Markets are people, and people overreact — bull markets get too excited and people pay irrational prices for popular stocks sometimes, and bear markets get too fearful and people sell regardless of company fundamentals and drive prices down to silly levels at other times. We can come up with some assessment of what we think […]
Articles
Why would I buy Berkshire?Somewhat of a clickbait title, but let me explain myself. I love the idea of potentially being able to live off dividends when it becomes my time to retire. I would love to be able to never have to actually sell my retirement stocks to fund my retirement or do so at such a low […]
Everybody loves an exciting IPO, even now that a little bit of the bloom has come off the rose in the past month or so with the speculative tech stocks mostly dipping well off their highs, so this pitch from Alexander Green at the Oxford Club caught my eye — he’s got what he calls […]
I’ve been falling behind on my Annual Review summations, so we’ll try to get to a bunch of them today for you… starting with what has usually been the largest holding in my portfolio over the past 15 years… Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) — I still consider Berkshire to be an attractive buy at 1.3X book […]
Nick Hodge and Gerardo del Real did not disappear for long when their newsletters stopped being published by the Outside Club… they’re back with new letters from a publisher they’re now calling Daily Profit, including Gerardo del Real’s Junior Resource Monthly (currently “on sale” for $99, this is effectively a restart of the Junior Mining […]
Happy New Year! The fact that this week’s portfolio moves included a little stop loss selling and some nibbles in asset management, insurance and music royalties probably tells you all you need to know about how cautious I feel to start this year… though, as always, I try not to have my personal sentiment drive […]
Narratives and emotion drive the market in the short term, so last week we saw the tech stocks and COVID winners take another surge higher, perhaps in some surge of “election finally done” relief or just from the indications of a likely split government ahead… this week, some combination of Joe Biden’s election victory being […]
Kind of seems like everyone wants to run away and hide until after the election, no? I can’t emphasize enough just how happy I am that this will all be over a week from now… or, at least, that the voting and the initial results will be over, I hope the polls are correct and […]
President Trump’s “germophobia” and longstanding reluctance to shake hands or hug people hasn’t saved him from exposure to the coronavirus, we learn this morning — both the President and First Lady have tested positive, following the announcement yesterday that Hope Hicks was going into quarantine after a positive test — but perhaps it will help […]
The latest teaser for Divide.com’s Premium service ($149/yr) had a headline that caught my eye: “Discover How Our Latest Best Dividend Pick in Insurance Space Is Thriving in the Pandemic” Who wouldn’t be interested in that, right? The insurance business is under scrutiny and pressure to some degree because of coverage (or lack thereof) for […]
Shall we stop for a moment to sing an early “Happy Birthday” for Warren Buffett? He will turn 90 on Sunday. And maybe another surge in Berkshire’s share price will get his fortune up to $90 billion before too long, fingers crossed on that (OK, probably not, he’s giving away his money so quickly that […]
The teaser pitches from Dan Ferris tend to get a lot of attention from Gumshoe readers, both because there aren’t all that many of them and because the big Stansberry marketing machine sometimes pushes them pretty hard… and I have a lot of sympathy with Ferris’ general “value investing” strategy, and do sometimes find his […]
Not sure what he talking about. Refers to Buffett, Icahn and Dalio. Could be Oxy preferred, Buffetts own stocks, Bank Stocks. Or something like Malones Companies where the spins off stuff. Anyway here’s the transcript: https://secure.curzioresearch.com/income-bonanza-transcript/?utm_campaign=2007-CUI-Launch-TF&utm_medium=200731_cui_launch_mkt_ded_lias&utm_source=curzio&utm_term=ded Any thoughts?
Another wild week in the life of growth stock investors — in just the course of a week Shopify, Fastly, Amazon, Docusign, Roku, NVIDIA, Teladoc and Wrap Technologies each managed to rise in value by more than 10%, some by much more, and that’s in a week that saw essentially no fundamental news about any […]
I’m still able to generate some enthusiasm about specific stocks that I think are appealing enough to buy at these prices… but I find it very hard to be optimistic in a macro sense right now, it really feels to me as though the market is whistling past the graveyard and being far too sanguine […]
Hi Travis, I have a sizable amount of BRK.B in my IRA and Im not enjoying being down 15-20% I am considering selling it all or cost averaging down. Been a widespread belief that this is a capital protective investment, seems it’s not being very protective of mine. Don’t care to make any rash decisions […]
We’re used to seeing biotech stocks surge because of the results of a clinical trial… but it’s quite crazy to see the whole market pinning its hopes on a clinical trial. Gilead’s (GILD) Remdisivir had some weak results leak last week and that helped inspire the market selloff (“Oh no, we won’t get a drug […]
We’re now a month past the “bottom” that the market hit on March 23 in the heat of the panic, and although the world is thinking about opening up now and throwing ever more “rescue” money from helicopters, we’re still not all that close to predicting when “back to normal” might hit… and just now […]
Here’s my soothsaying bit for this week, which you should feel free to ignore — like everyone else who’s predicting the future, I’m probably going to be wrong. I don’t think, even now, that we’re pricing in even the bad news that is already almost certain this year… or if we are, we’re pricing in […]
Sometimes when I’m choosing which ad to cover on a given day it’s based on the number of questions I’ve gotten, or the number of times we’ve seen the ad in the past few days… and sometimes it’s based on something that just feels like something interesting. Today it’s the latter… because Brett Aitken and […]
I shared a brief Trade Note yesterday about the sale of part of my position in Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR), and I promised to go much more in depth in my thinking today… so strap yourself in. (And if you don’t care about IIPR at all or aren’t interested in “bear attacks”, you can skip […]
What will probably serve investors best right now is patience. Don’t sell all at once, don’t buy all at once, and don’t feel like you have to do something every day. If you’re someone whose heartrate climbs as you open your brokerage account website and feel the urge to buy or sell every few minutes, […]
I knew to buy like crazy last Friday morning, because people say that I am the SMARTEST INVESTOR IN THE WORLD. Woohoo! Oops, sorry, I forgot that I wasn’t selling myself with hype-filled puffery. That’s obviously not true, I did some buying last week and opened a few new positions that have done well so […]
