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Zenith Trading Circle (defunct)

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340 Comments
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rmiken49
Member
rmiken49
September 21, 2016 3:40 pm

I am familiar with his articles with Sure Money including recommendations. His suggestions for stocks to short with puts seem to be spot on. They also align with some of my research on the same stocks such as TSLA, DB, VRX, NFLX. I have reviewed his video and invitation to join his new Zenith Trading Circle which I am considering. His education plus long time experience at many levels seem to be substantial and thus encouraging to spend the money to join. Not sure about the potential levels of money to be made as noted in the video/transcript. Been there many times before with other services.

However, I have been a member of Elliott Wave International(EWI) for over seven years which has helped me to judge market “waves” and extremely beneficial in judging when to buy puts or calls (use their Pro Service as a guide). Michael Lewitt’s commentary and philosophy do align with EWI including the ability to short via puts some of the really bad actors. Many times I had hoped to catch companies far enough ahead to benefit before they failed. I did so with Bear Stearns in 2008.

I will likely subscribe to Zenith but also using EWI as a safety net to help align with any recommendations from Michael Lewitt and his Zenith. I know that the next several years will be tough on the markets. Perhaps the Zenith Trading Circle may offer additional opportunities during this period. We’ll see.

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Ralph
Member
Ralph
September 28, 2016 5:02 pm
Reply to  rmiken49

so far so good he immediately started sending what puts to buy at what price. This is a new service it only started on the 20th of Sept 2016 BTW most of his suggestions are out to Jan 2017 so should know fairly quickly and hopefully within the 90 day return policy if they make some gain. I am buying 10 to 25 puts at a time. Not a whole lot of money at risk but rewards could be substantial and if the carbon copy part works maybe repeat the process two or three times.

motorhead
motorhead
October 8, 2016 11:28 am
Reply to  Ralph

Ralph, the real test (assuming the picks are good) is can you get the prices he recommends on the way in and out.

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Gerry
Guest
Gerry
September 29, 2016 5:22 pm
Reply to  rmiken49

Thank-you everybody for your reply as to the validity and experience with Michael Lewitt and his program. I tend to agree with his philosophy that many companies are just scrapping by from the 2008 fall out or present day companies that were launched with really bad business plans ie Go Pro. It amazing how investors can jump on board with just the slightest blurbs from the media without thinking things through. Also as mentioned companies are 5 times more in debt than they were 5 years ago. it would good to keep an eye on the interest rates as a rise in rates may cause defaults on loans which would start the fall of a large # of companies that are sitting on the edge.

Along with Michaels formulas and his many years of experience as a lone wolf thinker the climate seems right for the purchase of puts on failing companies. There is risk in everything but I will be stepping forward to join The Zenith Trading Circle. I will let you informed on my own personal experience as time unfolds.

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Ed Douglas
Guest
Ed Douglas
October 17, 2016 3:04 pm
Reply to  Gerry

I agree many companies have been scraping by, however they’ve been doing that since ’09 and those puts are declining assets. If nothing changes next few months they will automatically decline in value, perhaps expire worthless. If you are convinced stock will ultimately go down you’d be A LOT further ahead selling long dated well out of the money calls. you get same level of risk, but using someone else’s money.

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Bobby
Guest
Bobby
November 20, 2016 2:44 am
Reply to  Ed Douglas

Selling calls and buying puts ARE NOT at the same level of risk. Selling calls has unlimited downside risk. Puts only risk is the money invested.

jperkins12
Member
jperkins12
December 5, 2016 2:10 am
Reply to  Ed Douglas

Ed Douglas; Not familiar with “long dated well out of the money calls”. Please explain, and give an example for us rookies.

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rmiken49
Member
rmiken49
December 5, 2016 9:12 pm
Reply to  jperkins12

Long dated out of the money calls might be C trading at $57 dollars today and buying June calls at a strike price of $75. Long dated puts just the opposite with long dated puts say Jan 2018 puts at a strike price of $20. You can buy the puts or calls at a lower price minimizing the capital at risk.(note if the markets are uncertain, this longer time period can perhaps provide the time needed to profit)

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Hank
Guest
Hank
December 14, 2016 12:07 pm
Reply to  jperkins12

Long dated…. 6 months or more until expiration.
OTM or “Out of the money”…. means the option has no intrinsic value at the moment…. strike price + the premium > current price for a call, or strike – premium is less than the current price for a put. Example. If you bought a $10 Jun 2018 put on ABC for $1 then you would need the stock to fall below $9 for the put to be profitable.

OTM options are like lottery tickets. Cheap, with high potential reward and very unlikely to pay off.

I hope that helps.

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Hank
Guest
Hank
December 14, 2016 11:49 am
Reply to  Ed Douglas

Ed, I agree with Bobby. Selling calls is MUCH riskier than buying an OTM put. The risk in buying a put is limited to the premium you pay. Selling a call has theoretically UNLIMITED risk. If you sell a $5 call for $1, your gain is limited to the $1 premium you receive at the time of the sale. If that stock rises to $100, you’ll be on the hook for the $94 bucks per share ($100 – ($1 premium + $5 strike price)). Selling calls on a stock that rises is like picking nickels off a rail road track. Sooner or later, a train will come along and kill you. You could mitigate this risk with a bear call spread but in thinly traded stocks with wide bid/ask spreads, even this may not be very profitable but it WILL be FAR less risky (max risk will be the difference between the strikes reduced by the amount of premium you receive).

