This article originally ran on January 29, but must be circulating again in March because we’re getting questions from readers — so we re-share it with you today.
In case you’re wondering, this “value” stock is now about 25% lower than it was when this article first hit our pages (and the ad first hit my inbox), thanks to low comparable store sales and a weak forecast from the company when they released earnings a couple weeks ago. So… if you thought it was a value at $63, you might be extra-enthused with it at $46. The forward PE is now down just a whisker below 10. I haven’t looked at the latest financials or the quarterly update in any detail.
So, without further ado, our article and comments from back in January:
–from 1/29/18–
I don’t think I’ve covered a Hilary Kramer pitch recently, the last one that really got the attention of Gumshoe readers was her endless promotion of GW Pharmaceuticals (GWPH) as the “Microsoft of Medical Marijuana”… but now she’s out with some ads touting value stocks and her newer advisory called Value Authority, which I’ve never seen advertised before, so we’re going to jump on that and see what we can find.
(She does, incidentally, still like GWPH.)
So what is this “Number 1 Value stock for 2018” that she’s trumpeting now? One of the great benefits of having multiple newsletters with different focus is that you get to be right almost no matter what, so we should take with some bit of skepticism her big picture prognostications (as, of course, you should be skeptical of mine) — but, prepared to be skeptical, this is what she says:
“… let me explain why 2018 will be a great year for our value stocks.
“With the stock market at all-time highs, stocks have rarely been this expensive. According to Goldman Sachs, stocks have been more expensive only 11% of the time over the past 40 years.
“It’s no wonder.
“In just 12 months the Dow has jumped from 19,827 to over 26,000—the fastest rise on record!
“With unemployment at just 4.2%, inflation virtually nonexistent, and the U.S. tax cuts about to put billions of dollars back into American wallets and corporate coffers, the market has even more room to grow, too.
“But the big money won’t be made in growth stocks; instead, it will be in a number of select value plays.”
“Value” and “Growth” are overused terms that don’t necessarily mean anything — but in common investor parlance we usually think of value stocks as being companies that are valued primarily based on their actual assets and current earnings power, and often trading at below-average valuations based on those numbers — and of growth stocks as being companies that are valued primarily based on how much growth investors see in their future, how much we anticipate those earnings growing in the next few years, while they trade at a premium valuation to the market based on their current earnings or assets.
There’s no hard and fast rule about what “value” means, and you could easily come up with a few stocks that the value and growth camps both claim as their own, but, well, we’re human beings and we like to categorize things and take sides, so step up, place your bets! Who’s gonna win, value or growth?!
But anyway, what we’re interested in is Kramer’s pitch about her favorite value stock… which, we’re told, is trading at a super-cheap valuation and also growing like crazy. Here are the clues we get:
“Why My No. 1 Value Stock Could Triple Weight Watchers’ 389% Gains Last Year
“Just like Weight Watchers, this company is also riding the wave of unstoppable earnings growth.
“But unlike Weight Watchers, which profits in the diet sector, this company is making money hand over fist in the discount retail sector.
“This is why the world’s biggest institutional investors have been adding it to their holdings—and for one good reason.
“The retail apocalypse has been very, very good for it.”
She goes on to note that discounters are not suffering to the same extent as department stores when it comes to the “retail apocalypse”, and that’s generally true… the dollar stores and convenience stores and even fashion discounters have been leading the charge when it comes to store openings and excitement in retail, even as the far larger JC Penneys and Sears stores get shuttered.
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So that makes it easier to get space, presumably — more clues:
“… the company opened 140 stores last year while moving its poorer performers to better locations….
“… the stock is zooming past all of the indexes—up 22% in the past six months—not only beating the indexes by as much as 70% but also beating the FANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Netflix, and Google) by as much as 100%!”
Those are relative numbers, which we should always be careful of — all she’s saying is that this stock has gone up twice as fast as at least one of the FANG stocks over the past six months. The weakest FANG stock has been Facebook of late, so that just means that this stock has gone up by more than twice FB’s 9% return over the past six months. 22% is not bad performance for six months, but there are a lot of stocks that have done “70% better” than any given index over that particular time period (and yes, this “secret” stock is now up about 26% over the past six months, which is about 70% higher than the S&P’s 15% return over that time period).