Thank you for coming back and reading my musings week after week, we here at Stock Gumshoe would not exist if not for the attention and generosity of readers like you. I don’t say it enough, I’m sure, but I really appreciate you being with us… and having the patience to slog through these sometimes […]
It’s been a wild week. The mood was still pretty upbeat on Monday and Tuesday, a little anxiety but a lot of complacency (including mine)… I was in Toronto early this week, with plenty of hand washing and hand sanitizer but no real signs of panic or changes in lifestyle for most folks — the […]
It’s been an unusually active month in the Real Money Portfolio — a couple big sells, several brand new positions, and quite a bit more churn than I usually have. Those transactions have mostly been fairly small, the largest position that I opened or closed was the sale of my sub-2% Facebook position, but that’s […]
It’s time for part two of our Annual Review, this week I’m getting to a few of my largest holdings, including some that reported earnings recently and have had a big impact on the market. In the big picture, we’ve seen what impact a surprise event like the viral epidemic in China can cause… and […]
Whitney Tilson has a new teaser pitch out for his entry-level newsletter… the bait to pull you in to read the ad is “America’s #1 Retirement Stock,” and then he also hints at the other four components of the “perfect portfolio” … so I thought I’d dig into that for you and see what we […]
Today I thought I’d answer a reader question about a teaser that’s of particular interest to me — not because it’s particularly heavily marketed, I haven’t even seen the original ad or article our reader cites, but because I like the topic. Here’s the question posted by Irregular bunion132 recently: In a recent piece entitled […]
A pretty quiet week as I try not to overreact to market gyrations, so we’ll be briefer than usual this Friday… but there are a few interesting things to talk about…. Crown Castle (CCI) reported a “beat and raise” quarter this week, if just barely. They raised their dividend roughly as expected this week, bumping […]
I covered a “powdered plasma” ad from Michael Robinson just yesterday, but it turns out the he’s also flogging “cryogenic blood” separately, in different ads for his same Nova-X Report newsletter, so I thought I better follow up to get rid of any confusion. The Thinkolator concluded that yesterday’s ad, teasing a Pennsylvania company, was […]
Another week of fussing about macro issues that we can neither control nor predict, what fun! The Federal Reserve did exactly what the market demanded in cutting rates, but the market was still mad because they failed to promise that they would give us each a pony. President Trump seemed angered by the lack of […]
Indulge me for a moment, dear reader — I’m going to wander around thinking about valuation and about short selling, then get into talking about a current situation that closely mirrors some of the long/short pairs trades I’ve done in the past year or so. Then we’ll talk some about gold, since that seems to […]
I don’t usually make a point of meeting or interviewing executives, mostly because I don’t want to be swayed by personal impressions of people who probably wouldn’t be in their position unless they were personable and appealing… but when you’re really dealing with a “bet the jockey” stock like Boston Omaha (BOMN), it is important […]
So… anything happen this week? 🙂 We’ll start with a few headline-grabbers from the Real Money Portfolio in the technology world, slide into a little teaser solution for you, and then share some updates on a couple small buys I made, plus some additions to the watchlist, along with the usual blather… Xilinx (XLNX) had […]
I’ve been seeing ads for the Motley Fool’s Stock Advisor Canada service recently that catch the eye… mostly because they promise what we all want, the ability to find that one stock that will turn your small investment into a life-changing fortune. They do this by starting with the story of “Forty-dollar Frank” …. “When […]
I’m a little sad not to be in Omaha this weekend for the Berkshire meeting, but I’ll be watching some of the Q&A tomorrow to see how Warren and Charlie are looking and try to get some little nuggets of wisdom from them. The biggest news lately from Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) is that they’re at […]
This teaser solution was originally published on January 22, 2019, when we first saw the ad running. The ads have still been running in recent weeks, and we’re getting questions about it again, so we’re re-posting it here for your information. The ad has not changed, and my article below has not changed, though the […]
Contra Guys: Why it may be time to dump Berkshire Hathaway Benj Gallander and Ben Stadelmann are co-editors of Contra the Heard Investment Letter We are major fans of Warren Buffett and his long-time partner Charlie Munger, who are surely two of the best investors in history. Several years ago, we went to the Berkshire […]
It seems we’ve officially entered a period of another “Fed Put” — Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s statements yesterday were widely interpreted to mean that there will be no interest rate hikes this year, or maybe ever again, and that the Fed will stop its “quantitative tightening” in six months or so, leaving a huge and […]
I haven’t written about closed-end funds in a while, so when I was skimming through the possible teaser pitches I might cover today this one caught my eye. It’s for Sovereign Man’s 4th Pillar newsletter, helmed by Tim Staermose (it’s pricey at $1,995/year but does, at least, offer a 30-day money-back refund, something most of […]
I haven’t yet gotten to a few of my largest holdings in our Annual Review, so that’s where I’ll begin today — with the insurance conglomerates Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), Markel (MKL), and Fairfax Financial (FFH.TO, FRFHF), as well as the somewhat related names Fairfax India (FIH-U.TO, FFXDF) and Boston Omaha (BOMN). I should be clear […]
The response was pretty overwhelmingly positive when I started sending out those “Trade Note” emails this week… so I’ll stick with it for a while, at least, and see how this goes. What does that mean? Same day buy/sell notes about my Real Money Portfolio will be sent to the Irregulars going forward, in hopes […]
Thanks so much to the new folks who’ve joined us as Irregulars this week — we’re midway through our annual charitable membership drive, and it’s looking pretty good… I’m hoping we can get our totals up to last year’s numbers, and we’re almost halfway there with a donation pile of close to $6,000 now. That’s […]
“When a Nevada man nicknamed, ‘Forty-dollar Frank’ first purchased his dream vacation home in Tahoe, he gathered his family on the porch for a group hug… and to give thanks to 1 stock.” That’s what we all want, right? The stock pick that changes our lives and makes life better or more fun? And that’s […]
Happy holiday season, campers! What’s up with the Real Money Portfolio as we head into a slow Thanksgiving week? The most brutal takedown of the week was NVIDIA (NVDA), which I’m sure many of you noticed this morning — that’s a stock that hit a stop loss a while back for us (I was watching […]