Friends don’t let friends sell naked calls.

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Ted White
Member
September 21, 2016 11:10 pm

Hey rmiken49……….I also watched Michael Lewitt’s Zenith Trading Circle video tonight. You know, they all sound great in the videos, but that’s why we have Shoegum to help us save ourselves from the hype. I haven’t seen anything else about his service but have read his blogs. Seems to be a smart guy and who knows, maybe this service will be great. A few things though. First, these trades he posts are back tested which I have a disdain for. They come up with an idea and find stocks in the past that match their criteria to prove their system. If they would have created a system and traded it for some period of time with positive results, I would be more inclined to follow along. Another thing. Why do these people have to talk for an hour to persuade people to buy their products? I know they believe the longer they talk, the more people believe they have time invested in the talk and are more inclined to join. Why can’t they sum it all up in 20-30 minutes….max. Lay out the product, describe the science behind it and leave it up to the listener to decide.
If you do decide to join the service, please keep us up to date with your results. IF it is as good as he says, you should make a lot of $. Good luck.

Ralph
Member
Ralph
September 28, 2016 5:05 pm
Reply to  Ted White

see my comments, its too early but I am following his alerts and buying the puts he recommends, I add some of my own like $70 Jan 2016 puts on SVXY, just can’t see VIX staying so low for much longer,

archives2001
archives2001
September 29, 2016 5:46 pm
Reply to  Ralph

VIX dropped back to around 12 two or three days ago and then bumped to 16, now back to 14. Definitely beginning to move!

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loko
Guest
loko
November 30, 2016 8:29 am
Reply to  Ralph

RALPH ,how many days out to experotation and how many strike out of the money, he recomends buying those puts in his service?

Ron
Guest
Ron
September 30, 2016 9:15 am
Reply to  Ted White

They talk for a hour and repeat phases so the mind is imprinted with the discussion or numbers as in 94.5%. Ever promo has this in common.

Tobey
Guest
Tobey
October 5, 2016 9:13 pm
Reply to  Ted White

Ted White — Very cogent comments, thanks. Agree with the critique of the time consuming marketing pitch and they don’t allow you to fast forward to get to the end, and it you don’t let it play out you don’t get to the end…. Nevertheless, I joined last night for $2250 and called back later to note that I saw here a $1950 price: they agreed to return $200 very willingly. I am attracted to a strategy that focuses on failures these days given all the opinions flying that predict a big financial bust coming with all hell coming apart. I will focus over the next 30 days and see whether I should ride it out further.

willie
Guest
willie
December 4, 2016 10:06 am
Reply to  Tobey

well hoe has it been going

Kyle Mili
Guest
Kyle Mili
December 18, 2016 6:05 pm
Reply to  Tobey

Toby,
I just listed to his video for the first time. He seems to have his act together. I see you started his service around Oct 5, 2016. How have things been working out? Are all of his recommendations correct? What kind of percentage is he batting?
Thanks
Kyle

harach
Member
harach
September 22, 2016 1:50 am

I am also looking at the Zenith Trading Circle but not sure if I will join. I like Michael Lewitt, but really don’t care for Money Map Press, or the rest of their writers. I believe Michael still publishes The Credit Strategist, and it’s much cheaper at $425 per year; not sure if it will contain the same info or be wound up (500 Zenith subscribers at $1995 is almost a million dollars, and I read my email a day late so in theory Zenith would be sold out by now). Any other thoughts out there?

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Larry
Member
Larry
December 4, 2016 11:28 pm
Reply to  harach

Just watched the Zenith video tonight. It was distributed through moneymappress. Must be more than 500 by now or no one is buying into it.

Horris
Guest
Horris
February 8, 2017 5:25 am
Reply to  Larry

Really? Gosh what a shocker, you “just” got yours in September of 16′, and I’m sure in the sales slop you were told to, “act now” because, “he was only going to accept 500” and you’ll “never see this kind of opportunity again.” RIGHT? Wouldn’t you know, I’ve gotten “TWO” opportunities now, both of which claimed all the above. So, I’m pretty sure, whether dumb-dumb suckers threw away their cash in 2016, or had I in my 2016 opportunity, or the 2017 opportunity I just got, I am quite certain, the limited pool of opportunities of “500,” will still have openings in 2018, even 19′, no matter how many fools fall for the anciently used, worn out sales dribble.
Will people ever learn? Someone made a very good point that every one ought to hammer into their skull. If this is such a grand program/investment methodology, then why does “he” the one “giving away its secrets” have to resort to “examples” that are, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, etc., years old? NO, you’re better off starting out with a small account investment in so called, “pennies” and shorting some here and there until you’ve built it up to where you can make some mass cash on one or two shorts.

jperkins12
Member
jperkins12
December 5, 2016 2:18 am
Reply to  harach

harach:
I’m very tempted to join, but the question always hangs in my mind. If these guys are making the percentage returns that they claim, why are they wasting time writing these articles and making these videos? Just my two cents.

