Become a Member

“Dark Equities: Secret of the Wealthy 1%”

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, January 22, 2008

This one comes in from Karim Rahemtulla, and it’s my favorite kind of teaser: The one where they invent a fancy new term for a relatively commonplace investment strategy, and use it to convince you that the newsletter provides a connection to the deep, hidden world of Wall Street that can unlock the riches that you know you deserve.

He’s selling a subscription service called “The 400 Report,” which will run you $1,155 at the special “discount price” (normally $2,500). And apparently, that service specializes in a special kind of investment called “Dark Equities.”

“99% of Americans Are ‘Clueless’ About This Investment… the Other 1% Is Wealthy.”

Of course, your broker is going to have no idea what “Dark Equities” are, since Rahemtulla invented the term — so your friendly neighborhood Gumshoe is here to help. Though I must confess that even though I’m quite familiar with these securities and therefore must be in this 1%, I’m afraid that I’m less than wealthy. Though my life is rich with rewards.

In the ad’s words, “Rarely does the mainstream media mention [Dark Equities]. I’ve never seen them talked about on the mainstream business shows – and I’ve been a guest on them! …”

Apparently, these trades are “… executed typically by only the most savvy and seasoned traders – people who understand you can’t make real money buying stocks the way everyone else does … I will admit, though, that when I talk to investors who do know about it (typically they’re big money types… Wall Street insiders), voices are hushed and we’re usually alone. Never in a crowd.”

OK, so do you feel like you’re super important yet? “Voices are hushed and we’re usually alone?” Seriously? OK, I don’t usually editorialize like this, but if someone tries to sell you on something with language like that either it’s illegal, or they probably think you’re not too bright.

I’m sure there are plenty of “smoke filled rooms” where secrets still change hands, but the investment being teased here is clearly no such secret — even if it is somewhat less common than regular stock and options trades.

The ad says these “Dark Equities,” which sound kind of menacing to me, frankly, are “… something like a stock… and something like an option… But this investment gives you the safety of blue chip stocks, with the explosive profit potential of options… That’s why it’s the perfect investment.”

And that there is “No better way to siphon double-, triple- and quadruple-digit gains off the market – while drastically reducing your downside risk.

Karim says he learned about the importance of this asset class from a guy named “Hank” who headed a public company and was a “Wall Street Warhorse.” I’d really like to think this is Hank Paulson, former CEO of Goldman Sachs and now Treasury Secretary, but I don’t know that.

So … what else do we know? Well, we know that Karim Rahemtulla describes himself as “one of the country’s foremost specialists in options trading.”

And from the examples he gives of using this “Dark Equity” strategy, including trades in the “Dark Equity” versions of AMD, Tyco, Interactive Corp and several others, the Gumshoe can be fairly certain that the “dark equities” being teased here are …

LEAP options.

Kind of boring, eh? Actually, there’s a bit of a giveaway in that Karim does tell us in passing that these are called “long-term equity anticipation securities” — which is actually the real name of LEAP options.

But in common practice, they are essentially stock options that are the same as other put and call stock options that you might be more familiar with — it’s just that they go further out in the future (thus the “long term” bit).

LEAP options all expire in January, and they can go up to three years into the future, though one and two years are more common.

If you’re not familiar with an option — and these are “American style” options, not the less flexible variety generally available in European bourses — they are contracts that confer the right to buy or sell a particular stock at a particular price before a particular date. Just the right, not the obligation, which means the maximum risk is fully defined.

So an IACI 2009 $30 LEAP option, for example, would give you the right to buy 100 shares of IACI on or before the expiration date in January, 2009 for $30 per share. You can exercise that right any time in between now and the expiration date if you choose (in which case you have to put up the cash to buy those shares at $30), or, as is more commonly done, you can just sell the contract to reap your (hopefully) profits.

If you bought such an option today, it would cost you something between $120 and $155, or $1.20-1.55 per share (that’s the current bid and ask for that option, and one contract is 100 shares). IACI is currently trading just under $24, so if you buy that option you’re betting that the shares will go up by something over 30% in the next year (the shares have to go to at least $31.20 for the option to break even, though they almost always trade at a premium to the actual intrinsic value — that premium is the time value, or what you’re paying for the time to wait for the stock to appreciate).

LEAP call options are certainly more likely to be considered as relatively long term options than are regular options, which usually have expirations within the next six months or so — and you pay more for them, because you’re buying more time for your price to be hit. Buying the right to buy 100 shares of IACI at $30 in April of this year instead, for example, would cost considerably less at somewhere between $15 and $35.