I haven’t written about a Frank Curzio teaser for a while, so when a few readers asked about his new “$60 billion paycheck” pitch I thought I’d take a look for you… this came as an ad for his Curzio Research Advisory, which is Frank’s “entry level” newsletter (he’s offering it at $79/year currently), and […]
There was an election on Tuesday, I hear. I voted. The counting is almost over now. Apparently the world did not end, and now we begin the campaign for the next election… everyone raise their hand who wants to vote for austerity and deficit reduction and lower spending and higher taxes and delayed Social Security […]
While we wait to see what Berkshire Hathaway’s quarter looked like, how’s the rest of the portfolio holding up? Holy Cow, Starbucks (SBUX)! Haven’t seen that stock take this big of a pop after earnings in a long time, and sentiment seems to have changed so quickly to a “this is a safe capital return […]
If you’re wondering whether it’s interest rates or just “worry about overvaluation or growth” that’s making the stock market go crazy this week, or whether it’s the trade war or political upheaval or something else, well, join the club. There’s some indication that traders are in fear of the “slowdown” that could be caused by […]
Have you been watching what’s going on with the trendy pot stocks lately? Holy crap. This reminds me now of 1999 more than it reminds me of the cryptocurrency bubble of this past winter — these larger marijuana companies, like many of the dot com companies (and unlike most cryptos, of course), are real businesses […]
I keep seeing more and more marijuana teaser ads, and yes, marijuana is an exciting sector right now with legalization in Canada and probably more incremental moves toward legalization of marijuana in the US this next election cycle… but they’re still companies that we have to analyze and understand if we’re to think of these […]
Before you get sucked into reading more of my blather, take a moment and read the Wall Street Journal if you’ve got a copy nearby or an online subscription — not the whole thing, but read Christopher Mims’ column The World Isn’t as Bad as Your Wired Brain Tells You. It’s an unusually brief and […]
Lots to discuss this week, mostly because several Real Money Portfolio companies reported earnings… and because I added money to two positions this week, and brought a new company into the portfolio. Enjoy! Shopify (SHOP) had reasonable earnings when they came out, but “reasonable” isn’t enough for a high-growth momentum stock that’s trading at almost […]
Today we’ve got a bonanza of content for my favorite people (yes, that’s you!) — a couple quick teaser solutions to close out the week, which morphs right into one little transaction in my portfolio, and then an update on a few other things that are going on with Real Money Portfolio stocks. Ready? OK, […]
This “tease” isn’t from a regular ad, it’s from a “free” article that Porter Stansberry posted earlier this week… but a couple readers asked about it, and I was curious myself, so I jumped in to check out the clues. Maybe it’s just that this ad hints at a non-sexy and rational-sounding investment at a […]
A few updates and thoughts to share with you on this fine May Friday, starting with a more detailed look a the new healthcare-related stock that I added to my portfolio a little while ago and haven’t discussed much yet. That stock is Premier, Inc. (PINC), a truly generic name for a pretty interesting company. […]
Since we’re still close to being in the afterglow of the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting, when Warren and Charlie (and now Bill Gates, too) are trotted out on CNBC for hours at a time to share their avuncular wisdom, it shouldn’t be terribly surprising that we’re seeing a few “next Berkshire” pitches again. Here’s a […]
We’ve seen a long stream of earnings reports and other worthwhile bits of data on Real Money Portfolio stocks since I last wrote to you, including some that actually included some interesting news, so prepare for a lot of quick updates…. Medical Properties Trust (MPW) reported another quarter of ho-hum… pretty much met the forecasts, […]
I’ve gotten quite a few questions recently about “income” and “buy stocks cheap” letters that are clearly veiled hints about put option selling… so I thought I’d take a look at one of them. The ad in question today is from Karim Rahemtulla, who calls himself “The Frugal Millionaire” in this spiel and has been […]
Sometimes we just need to take a step back. On Tuesday, we were headed into a devastating trade war, with a third of our exports to China subject to punishing tariffs (in response to the tariffs proposed on more than 10% of their exports to the US)… by mid-afternoon on Wednesday, the trade war is […]
What do I think? That’s what a lot of readers are asking during these volatile days… and there is, of course, no easy answer. My thoughts are all over the place, so today’s Friday File musings are going to run the gamut. Tesla (TSLA) is a good example of how the market is treating investors […]
So… what’s been happening to the Real Money Portfolio stocks this week? What else caught my eye? No transactions this week, but plenty of stuff to think about… Clean TeQ Holdings (CLQ.AX, CLQ.TO, CTEQF) announced a somewhat surprising equity raise a couple days ago. It seems inspired largely by urgency — they can’t really claim […]
The ides of February are dismal and dreary here in the wet and grey Pioneer Valley of Massachusetts, but we remain hopeful of the sunshine to come. What do I have to share with you, dear Irregulars, as we seek a little brightness to end the week? Well, I do have a few buys to […]
Welcome back, volatility! I’ve got the remainder of my Annual Review to share with you in a separate post that will be released later on, but thought I’d get my big picture thinking out of the way for you first… including a brief update about the few portfolio moves that I made today as we […]
Christian DeHaemer is pushing an ad recently that focuses on a Tesla alternative, and his latest free email touted the appeal of buying it after this latest market shakeup. So what’s the story? The ad is for his Bubble and Bust Report, which sounds like an entry-level monthly stock picking newsletter ($49/year, compared to his […]
Annual Review time! Earlier today I covered the changes that were actually made to the portfolio this week, and now I’m starting at the top of that portfolio with insurance stocks, and staying with that theme to also include a few insurance-related stocks that are smaller positions. Three of my top five equity positions are […]
So… what’s going in in the Real Money Portfolio this week, as we close up shop and get ready for a bit of time with family and friends? I do have one buy to share with you today, I decided to pick up some shares of the stock that I wrote to you about a […]
It turned out to be blockchain week here at Stock Gumshoe, with the massive wave of bitcoin-related teasers hitting my inbox, so I should update you on that… The tiny fragment of cryptocurrencies that I still had in my wallets after selling essentially all of those positions in September has once again grown from a […]