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rmiken49
Member
rmiken49
December 5, 2016 9:33 pm
Reply to  jperkins12

I joined September 28th and cancelled my membership today for a full refund ($1950). I do like Zenith recommendations. But so noted in my other posts, it is not always good timing to act on each weekly recommendation. There has been very little movement in the weekly trades (related to making good profits) for the most part. The markets are still in a rising trend and not always the best time to buy puts. Yes, longer dated out of the money puts gives us some time in hopes that the markets will crater and some of the trades will falter under the downward pressure of a falling market. Just hasn’t happened yet. I have also observed that the ZEN buy price is generally lower thus easier for ZEN to claim a larger percent profitability. One recent recommendation was $0.07 before his recommendation. After the trade was issued the price jumped to over $0.25 after thousands of options were purchased which was over the $0.20 price limit recommended. So, it doesn’t matter if there are 100, 200 or 500 members. If someone with deep pockets is buying tens of thousand of option contracts on each weekly trade, the price goes up. However, the ZEN base price is still $0.07. However, still plenty of time to make profits if time prevails and the markets trend down before the option expires. As noted in other posts, it is beneficial to know some technical market approaches to determine if timing is best for each weekly trade. I have some profits using the info from ZEN recommendations but usually shorted dated puts closer to in the money strike price.

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S Milton
Guest
S Milton
December 21, 2016 9:23 pm
Reply to  rmiken49

i too cancelled my membership last week. My greatest regret is not starting paper trading the recommendations to see how effective the service can be. Instead i went in on most recommendations with my cash and to date have lost nearly $10,000. Tough lesson learned when getting on to a new service,you must test before invest.No doubt Mr Lewitt is a very smart guy ,but i found it insulting with so many trades out of the money ,repeated offers came out to spend more money for a lifetime membership offer to “expire soon so act now.”
i will never make that mistake again, will check to see when this turns around but for now , i plan to put 1950 fee to better use and regain my losses.

rmiken49
Member
rmiken49
December 22, 2016 10:17 am
Reply to  S Milton

I have been in several trading services over the last 10 years and still have a lifetime membership in Agora Financial (started out as a “Taipan” lifetime). It does help to have some technical understanding of how the markets work before joining any service. In my experience it is not always prudent to jump into every trade offered each week or each day. Some of these services are beneficial since they do the research and save time. Several option trading services will offer naked puts and calls depending on which interim direction the market is headed. I believe the timing with Zenith is they thought that the markets were going to fall sooner than later. We could still have several months of an up trending market with some corrections. Never productive to go against the trend. Nimble traders can work with the transitional market trends with puts and calls. Takes a lot of patience.

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Michael Hanratty
Guest
Michael Hanratty
September 22, 2016 1:38 pm

My beef is after sitting and listening to a pitch which was …endless …i got the point in the first 5 mins ,i was considering taking the plunge and forking over $1,950 US ..but right away i’m threatened with the ” act now because a few months from now it will cost me $4,995 ” . Yeah right …big money to be made …..by Lewitt . Sorry brother bad taste !
Really he’s a smart guy that’s for sure, and he knows how to make money. Just not my money .

Dorel Hunt
November 30, 2016 9:16 pm

I watched today and price is $2,150 w Best hurry only a limit of 500 members nice price increase, Leary

jperkins12
Member
jperkins12
December 5, 2016 2:20 am
Reply to  Dorel Hunt

Dorel Hunt: Mr. Lewitt has absolutely nothing to lose by publishing this video. I’m thinking he is making a lot more money doing that than trading stocks.

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Andrew
Guest
December 3, 2016 4:16 pm

If you want to skip the video but get the content… try to close the window. You’ll get a “Are you sure you don’t want this great deal” message and if you click “wait” then you’ll get the exact script in a sales funnel page.

I prefer reading it this way much better… plus you can scroll down and see what they actually want you to pay.

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George Philips
Guest
September 22, 2016 3:12 pm

I too watched the video but none of the 5 stocks he listed comes up with anything on Google or any page where you can look up stock symbols. The only one that shows up is RCPI

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BobbyKid
Guest
BobbyKid
September 22, 2016 10:27 pm
Reply to  George Philips

Go Pro and Netflix are still out there

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rmiken49
Member
rmiken49
September 23, 2016 10:24 am
Reply to  George Philips

Most of the stock symbols in the Lewitt script can be found at Marketwatch.com. Others such as Bidz.com, Dex Media, Raser Technologies and Metricom have been delisted from the major exchanges. They all seem to be operational with web presence but not as public companies on any major stock exchanges.

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rmiken49
Member
rmiken49
September 22, 2016 3:42 pm

I do understand the precautions from the other commenters. After a few examples from the video, I’m either convinced or not. Usually, I just look at a portion of the script part and go to the cost details. Video is too long (like most of them). From their script, they indicate a 90 day free trail. If you keep the auto renew, the price stays the same. (The 500 member deal is likely part of the hype to hurry up and join) I do not currently subscribe to any services from Money Map Press but I am a lifetime member of the Agora Financial group. I use Elliott Wave as a technical guide for any of the recommendations from Agora. Many of there recommendations, I usually test with my Elliott Wave and adjust accordingly (only naked puts or calls). The Zenith Trading Circle I am still considering to test drive for the 90 days. Not sure how long it will take to show any profits. Apparently, it could take months or more. Patience is a virtue with any of these services and snap decisions often lead to losses. I will post here if and when I join

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joned
Guest
joned
September 23, 2016 11:34 pm
Reply to  rmiken49

