than artificial limbs
“Than the pacemaker
“Than the hypodermic needle

“And way more important than the thermometer. Unlike a thermometer, that simply shows you some basic information … this device gets results — potentially saving up to 54 million lives each and every year.”

And, of course, the always-present ridiculous short-term promises:

“… if you were to invest … say … $10,000 in this company today, you could watch your investment jump to over $40,000 by the end of the month.

“And if you decided to hold your shares and wait for the stock price to reflect the potential profits this device could generate, you could watch your investment grow to more than $80,000 over the coming 12 to 18 months … and $160,000 over the long haul.”

OK, so it’s some kind of maker of autoinjector pens, with lots of patents, but it’s pretty small and Yastine thinks the stock can climb 300% in a month and 800% in a year.

Any other clues? Indeed yes…

“… it recently signed two massive deals.

“One with Teva Pharmaceutical, the world’s largest generic drugmaker … a firm with a $12.5 billion market cap.

“The other with Pfizer, the world’s largest pharmaceutical … a company with a $228.5 billion market cap.”

And he drops some hints about the Pfizer deal, including the key word “royalties” that always makes my ears perk up… apparently they have some development deal where Pfizer gets access to the technology, but also has to pay all the drug development costs:

“All of these costs are the sole responsibility of the firms whose drugs go into its devices … Teva Pharmaceutical and Pfizer.

“Meanwhile, our little company simply sits back and collects royalties on every auto-injector sold.

“It’s a zero-risk transaction for our little $5 stock.”

And a few other specific clues:

“… this company’s earnings soared 768% year over year last quarter, and it expects its earnings per share (EPS) to surge even more in the coming years.”

They show a graph of “revenue estimates” for the company, indicating that 2019 revenue will be somewhere near $100 million, and that it will more than double by 2022 to about $230 million.

And we’re also told that the company is “sitting on nearly $30 million in cash….”

And that new FDA regulations will bring a “record number of uses for auto-injectors,” so the market is likely to grow.

Which has to be plenty of clues, right?

Indeed, the Thinkolator sez this one is Antares Pharma (ATRS), which is a little maker of auto-injectors… and which is well under $5 (about $3 at the moment), and with a market cap of just under $500 million.

The “$30 million in cash” is roughly accurate — as of the end of 2018, at least… right now it’s down to about $22 million, despite having raised $14 million with share sales in the past couple quarters, so I guess they’re into a heavier-spending time these days.

Antares has been publicly traded for more than 20 years, and so far has not created any wealth for anyone — so although the revenue has ramped up in the past few years (it is expected to hit $101 million this year, and they’ve grown the revenue almost every year over the past decade), it could be that investors are a bit cautious… after all, they’ve never come close to breaking even, and costs have consistently risen to keep up with revenues over the years.

So… is that about to change now? Is there some windfall expected from new products, or from these Pfizer and Teva deals?

I dunno. Their recent investor conference presentation is here[1], telling the story they want investors to hear, and that’s all about their newer products — they released three products in 2018, including their Xyosted auto-injector for testosterone therapy that they seem most excited about. The more likely driver of sales this year, though, is the generic EpiPen from Teva — the big boost in revenue this year is mostly going to come in the second half, assuming a “full commercial launch” for the product (including “EpiPen Jr.” in time for back-to-school). They also have some other products that are relatively small, but certainly could grow — like Makena for a variety of injectable progesterone to reduce preterm birth risks, and there are also two other Teva products that are close to approval — Teriparatide and Exenatide.

Antares also has a Pfizer “Rescue Pen” deal, disclosed last year,[2] though it’s early stage… as far as I can tell, they haven’t even disclosed what drug will be used in the pen, or what it might be expected to rescue you from.

I do generally prefer partnership deals and royalties when you’re talking about pharmaceutical investments, but I can’t say that I have any great insight into Antares and whether it will eventually be hugely successful — I’m a little skeptical that the value of these patents will turn out to be overwhelming, if only because basic autoinjectors have been around for decades and work well, and clearly those designs are not all “owned” by Antares… maybe their technology is better enough to make a splash, and it does speak well for them that they got the “Rescue Pen” deal with Pfizer, since Pfizer is also perfectly capable of making its own autoinjectors (Pfizer makes EpiPens for Mylan already, for example).

So since I’m no in way an expert on the specifics or the auto-injector market, I’ll rely on the analyst estimates to get some quick perspective — the half-dozen analysts who publish estimates on Antares expect them to go from $102 million in revenue in 2019 to $157 million in 2020 and $195 million in 2021… so that’s pretty impressive. I assume that optimism is mostly from taking market share from the EpiPen, but perhaps the new products are bigger than I’m guessing.