Well, we finish out the week with yet another dramatic performance from the market-dominating tech stocks. Alphabet (GOOG) did better than expected and popped a bit, climbing further through the day, almost as much as the gains Microsoft (MSFT) made on a more dramatic ‘beat’ of expectations (though analysts have always been better at estimating […]
Weekly escalations in nuclear threats, record-breaking hurricanes… what is it going to take to shake investor sentiment for more than 24 hours? The S&P 500 is ending the week only down about a third of one percent, gold is up less than 2%, this is a market that is reacting to headlines pretty quickly… but […]
We’re all growing more and more immune to hyperbole, I hope, but the combination of hype-filled newsletter pitches, shallow commentary from attention whores on CNBC, and clickbait headlines is enough to put you off investing in the market at all… how many times can you hear words like “collapse” and “beaten down” and “nightmare” applied […]
Lots of folks have been asking me about Bitcoin and Ethereum and the other alt-currencies of late, for obvious reasons (well, it’s obvious why folks are curious about it — far less obvious why anyone would seek my wisdom on the subject)… so I’ve got an extended bit of blather about those currencies to share […]
Nicholas Vardy has been pitching this “secret” stock for a few years now — I first noticed his ads along these lines back in 2015, when he called the stock a “Buffett clone” that had beaten Berkshire by 70%, and then looked at it last year when he started using that “greatest wealth compounding machine” […]
First, let’s get the week’s changes to my Real Money Portfolio out of the way… and after that, I’ve got a few other updates on stocks that I follow for you, dear Irregulars. We’ve got a new stock in the portfolio…. As of tomorrow, I will have a position in NVIDIA (NVDA). This is a […]
Before I get into some updates on my Real Money Portfolio, I’ve got a quick look at a teaser that several of you have asked about: Keith Schaefer’s pitch for his Oil and Gas Investments Bulletin about a “perfect business model” and “everything you want as an investor.” Here’s how Keith gets our mouths watering: […]
I’ve got some notes (mostly brief, I hope) to share about the various quarterly earnings reports that have hit my Real Money Portfolio stocks this week… but I have gotten a pile of reader questions so I wanted to start with a look at Sandstorm Gold (SAND), which announced a pretty big deal earlier in […]
Charles Mizrahi moved over to Angel Publishing a year or so ago, so we’re seeing a lot more ads for his Inevitable Wealth Portfolio. And the latest one pretty well bangs us over the head with the huge promises… including a “make 109 times your money” in the next decade headline, which is a dramatic […]
Today I thought I’d first share a few notes I made from the presentation that Pat Dorsey made made at the MIT Sloan Investment Conference I attended a couple weeks ago, since that’s the presentation that really had the most resonance for individual investors (and led to a few ideas that might be worth considering), […]
have an example of a crazy return in my portfolio this week, and it’s getting close to the time that I have to make a decision about it. My remaining position in Shopify (SHOP) April Call Options, on which I’ve already taken a profit in excess of my initial investment, was glowing on my spreadsheet […]
I’ve gotten a few questions about Jason Williams’ free Wealth Daily article on Friday that hinted at “Warren Buffett’s Next Target,” so I thought we’d take a moment to throw those clues into the ol’ Thinkolator for you. There is a cottage industry on Wall Street right now that really demonstrates the short-termism of the […]
Hello, merry Gumshoe-ers! I’m going to be on the road next week to attend two conferences, the Grant’s Interest Rate Observer conference in New York mid-week, and the MIT Sloan Conference on Friday — so I’ll be sharing some notes with you with my thoughts on what I hear at those confabs, with fingers crossed […]
Nicholas Vardy has a newer low-end advisory called Smart Money Masters, and it looks like he’s aiming to be one of the “whale watchers” who run 13F-following services — the folks who watch the big buys by Warren Buffett and a couple dozen of the big hedge funds and institutional investors, and try to emulate […]
My eyes lit up when I saw the latest ad from Paul Mampilly for his Profits Unlimited newsletter — more geothermal! Woohoo! Even the ad looked familiar — we saw quite a few of those ‘heat map’ images of the US five or ten years ago when geothermal stocks “heated up,” so it gave me […]
I spent last week vacationing in Sarasota, Florida, near the old stomping grounds of one of my favorite authors, John D. MacDonald… so I ended up re-reading several volumes of his Travis McGee series as part of my vacation escape from the world. But MacDonald always included some social or environmental commentary in his novels, […]
I’ve got a hodgepodge of ideas and small news items for you this week, plus a few transactions in my Real Money Portfolio that I’ve mostly noted for the Irregulars in quick notes earlier in the week. The market is expensive, but there’s no reason for a long-term investor to sell just because it’s expensive […]
A few readers forwarded this email to me recently, though I don’t know how widely it’s being disseminated at the moment… it is an ad for the Motley Fool’s flagship Stock Advisor newsletter, which has probably gotten more coverage in the pages of Stock Gumshoe than any other newsletter (if only because it’s an inexpensive […]
Throughout January these Friday Files are taking on the form of my “Annual Review” of my holdings, which will culminate in a clearer listing of what I own and focus on, including portfolio allocations that I have personally, and a clearer delineation between the stuff I write about because it’s interesting, and the stuff I […]
I’ll write some more detail about this on Friday when I get to our Friday File for the week, but wanted just to note two personal purchases I’ve made. I bought some shares of Franco-Nevada (FNV), a very small position at this point as I wade into it during this fall in the price of […]
Today we’ve got a pitch from Nicholas Vardy’s Alpha Investor Letter, and it is blissfully not about the election at all. Let’s all just breathe a sign of relief, “ahhhhhhhhh.” Soon, one hopes, every day will be like this moment. Here’s what caught my eye about this “personal invitation” from Nicholas Vardy: “Discover the Profit […]
The market is down hard over these past couple weeks, thanks to worries about relatively steep valuations, the likelihood of an interest rate hike from the Fed next month and, much more than anything else, a full-on panic about the possibility of a Donald Trump presidency that would, one fears, bring an almost endless stream […]
Time for some “Idea of the Month” thoughts for you, dear Irregulars. When you think the investing climate is a little more nerve-wracking than usual, why not go with a master investor who’s also nervous and is preparing for an awful economy? I’ve spoken quite a few times about my fondness for insurance company stocks. […]