Thank you for the fdback

Kyle Mili
Guest
Kyle Mili
December 18, 2016 6:27 pm
Reply to  rmiken49

Did you end up joining?
How’s it going?
Are things working out well?
Thanks

rmiken49
Member
rmiken49
December 18, 2016 10:30 pm
Reply to  Kyle Mili

I joined on September 28th and cancelled on December 5th. All the Zenith recommendations seem to be spot on. However, since the markets have been transitioning through a topping process in the last many weeks, most of the recommendations have not fared very well. The timing for this service seems to be too soon to benefit from any type of satisfying profits on the downside. If you read the posts on this site you will note that several have lost money. As a member, I did lose money but very limited since I paper traded most of the recommendations. I have other technical services that have predicted a still rising market and from that determined it was not a good time to buy puts. Yes, the companies being recommended are very poor but in a rising market, even the bad ones may trade slightly up to sideways but still not profitable for puts. I have seen the new video and including comments through Michael Lewitt’s Sure Money, I understand he will recommend a few calls through Zenith that are more compliant with this still rising market. I do believe that we will be entering a major bear market at some point soon. This might be a better time to subscribe to this service say after the market drops 10-15%, recovers a bit before joining. I may get back in when the Zenith service is more in alignment with a market that is turning down. That could be a few more weeks or a few months.

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kgarvey
September 22, 2016 6:42 pm

Also looking at the program. Does anyone know or suspect what Lewitt means by ‘carbon trade’?

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oldgopher
oldgopher
September 23, 2016 1:29 am
Reply to  kgarvey

Lewitt buys out of the money puts on the stocks.

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WFP
Guest
WFP
September 23, 2016 3:00 am
Reply to  kgarvey

“Carbon trade” sounds like puts to me…

james
Guest
james
October 2, 2016 11:25 pm
Reply to  WFP

Puts with rollover into longer dated puts

jperkins12
Member
jperkins12
December 5, 2016 2:24 am
Reply to  james

james:
What do you mean by “”with rollover into longer dated puts”?
I”m a rookie regarding these option trades.

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rmiken49
Member
rmiken49
December 5, 2016 9:47 pm
Reply to  jperkins12

One of the recent recommendations was MTDR with a December put strike price of $17.50. The trade was down over 50%. With option expiration nearing, he recommended selling the December put and buying the March 2017 $17.50 put. Once you buy the March put, you add the losses of the December put into the total purchase price of the March put. The March expiration provides more time for the company MTDR to drop in price and hopefully bring the put into profitability. This is what he calls “carbon trading”. So, then it is a matter of the market tanking at some point before March for the put to be profitable.

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Kyle Mili
Guest
Kyle Mili
December 18, 2016 6:31 pm
Reply to  rmiken49

Around what date did he recommend the MTDR put of $17.50?
Thanks

rmiken49
Member
rmiken49
December 18, 2016 11:29 pm
Reply to  Kyle Mili

November 29, 2016
Action to Take:
1) Sell-to-close MTDR Dec 2016 $17.50 puts (MTDR161216P00017500).

2) Use a limit order to buy-to-open MTDR March 2017 $17.50 puts (MTDR170317P00017500) at $1.10 or less GTC (good till canceled).

The MTDR December puts were at a loss and rolled into the March 2017 $17.50 puts. That position is currently valued at $.58 with the original buy price at $1.10. Currently at a loss of 47% (not figuring in broker fees) Also, not considering the losses calculated into the rolled over price into the March puts.

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rmiken49
Member
rmiken49
September 23, 2016 10:32 am
Reply to  kgarvey

Carbon trades appear to mean similar buy and sell points multiple times considering the fluctuations in the stock market exchanges over time. A poorly operating company may fall more during the down times. However, there is always a recovery period (bounce) offering another buy point (puts) before the next market direction down. Timing these events is crucial. Potentially, Michael Lewitt would advise the correct buy and sell points.

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kgarvey
September 23, 2016 3:26 pm
Reply to  rmiken49

Sounds like it requires precise timing, the kind of which we’d expect from a clairvoyant. Risky, for an unproven strategy, regardless of back testing data. Think I’ll wait for more definitive data before moving on this opportunity.

rmiken49
Member
rmiken49
September 23, 2016 3:51 pm
Reply to  kgarvey

It is prudent to be cautious before spending the money on any of these newsletter/investment advice services. It is likely that other services such as this one will appear as more indicators surface that the markets are changing directions from up to down. The Zenith Trading Circle will benefit more so as markets top out and move down. I have found it is beneficial to develop one’s entry and exit strategies that coincide with current market variables. I am primarily looking at Lewitt’s ability to select stocks that are primed to fall when the mood of investors change for jubilant to sour. I did call today to verify the 90 day trial and refund if not satisfied.(didn’t ask if was a full or prorated refund). Even a lifetime membership for $3900:).

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jperkins12
Member
jperkins12
December 5, 2016 2:27 am
Reply to  rmiken49

And what was the answer when you called, rmiken49?

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rmiken49
Member
rmiken49
December 5, 2016 1:59 pm
Reply to  jperkins12

I cancelled my membership today. They are refunding my membership[ in full back to my credit card. They very politely asked my reasons. I responded with I did not think this was good timing for this particular service…. I have not made any money with Zenith with exception of small losses with my limited participation in trade recommendations.

