Author/Editor
Shah Gilani
Publisher
Money Map Press
Description
Trading service that recommends out-of-the-money put options to profit from companies with weak financials, with “carbon trades” that are essentially rolling those same put option trades forward when they expire and hoping to profit several times from a stock in persistent decline. Launched by Michael Lewitt in September 2016, he was replaced by Shah Gilani in April 2017.
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Hey don’t you guys realize if you close the window when you see a long winded video appear, you get a written version if you click stay. Then you can scan thru quickly before coming over to see what gumshoe says about it.
Yes, we understand that NeilH, but I think they have circumvented that little trick. It would not work for me.
Don’t know if you guys are all in the USA or other countries but today is October 13 and I just received email and watched a painfully long video looking for sloppy script writing but couldn’t find it. I did find Michael very blunt and straight shooting which I like.
I would like to think that by now some of you may have turned a profit or at least seen your positions heading in the right direction.
Can I trouble some of you for an update before this little aussie jumps in (even after having several bad experiences with U.S. companies not wanting to process subscriptions or refunds with Australians).
Blessings to all.
Steve.
This is Mike(USA). I joined Zenith recently. So far, no disappointments. Some of my earlier posts briefly describe my rationale and approach to buying puts and market direction. Lewitt’s recommendations will be most beneficial once the US markets change direction from up to down. Today’s down day was anticipated and once the bottom for this “wave” is in place, the market should continue its upward trend for a bit longer until it reaches a final top before starting back down in earnest (potentially before the end of 2016). The Zenith recommendations will likely trade flat to up during market uptrends. The companies are poor performers and some of them will not do well even during an uptrend market. (There are much better stock buys for investors during market uptrends). Companies recommended by Lewitt will suffer tremendously when markets move down for the longer term and investor moods turn down. The Zenith recommendations are long term and out-of-the-money puts, so require time to become most profitable. I have made money by shorter term puts on some of Michael Lewitt’s recommendations from his Sure Money newsletter(which is free). At present, I am pleased with Zenith Trading Circle and the put recommendations. At some point in the near future, we will be entering a major Bear market. Recommendations from Lewitt will be some of the first to suffer. However, there will be plenty of additional opportunities to buy puts on many current high flying companies and their overbought stocks. (see above mention of Priceline (PCLN) that went from over 1100 to slightly over 7 in two years (dotcom bust in 2000) PCLN is back to over 1400.
STEVE; Don’t do it !!!!!!
I reluctantly paid the 2k for the service but have been very happy so far. Ive done 5 trades with him so far with no losers . Only time will tell how his picks do in the longer term. I trade them short term and will likely not hold until experiation.
Dave, Thank you for your feedback
I joined the Zenith Trading Circle one month ago for their 2k price and I do not see any gains worth mentioning – overall the portfolio is slightly in the black, which is nicer than some others where it loses much value quickly and then stays there.
However, the teasers, and reviews, indicate that profits would be made much quicker than they have. His routine emails also went from the hype of ‘making 10X profits quickly’ to one of ‘market stagnation’ and now ‘timelines look to be out to late 2016/early 2017’ for anything to ‘happen’. So one has to hold onto these recommended puts for many months now, and perhaps close and roll them out further to see any profits.
I did not have any problems getting ‘filled’ at or near the prices he recommended, and the results he is reporting weekly are close to what I am seeing. Some up, some down, some just hanging around. If there was/is a big market correction, I suspect all of them would do well.
I suspect I’ll be canceling my membership with Zenith later in November (2 months in). It is following a very predictable path that MoneyMap and other newsletters tend to follow – the teasers do not live up to reality.
I sent them a note telling them this earlier today.
I joined Zenith about a month ago and have been watching the account carefully. I have decided to only paper trade at this time out of extreme caution. I did receive his updates which were very different than mine so I decided to do a Thinkback evaluation of the trades when his recommendations went out. Some of them seemed a little off, but most were in sync with Thinkback. I found some of the prices to be signficantly lower than what I was able to achieve, but I admittedly did not execute them on point. A lot of my trades were in major negative territory for the last few weeks.
My gut feeling is that he is the real deal and these trades will work out, but his numbers will fluctuate and vary from everyone else’s because timing is key. If anyone can deliver alpha in these times, I won’t be bitching over a 20% difference!