Quite a few of our readers have sent in questions about this ad over the last day or two, which actually gives me a bit more hope for humanity — after all, this kind of promise of a “wealth compounding machine” should be much more compelling than the high-risk, highly-speculative “Double in a week” ideas […]
Today’s teaser is a pretty short one, from the Motley Fool for their flagship Stock Advisor newsletter, but most ads from the Fool make the Gumshoe faithful perk their ears up so we’re going to cover it quickly for you today. And I think I’ve covered more teaser picks for Motley Fool Stock Advisor than […]
This week we don’t have a new teaser solution for your Friday File pleasure, so I’ll stick with some updates on a few stocks I’ve been watching this week… and next week, we’ll get our “Idea of the Month” piece up for you. And we also have a new piece from Dr. KSS up today, […]
Markel hosts a brunch each year following the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting, and has done so for 25 years now — during which time the company has grown considerably, from a small $100 million family-controlled specialty insurance company just starting to explore value investing with their new portfolio manager, Tom Gayner, to a $12 billion […]
That headline is a quote from Charlie Munger from today’s Annual Meeting for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) here in Omaha, and it’s one of the ones that really caught my ear. He was responding to a question about how he and Buffett avoid making big predictive calls about the economy, or assessing the near-term health of […]
We’re just about shut down here at Stock Gumshoe HQ for the market holiday today, but I do have some updated thoughts and musings for you about a few of the companies I own and write about with some regularity: Leucadia (LUK), Medical Properties Trust (MPW), and Fosun (FOSUF). And I should also update you […]
So what’s been happening since I last wrote to you, dear Irregulars? I’ve got a couple teaser picks to reveal for you in a moment, but first there are a few thoughts to get off the ol’ Gumshoe chest. We’ve seen a nice recovery from the healthcare REITs, which are still quite reasonably priced (DOC, […]
Each year I go through all of the stocks that I either own personally or have brought to the attention of the Irregulars (there’s quite a bit of overlap on those lists), and I make sure to update my thoughts and opinion on that stock in an organized and, hopefully, disciplined way — that helps […]
We originally covered a teaser ad very similar to this on October 30, 2013. The ad promising a “Next Berkshire Hathaway” is circulating again and generating more questions from our readers, so I’m re-analyzing it here for your information. The ad has been slightly updated with new numbers over the years, and this article has […]
[ed. note: We’re closed for the holidays and running our charitable membership campaign, but thought you might find this guest article from longtime Berkshire shareholder David Mazor worth a read. His words and opinions are his own. Enjoy!] Is it time to break up Berkshire Hathaway? A November 14, 2015, opinion piece in Barron’s by […]
Well, today I did what Tradestops told me I should have done a couple months ago: I sold the rest of my Greenlight Re shares. Greenlight Capital Reinsurance (GLRE) is a Caymans reinsurance company Chaired by David Einhorn, the famed hedge fund manager. Its primary reason for being is to give Einhorn a large “captive” […]
Apparently Apple had some sort of news this week, and I guess the Federal Reserve is supposed to do something next week, eh? Well, there are thousands of market pundits who will tell you all about those things — and dozens who will tell you that the world is going to start coming to an […]
I wrote earlier in the week that I had made a personal investment in Fosun, and that I’d follow up with you to update my thoughts on the company… so that’s what we’re going to do today. It’s been a busy week in the markets, as you probably noticed, and I also had some quick […]
There’s been quite a bit of buzz about the rumored “Apple Car” over the last year or so — with some folks getting ahead of themselves and anticipating an Apple buyout of Tesla, or a new Apple car on the road within this decade… but even if we aren’t going to see an iCar on […]
[ed note: I’m traveling and not writing much this week or next, so thought I would introduce you to an investor who I met in Omaha — David Mazor writes Mazor’s Edge, which he describes as offering “clear, concise news and analysis of Berkshire Hathaway and its companies.” He’s an interesting guy, and he’s a […]
This article was originally published in late January — Andy Obermueller is teasing Apple suppliers again, hinting that the Apple “Growth Window” will close up on September 30 (presumably when we start freaking out about their next wave of iPhones and iPads, usually introduced around then), and the descriptions of the teased stocks that he […]
Maybe the scariest thing I can tell you is, “I’m not selling everything.” The drumbeat in my head continues to be one of worry, I continue to be a little bit surprised at how high stocks are going, and how resilient stocks are. But thankfully, I haven’t been acting on those macro worries — because […]
We’ve been on strange schedules here in Gumshoeland for the last two weeks, and during that time we’ve seen a large number of quarterly reports come through that deserve some attention or comment… as well as a few other notable news items that I feel like I should pay attention to. And, of course, we’ve […]
I took a lot of notes when I was with 40,000 of my closest friends at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting this weekend — heck, I even picked up a pair of commemorative Brooks running shoes and a bag full of Sees Candy (I resisted the urge to buy the Justin cowboy boots with the […]
The Value Investor Conference in Omaha, hosted by the business school at the University of Nebraska-Omaha, is not like most investment conferences — there are a few presenters who speak about specific ideas that they find compelling, and some of them go into detail on those as a way to explain their thought process, but […]
Here comes the dividend! OK, it’s not that exciting — but, as we’ve talked about quite a bit in the past year, Altius Minerals (ALS.TO, ATUSF) yesterday announced that they will now start paying a dividend. It’s what I would call a “token” dividend, really just a signal of their interest in repaying shareholders for […]
I’m feeling a little bit old today because my fourth baby, Stock Gumshoe, just celebrated its eighth birthday. Eight years of solving teasers, sharing thoughts, and defusing marketing hype… and it’s still such a cute little fella! I certainly never expected this to grow and get the attention of so many people when I sat […]
This teaser ad from Nicholas Vardy’s Alpha Investor has been circulating at least since last October, but it appears to be getting more “life” in it these days — or, at least, we’re getting more readers asking about it. The ad hasn’t changed, though the stock has moved up a bit over the last six […]
I was waiting to see what happened to this teased stock when their annual results are released, but the questions have been piling up from readers and the company still has two weeks left before they have to report, so I thought I’d at least try to get some of the answers out for you […]