And if you want to be even safer — though by risking more money — you can buy “in the money” LEAP options. This is still far from being equivalent to a “blue chip” in terms of safety, I would argue, because it’s still quite easy to lose money, but you could, for example, buy the $20 strike price IACI Jan 2009 calls for something between $550 and $620 per contract at the current bid and ask. That means your option is already in the money, and you’re only paying about $2 per share in time premium to get any of the share’s appreciation this year. Of course, if you’re wrong and the shares drop to $22 at expiration from the current $24, your call option’s vaue would be expected to fall by 70% or so instead of the 10% that the shares dropped.

For those of you who already trade options and know them well, I apologize for simplifying — I just like to try to share the basic facts as I understand them. If you want to subscribe to an options trading service, more power to you — but don’t subscribe just to find out what a long term option is … sorry, I mean, what a “dark equity” is.

Are you getting our free Daily Update
"reveal" emails? If not,
just click here...


What’s the benefit? The same as with all options: Leverage without borrowing, and a predetermined maximum risk. So you get to control 100 shares for a fraction of the price of 100 shares, and you cannot lose any more than you paid for the option — for our example above, if IACI remains well below $30 for all of the next year, you’ll be out your $155 or whatever you paid, but no more. On the flip side, it is of course quite easy — and commonplace — to actually lose your entire investment with “out of the money” options (the ones with a strike price above the current price — the ones that really give you a big leverage boost if you make the right call on the direction of a stock).

That said, options are often a significant trap for individual investors — which is why trading services like this can often convince people to give them a try. The combination of outsize returns (it’s certainly well within the realm of possibility to have 4,000% returns on one trade as is teased in this ad), and controlled risk, and the feeling of being a super special extra in-the-know trader can often get even a rational investor excited enough to get too heavily involved in options trading.

And just to put in a small warning, the thrill of a 10,000% gain on a single trade can easily be the worst thing that ever happened to an individual investor in the long run — because then you want more and more gains like that, and you put more and more of your cash into options. It is a very addictive form of gambling, in many ways.

And if we happen to have a year — as some people think is coming right now — when stocks go down or tread water for months and months and months, it’s quite possible for your whole portfolio of LEAP options — should you choose to build one — to go to zero, either slowly or quickly, depending on the individual stocks. In those markets (and most of the time, in the opinion of many professionals), the people who make money are the ones who sell option contracts and reap that incremental income, not the people who buy the options contracts. (That selling of options on your own stocks is often used as an income strategy, as per the “California Overnight” or “Transfer” dividends that Stansberry has been teasing lately).

Options prices in general move much more quickly than even the most volatile stock, so if you happen to own those IACI options and the stock for some reason reports awful news that drives the shares down by 15% next October, it’s entirely possible that the options could go down by 50, 80 or even 100% and you might well have no opportunity to sell out quickly to limit your losses.

Many options contracts have extremely low volume and only trade a few times a month, so there’s no guarantee that there will be a buyer at all when you want to sell. And that gets into the difficulty with any options trading service of any size, too, because if there are even just a couple hundred active subscribers they could radically run up any particular option contract that gets recommended — and while it’s true that you sometimes will have trouble buying any “recommended” stock by a newsletter before it runs up on the news of the recommendation, that same problem can be much more acute for options, so it’s quite possible that even if the paper returns of an options service are very good, there might be very few subscribers who were able to actually match those returns with real trading.

That said, I do have a small percentage of my portfolio in long term call options, often in LEAPs, as a way to leverage ideas that I feel particularly strongly about. And I do enjoy the occasional return of several thousand percent, which keeps you going when the majority of your options positions end up being worthless.

And since Rahemtulla didn’t tease any particular LEAP option play that he’s recommending you put on (he teased that he would tell you “in 17 minutes,” which I guess is the length of time it takes for the average person to send in their credit card and read the recommendation?). He does say that he watches “trends” and has a list of 18 “profit predictors” that he uses to determine when to recommend a particular “Dark Equity” for his 400 Report (including stuff like market direction, and insider buying — you can see the ad if you want the whole list), and that he has amassed a huge number of successful trades.

So … imagine my disappointment, the mysterious “Dark Equities” are plain old LEAP options … and this is just another options trading service. I have a hard time telling which of these services might be any good, since they of course all claim dramatic gains and most of them fail to admit that many of their trades go to zero. Add on to that the fact that most options are low volume securities, and that an adviser’s recommendation could significantly boost the volume and price of a particular contract if he touted it in his newsletter, and I end up being very wary of all of these services.