I’m very interested to see someone’s results. I’m on the fence with this
I have been a member for a few weeks. The companies selected by Michael Lewitt are appropriate for companies that will fail once the markets change from bull mode to bear mode. Once that happens, there will no shortage of companies with elevated stock prices with plenty of room to correct down. His selections are leap options so plenty of time for them to play out. I am tracking his selections but waiting until the markets decide which direction to travel before jumping in fully. Markets in a sideways range for awhile now. I have shorted(put options) some of his recommendations but on a shorter term (few weeks out) working with short term technical aspects. Good returns. His recommendations have performed reasonably well during the last several weeks as the markets have corrected down. However, I anticipate that we will rally again before the next big correction gets here. During rallies, even bad companies have buyers. However, once we eventually move into bear market territory there is no doubt his recommendations will perform well.
Several people have mention leap options. Is this a different service? Zenith is fairly short term. The furthest out has been an April put.
I’m with you, Robert 145. It will be a long wait for the results.
Michael Lewitt’s Zenith Trading promotion seems to have disappeared, allusion to content perhaps being too rough for his sponsors(?). Anybody know what may have happened here, and what the end result may be?
I think if you reply to the last offer it will be valid. The discontinuation was just announced to rush people to buy now. It will resurface in a few days. Anybody made the 500% profits buying puts with his recommendations?.
Large percentage returns would only take place over a period of months or a year or longer (using the “carbon trade” technique). This all depends on when longer down cycles in the markets occur. I do not anticipate that happening in the very near term until such time that US markets finish topping. High percentage returns are more likely on a longer downturn(such as a new bear market). These long term trades will not do as well until that time comes. Most of the poor performing companies from Michael Lewitt generally go down on down market days and do not perform as well on up market days. I have profited with shorter term trades buying puts. I recently bought at the money November puts on VRX(late September and early October) and made over 100% on each in less than a month. Paying attention to short term technical situations can provide opportunities to profit during brief downturns while waiting for the longer term plays to profit.
Check the record now. 4 of 1st 6 trades are down. 1 is flat. 1 is up 20%. And that is if you bought at his alleged “recorded price.” Almost no one can get in at this price. The last one was SHLD Jan 2017 $5 puts. He claims it could have been bought @ $0.20. Out of the 29,022 contracts that traded that day 100 traded at $.020. Those 100 contracts were traded @ $0.20 at 1:14 pm ET. That’s the same time I received my txt alert. You then have to check your email for the trade info and get your trade entered. No human can do that in under 1 minute. You are given a limit price but if you buy anywhere near that price you will loose money. I have made 8 trades and I am down in all but one. I have lost 50% overall on the 8 trades.
This is nearly an exact copy of my experience. Before the election there was a bit of green and things were going in a profitable direction. With the market rally puts are at significant losses…
Thanks for the info, Bobby. It just takes a little time for the truth to start creeping out.
You can buy at the money leap puts and sell shorter puts to lower the cost. of the purchased put. If someone is on this service contact me, give me the trade and I’ll show you how to set it up.
How do we contact you Bruce?
Yes, I’d like to know how to set it up as well. Today I bot a Jan 2018 Put on Tesla with a $100 strike. where would you go from there?
Bruce: Last zenith trade was on 11/14/16 for SHLD 1/20/17 $5 put. Limit price =.35. How would you set it up?
down 28% so far.
Just an update to let folks know how these trades are going. In a nutshell, not so good. I have lost significant capital thus far as the Trump rally continues to unnerve any short positions. Does anyone in the service have any positive news? I for one am losing faith quickly.
Sorry your returns aren’t doing well. I have doing mostly paper trades for my shorts due to current market considerations. The only trades thus far are TSLA,MTDR DB, C and VRX. The TSLA (+15%), MTDR (-61%), DB(Jan 2018 10(-29%)C (-45%) Closed out an earlier VRX trade with profits (two different Nov options(over 100%)not the Lewitt reco). At present the markets in general are in a topping process which can take considerable time and very frustrating thus requiring a lot of patience. We are in typically a positive time for the markets (November – April) so may take some time. This apparently is not the best time for a large number of shorts unless they are extended “leaps” such as the DB in Jan2018 or the C(Jan 2018). All the recommendations for Zenith seem to be solid relative to the noted poor company statistics. Until such time that investors fully lose their enthusiasm, they will continue to buy stocks and keep aspects of the market propped up. Doesn’t matter how bad a company is. Has to get better, right. The smaller stocks recently have been performing better (Russell indexes). This happens when investors are looking for beaten down stocks to buy and moving away from some of the larger names. During a market topping process investors go back and forth trying to find safe haven investments. Noted in earlier comments, I use Elliott Wave International to help me make decisions on best times to make my option trades. As an example, I plugged in a CMG January 450 call. My Elliott Wave technical indicated that CMG was headed higher. Made 248%(paper trade). Haven’t purchased the CMG puts yet. However, I made over 500% during the time CMG dropped from over 700 to 450 end of 2015. The stock has much further to fall. Another company that will not hold up during a down market.