I’ve got a half dozen notes and comments on companies I own and follow for your Friday File pleasure today, but first I want to toss out a teaser solution for you to chew on… it’s a fun one. The pitch is from Keith Kohl for his new High Yield Energy Report, a newsletter that […]
All of you, dear Irregulars, know that Stock Gumshoe is not a “tip sheet,” and I don’t operate a portfolio for other people to emulate or copy, or even attempt to track the stocks we cover as if they were a portfolio of buys and sells with consistent trading advice… but I do keep a […]
Insurance is one of the fairly large sectors in my personal portfolio, and several of the stocks I talk about often are in that business, so I wanted to take a quick look at those ideas and the state of the industry for you today — then I’ve got another interesting new name to kick […]
This latest pitch from Julia Guth is an ad for the Oxford Club Communique, their “entry level” newsletter, and she’s selling us on the idea that there’s an “Ideal Retirement Booster (IRB)” that can help you reduce risk and extend your standard of living during retirement by 27 years. Which sounds almost magical, right? That’s […]
This week there’s been quite a bit of news in stocks that I follow fairly closely or own or have featured in the past as “Idea of the Month” candidates for the irregulars, so I do have a bit of a teaser campaign to talk to you about (that’s the Casey bit), but I’m going […]
May 12 Update: The lateset teaser pitch from the Fool is touting this same stock again, only with a different spiel from a different company as they tout the “connected car” instead of the “autonomous car”. I presume they’re just testing different ads to see what works best — this latest one pitches it as: […]
A hodgepodge of thoughts and comments to catch up with thoughts on a few companies that have reported quarterly results or had other meaningful news as I was on vacation — and a quick note on a small buy. First, I need to let you know that I bought a few JP Morgan warrants (JPM-WT) […]
These are my notes and instant reactions from a presentation at the Value Investing Congress, the notes below might contain errors, paraphrases, incorrect quotes, or misinterpretations. This presentation was not so much about presenting on one stock as it was about explaining his way of thinking, and the kinds of long-term decisionmaking he thinks is […]
These are my notes and instant reactions from a presentation at the Value Investing Congress, the notes below might contain errors, paraphrases, incorrect quotes, or misinterpretations. Carlo Cannell has presented at past Congresses, though I don’t know if I’ve written about him before. He argued that boring and mundane industries are the way to go… […]
If I had a dollar for every time someone promised they had found the “next Warren Buffett” I’d be rich! OK, maybe not, but I would have enough money to subscribe to some of these overpromising newsletters … The appeal is obvious — if you hitch your wagon to a rising investing star and get […]
I’ve got a whole passel of things to comment on for you today — I want to update my thoughts on some insurance company stocks that I own and that I touted as beneficiaries of a big switch in the insurance market over the past year or so, check in on a buy and a […]
Want to know what those “Movable Pipelines” are that are being teased by the folks at Contrarian Profits? So did we … here’s how they teased the idea in their recent ad: “The $5.8 Billion Reason the U.S. Government May Never Approve Another Pipeline… “So much American oil is flowing out of the ground there […]
Just a note to confirm that my limit order to add a few more Berkshire Hathaway shares to my portfolio was triggered while I was on vacation — so I now own a few more shares, bought at about $111. I consider that an abundantly reasonable price but not a bargain price — with Berkshire […]
Yep, I’m writing about another insurance company. And you’ll have this to chew on for a while, I’ll be on vacation for most of next week so we won’t have a Friday File (unless something dramatic pulls me away from the beach) or many new articles of any sort on the site next week. So […]
Ed. note: Here is another installment from longtime reader Myron Martin. Myron has agreed to our trading restrictions (he won’t trade the stocks he mentions for three days), but we have not reviewed, approved or screened his stocks or ideas, and the opinions he expresses are solely his own. Myron’s past commentaries can be seen […]
We brought you Myron Martin’s latest column for the Irregulars this morning, which included some new ideas in the junior resource stock space — that’s not where I prefer to invest most of the time, but I know a lot of you like those kinds of stocks so hopefully you find his musings to be […]
It’s been an interesting year so far — this week has helped to heal some wounds but my personal portfolio has lagged the market for much of the year, thanks largely to some substantial positions in stocks that were sensitive either to interest rate rises (like Retail Opportunity Investments Corp, ROIC, a favorite REIT) or […]
I try to share my opinions with readers like you in a variety of different ways, from my notes on each teaser stock I cover to my more thorough looks at “idea of the month” picks or stocks that I buy personally … but investing is a very quantifiable thing, so even though my investment […]
Whitney Tilson presented on several of his older ideas and a few new ones, and started off by telling us that the most dangerous three word phase in investing is “I Missed It.” That’s the phenomenon of missing a huge performer because you don’t want to buy after it’s risen — just because you missed […]
Today is a fun day for every value investor out there — it’s the day Warren Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders comes out. So for God’s sake, don’t waste too much time with your friendly neighborhood Gumshoe if you haven’t read that one yet. You can get to it here if you’re curious, or check […]
I haven’t bought shares of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) in about a year and a half — the last time I added to my Berkshire holdings was just before Buffett and the board publicly announced that they’d authorize buying back shares if they dipped below what they considered a fair price. At the time that was […]
There’s a good, blustery ad up from Brian Hicks and the folks at Angel Publishing about Warren Buffett and his insider connections … … connections that have not only helped him make big, profitable deals for his shareholders (including yours truly, so thanks for that), but that have enabled him to drive government policy to […]
John Mauldin launched a newsletter last year called Yield Shark, a bit of a departure from his frequent “big picture” musings about the economy and trends and the “end game” of government fiscal crisis … … so now he has folks recommending specific stocks that they think will benefit from the end game and provide […]
Everyone in the investing punditry game has to make predictions, so I’ll go out on a limb here and let you know which of the stocks in the Gumshoe universe I’m most excited about for the coming year. I’m also, so you know, going to be revamping how I present and track the “Idea of […]