But anyway, who is this bugger? Any other clues? She tells usa bout the earnings growth and the PE, which sound impressive:
“With 217% earnings growth and a 12 P/E, this is one stock that’s set to soar”
And we get lots of hints about the top institutional owners, which doesn’t usually mean anything (almost all stocks are dominated, in their ownership lists, by indexers like Blackrock and Vanguard, so we shouldn’t usually assume that those institutional investors are making qualitative assessments of this specific company), but it does help us to confirm the Thinkolator’s results… so as we note that Blackrock reportedly owns 12.23% of this company, and Vanguard 11.57%, we can confirm that yes, this “secret” stock is Big Lots (BIG).
Big Lots is a discount retailer, with relatively large stores compared to discounters like Dollar Tree or Dollar General, perhaps because they focus on housewares (furniture takes up more room than toothbrushes and toys). Our local Big Lots is next to our Local Wal-Mart, and the two are roughly equally depressing to visit (dingy, confusing, low quality junk, friendly but inadequate staff, etc), but that doesn’t mean much — it’s a dingy time of year here in the northern tundra of New England, none of us are looking our best at the moment.
Big Lots has actually been on a decline lately when it comes to store count, so presumably they overbuilt and had to pull back a bit… the past several years have all seen net reductions in store count, so Big Lots is now back to 1,430 stores as of the September quarter, the lowest number since 2011. The operating numbers have also generally trended downward or been stagnant for much of the past six years, though the past year and a half or so have been on the upswing, and the reduction in share count has helped the stock and the per-share numbers.
The 200% growth numbers shouldn’t cloud your mind too much, but analysts do see earnings growth coming — and with a relatively decent valuation, that might be enough. They are cheaper than the most similar peers like Dollar Tree and Dollar General, though they’re also performing a bit worse when it comes to growth on a per-store basis. They should also be a significant beneficiary of the federal tax cuts, since they pay a high tax rate (about 36% over the past four quarters), so that could help considerably and boost earnings by as much as 30-40% if they get the full benefit of the tax cut (they probably won’t, there are lots of other numbers that go into that — but analysts have been raising estimates for next year). And, perhaps as important as anything else, they’ve been beating analyst estimates — though since this is a retailer, their next quarter (ending on Wednesday, will be reported in early March) will be the key because that holiday period represents well over half of their annual sales and earnings.
Right now, BIG trades at a trailing PE of about 16 and a forward PE of 13, with a $1/share annual dividend that provides a yield of about 1.5% (and they have been growing the dividend, which is a good sign, so dividends and buybacks may be the meat of shareholder returns if they don’t accelerate their top line somehow). Analysts are expecting 16% earnings growth for the next five years, on average, but we should probably take that with a bit of skepticism, if only because the company has had an average drop in earnings of about 17% over the past five years. If you want to buy this one, make sure you get to know their strategy and their focus and get comfortable with the plan, because they are going through some strategic changes, it appears, in a very competitive market, and it might be a bumpy ride –so you could easily get bumped off if you aren’t sure why you were on the ride in the first place. If the analysts are right, then paying 13X forward earnings for a company growing earnings in the mid-teens is certainly a “value” stock by most metrics, and a pretty easy one to argue in favor of — assuming you have some confidence in that growth and in their business plan.
You can see their latest conference call transcript here, if you’re curious, and the press release here. The company is in the midst of refocusing its strategy a bit, including opening its “store of the future” that focuses more on some higher margin and more “winnable” businesses. The CEO also went on medical leave last month following a hospitalization, so I have no idea whether or not that will end up being a big deal (usually it isn’t, in my experience).