For those having problems buying Zenith Trading Circle recommendations at or near the price reflected it would seem that the price of the option is reflected during the specific time the recommendation is made. Afterwards the price is likely to jump depending on the volume of traffic buying that particular option. This will happen every time there are thousands of options being purchased at once over a relative short period of time. This increases the “implied volatility” of the option and the price increases. Option prices can vary depending on various volatility measurements. One is historic volatility (depends on overall interest). The VIX and VXN also dictates overall daily option value/costs depending on current markets whether up or down. This is true for any service that make recommendations for options. If there is a large membership interested in the recommendation, then one can expect the price to increase. Depending on the market direction that day, the price can go even higher(or lower) depending on the option type and interest.
It’s sounding like his recommendations are based upon fundamentals only. The problem with that is timing. Reminds me of one of Warren Buffets quotes, “markets can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent”. I see a structural problem here… he’s recommending a time-based investment (put options) but is highly inaccurate with regard to downside triggers. Then his marketing material shows cherry picking of selections that produced huge returns.
That’s ok with him, TimR. If he cuts off all his subscribers to 500, he will make close to $1 Million. It’s really puzzling why he would not let me subscribe. Guess he just wants no more than the $1 Mil. Ha!
Oh, if we only knew where that crystal ball was that I lost.
Check the record now. 4 of 1st 6 trades are down. 1 is flat. 1 is up 20%. And that is if you bought at his alleged “recorded price.” Almost no one can get in at this price. The last one was SHLD Jan 2017 $5 puts. He claims it could have been bought @ $0.20. Out of the 29,022 contracts that traded that day 100 traded at $.020. Those 100 contracts were traded @ $0.20 at 1:14 pm ET. That’s the same time I received my txt alert. You then have to check your email for the trade info and get your trade entered. No human can do that in under 1 minute. You are given a limit price but if you buy anywhere near that price you will loose money. I have made 8 trades and I am down in all but one. I have lost 50% overall on the 8 trades.
Most recent reco is GPRO. The Jan $6 opt @ 0.20 or less. Before the deep pockets jumped in, the option was approx. 0.07 with 1758 open interest. Afterwards jumped to 0.23 after the volume increased to 47,783 current volume count. A slight drop in the stock price may have attributed to a small portion of the price increase. It also increased the implied volatility and increased option prices for surrounding price entries. There are possibly other factors in play here but difficult to buy the ZTC reco at a the suggested limit price. This situation is not unusual on any option type when a large interest is involved whether from a membership, hedge fund, etc. If the final weekly ZTC entry price is around 0.07 then they are using the current price before the large volume of buyers come in. Will consider looking at a different stock option price, another month or wait for implied volatility and price to calm down a bit. The ZTC price entries are difficult to compete with when they claim their profit percentage based on their entry before the large volume interest increased the price. basically one could ignore the ZTC entry prices. There will be plenty of room to make profits irrespective of the entry price when the markets decide to take the next larger dip down including GPRO. I have been in other services that recognizes the price push when large volumes increase with large buying interest. They would often recommend waiting before buying in. However, one has to deal with waiting or missing out if the current stock price keeps moving down or perhaps in conjunction with markets moving down (for put options)
Most recent major turnoff for me was no mention of SCTY as they merged with TSLA. Nothing! Nada. Now, anyone in the service is holding worthless $5 Puts on TSLA. I’m done. Worst. Investment.Service. Ever.
Good luck friends, I’m out.
I signed up in September. A big mistake. If you are a member and are within the 90 day refund, take your money and run. I have traded in 8 of his recommendations. one trade had a small profit of $333,00 the other seven, I am down $4700.00. I got out on Friday past, If I had not I would have been down another $1200.00. What a record. He writes good script though. Fooled me.
Couldn’t agree more. Run for the Hills!!!!
Thank you!… I was seriously considering this service as it makes a lot of sense. I expect that eventually, the companies he identifies will go down in value, but with put options they need to go down soon, otherwise you lose big.
I signed up in September. A big mistake. If you are a member and are within the 90 day refund, take your money and run. I have traded in 8 of his recommendations, I am down $5100.00. I’ve sent several emails, via “Ask Michael Lewitt a question” ? NEVER got a reply !
I agree, he’s good at the BS, just another huckster, fishing the internet.
If you are a member and are within the 90 day refund, take your money and run. I have traded in 8 of his recommendations. not one trade has made small profit, I am down $5100.00. Just another huckster fishing the internet! I’ve got spit out the hook, too costly to keep going.