There was big news from one of my personal holdings this week, and it’s also a stock that I’ve suggested twice to the Irregulars and written about several times over the years so I thought it warranted at least a little reaction … particularly because it drove the shares down precipitously. So I’ve bought more […]
I just added to my holdings in Greenlight RE (GLRE), which was featured as our Idea of the Month recently. Why? Mostly because the stock is a little cheaper, and other insurers are starting to indicate that they’re hurting when it comes to their investment returns — the most recent warning was from a different […]
This won’t shock you, probably, but I bought into the stock of a reinsurance company last week and, after reading up on the company some more and spending time with their filings and reports, I’m going to suggest that you take a look at this one as well. And it doesn’t hurt that, thanks to […]
So many people are asking me about the election results that I feel like I should share some of my opinions — but the short answer is: I can’t help it, stock prices that fall make me want to buy more stock. Stocks fell a bit after the election. And I bought some more today. […]
The folks at StreetAuthority delight in lists of “bests” — best stocks for 2011, best stocks for 2012, best stocks to hold forever, we’ve looked at several of them over the years. And now, what we’re being teased with by these folks are “WGB” investments … which, in case you don’t have the patience to […]
The second day of the Value Investing Congress resulted in mostly headlines about David Einhorn shorting Chipotle (CWG), since that was the only thing he shared that seemed new and sexy, but he and several other presenters also shared some interesting thoughts that stood out for me about a few of the victims/villains of the […]
Whitney Tilson had a good update presentation on some of his ideas this morning — nothing earth-shaking, and not much “new” news beyond what he shared during our pre-conference seminar yesterday or in past conferences, but he did reiterate his pitch that Berkshire Hathaway remains a ridiculous bargain, he now puts roughly a 12 PE […]
This month I have two stocks that are really catching my attention: one that I’ve held for many years and think is one of the most solid and steady companies you can buy, at a nice value right now; and one that caught my eye following a teaser writeup I did a couple weeks back, […]
Nicholas Vardy has a splashy new ad out predicting that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will hit 15,014 by October of this year — which would be about a 17% gain from today’s price (the DOW is at 12,880 or so right now). And naturally, he’s got the best way for you to profit from […]
This ad is not exactly brand new, but folks have been sending in queries about it for a few weeks, and pretty steadily, so I thought I’d try to get some answers out for you. The pitch is from Ian Wyatt, who’s trying to sell his Top Stock Insights newsletter by throwing in a “special […]
Most of the time I write about the investment newsletter business — the pundits who sell their expertise, the copywriters who make the mundane seem otherworldly, and the outrageous promises and teases that the publishers use to convince us to subscribe to newsletters that proffer investment research and stock tips. But it’s worth noting that […]
I don’t think I’ve ever written a word about Charles Mizrahi, but he’s been around for a while as a respected value stock picker with at least one newsletter under his name … and he’s got a teaser ad out now that’s getting the attention of Gumshoe readers, so I thought it an opportune time […]
I’m afraid the mind is more willing than the body today, I seem to have picked up some sort of flu bug so I’ll be brief today and will share some more thoughts on the Value Investing Congress and the ideas we learned about in the weeks ahead. Which is probably for the best, since […]
Just a quick note that this morning a limit order that I’ve had sitting in my account for a while triggered, and as a result I boosted my holdings in Berkshire Hathaway by about 20% (yes, I’m a small investor so these are the B shares — BRK.B in most quote systems). The company is […]
Paul Tracy of StreetAuthority has been touting a special report he’s selling called “10 Best Stocks to Hold Forever” — he uses the example of the March 2009 market bottom as a great time to buy dominant, dividend-paying multinational companies … … and says that the recent market weakness again points at the opportunity provided […]
This note is very different from what I would write were it entitled, “Front-Running Buffett with David Sokol” — but since he has ended up in the SEC’s crosshairs, and been thrown under the bus by Warren since he made the ridiculously foolish choice to buy shares in a stock he was scouting out as […]
Well, if the last ten years have taught us nothing else, we should have learned that this has been a spectacular time to promise that your investments are like Warren Buffett’s, or to sell folks on the idea of the “next” Berkshire Hathaway or Oracle of Omaha. I’ve written about probably dozens of stocks that […]
I just added shares of Sandstorm Resources to my portfolio, after having it brought to my attention by one persistent reader and digging into the basics, so for today’s Friday File I thought I’d explore this stock for you, getting into some of the detail and the reasons why I bought. Before that, though, I […]
Investors always worry about the so-called “value trap,” a company that looks cheap but will forever remain cheap, luring investors in with a low PE ratio and miring them in the muck for years as they wait for others to see the “value” — sometimes we’ll also see “dividend traps,” where stocks entice investors with […]
If email volumes are any indication, investors are frantic about lithium as the next great growth “commodity” story — and a lot of my readers are really interested in learning more about the “locked-down lithium play” being teased by Alternative Energy Speculator. And hey, I like making money from electric cars as much as the […]
“Why Warren Buffett … The Obama Administration… T. Rowe Price … Even Big Oil Now Crave This $8 Company’s Revolutionary Technology “… And how following their lead – right now – could easily triple your money within the next six months!” So begins the new version of a teaser I’ve seen for months but never […]
OK, so let me just warn you up front: The latest ad from Nancy Zambell for her new Buried Treasure under $10 newsletter has a lot of, well, hooey in it. But really, doesn’t that just make it more fun? Here’s how the hype begins: “Buffett has sunk $2 billion into the next Wal-Mart Here’s […]
This is a little quickie from Green Chip International, a newsletter that is, like so many others, apparently boasting of more big discounts in their subscription rate — don’t know if anyone ever actually paid the “official” $995 subscription rate, but now they’re trying to get you to subscribe for $300. Still, that’s quite a handful of greenbacks for a newsletter that hasn’t had much opportunity to prove itself yet — so let’s see if we can figure out some of what they’re touting for us today. The big spiel is all about what they’re calling … “China’s $555 Billion ‘Environmental Liability Insurance’ …”