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kgarvey
September 23, 2016 5:18 pm
Reply to  kgarvey

I’m taking the plunge, based primarily on the 90 guaranteed unconditional refund. It’s not without considerable trepidation. StockGumShoe has been real good to me in providing objective analysis. In return, I’ll let my fellow Irregulars and others know of my experience with this service.

Neil
Guest
Neil
September 25, 2016 12:04 pm
Reply to  kgarvey

I would be very interested in hearing from someone who has used the service for a few weeks.

Beepger
Guest
November 26, 2016 9:24 pm
Reply to  Neil

Join the discussion

Beepger
Guest
November 26, 2016 9:41 pm
Reply to  Neil

I have been an active Zenith member for almost a couple months. New recommended puts are out of the money with 2 to 6 month time window and are sent each week. It seems typically critical to act quickly to obtain the contracts at the lowest unit price with one or two exceptions. I have been able to buy all but one reco since joining at or under the buy up to limit. SCTY was just acquired by TSLA at which point the put value fell off a cliff. Michael advises to allow time for trades to work and that yes there will be some losers. At the moment the stronger than expected market has had way negative impact on holdings values. Hoping things will turnaround in a meaningful way as I am several thousand dollars in the red as of this writing. The strategy makes a lot of sense to me. The market however of often does not behave as expected. Happy holidays.

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Adam James Levine
Guest
Adam James Levine
December 4, 2016 4:30 pm
Reply to  Beepger

Great Post-Thank you. The trend is your friend.

jperkins12
Member
jperkins12
December 5, 2016 2:32 am
Reply to  Beepger

Beepger:
Thanks for the info. Very helpful, and I agree with you 100%. I’m waiting to take the plunge at this point, but I do feel the market is completely overvalued.

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Doug
Guest
Doug
November 27, 2016 9:33 pm
Reply to  Neil

I have purchased his recommendations since I joined in early November. They are all long dated out of the money puts. The first ones are expiring on Jan. 20. They are all down based on the Nov. stock market rally. If there isn’t a significant correction in the market soon I fear I will lose, a yet to be determined, amount of money.

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jperkins12
Member
jperkins12
December 5, 2016 2:29 am
Reply to  Neil

Likewise, Neil !!!!!!

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wsattler
wsattler
September 28, 2016 5:47 pm
Reply to  kgarvey

Today, September. 28, Moneypress has a new teaser. It says Lewitt has 35 stocks in his “Going bankrupt within one year” list. The list has mostly oil and pharma stocks with documented burn rates.
Moors advertised a similar scheme for failing oil stocks. In 45 days he recommended two $2 oil stocks with the $2 put, six months selling for 0.95. Now, three months later , the puts are down–not up. His triple digit gains did not materialize.

For the people above, waiting for a down turn, wait until after the first 4% decline and then load up on puts. It will be like shooting fish in a barrell
Wolfgang

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rmiken49
Member
rmiken49
September 28, 2016 7:45 pm
Reply to  wsattler

Certainly agree. I did sign up for the Zenith Trading Circle but am cautious before acting on any recommendations. Investors have a tendency to boost stock prices in a rising market although a company may be on the verge of failing. Companies such as TESLA seem to portray this ability. Once the markets start to plunge investors will lose faith quickly. I believe Lewitt’s recommendations will do well when this time arrives. According to my Elliott Wave service, there may be one final hurrah up before the markets actually turn down for a longer term. It is a wait and see game now as investors decide which wagon they want to get on. Much patience is needed at this stage in the markets for the bulls and the bears.

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archives2001
archives2001
September 29, 2016 5:49 pm
Reply to  kgarvey

THANX!

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jperkins12
Member
jperkins12
December 5, 2016 2:28 am
Reply to  kgarvey

kgarvey: We will all have to wait a long time.

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jperkins12
Member
jperkins12
December 5, 2016 2:25 am
Reply to  rmiken49

Good luck with that timing !!

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silver1939
November 14, 2016 2:48 pm
Reply to  kgarvey

Yeah. Stock options

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silver1939
November 14, 2016 2:49 pm
Reply to  kgarvey

That should have read: Stock options repeated.

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buggsy
Member
buggsy
September 23, 2016 9:36 pm

As always a seductive pitch with tons of graphs and mega return promises. But how has it performed?
I found the below posted Aug 26th so I do not see any 94% accuracy or impressive results. 12 Short Positions 8 losing giving a 33% accuracy to date, trades are not closed however.

http://zenithtradingcircle.com/2016/08/26/q3-update-youre-up-125-on-this-long-play/

And here are our shorts. AMZN and FB still stubbornly refuse to drop, but I hold fast to my conviction that they are overvalued and eventually, their sins will find them out. However, the crumbling DB and the faddish FIT are already receiving their just deserts.