I haven’t seen any confirmation that they opened 140 stores last year, though that’s possible (though they’ve not opened that many in a single year in the past decade… they opened 9 in 2016, but also closed 26… so the net store count still dropped, and as of the third quarter the reported footprint of 1,430 stores was two stores lower than at the end of 2016). It is a company that already has a national presence, including several regional distribution centers that cover much of the country pretty well, so there’s no reason they can’t open more stores if they see opportunity — their store count is pretty similar to a company like TJ Maxx, but is far, far lower than the deeper discounters like Family Dollar or Dollar Tree, which are a bit smaller but have 5-10X more locations than Big Lots.
And that’s all I know about Big Lots. Think it’s a value? Think it’s a dud? Feel free to chime in with your own thoughts with a comment below.
Kramer hinted at several other stocks as the next tier of what she likes, following that “No. 1 Value Stock”, and I happened to notice one that lends itself to a quick comment — so here’s a little bonus:
From the ad:
That’s Oracle (ORCL), which is not at 15X earnings unless you back out the cash on their balance sheet (about a third of their market cap is cash and short-term investments), but it is, depending on which analyst forecasts you follow, at about 17X forward earnings now. And yes, Oracle is certainly investing in providing cloud services and is widely reported as having about 45% market share in “databases” (depending on how you segment out that market, of course — their strength is in enterprise databases), and they have a lot of overseas cash they’ll be bringing home (though they don’t pay a very high tax rate at this point, so they won’t likely get a huge boost from tax cuts going forward).
They just reported their second quarter on December 14, (they have an odd fiscal year), so we probably won’t hear from them again until mid-March. The headline concern for Oracle among investors has been “can they grow” from this very large market share, so the investment in cloud services and other areas, including through aggressive acquisitions of lots of smaller companies over the years, is their search for growth… I have no idea whether they’ll be successful or not. No one wants to face off against the famously aggressive Larry Ellison even as he enters his mid-70s, I imagine, but he is also presumably going to continue passing the leadership torch to CEOs Safra Catz and Mark Hurd over the next few years.
Hmmmm. Gonna need to do some research on their tie-ins, if any, to blockchain ventures.
I theorize the big chains like $IBM, $BR and the like are going to quickly gobble up any promising blockchain tech companies before most investors even hear of them.
Good question. The blockchain is really just a distributed database, so the response of the grandpappy of databases might be interesting… though I have no idea what Oracle’s doing on the blockchain idea, if anything.
Oooh, but maybe there’s the idea! If Big Lots changes their name to Bitcoin Retail and says they’re going to use blockchain at their cash registers, the price would probably double overnight. Even if that means each time someone checks out and buys a kiddie pool and a faux-suede blanket, it takes ten minutes to confirm the blockchain transaction and print the receipt. 🙂
$ORCL
A cursory search would seem to show that ORCL is ready to supply and implement #blockchain solutions as soon as their clients will spring for it. Here’s a link to some vague blurbs on what their blockchain services can do for you: https://www.oracle.com/cloud/blockchain/index.html#cloudservice
Looks like they’ve got some ready-to-go, out of the box platforms as well as a mention of “custom blockchain application integrations”
This interests me quite a bit, I wish blockchain opportunities weren’t so vague and murky. I’d really love a way to inexpensively invest in the ideas but things like options or the penny stocks are even more of a crapshoot to take off than with traditional tech and sectors it seems.
Do you think that every penny stock handed to us by lets say the Motley fool have ties to Agora finantial. the little pissant is getting rich from ill informed first and second time investors. it is impossible to trade penny stocks unless i sit and watch every spike. i have gone from penny proven trash to my own research and leads, heck lexington biotech called me and told me they had a date to buy like hell and gave it to me. Talk to people, text them , no more crappy penny stocks for me
Haha, still got that delirious fever from last week? You’re starting to think like one of these stock pitch letters.
Any company wants a quick boost in stock just has to mention block chain even if they don’t know what it means. I listened to a good interview about crypto and block chain on CNBC and if cryptos fail there is not much daily use for block chain technology. Of course its an advance but it is not a miracle that is going to change anyone’s life
Wow that’s a boring stock. I wonder how she came up with that one to tout. The stores are awful.
Today, 1/29, BIG hit a 1 yr high. I doubt there is much stock price increase left as it went up about 6% in the last 3 months. It only pays a 1.5% dividend, is in retail so no excitement in BIG.