October 10 Update: I sold Loews, and can’t urge anyone to buy or hold it here. Did anyone say “no take backs?” I sold my Loews shares today, less than two weeks after writing the following analysis. They remain cheap relative to their “competitors” like Berkshire and Markel, but those two and so many others […]
I can’t think of anything intelligent to say about the current political and Wall Street mess, other than that in times like these I tend to hunker down and slow my trading, and focus more and more on multi-year investments in companies that I’m pretty sure will thrive in the next decade regardless of where […]
I bought a little more Berkshire Hathaway today (the B-shares, I don’t yet own a private jet). I’ve been thinking of picking up Berkshire or one of the other cash rich, insurance-fueled conglomerates for some time now, largely because they are poised, if they’re careful, to pick up some tremendous bargains as the market panics. […]
Now this one sounds exciting, eh? I don’t want to say that the mighty, mighty Gumshoe is a lazy man, but I must admit that the idea of a work week that lasts only ten minutes has some appeal … what the heck are they talking about? It’ll take me longer than ten minutes, but […]
StreetAuthority is calling a recent buy of Warren Buffett’s “The little stock that could make you rich” — it’s apparently a retailer that Buffett “recently” bought, to the tune of 14 million shares (I’m afraid I can’t sing along at that volume, but I do always like to know what Buffett’s buying). The wise and […]
This is a follow-up to our look at the “Pasadena Secret Investment Society,” which teased us with five other holding companies that the Porter Stansberry Investment Advisory thinks are great investments. In the words of Stansberry & Associates, “If you’d like to make a small fortune in America today, we believe the only safe and […]
I’ve gotten a lot of email about Porter Stansberry’s latest ad campaign, the one that teases the existence of “secret societies” that you can participate in and significantly outperform the market. Of course, the mystique sells the newsletters … but are these “secret societies” for real? Let’s take a look. This “Pasadena Secret Society” … […]
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No real reason to choose Berkshire over an S&P 500 fund or a portfolio of large and stable dividend payers if you want t...
good morning travis! like yourself i have a relatively large position in brk.b in my portfolio. i have had it for a few ...
I don’t know what Izhmsa is talking about. For about a year BRK.B was one of 4 top holdings. Recently that position h...
And we just learned that Berkshire Hathaway bought at least half a billion dollars worth of shares in one of the largest...
BRK-B Warren Buffet live stream NOW link: https://finance.yahoo.com/brklivestream/ Best!...
Of the following I could probably purchase one of them. Which would be the most solid to purchase in order of best to le...
FYI, Buffett confirmed today that the Kroger purchase was not one of his personal decisions (so it must have been Combs ...
Regarding Travis' statement above, "I don’t think Berkshire will beat the S&P 500 dramatically in a bull market, ...
Amazing work Travis! Would love to hear your take on the New Berkshire moves. Like the new stake in kroger, and Index ...
The Current Warren Buffet Car https://www.newtraderu.com/2020/01/24/the-current-warren-buffett-car/ https://www.new...
It has come at an opportune time for me, I divested to cash for the year end, mainly irritation with the spanish demand ...
I am not a fan of Amazon, Facebook or Altria. I don't mind BRK-B although I have to wonder what deal was made with Obam...
This is not a simple matter of switching fuels on January 1. As mentioned earlier, some operators have elected to inst...
The Intelligent Investing Podcast 45:15 #55: The Joys Of Compounding; Gautam Baid https://ericschleien.com/podcast/gau...
Travis, do you think buying BRK.B (the real deal!) now at $214 would be a sound decision? Buffet apparently said that ...
For whatever this is info is worth, Whitney Tilson -- allegedly considered by peers and politicians as a "prophet" of Wa...
Same here in US, I am in Pacific N0rthwest (still Friday April 12); 13 year old granddaughter on youtube constantly, and...
John Hussman's bearish thinking sounds similar to Harry Dent at newsletter Boom & Bust, to which I subscribe - inexpensi...
Book value becomes less relevant as Berkshire's non-stock assets grow larger. I like to value the stock based on a comb...
BRK-B made some huge mistakes of late with IBM, Wells Fargo and recently Kraft Heinz - I only have a very small position...
Great take on the BRK.B Mr. Johnson (using MR. as a sign of respect). Kudos on your insight and evaluations. I really...
Overcharged for his service. His investment portfolio is a joke. The largest newsletter's holding is BRK.B while he neve...
Thank you for the link to today's released Berkshire's annual report; I read Warren Buffets' letter to shareholders - 1s...
That would be private information. But Travis does give the percentage of market value for each stock in the portfolio v...
Some brokers use slightly different variations when there are multiple share classes (or for stuff like preferreds or wa...
Trying add BRK-B to tdameritrade account will not accept sysmbol !! ? ?...
Berkshire (as of last quarter) owns about 252 million shares of Apple, their largest holding (by far), so that portfolio...
I think the key man risk lessens when Buffett dies or retires — my feeling is that the risk he’ll do something big a...
Thanks Travis, another nice, quick read! How much key-man risk do you attribute to Berkshire overall? Specifically, afte...
Well, Apple is still only part of Berkshire's portfolio... and it's certainly not seen as a huge Apple play at the momen...
How come BRK.B didnt take a beating, considering the exposure it has to AAPL?...
Its interesting how the Apple worm has turned. From the perception of innovation when Steve Jobs “invented” the iPo...
Great read! (as usual)... With $AAPL taking such a hit, how come BRK.B isnt getting hammered along with that. Its a majo...
Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. I love it when the VIX shoots up and I have dry po...
I think Berkshire is an easy buy around $200 for the long term (years), but it could easily fall below that if the marke...
Hasn't Buffett's fund slipped in the last ten years of semiconductor fever and the clamor over Cloud coverage? Certainl...
Warren Buffett would agree with you, he has noted that diversification is only for those who don't know what they're doi...
The current volatility quotient stop loss from TradeStops would be just under $155, about an 18% stop loss. Makes as mu...
I loved this article. However, not sure that I agree with your hold tight comment on Berkshire Hathaway. According to ...
FYI, interesting piece from CNBC that pulls some of Buffett's historical commentary on "investing during inflation" in t...
The number of investment bankers banging on the door in Omaha urging Berkshire's board to spin off assets or break up th...