Going Down (Short) Symbol Price 12/29/2015 Price 8/25/2016
Alphabet Inc. GOOG $776.60 $768.25 – Down 1.1%
Amazon.com Inc. AMZN $693.97 $756.50 – Up 9%
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. CMG $489.94 $406.62- Down 17%
Deutsche Bank DB $24.87 $14.16 – Down 43.1%
Facebook Inc. FB $107.26 $123.59 – Up 15.2%
Fitbit Inc. FIT $29.35 $14.88 – Down 49.3%
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB $343.00 $287.45 – Down 16.2%
Netflix Inc. NFLX $119.12 $97.32 – Down 18.3%
SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY $207.40 $217.44 – Up 4.8%
Standard Chartered plc STAN.L 581p 616.70p – Up 6.1%
Starbucks Corp. SBUX $61.13 $57.24 – Down 6.4%
Tesla Motors Inc. TSLA $237.19 $222.56 – Down 6.2%

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Ralph
Member
Ralph
September 23, 2016 10:03 pm

I have been trying to short some on my own and this could be useful for me if the weekly letter stays accurate. Sorting through all the stocks and trying to find them myself is very time consuming so will give it a try with credit card refund as my backup. I tried VantagePoint and learned a lot but requested a refund that was pro rated with MCs help so its a tool tax deduction as well on itemized deductions as subscription. If you buy a cheap put and a company goes bankrupt or delisted the COBE will pay you the strike price so its pretty safe only loose the cost of the puts. I entered this company in the BBB just in case. I also tried Max ROI and it sort of worked but was time consuming so got a full refund so if you are in the return window and keep records of the warranty refund MC will help get your refund if it comes to that.

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Ralph
Member
Ralph
September 28, 2016 4:57 pm
Reply to  Ralph

so far so good, Mikes alerts are consistent with my readings in the WSJ and takes the guess out of the shorts. WIll let you know how they work once Mike tells me to close them.

Frank
Guest
September 24, 2016 12:04 pm

Lets see, he wants 500 members times $2000, not a bad pay day for a long winded video of stocks that went down without any proof he had made the calls prior. If he was that good, he would have a trial period before taking that kind of money in advance.

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jperkins12
Member
jperkins12
December 5, 2016 2:44 am
Reply to  Frank

If he’s that good, why waste time on us?

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Phil Carter
Guest
September 25, 2016 12:50 am

I have seen so many red flags when listening to this guy. First he claims to have mad so much money yet in his video he wears a cheap ass suit. newt he is full of double talk and never really shows how his system works, To me its all Bull Shit!

Bob
Member
Bob
September 25, 2016 12:07 pm

Several of the stocks Lewitt has identified recently as tankers are in fact tankers. This video is somewhat dated in terms of the examples he is using but if you go to his Zenith Trading Circle website and read the article about four stocks the Fed has given a reprieve to, it makes a lot of sense.

I’m not here to defend Lewitt or his $2,000 subscription service but if you look at Sear’s Holdings (SHLD, Tesla Motors (TSLA) and Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) they are all financial train wrecks.

Of course the entire brick and mortar retail sector is crying out to be shorted given that amazon.com is taking over the world of retail so the decline of the once mighty Sears is no surprise.

Whether Tesla Motors is a giant Ponzi scheme as Lewitt states, remains to be seen but one thing is for sure; the high-flying Tesla Motors is hemorrhaging red ink and has been for as long as the company has been around. The cars themselves cost a fortune and are not a realistic alternative to a carbon-spewing, gas-guzzling SUV, at least not for the majority of the world’s driving population. In this regard Lewitt is correct when he states that Tesla vehicles are basically toys for rich people that are being subsidized by U.S. taxpayers.

Lewitt’s so-called “carbon play” can be nothing other than shorting strategy using Put options, if in fact he is so adamant about not shorting the actual stock. Buying Puts that are at the money or slightly out of the money can be a viable alternative to shorting equities but you need to understand implied volatility, open interest, time value v. intrinsic value and how each impacts the price of options (premiums) before you can know whether a particular option series is a good investment at a given price.

Not all options increase in price as the series comes into the money and even when they do the increase in price may or may not be enough to offset the premium you pay to purchase the option. The closer you are to the expiration date of the option the more this becomes true.

When you are talking about buying Puts on a $200 stock (TSLA), even out of the money Puts, the cost is not going to be a trifle amount. At the moment a January 2018 Put option on TSLA with a strike price of $200 will cost you $42 including commission, which means you have 15 months for the stock price to drop far enough so that you can make money when you sell the option contract. One contract (100 shares) will cost you $4,200. If the stock prices drops to $160 you might double your money, but only if it happens soon enough for their to be significant intrinsic value left in the option.

A Put with a $180 strike price and the same Jan 2018 expiration date is going to cost you $32 a share and the option won’t even start to increase in value until the stock drops below $180 a share. The point is that options trading is not for the faint of heart.

If you want to use a Put option strategy to short an equity I suggest that you go that he Options Industry Council website and educate yourself before purchase a single contract.

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KEN SUCHE
Guest
September 26, 2016 7:41 pm

LOOKS FAR TOO RISKY AFTER READING THE REVIEWS!!!

rmiken49
Member
rmiken49
September 26, 2016 11:23 pm
Reply to  KEN SUCHE

Any type of investment in today’s environment is risky. Lewitt’s approach is feasible but only after the market trends change from up to down on a longer term basis. Markets can stay elevated as long as investor moods are trending up. When markets fall, bad companies will stand out and have a harder time recovering on any market recovery bounces. I would think that Lewitt’s service would help to pinpoint some of the bad actors during this process and provide entry and exit points. The markets are very top heavy and due for a large correction in the near future. Easy to pinpoint companies that have been overbought and easy to profit when markets start trending down. Priceline (PCLN) is a good example of a company whose stock price was near 1000 in May, 1999 and down to around 2.50 in November 2000 after the dot.com bust. Now PCLN back to an overpriced 1450(yahoo finance) Similar opportunities to profit will come when the trend finally changes directions. It is not difficult to select overpriced companies on your own that have been overbought by jubilant investors. Haven’t made a decision to subscribe to Zenith Trading Circle yet.