Downgraded by Oppenheimer after the big run up over the past few months, FWIW: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-reasons-why-big-lots-154105730.html?.tsrc=rss
It’s up 9.5% since downgrade.
Thinkolator says it’s KEM (Kemet Corporation)
KEM was a Navellier Ultimate Growth pick in August of 2017. “Buy below $25”. Went from about 27 to 15 after recommendation by first of November. Working back towards 20 now. Just FYI. Still have small position.
What’s your take on Family Dollar or Dollar General? They seem to be opening stores faster than Starbucks!
she is a bandwagoner, Everybody knows already WTW, and who is behind it. So to follow her is to be just what everybody already in it. I don’t trust Hillary Kramer, she is not a real analyst, she i a dumb and know nothing about evaluating upcoming good company.
From a store with good deals it has become a miniature Wal-Mart
She might be touting Ollie’s Outlet (OLLI) a store equally as depressing, dingy and gloomy as BIG. They seems to be opening a lot of stores. I went to one once, that was enough for me.
That’s probably the closest comparison (though growing the top line a lot faster), but from the “insiders” data she included in the ad it’s definitely BIG.
steering clear of retail, especially Big Lots!
What is the actual mineral called Blue Gold?
Cobalt
Well, BIG had a price bump recently, and a lot of retail stocks recovered nicely since “The sky is falling” panic when Amazon bought Whole Foods, but the price seems pretty high now. I think the opportunity was before the run-up earlier this month, just like there was a nice opportunity to buy Macy’s below $20 a couple of months ago.
What I want to know is if anybody is looking at a small company that is giving Monsanto a run with disease- resistant seeds that are not GMO.
Here you go: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/reviews/technology-opportunity/a-tiny-biotech-controls-agricultural-technology-that-could-end-food-shortages-forever/
How can irregulars upload their photo?
I live here in Columbus, home of Big Lots. I like their stores and shop regularly at them. I don’t find them dingy or below standard. Don’t know if they are a good investment, but the people who have disparaged them sound like snobs who look down on stores which aren’t designed for the top 1% earners.
Could be, though I’m sure every store is different. I’ve been in hellish Wal-marts and lovely Wal-marts, too.
I second that Walmarts vary A LOT. We spent a night accidently in Merida, on the Yucatan penisula. The Walmart there would put any US Macy’s to shame: marble floors, brass hand rails that were routinely polished, and undergound parking with a convenient esculator that was made to handle a shopping cart!
Maybe the Columbus stores are kept nicer since top management may visit any time. Stores in Michigan and Pennsylvania are not that nice.
What about the American jubilee that’s being pushed
Love the K-Mart store near my house ……never a crowd in that store, and the bathroom has a Vortex Hand Dryer complete with a UV light. BEST hand dryer I have ever used!
Sometimes you can roll a bowling Ball down many aisles and not hit anyone , and the cashiers appear to be filing their nails at the registers waiting for customers …..sadly you don’t have to be the Great Karnak to see this store closing in the near future!
Yes, along with their parent company, Sears. VERY sad.
Re: “…the past several years have all seen net reductions in store count…” reminds me of the anecdote from my accounting textbook years ago about the banker who was about to lend money to a certain chain store; his wife said they were on the skids and their stores were devoid of obvious customers. The banker pointed out that their sales per square foot had been rising for a couple of years and proceeded to make the loan. Turns out that the sales per square foot were rising because they were closing stores, starting with the worst-performing ones, thereby increasing the ratio. They went bankrupt in short order. Moral: listen to one who has seen it first-hand.
I thought the new phenom was Ross Dress for Less!
FYI: Another comparison that didn’t come to mind when I wrote this: Tuesday Morning (TUES), another “special deals” discounter whose stock price chart is a bit of a cautionary tale for the segment, and which I vaguely remember being a “hot” story as a retail phenomenon maybe a decade or so ago.
Much smaller company and smaller store footprint, and probably not a particularly fair comparison to BIG, but they’ve been growing revenue over the past three years (albeit slowly) and still the stock has lost 80% of its value.
As big is biggly tanking