I don’t know what’s going to happen to interest rates, taxes, GDP growth or the stock market, all of which are intertwined, but right now the sentiment expressed by the market seems still to be vaccine-driven optimism about economic recovery from the pandemic, which implies that the renewed push to speed up vaccinations will lead […]
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Happy New Year! The fact that this week’s portfolio moves included a little stop loss selling and some nibbles in asset management, insurance and music royalties probably tells you all you need to know about how cautious I feel to start this year… though, as always, I try not to have my personal sentiment drive […]
As we close in on the end of the year, with the market still rallying so fiercely, I’ve begun to think about risk management a little bit more — I’ve been using the stellar performance of many of my options speculations this year to take profits and “let out the steam.” As I see it, […]
We won’t be posting a Friday File next week due to the Thanksgiving holiday, and publishing will be light in general for the next few days for the same reason (though we will, of course, feature our annual Turkey of the Year) … so perhaps you can take some solace in the fact that this […]
Quite a week, no? As expected, my predictions about the election were wrong… and, perhaps more importantly, even anyone making a prediction about how the election returns were going to come out would have probably been wrong in guessing what might happen to the market in the wake of those results. I expected there to […]
Let’s start with the obvious, just to get my weekly brain dump underway for you: We don’t know what the election will hold, or where the market will go from here… I continue to think stocks are pretty expensive, particularly the hottest tech stocks (and I still own a lot of them), but I also […]
Interest rates will be near zero for three more years now, we expect — that’s the basic takeaway from the Federal Reserve’s press conference this week. So what does that mean? In order to make money to meet their future obligations, retirees and pension funds and other investors have to take more risks. That’s ugly […]
I’ve gotten a pile of new questions about Stansberry Venture Value this week, all relating to their pitch for some cloud SaaS stocks — and I found the first pitch about these stocks pretty compelling back in February, and even ended up buying two of them, so I thought it would be worth digging in […]
Shall we stop for a moment to sing an early “Happy Birthday” for Warren Buffett? He will turn 90 on Sunday. And maybe another surge in Berkshire’s share price will get his fortune up to $90 billion before too long, fingers crossed on that (OK, probably not, he’s giving away his money so quickly that […]
Every once in a while I cite the DALBAR studies, or other indicators and reports that can serve as reminders that each of us is his own worst enemy in the market — and there was another such release of data this week. Vanguard looked at the small subset of its investors who were active […]
GANIt’s been almost three weeks since I last dug into the Real Money Portfolio and shared my updated thoughts… and a lot has been happening, with earnings reports and other big news from a lot of Real Money Portfolio stocks, so buckle in and I’ll try to at least hit the high and low points […]
Another wild week in the life of growth stock investors — in just the course of a week Shopify, Fastly, Amazon, Docusign, Roku, NVIDIA, Teladoc and Wrap Technologies each managed to rise in value by more than 10%, some by much more, and that’s in a week that saw essentially no fundamental news about any […]
Stock Gumshoe is closed today for the Independence Day holiday, but I did put together a few thoughts last night, and have a couple updates for you on the Real Money Portfolio, so we at least have an abbreviated Friday File for you… Hipgnosis Songs Fund (SONG in London, HPGSF OTC in the US) has […]
If my limited interactions with the outside world are any indication, I’d say we’ve gotten to the “cab driver” period that institutional investors often talk about: When your cab driver starts giving you stock tips, the top is probably near. That’s not a reliable predictor, of course, and I guess it would be Uber drivers […]
We saw a big recovery over the past week or so from those cyclical stocks that were hurt by coronavirus, as the excitement about reopening and vaccine development sends people out of direct beneficiaries of the outbreak like Teladoc (TDOC) and the stuck-at-home names and into the stocks that were most hurt by the shutdown. […]
Sea Ltd (SE) is the stock I spent most of my time writing to you about last week, and they reported strong first quarter earnings on Monday. As expected, they saw some acceleration in users and revenue as the coronavirus began to impact Southeast Asia in March… and some indications that April represented even stronger […]
I’m still able to generate some enthusiasm about specific stocks that I think are appealing enough to buy at these prices… but I find it very hard to be optimistic in a macro sense right now, it really feels to me as though the market is whistling past the graveyard and being far too sanguine […]
We’re used to seeing biotech stocks surge because of the results of a clinical trial… but it’s quite crazy to see the whole market pinning its hopes on a clinical trial. Gilead’s (GILD) Remdisivir had some weak results leak last week and that helped inspire the market selloff (“Oh no, we won’t get a drug […]
We’re now a month past the “bottom” that the market hit on March 23 in the heat of the panic, and although the world is thinking about opening up now and throwing ever more “rescue” money from helicopters, we’re still not all that close to predicting when “back to normal” might hit… and just now […]
I knew to buy like crazy last Friday morning, because people say that I am the SMARTEST INVESTOR IN THE WORLD. Woohoo! Oops, sorry, I forgot that I wasn’t selling myself with hype-filled puffery. That’s obviously not true, I did some buying last week and opened a few new positions that have done well so […]
Yesterday we looked into the first “Hidden SaaS” cloud software stock hinted at in the ads for Stansberry Venture Value, and today, as promised, we’re on to number two… there’s also a third one hinted at, but the clues are pretty sparse on that one (so no promises). Let’s just jump right in — what […]
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Or perhaps he simply signed up and invested in something based upon a little green dot that says "buy" under it. Big mi...