I’m sure some of them are worthwhile, though, so if you are a nimble options trader and think Karim’s 400 Report or another one of these services is worth your money, please let us know.

guest

12345

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

41 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Wim van Dalen
Guest
Wim van Dalen
January 23, 2008 5:39 am

Thank you very much for the quality information you give about the
“Dark Equities” service.

I know a lot of of all kinds of investments…but when I saw this advertisement I did get again a feeling of missing some holy grail.

The teasers which are used today are becoming more and more unethical…a covered call strategy they call one night dividends or whatever.

I have been a subscriber of a lot of investment letters or options services.
And when I became a subsriber a lot of times you do not see that insane profits they advertise in options or so.More and more losers or theoretical wins.

Your remarks about volume in options is so right…about the timevalue which can disappear very fast etc.

One more thanks to you.

Wim van Dalen

Add a Topic
152
Add a Topic
570
Add a Topic
570
G IMBURG
Guest
G IMBURG
January 23, 2008 4:09 pm

I love option strategies and the leap is excellent. I look for opportunity first, then try to devise an option strategy. As an example,half the market was bullish and half bearish about a month ago. The S and P was around 1400. The risk was the S&P would go both directions.One call and one put at the same price netted great gains on both sides of the 1400 trade. Leap strategies give time to trade and sell when the option is profitable. Thinking through the Wall Street noise can give give strong clues to future movement and opportunity, and wise use of options can increase your gain by many factors.

Add a Topic
571
Add a Topic
571
Add a Topic
570
brenda
brenda
January 23, 2008 4:15 pm

Thanks to both of you for the comments — and Imburg, I agree with you in spirit — and I think the key word in your comment is “wise.”

👍 7
Mahkel
January 23, 2008 6:42 pm

I’ve attended an Oxford Seminar 2 years ago where Karim talked about LEAPs in bounds, he’s part of the show there (or was). That’s when I got interested. At the time his hard and fast lecture was double-dutch to me, but then I subscribed to a low-coast teaser-account for half a year. During that time he walked his brethren through a pizza-play that was typical of what on earth can happen with LEAPS. His key-issue was, and I agree with him, to determine your exit-strategy on profit-taking and perhaps sticking with something like 50%, rather than waiting for the thousands of percent return that could be had if there were any takers, etc.

I’ve read up and learned more and more on the above and just got out on a successful Cmed Jan09 play as well as a GG Jan10 that I should maybe had kept in place. Both returned good money though, and sanity prevailed. This time.

Excellent article, Gumshoe. Keep up the good work. Please! <:)

Chris
Guest
Chris
January 24, 2008 1:07 pm

This service/newsletter has been around for a while… Agora/Mt. Vernon/Oxford Club used to call it (creatively enough) the LEAPS Trader. After following these cats for a while I notice that they like to change the name of the services every once in a while.

sequential
Guest
sequential
January 24, 2008 2:09 pm

I believe Karim Rahemtulla has 3 investment letters based on options
ect have any of you tried his services and if so how has your success rate been ?
Thanks Sequential

Add a Topic
569
Add a Topic
570
Jake Witmer
Guest
January 24, 2008 4:44 pm

Thanks! I suspected Rahemtulla was talking about LEAPS. Hilarious. (I am a total novice stock trader) The newsletter is psychologically designed to be very effective (If it had only cost $30 or so, I might have signed up for it, instead sanity prevailed when I saw that he wanted $1,500! and I googled “dark equities” and got your article back -LOL). A friend of mine subscribes to “Investment U” by Mark Skousen which sells similar types of hype. I get their promos in my email all the time. I’m not saying that there’s no value there, there may well be, but for now, I’m going to invest my money in actual stocks and options that I think are winners, not advice from other people who seem to be making their money selling newsletters.

Thank you sooooo much for your clear explanation!

-Jake

Add a Topic
1340
Add a Topic
5971
Add a Topic
256
A. Haque
Guest
January 25, 2008 12:05 am

Well, I don’t know what to say except thank you for enlightening us with your simple coal-face explanation. Like many of your readers I found the “dark equity” a curiosity as I too had never heard of options being christened with such an exotic name.

I have several years of experience in the market but I get very wary of returns of such magnitude as I know the obverse fact is that there are lots of losers which regrettably no one talks about. I know of an individual who lost over $300k several months after attending an options course.

