“NOTE: The following presentation is based on information obtained from a closed-door meeting at the New York Stock Exchange. It contains details of the exact timeline when the next stock market crash is set to occur.”
That’s the intro to the latest pitch for Steve Sjuggerud’s True Wealth — so yes, it starts out with a pretty ridiculous promise.
That attention-grabber sounds a lot more oracular than this later bit of the spiel:
“Steve has spent a lot of time and money perfecting this early-warning indicator. As I said, he uses millions of data points – and a very sophisticated computer system – to analyze the markets.
“And right now, according to his analysis, we are fast approaching another major market crash.”
Lots of folks think we’re “fast approaching” another crash — not many can tell you exactly when it will happen, which is the implication of such a “timeline” … and despite the implications of the teaser pitch, I wouldn’t waste a lot of time worrying about whether the next crash is being preordained by insiders on Wall Street (they give the example of Henry Paulson effectively warning big investors and hedge funds about the coming implosion of Fannie Mae before the crash, but even if you think that’s happening and the big banks are operating as a cabal to premanage crises, well, that’s not the same meeting that Steve Sjuggerud is being called into).
Sjuggerud and his publisher and partner, Porter Stansberry, have been warning of the collapse of the US dollar and the likelihood of rampant hyperinflation for several years — it hasn’t happened yet, since low confidence and tighter lending standards have kept buyers too cautious to drive up prices of many goods, and since the rest of the world has continued to cling to the dollar as the US market has looked more pleasant than most of its competitors around the world, but the logic of the decline of the dollar is perfectly reasonable and it certainly might happen. I’ll even accept that it’s inevitable, and has been a long-term trend of decline like most fiat currencies whose overseers like to have a bit of inflation, but “inevitable” doesn’t mean “next month” or “next year” or “in a dramatic fashion.”
To their credit, they have continued to be invested in stocks, from what I can tell of their promotional materials, so that’s important — Steve Sjuggerud has been writing frequently of the continued asset inflation caused by the “Bernanke Asset Bubble” that’s been inflating for a couple of years, and while it hasn’t brought traditional inflation the persistently low interest rates have driven up the prices of many financial assets — including stocks. So it has been an important time to be invested in equities.
I don’t have much interest in trying to predict when the market will crash — it may well be that the behavior of human crowds is somewhat predictable over time, and that the charting and trends that many prognosticators rely on will end up being helpful in making predictions, but I don’t have much faith that any particular person will be right on such macroeconomic issues on any kind of regular basis … at least, not on the kind of timeframe you would need to trade such events. Certainly you can sell stocks or sectors that you think are clearly on dangerous ground, but to predict that about the whole of the market is difficult, indeed — and predicting a crash today (Sjuggerud isn’t doing that, just to be clear, he seems to be laying out a “this is when it will crash” scenario for the future) means you might miss out on a continuing bull market. Or maybe not … the point is, you can’t really know.
But that’s neither here nor there — I do have an interest in keeping my money diversified, and in being prepared to some extent for future crashes, and in being mindful about my dependence on the US dollar. Which is why I thought it would be worth looking for a few of the strategies that Sjuggerud is recommending and seeing how to invest in those strategies.
There are at least two different ads running for Steve Sjuggerud’s True Wealth right now — one signed by Steve about the “single greatest currency investment in the world,” and the other by his brother, Michael Sjuggerud, that teases several investment ideas. It’s Michael’s ad that talks about the “secret NYSE meeting” with 30 rich investors where Steve was invited to share his opinions and his timeline about the market, we’ll try to explain what he’s teasing but I may steal a few clues from Steve’s other ad, too.
Just because we don’t like leaving stones unturned, we can also name “Henry” the billionaire for you, the person who invited Steve to that secret NYSE meeting … here’s how they describe him:
“Keep in mind: For privacy reasons, I don’t have permission to name this billionaire here. Let’s just call him “Henry.”
“I can tell you this: Henry controls a vast business empire. It includes more than a million acres of real estate… as well as investments in agriculture, hotels, banks, and gold mining.
“Back in the 80s, Henry had a close partnership with George Soros. The partnership was dissolved after they made hundreds of percent in gains.”
Don’t know if this will do any good, but Henry the “secret” billionaire with whom Steve Sjuggerud apparently met at the NYSE must be Eduardo Elsztain, a very successful Argentine investor who did indeed help George Soros profit from investments in Argentina about 25 years ago. He’s also a subscriber to Steve’s newsletter and apparently they’re simpatico on many issues, but you’re more likely to be familiar with him as the guy behind Cresud and IRSA, the two major Argentinean real estate investments that trade in the US (Cresud, ticker CRESY, is primarily agricultural; IRSA, ticker IRS, owns malls, office buildings and hotels and develops residential properties).
Not surprisingly for a wealthy man from a country that has a history of hyperinflation, staglfation and confiscation, he’s typically quite focused on hard assets like real estate and gold. And apparently he values Sjuggerud’s perspective:
“… when Henry and his wealthy associates wanted to know when the next financial crisis is set to take place – and how to prepare for it – Steve was invited to share his analysis.
“In a minute, I’ll explain exactly how Steve knows the timeline for the next market collapse. But kee