And from that revenue, they expect earnings per share of of 22 cents from ATRS next year, and 40 cents in 2021. That sounds downright fantastic for a company that has never posted a profit before, so there’s clearly some optimism from the analysts… though the fact that the shares are still down at $3, which would be a forward PE of 13 if the analysts are right (and only 7.5X 2021 earnings), tells us that the investors are not really believing in the “going to grow revenues for real and become profitable” transition for Antares.

I don’t blame them, after 20 years of being a “development stage” company, with some flirtation with near-profitability that has so far ended in tears each time, including the delayed hope that their testosterone pen would make them profitable in 2018, I’d be a little skeptical, too… but if they can really make the transition, as analysts expect, then that’s an easy buy at this valuation.

And with that, I’ll turn it back over to you — expect great things this month (or year) from Antares? Do you see the potential for massive and rapid growth? Are we looking at a little medical device bargain? Or is this an over-sold story from a company that has spent forever trying to make it to “prime time?” I won’t be buying this one, but I can see the appeal if you think the analysts are on the ball at all… let us know with a comment below. Thanks for reading!

P.S. We still also get questions every few days about Jeff Yastine’s “$20 tech stock”[3] that could make you a “one stock millionaire” — that’s one we first covered back in January, if you’re curious about it you can see that older story here[4].

Disclosure: I do not own any of the stocks mentioned above, and will not trade in any covered stock for at least three days per Stock Gumshoe’s trading rules.


Endnotes:
  1. recent investor conference presentation is here: https://www.antarespharma.com/application/files/3815/6017/6085/Jefferies_Healthcare_2019_Conference_6.5.19.pdf
  2. Pfizer “Rescue Pen” deal, disclosed last year,: https://www.mddionline.com/pfizer-keeping-details-new-rescue-pen-low-key-now
  3. Jeff Yastine’s “$20 tech stock”: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/reviews/total-wealth-insider/yastine-says-this-inconspicuous-20-stock-could-create-americas-next-wave-of-millionaires-beginning-february-15th/
  4. here: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/reviews/total-wealth-insider/yastine-says-this-inconspicuous-20-stock-could-create-americas-next-wave-of-millionaires-beginning-february-15th/

Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/reviews/total-wealth-insider/yastines-5-biotech-stock-revolutionizing-health-care/


  1. Avatar
    michelg
    Jun 25 2019, 10:04:25 am

    Speaking of pens, EpiPens, Rescue Pens, etc., several months ago, I noticed a small cap company by the name of Opiant (OPNT) which cornered the opioid overdose rescue market by means of injecting a substance called Naloxone to victims of such overdoses, which actually brought those people back to life.

    Since then, the stock has had its ups and downs and is presently quite a ways from its all time high. Any news on the front ?

    • 255
      Avatar
      StockMidas
      Jun 26 2019, 11:34:31 am

      The “news” of Opiant’s revolutionary Narcan Spray designed for reversing the effects of an opiate overdose broke in the first part of 2017. The stock price ramped up from $ 6 to $50 within a space of two months,only to tank down again and has been trading for some time in the $13.00 range.

      Part of the decline can be attributed to the then management’s ideas of how to apportionate funds which did not bode well with investors. Despite these issues having been settled some time ago the stock price has not recovered again – a possible indication of the real value of the company.

  2. Avatar
    jay
    Jun 25 2019, 11:09:24 am

    ATRS is finally on the cusp of becoming profitable. Its testosterone injection is the best on the market and is weekly. Teva is getting the epi pens into the market space, and there are drugs waiting for FDA approval. It is projected that by end of year 2021 ATRS will show a profit of a tad over .40 a share.

  3. Avatar
    dunadar
    Jun 25 2019, 12:26:16 pm

    You sure gave ATRS a swift kick in the butt, the price doubled in 2 days. Now I don’t know if this is a ringer now or not.

    • 12538 |
      Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
      Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
      Jun 25 2019, 02:50:49 pm

      Not sure what you’re looking at, the price did not come anywhere near doubling in two days. The stock closed at $3.02 yesterday, I published my look at the ad/stock this morning and it got as high as about $3.25 for a few minutes this afternoon. The shares have mostly traded in a range between $2.50 and $4 for a year or so.

  4. 117 |
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    bunion132
    Jun 25 2019, 01:10:33 pm

    I’m wondering how long Yastine has been pitching this stock. The last time ATRS was a $5 stock was way back in Jan-Feb 2014! Over the next five years, it barely touched $4 only three times. Maybe I’ve read too many hyperbolic teasers in the biotech and medical equipment niches that I’ve become callous to their promises of revolutionizing the healthcare industry?

    Of course I am thankful for Gumshoeland that neutralizes the hyperbole and for the input members share. This prevents me from being a TOTAL sucker (vs somewhat-sucker). Lol.