That is why before joining any of these services good knowledge with technical basics on the markets is necessary. The markets are currently in a topping process. Until that is complete, it is unlikely that most of the put options will do well until this process is complete. Could take a few weeks more or could last until the first of the year. I have paper traded most of the ZEN trades but have placed similar trades with only small positions later into 2017 and some Jan 2018. I am holding off on most of the ZEN recommendations until I am certain that the markets begin to head into bear market territory. Even the bad companies will maintain some positive interest until the next bear market. My only reservation is that some of the companies being recommended I already had on my radar and had previously made profits on put options (CMG and TESLA). Will have to reconcile in the next few weeks whether it will be prudent to continue with the service. Once the markets turn down and likely the beginning of a major bear market, there will be plenty of over bought companies that will lose stock value with opportunity for large profits.
Sure, his options will do well, IF the market tanks. If that happens you will not need Lewitt’s recommendations. He should have warned his clients of that. As an “expert” he should have anticipated the moves. So you are waiting for the market to top. Can you guarantee that the market is going to top within a few weeks? It will at some point. But, so called experts have been calling that since 2009.
No one can predict specifically when the market will top. Actually, in the last “Great Recession” the market bottomed in March, 2009 and has been in rally mode ever since. The markets should have “topped” in 2011, 2012 but due to Federal Reserve intervention the time has extended leading to exuberant investor moods It may take a few weeks or even a few months to “top out” as this is a slow, messy process. Money can be made during up and down wave variables irrespective of how the markets perform. That is when market volatility provides more profit opportunities. When the markets are in a sideways motion, it is difficult to profit unless a trader is very nimble and sitting in front of their trading desk all day. At present there are many issues that will eventually lead to a market downturn. Just like a roller coaster, what goes up must come down.
I have been in numerous option type services and they are obligated to issue trade ideas irrespective of what the markets are doing. They may issue calls or puts and many are helpful in an attempt to “take profits” before the market changes directions. Lewitt’s service obviously is hedging toward an eventual market downturn. His recommendations are accurate but not always prudent particularly if the market is trending up or in a sideways movement. Best at that point to take a patient stance and wait. As noted in my earlier comments, I use a technical trading service to help me negotiate market short term variables (hourly when markets are open) or daily, weekly and monthly for a more holistic viewpoint. I rarely lose money with any of my option services but I am very selective on my trades. What I like about them is they help find sectors of stocks, individual stocks, commodity trades, etc. that provide the background necessary to make a proper trade, perhaps not now but when market timing is right. Putting all of these services together provides to me a marketing pattern I can rely on for reasonable profitability. I noted earlier that I paper trade most of ZEN recommendations and with some trades have opted to make shorter term and closer to “in the money” put options when feasible. Made anywhere from 50% to over 100% on some of these trades. My point is I like the ZEN recommendations but do not participate until the markets are moving down. What a trader can lose out on is if the markets do get into “crash” mode you can miss out. I have participated in some of the ZEN recommendations but with only small positions and with enough cash reserves to add to these positions as the market may dictate.
Thanks for the poignant information. I should have used more caution with this service as it hit me pretty good. I feel the way you do about the market environment right now, but I can’t sit around and wait anymore. It was an unfortunate ride to say the least!
Thanks for the info. If possible would you mind posting his trade symbols? I’ve seen his free newsletter positions and have made a few winning trades.
Buying out of the money (OTM) puts as an alternative strategy to shorting the actual stock is a dicey game at best. If you aren’t an experienced options trader it probably sounds….well, too good to be true.
OTM options are more difficult to price correctly for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that implied volatility is far less meaningful than it is with an option that is at the money (ATM).
The second is that the spread on OTM options can be huge. Actually the spread on any option series can be huge but it is particularly true with OTM options. This means that you may enter a position and be 30%, 50% or more on a trade the minute your order is filled.
The SHLD January 2017 $5 Puts that Lewitt has been recommending are currently trading at Bid .38/Ask .50 or a spread of 12 cents a share. This is actually a close spread for an option that is this far OTM mainly because the open interest is huge. This means that the number of contracts that have been sold on this particular series of Put options is far more (as in 10 times or more) than any of the options from the same series that carry a strike price slightly above or below $5.
The $6 SHLD Jan 2017 Put option is trading B.35/A.65 for example. In other words, you are paying almost TWICE as much to purchase the option as you can sell it for at the time you purchase it. So, in this instance what would happen in your trading account is that you would spend $650 to buy 10 contracts of the SHLD Jan17 $6 Put and the “value” represented by your purchase,a s reflected in you trading account would be $350!