The more I read the ad the more I started getting suspicious. When I searched for ‘Dark equity” under Metacrawler I got nothing but Karim’s ad and only after several further attempts I finally came to your site.

Obviously ethics in ads, especially from Karim and his crew, are a rare commodity. Maybe they might consider making a killing by trading in it.

Thank you once again and you now have a regular visitor.

Add a Topic
570
Add a Topic
570
Add a Topic
5916
Marilyn
Guest
Marilyn
January 25, 2008 9:45 pm

Once again brilliant, I appreciate your commentary. Seems I’m on everyone’s hit list. I got this one in my e-mail and was soooooo appreciate to have your commentary in my e-mail too.

You’re like a fuzzy baby blanket that keeps the spooky boogie man away.

Harold A
Member
January 26, 2008 2:23 pm

You’ve won a reader here as well.

I, too, thought he was talking about options until he said he wasn’t. Google pulled up your site and the secret is revealed. Thanks, much.

Harold

Add a Topic
570
coolrappingdude
Guest
coolrappingdude
January 27, 2008 2:46 pm

hey guys,
thanks so much for shedding the light on this.
I personally have traded options for about 15 years.
very few instances of success.
I think they are so very risky, and you really have to be a Pro
to make money at it.
so, Dark Equities or not, you guys please be carefull. this market has no mercy.

Add a Topic
570
Chuck Davenport
January 27, 2008 5:18 pm

Thank you for clearing up the hype! It is so easy to get caught up in the excitement. In the end if it sounds too good it usually is. Do you have a good web site that you recommend for learning candlesticks?
Thanks
Chuck

John in Deland Florida
Guest
January 28, 2008 2:11 am

Gee….I have been buying and selling these long term options for over two years and I did not even know they were not jusr normal regular old options that just had distant expiration dates….JOHN

Add a Topic
570
Add a Topic
570
Andrew
Guest
Andrew
January 28, 2008 7:47 pm

I actually like investing in options…just small bets of 500-1000 at a time…

But I really wish I knew whether or not some of these services even provide a slight edge…

Terry
Guest
Terry
January 28, 2008 10:42 pm

I have been with the Oxford Club for a while. Followed the advice without risking any money for a year. I can say I have made good money each year for 5 years now. Have some disappointments with the service, where I believe certain services I should have access to, but don’t after paying the highest level membership. Yet, overall I believe it is some good investment advice…better than my broker gives! As in anything, research and make a wise decision.

Add a Topic
366
Azam Khan
Member
Azam Khan
February 6, 2008 11:56 am

THANK YOU!!!! That’s all I can say for demystifying a well-written email teaser being slammed into my email box every few days. Keep up the good work!!!

marc
Guest
February 7, 2008 11:54 am

i too say thanks for the important information. i was tempted to try their their program. i will now look elsewhere.

babs
Guest
babs
February 7, 2008 3:16 pm

A brief word form a similarly inclined “gumshoe.” As an obsessive researcher, I try to find key words in the teasers then find the stock or play. This has resulted in some interesting trails. You probably already have found the Albanian mining company – Tirex Resources – TXX:TSX.V – and the oil exploration company that now benefits from resolution of the water border dispute off Uruguay – CGX Enery – OYL.U:TSX.V. In researching the “Dark equity” teaser (before I found your site) I found “dark pools” at http://www.advancedtrading.com. Spent way too much time looking at the site but was fascinated. Do you have any idea what that’s all about?
I have tried more than a few subscription services but have cancelled before the end of the trial period because none of them provided promised returns or offered any unique insights. I have concluded that I will have to do my own research and live with my decisions.

Add a Topic
5971
Add a Topic
496
Add a Topic
359
brenda
brenda
February 7, 2008 3:30 pm

Thanks babs — yes, I’ve seen that “dark pools” stuff but haven’t looked at it closely. I have written about both of those other teasers, in case anyone’s interested:
http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2007/11/albanias-forgotten-commodity-treasure.html
and
http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2007/12/seven-year-blockade-lifted-from-gunboat.html

👍 7
Mark
Guest
Mark
February 14, 2008 12:42 pm

Thanks very much for a very informative article…I first heard about this in a news letter I have been getting for a few weeks from a goofball doctor’s newsletter. This confirms what I thought all along…was that a duck I just heard?? His web link is below.

WC Douglass (realhealth@healthiernews.com)

We use cookies on this site to enhance your user experience. By clicking any link on this page you are giving your consent for us to set cookies.

More Info  
4
0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x