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jperkins12
Member
jperkins12
December 5, 2016 2:52 am
Reply to  rmiken49

Everyone tells me you cannot “time the market”, but everyone tries to do just that. Some every second, some every minute, some every day, monthly or yearly, but they all do. It takes W. Buffett years.

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rmiken49
Member
rmiken49
December 5, 2016 10:29 pm
Reply to  jperkins12

I use the Pro Service with Elliot Wave International (as noted in other posts). The cost is $200/month. When the market is open it provides charts and comments on the three major indices, Dow, S&P, and the Nasdaq100 every hour when the markets are open. For almost eight years this service has helped me to recognize good entry points for calls or puts or to stay on the sidelines. With Zenith Circle for the most part it has seemed more prudent to watch and not act (to my benefit). As a result I have kept my trades small and limited to only a few trades. Elliott Wave is spot on for market timing and helped me to save money and make money over the years. I have been a member of many options services during this time. Zenith was another attempt to find trade recommendations that coincided with an eventual down market direction; way down. That has happened just yet so many of the Zenith trades haven’t worked well with the current market. According to Elliott there is still some up and down direction remaining before the market corrects strongly to the downside. We are past due.

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Stanley
Member
Stanley
January 2, 2017 12:54 pm
Reply to  jperkins12

jperkins is absolutely right that everyone tries to do just that — “that” being “time the market”.

skip
Guest
skip
September 27, 2016 3:33 pm

Yes he must be buying puts or calls or something.Remember, you can buy so many puts or calls say for 2500 out 90 days or less, but if your target
price is “out the money” , ie, the stock doesn’t go down
in that time frame, then you lose the entire 2500. I’ll wait to the market crashes and then buy the Vanguard Stock Market Index, good companies like Pepsi, Coke,and Proctor and Gamble.

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Gerry
Guest
Gerry
September 27, 2016 6:57 pm

I think it is a brilliant concept as right now it is much easier to pick out the companies that are about to fail then it is to pick out the ones that are going to rapidly rise.
My concern is the same as everyone’s else is what is a carbon trade and how a person can do this without owning stocks. I also agree that all of the companies that have been stated in the video that have fallen in the past tense which are easy to point out. Is there anyone out there that has had any recent success with recent advice from Lewitt would be encouraging for a person to move forward or is this Zenith program brand new with no history?

jperkins12
Member
jperkins12
December 5, 2016 2:55 am
Reply to  Gerry

Gerry, it’s new enough to me, and you are correct that all his picks seem to be “after the fact”. The carbon trades seem to be consecutive trades on the same stock that he picks, and is sliding. Just my interpretation or guess.

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Bos
Guest
Bos
September 29, 2016 11:23 am

Yeah. It is a lot of money and the long video really puts me off. Also I clicked the join part of the website last night and did not join. Then i clicked it today and they said it is no longer taking members and to enter my info to get on a waiting list. Then i checked from a different IP and i could still join if I wanted. So they try to trick you into signing up with the waiting list thing. In the august update I don’t see any home runs on his shorts with puts. . His video shows 1000% gainers . That is what you need to make the type of money he claims with putting a couple 1000 into a put. I guess the longer dated ones could still pay off and one home run could make it worth it. I like the idea but am skeptical

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rmiken49
Member
rmiken49
September 29, 2016 11:28 pm
Reply to  Bos

I think many of the investing subscriber services are overpriced as I have had memberships in many over the last 10 years but for the most part they have saved me time and money. Profits exceeded the membership costs in most instances. An observation with Zenith is there have been 4 alerts since the startup on September 20th. They are all out of the money long dated puts. They are cheap puts (around 0.20 eachX100 =$20 per contract)(average cost for current recommendations) Lot of contracts can be purchased at this price if desired I have not purchased any just yet as I think the markets are headed for a bit more correction down and then rally toward a new market high before a larger correction down. I will look to buy into some of the current alerts/new alerts after the markets top and head back down. At present the Zenith puts are approximately -45%, 80%, 50% and 125%. So, good returns thus far and rationale to wait for the markets to turn up and wait for a better entry points. Also noted is that these longer dated out of the money puts tend to be less affected by market volatility. Speculators can still purchase shorter dated puts for Zenith recommendations during periods of market volatility. I use technical services including my own technical indicators to help determine various entry points and exit points until I can verify Lewitt’s ability to do the same.

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buggsy
Member
buggsy
September 29, 2016 11:48 pm
Reply to  rmiken49

Thank you for your feedback it is much appreciated. Please keep us posted as time progress.

Timothy Carr
September 30, 2016 12:54 pm

I’d like to ask the members this? Has anybody actually Joined The Zenith Trading Circle ? Also has anybody actually made a trade that Michael has recommended in his Newsletter? Well, I have. I made a trade that Michael has recommended. I bought his Deutsche Bank January 2017 10 puts. I’m up about 60%.The reason this strategy works is a statistic that well known by Entrepreneurs.”About half of all new establishments survive five years or more and about one-third survive 10 years or more. As one would expect, the probability of survival increases with a firm’s age. Survival rates have changed little over time.”
– Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, BED
Because of this Failure rate, Michael Hewitt’s strategy works like a charm.
All I can say is I’m in the Money.

Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
September 30, 2016 2:04 pm
Reply to  Timothy Carr

I’m glad you’ve been successful. I don’t get the logic, though — a short (or put buy) on Deutsche Bank is a bet that their derivatives book is going to unravel and that investors in the bank won’t be rescued… a popular bet recently, but it’s got nothing to do with the failure of an entrepreneurial enterprise (DB is about 150 years old).

There is a high failure rate for new companies, though an extremely low bankruptcy “total failure” rate for listed and optionable companies — so what you’re betting on by speculating on out-of-the-money puts over a short period of time (six months or less) is that you can predict a sharp fall in a company’s shares within a several month period.

That will work sometimes, particularly if the broad market happens to go in your direction… but even short sellers who are professionals at this and have done it for decades have a hard time getting the timing right and often do poorly for extended periods of time. Getting the timing wrong is not a luxury that options speculators have.

If you’re going to buy puts on a company to bet that it will decline, I’d urge you to be familiar with and clear about the negative catalysts that you expect — something beyond “it’s too richly valued and it will fall when the market falls.” Richly valued stocks don’t fall on an easily predictable schedule just because they’re too expensive, so you need at least a reason to believe that they will have a bad earnings report for some specific reason… and the market direction in any six month period is essentially unknowable (the tendency is for the market to rise over time, so you start out with a little bit of a headwind — arguably not a terrible one when the market is relatively richly valued like it is today, but still your task is harder than a long-only investor’s).

That’s not intended to malign Michael Lewitt, whose work I don’t know — just to remind folks that his task is extraordinarily difficult, and lots of professional investors fail at it a lot of the time.

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jperkins12
Member
jperkins12
December 5, 2016 3:04 am

Travis; very well said.

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Bobby
Guest
Bobby
November 20, 2016 3:48 am
Reply to  Timothy Carr

I think you are talking about a different service. The ZTC trade in DB didn’t happen until 10/31/16. By his own update of 11/17/16, even at his miracle purchase price, he is down 27.5%.

Beepger
Guest
November 26, 2016 10:09 pm
Reply to  Bobby

I think the 10/31 DB trade was not the first. Ergo the “carbon trade” new puts on the same stock are added during the long fall from overvalued to no longer loved. It has been my observation that some of the recent trades are a long way from peak values and possibly a little late for the truly good money making action. Like to see at least a couple triple or better baggers here.

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jperkins12
Member
jperkins12
December 5, 2016 3:01 am
Reply to  Timothy Carr

You are in the money on “ONE TRADE”.

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Franklyn
Franklyn
September 30, 2016 1:40 pm

This appears to be a risky way to short stocks, in my view. the price of the letter is a turn off for me. I am doing fair on my own for shorting stocks. If I make a profit in todays market I am happy. Don’t believe in all the get rich letters. I have lost money in get rich letters 95 percent of the time. At the end of each year I usually make a profit. Travis would make A GOOD FINANCIAL PLANNER.

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kgarvey
September 30, 2016 5:51 pm

I’ve taken advantage of the Zenith offer (Michael Lewitt) due to the 90 cancellation terms. Mike communicates regularly, almost daily, which is good. Today I got the first red flag. On 9/26 he proposed a put trade. I looked at it, and admittedly was confused. His instruction was to buy the Put for $.35 or better. Yet, it was trading in the teens. That was a disconnect. Today he put out a post indicating that this same trade, as of 9/29, was up over 58%. What? The contract closed on 9/29 at $.19. This means he would have had to be in the contract on 9/26 at $.12 or better. So, why then did he recommend that we enter the trade at $.35 or better? Also, the underlying is up over 12% since 9/26. Another disconnect, if we’re to believe his 58% profit-to-date statement.
So, I’m wary. Can’t ever speak directly to these gurus so I don’t ever expect to hear an explanation from him.
Onward and upward. We’ll see what happens from here.

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brian
Guest
October 2, 2016 2:17 am
Reply to  kgarvey

0.35 or better means buy the option for that price or less! ie .12 as of the 29 at .19 is a good start but its still a buy up to 0.35.

jperkins12
Member
jperkins12
December 5, 2016 3:09 am
Reply to  brian

Still, if it was at .19 it seems to be puzzling that he would recommend it at .35 or better. How did he come up with that figure?

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james
Guest
November 7, 2016 12:22 pm
Reply to  kgarvey

kg you are so right.You can now see he IS claiming his entry is 0.12, which seems to me to impossible.This p of s as he calls them is in fact going great guns , profits and cash flow positive..
an alternative view is that Lewitt gone in a really big hole through misjudgements and was looking for patsies to get him out. Gee thanks, you lying bastard

jperkins12
Member
jperkins12
December 5, 2016 3:07 am
Reply to  kgarvey

Thanks for that, kgarvey. Keep us posted if you have time.

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lew
Irregular
lew
October 3, 2016 12:01 am

Subscribed recently and tried unsuccessfully to duplicate the ribbon (selected moving averages) for his put recommendations

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