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Trading Profit Put Writer Alert Service

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crown2001
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crown2001
October 2, 2018 6:23 pm

I learned about Jeff Tompkins through one of his Udemy courses – How to Win 97% of your Option Trades https://www.udemy.com/how-to-win-97-percent-of-your-trades/. The strategy consists of selling naked puts with the hope the expire out of the money. This is a high probability trade where the rewards are small and possibility of loss is large. The course outlines several adjustments to turn a losing trade into a winning trade(or at least minimize your loss) should your short put go in-the-money. His course referenced his Put Writer Option service that sends weekly recommendations with the specific put and price to sell it at. The expiration date is usually in 2-3 weeks and should generate 20-30% annualized returns. For example, he would suggest selling a 45 strike put for a credit of $.35 per contract that expires in 16 days. You would need $4500 of capital to make $35(minus fees) in 16 days which annualizes to %18. If you have a margin account, your rate of return could be much higher. Jeff is also one of the few people that shows their track records before signing up for the service and at the time I signed up he had a 100% win rate provided you count the adjustments as part of the trade. The majority of the time the puts expired out of the money and you get to keep the entire credit. If the stock price is near the strike price at expiration, he will suggest buying to close the put and keep a portion of the credit. If the stock price is below the strike price, he will issue an adjustment which was always to roll out the put for a week or two which will give another credit. Not all of the trades were perfect. Some the bid/ask spreads were a little wide and some of the options had low liquidity which made adjustments credits less than suggested by Jeff. He also held some options over earnings which exposes you to uncertainty and potentially huge losses, but he seemed to have luck on his side as most earnings moved to his favor. I figured this was a guy that had the market figured out, and I could ride his coattails to wealth. After all, how could you lose with a 100% win rate and a guardian that was managing the trades and always at the ready to adjust turning those losers into winners. Well, it appears that Jeff’s luck has run out, and he was asleep at the wheel when 2 of his trades that we had been rolling rapidly dropped 22% and 16% followed by a third trade that is currently down 11%. Meanwhile, Jeff continues suggesting to roll out 3 weeks to collect a mere .13%. What happened to all of the adjustments describes in his course? Finally after losing 20%, he recommended buying an overpriced put for short duration which has a minimal chance of recovering the premium paid for it let alone covering any of the losses already incurred. Sure, the stock price might stabilize and we could roll out for another 10 years to break even, but I think I’ll cut my losses severe ties with Jeff, yet another Options charlatan who makes a living helping others lose money. So after 2 years of following Jeff’s Put Writer Service, 3 losing trades have wiped out all of the gains plus 40% of the capital I started with.

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Mike Smith
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Mike Smith
October 12, 2018 10:12 am
Reply to  crown2001

I have followed Jeff’s trades since the beginning and what Lynn is referencing is actually not true. Jeff Tompkins’ service has been tremendously profitable and the adjustments made to the trades she references are working out quite nicely. I have full confidence in Jeff and have zero doubt he will adjust these trades into profitability. Certainly, there are many variables involved in trading, money management being a major one. Anyone can take a successful alert service such as Jeff’s and lose money with poor money management. And poor money management is exactly what would be needed to make Lynn’s statement true: “So after 2 years of following Jeff’s Put Writer Service, 3 losing trades have wiped out all of the gains plus 40% of the capital I started with.” Sorry Lynn, but I simply have not had the experience you reference. Jeff has been amazing!

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Jaded Trader
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Jaded Trader
December 16, 2018 8:27 am
Reply to  crown2001

That’s the problem with Options…relatively small return when risking 100% on each trade. I’ve seen another Options service with +90% success rate lose 100% of their trade 2 months in a row. They can win 90% of the time making say 5 or 10% but then when the occasional 100% loss comes, it wipes out 10 trades worth of profits. And if a couple of losses occur near one another you’re in the hole even though the system wins 90% of the time. This is why I’m very leery of options services even if they tout winning %s in the 90s. When you look at their individual trade results you’ll see the occasional large loss, which means you need to trade with only a small amount, which means the return is even smaller, which means you spend a lot of time making a small amount of money and worrying about it. It’s easier and more profitable to just work your day job.

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Rup
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Rup
January 20, 2019 8:22 pm
Reply to  crown2001

This mirrors my experience. The strategy and his alerts are great in a bull market. Rolling short puts is a strategy that buys you time. If the market is trending upwards your returns will be great as well as consistent. But when you have 3 or so positions whose underlyings are all 25% below your strike price, you’re in trouble. The adjustment techniques we were hoping to employ never got deployed and all you can do is hope the underlying recovers.

position size is inherently a problem with naked put strategies since your max loss is so big relative to the credit received. That’s not the fault of the above poster, it’s a problem with the strategy.

Tim
Member
Tim
November 19, 2019 4:02 pm

I have subscribed and am a current subscriber. For his signal put signal service I would say it is generally profitable. However since you are selling puts the margin requirements are large and unless you have a large account the returns will come slowly. The results he shows for his service are fantastic but are hand picked and you are left alone to do your own picking which may make it difficult to duplicate his results. If you want to duplicate his trading you will have to learn his trading style which he teaches a part of his subscriptions. I purchased his TradeTend system which comes for Thinkorswim (TOS) at over $3,000, it is also available for Metastock and I think Tradestation. Unfortunately the information provided on his website is for the Metastock version. After purchasing the TOS version I found out it does not have some of the features of the Metasotck version. The Metastock version has a report featuring the stocks that are most successful with the system and was one of the primary reasons I purchased the system. The TOS version does not have that feature, bummer. Bottom line, if you just scribe for the trade signals you should do OK. For anything else you will have to learn how he trades thru the lessons and emails he provides.

tjtjtj
Guest
tjtjtj
February 29, 2020 2:01 pm
Reply to  Tim

Tim: the system does not allow me to write a one-on-one comment, is there a way to have a private chat with you to learn more on your experience with the service?

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