  5. Avatar
    Edmund Pipitone
    Jun 25 2019, 01:43:24 pm

    Hi Travis,

    You asked:

    And with that, I’ll turn it back over to you — expect great things this month (or year) from Antares?

    Yes, we at Antares conservatively expect the revenue growth mentioned in your article between 95 – 105 million. I believe its safe to say we will be above the middle of that range.

    Do you see the potential for massive and rapid growth?

    ________________________________________________________
    Yes, we at Antares conservatively expect the revenue growth mentioned in your article of the 157 in 2020 and 195 in 2021 ‘or’ earnings per share of 22 cents and 40 cents respectively.

    Are we looking at a little medical device bargain? Or is this an over-sold story from a company that has spent forever trying to make it to “prime time?”

    Antares, in my humble opinion, has never tried to make it to ‘prime time’ in the conventional sense of what that means. The Board members of Antares, lead by Bob Apple accompanied by Fred Powell, are men of modesty. They don’t hype the company, and take a very conservative and methodical approach to how they present the story of the company to the investment community.

    As a bio-tech investor, I look to make good money, as we all do, but I look for companies that I believe are doing good for humankind. With Antares proprietary, best in class testosterone replacement therapy product, Xyosted, along with collaborations with AMAG on their Makena product– I view this as a litmus test for Xyosted market potential as its the same injector used and its switching IM patients to the Sub-cu which, at last check, they saw the product in < 1 year garnering 53% of the market– TEVA on the EPI-PEN & TERIPARITIDE to come, and the undisclosed product with Pfizer (Nalaxone?) on a rescue pen when they had their own manufacturer and a whole lot more… I believe Antares pharma is a bargain under $10 and a 'fire sale' under $4.0.
    _________________________________________________________
    Thank you for taking the time to share the article above with the investment community, and letting investors know they should support Antares, "with the warm-belly feeling of also doing something good for humankind".

    Edmund

      • Avatar
        Edmund Pipitone
        Jun 25 2019, 04:36:29 pm

        We as in ‘long term holders of the stock’. I speak for us, as we have followed this story diligently and, when seeing the analysts estimates, we agree in the forecast and believe it to be conservative in nature. Of course, there are no guarantees but it looks as if exponential growth is here for years to come. I suggest anyone who is looking for a ‘solid fundamental story’, at a stupidly cheap valuation, to add now before it moves above $5.0 per share in the coming months where it will still be cheap but less so.

  6. Avatar
    Marion
    Jun 25 2019, 11:48:38 pm

    Midget investor Marion here!
    My actions are no guide to wisdom! Just that knowing in general what Thinko digs out is smarter than going without his research, or investing in nothing!
    Jumped and bought some today!
    And as a former hospital medical professional know how much medical waste is produced, and a non-mathematician, statistician can guess if this flies many will be sold and used!
    So I got some if Thinko’s just researched auto-injector stock, ATRS !

    Just know how much is at potential benefit if it flies! Only got 350 shares at $3.13 but there is real potential in its possible mass sales and even later POTENTIAL royalties!

    ***A question! I searched to see if this had already been researched!!Apologies and a deletion is fine if it has!

    In the realm of the super pumper Dr. K. Moors is offering a $3,500. package re these EWI devices made by a “tiny company” with only a $114 Million cap! Now trading at $8.00 a share!

    And the deadline pressures he pushes are: only places for 100 new members to his exclusive exceptional access to people, places and things; and August 1, 2019 is the date he has rationalized as a “buy by “ deadline for his service! That date is the date the “EWI” maker /company is releasing 1.7 million of these amazing devices that minerals/oil explorers will love!
    Like Superman’s use of Kryptonite, this device sees through-walls, into the earth ‘s core, is a device based on “‘ultra super sonic’” infrasound logic inside the device including tiny extremely powerful electromagnets, and flux-alternators and MRI technology all in a steel unbreakable tube ! Seemed to be (my perception only) he was describing it as small as a double high old Kodak high speed camera film container, so really tiny!
    His published concept is called “Micro Energy Trader!” He briefly pumped another 2 companies!
    His clues are pretty clear, like a successful EWI device experiment was recently done in the Gulf of Mexico!
    Think this is from publisher Money Map Press.

  7. 1974 |
    JohnM
    JohnM
    Jun 26 2019, 01:25:38 am

    Antares’ technology can push a viscous drug like Makena through a fine 27-gauge needle in 15 seconds for a painless auto-injection in the back of the upper arm.
    Compare that to Makena in a doctor’s office – a painful 22-gauge intramuscular injection in the butt that takes a full minute. Ouch! And the insurance company doesn’t have to pay for a doctor’s visit.