To “put” it in layman’s terms (no pun intended) your “investment in this $6 Put will need to increase in value by 100% just to break even after taking into account trading costs, which by the way are typically higher than the cost of buying and selling stocks at most discount brokerage houses.
I am not saying that there isn’t a good case to be made for using Put options as a sort strategy and I’m certainly not saying that Michael Lewitt’s analysis is wrong, as I have followed his work for some time and he is typically spot on when it comes to analyzing downside risk. What I am saying is that you need to understand how options work before jumping into the trading arena because they function very differently from common stocks in terms of both price movement and trade execution.
I was pretty tempted by the Zenith Circle based on the sound filtration mechanics via Lewitt’s 4-layers (negative Z-score, Current Ratio 4, and flat-lining or declining Net Income), which I’ve studied in college and beyond. Also, I’ve always found it odd about all the strategies around finding winners in an ocean of losers (most stocks LOSE). However, the steep price tag seemed suspicious to me given the shallow track record and the overall reliance on the timing of the overall Bear Market, which is constantly being manipulated into a “Bull Market” via the numerous tinkering / spoiling factors via international elites and monetary policies – let alone the noise of politics and irrational emotions that DO drive markets in the medium to short term. The 90-day return policy doesn’t factor in the money lost investing in a strategy – only the membership price…haha… In the end, I like the arithmetic behind the stock selection process (the companies to invest via puts); however, why sell this content to other investors? Why not continue to invest in winners and keep this proprietary knowledge to the brain trust? Simple: $2,250 x 500 (the membership / circle’s “capacity”) = $1,125,000. There’s a guaranteed winner right there for Lewitt, which is highly suspicious, but we can’t really blame him for monetizing a strategy that may work via a content strategy. I’m in the business of content strategy myself. In the end, it’s a big rolling of the dice on a strategy that’s predicated on a world few know much about via put options, which have a very crazy pricing structure that’s easy to screw up – especially with respect to the timing of the purchase. Jim Rickards has a similar strategy via his Intelligence Triggers based on a method he calls the Kissinger Cross, which comes down to put options as well. The membership price on that was high as well – maybe higher, and both are marketed through Agora Financial.
Thank you guys so much for the info, and thanks to StockGumshoe. I would have bought this service if not for finding this forum.
Thank you to everyone for sharing and to StockGumshoe for this forum. If I hadn’t checked it, I would have bought into this service.
Thanks to StockGumshoe group. An interesting and informative group. It really helps to hear what others have to say about the investment topic or membership pitch from the marketing companies and individuals. when you read some of the postings, it helps you think outside what the marketing materials try to say/share.
Saw this email with a long video. I was actively trading earlier part of the year and had decided to take a break since end of April until election hype is done. I have been surprise by the lowering of volatility as the year ends. Im currently waiting with patience for the next wave of news that will cause the vxx to spike. That’s when I think most of MLs reccos will pay off.
I can’t believe it. I subscribed to Lewitt”s rip-off crap for two months and lost 85% of my investments. Today I get an email from the other Shyster- Shaw Gilani touting Lewitt’s successes. Some unknown Jay Bell made $18,000 on a $3,000 investment. Another:Carl Gimmel, made 1100% in 24 hours. etc. etc. My name is Flipper Snuffbucket and I lost 85% of my investments with these guys- 8 trades, 7 losses. in 6 weeks. The name is fake like the names they come up with, but the loss is not fake.
Whatever you do – STAY AWAY FROM THESE GUYS.
They suck. Pure and simple.
I understand. Just got out today. I certainly have not made that profit level but primarily paper traded for most of the recommendations. I did profit with some of his recommendations but used a shorter term buy to work with current market variables. Made reasonable profits. The Zenith obviously will do well but not now. The markets need to turn down for the longer term. This could be in a few weeks or sometime early next year. They should have waited to introduce this service after the markets had corrected 5% or 10%.
I did get a full refund for less than 90 days participation. A service of this type will not pay off until the markets start trending down. According to my Elliott Wave International service, they “became bullish on the stock market at the lows in Q1 2016” Still watching for a “completed wave structure” to complete a market top. “The greatest market top in U.S. history is still in the works”. Lewitt’s service will potentially make money once markets top out. Profit potentials are obtainable on shorter market turnarounds and perhaps with closer to in the money strike prices and lower profit percentage expectations. I also do not understand where the profits you noted came from unless from one of the other Money Map services that have benefited from the rising market trend since March, 2009. Certainly didn’t happen with Zenith since its inception in September that will best benefit on a falling market trend.