  8. 24 |
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    pbrophy
    Jun 26 2019, 05:49:50 pm

    I have followed ATRS closely for 4-5 years. Several significant catalysts are converging that are driving both the strong revenue growth as well as the turn to profitability. A recent post in Seeking Alpha by Arthur Frentzel lays out the story well for those wanted to understand the moving parts. At the moment, royalty streams from products using the ATRS injector device have begun to flow in (Makena (AMAG), TEVA (Epi-Pen) in the 1Q and will grow each quarter. What I did not see discussed is the largest catalyst – their newest wholly owned product Xyosted. This is a subcutaneous injector of testosterone which was approved in Nov ’18. The cash from the approved product royalty streams are funding the high marketing costs of establishing Xyosted. The testosterone replacment market today is >$800mm, comprised of gels and intra-muscular injections. Xyosted has the potential to gain market share of this market because of significant feature and benefit advantages of Xyosted vs the exisiting therapies. The company is targeting reimbursements by managed care of 70% by year end. The product is priced such that patient out-of-pocket for Xyosted will be no more than they pay currently. Tracking weekly script data (Symphony) show positive trends in both new scripts and renewals for Xyosted., but these are “early days”. The stated company objective of $200mm in sales could prove conservative as word-of-mouth can do a better job than detailing forces once established. The simplest benefit is that an IM injection hurts like hell vs an injector pen which is painless. IM injections make up 70% of the market today. Another large LLY product, Forteo, ($1.5B sales w/w) is about to go generic with a TEVA/ATRS version as the first. FDA approval should come soon, which will add another royalty stream of significance (probably more than the new Epi-Pen). Positive cash flow is likely by 2H 2019, and positive eps is reasonable in 4Q, 2019, and 2020 and beyond should be positive on both counts. There is a long history of disappointments here which I believe is on the cusp of changing, which is one reason why this name could surprise on the upside. Full disclosure, I am a LT owner who has bought most of the position since the near death experience under $1 a few years ago. If you look back on the chart to Oct 2017 and see the huge drop – that happened when the FDA issued a CRL (won’t approve as filed) for Xyosted. The stock had run up expecting approval on that PDUFA date. A year later, with no additional studies or data, the FDA granted approval. No explanation given. That was one of the disappointments alluded to above.

  9. Avatar
    Hans
    Jun 26 2019, 05:56:18 pm

    Best-in-class auto-injector virtually needle-free and painless injecting best-in-class TRT formulation (Xyosted, scripts currently and 1000+ weekly and rising), epinephrine via TEVAs epipen (weekly scripts currently at 15K+ and rising), Methotrexate, Sumatriptan and more, plus a rescue-pen collaboration with Pfizer. 2019 projected revenue 100MM+ (2018 63MM), a 55% growth, 2020 revenue estimates anywhere from 140MM-200MM, profitability expected by Q3 or Q4 2019, anything beyond is profit growth. What’s not to like? Maybe the moderately high float which prevents sharp ascends, but overall one of the best and most de-risked bets in the current biotech market with an extremely conservative valuation just below 5 x 2019 revenues, very good value and lots of room on the upside here. Buy and forget, no matter where the market will go.

  10. Avatar
    tomstender
    Jul 23 2019, 07:20:56 pm

    Can’t compete with private unicorn, INTARCIA, WHO HAS A MEDICAL IMPLANT DEVICE THAT ONLY HAS TO BE RELOADED ONCE A YEAR. THEY CURRENTLY USE EXENATIDE, A GLP-1 type two diabetes drug.

  11. 24 |
    Avatar
    pbrophy
    Sep 25 2019, 02:17:03 pm

    Travis, a name you mentioned this summer – ATRS – presented at Ladenburg conf yesterday. Rev growth is very strong and is likely to stay strong with the new Epi-Pen and the Xyosted testosterone products. (up 50-100% sort of growth for the next several quarters.) Might be worth your revisiting. Co is on the cusp of the turn to CF positive in the Sept quarter- they cancelled their ATM financing arrangement which is a sign of confidence. High new product introduction costs for Xyosted have held back earnings, but will dissipate . Without pushing the envelope, one can see eps of $0.50 in the not-too-distant-future, which at 15X is a double. And if you look at a weekly chart, you can see a move above $4 would be a significant event. This is happening in a stock which has baggage of past disappointments, so a turn to believers could disproportionately gather stock price momentum.

    • Avatar
      ginnpv15
      Nov 22 2019, 12:55:59 pm

      LOOKS LIKE PEOPLE SHOULD HAVE LISTENED TO THIS ARTICLE!! ATRS TOO THE MOON FINALLY! NEW DEAL, FANTASTIC GROWTH.. GONNA BE HUGE!

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