Narratives and emotion drive the market in the short term, so last week we saw the tech stocks and COVID winners take another surge higher, perhaps in some surge of “election finally done” relief or just from the indications of a likely split government ahead… this week, some combination of Joe Biden’s election victory being […]
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Kind of seems like everyone wants to run away and hide until after the election, no? I can’t emphasize enough just how happy I am that this will all be over a week from now… or, at least, that the voting and the initial results will be over, I hope the polls are correct and […]
The plan for today? Figure out what other name might be associated with Nikola Tesla, and use it as the name for a new-age company. Venture funding should flow without regard to merit, and you might just be able to go straight to an IPO and buy that private island. Nikola (NKLA) is taken, thanks […]
Have you ever heard the quote, “nothing tastes as good as thin feels?” Such sayings have been attributed to waif model Kate Moss, plenty of her anorexic fans, and dozens of others in the perfection industry (including Stephen Covey), and I’ll confess that the sentiment has never resonated with me even a little bit (as […]
We’re used to seeing biotech stocks surge because of the results of a clinical trial… but it’s quite crazy to see the whole market pinning its hopes on a clinical trial. Gilead’s (GILD) Remdisivir had some weak results leak last week and that helped inspire the market selloff (“Oh no, we won’t get a drug […]
We’re now a month past the “bottom” that the market hit on March 23 in the heat of the panic, and although the world is thinking about opening up now and throwing ever more “rescue” money from helicopters, we’re still not all that close to predicting when “back to normal” might hit… and just now […]
Here’s my soothsaying bit for this week, which you should feel free to ignore — like everyone else who’s predicting the future, I’m probably going to be wrong. I don’t think, even now, that we’re pricing in even the bad news that is already almost certain this year… or if we are, we’re pricing in […]
What will probably serve investors best right now is patience. Don’t sell all at once, don’t buy all at once, and don’t feel like you have to do something every day. If you’re someone whose heartrate climbs as you open your brokerage account website and feel the urge to buy or sell every few minutes, […]
Thank you for coming back and reading my musings week after week, we here at Stock Gumshoe would not exist if not for the attention and generosity of readers like you. I don’t say it enough, I’m sure, but I really appreciate you being with us… and having the patience to slog through these sometimes […]
Here’s the scenario of a week ago: China is in the midst of an epidemic of possibly explosive proportions, with fear gripping much of the country (and the world) as a coronavirus spreads and seems to have a pretty high mortality rate, with conspiracy theories abounding and the fear of social unrest as whole cities […]
It’s time for part two of our Annual Review, this week I’m getting to a few of my largest holdings, including some that reported earnings recently and have had a big impact on the market. In the big picture, we’ve seen what impact a surprise event like the viral epidemic in China can cause… and […]
Today I thought I’d answer a reader question about a teaser that’s of particular interest to me — not because it’s particularly heavily marketed, I haven’t even seen the original ad or article our reader cites, but because I like the topic. Here’s the question posted by Irregular bunion132 recently: In a recent piece entitled […]
Happy Friday! I’ve got another reading assignment for you today… the researcher behind the Dunning-Kruger effect posted an interesting article called “We Are All Confident Idiots” a couple years ago that just came to my attention (I think someone posted it on Twitter, but forgot to jot down the original source). Here’s a little excerpt, […]
Another week of fussing about macro issues that we can neither control nor predict, what fun! The Federal Reserve did exactly what the market demanded in cutting rates, but the market was still mad because they failed to promise that they would give us each a pony. President Trump seemed angered by the lack of […]
I’ve been seeing ads for the Motley Fool’s Stock Advisor Canada service recently that catch the eye… mostly because they promise what we all want, the ability to find that one stock that will turn your small investment into a life-changing fortune. They do this by starting with the story of “Forty-dollar Frank” …. “When […]
I’m a little sad not to be in Omaha this weekend for the Berkshire meeting, but I’ll be watching some of the Q&A tomorrow to see how Warren and Charlie are looking and try to get some little nuggets of wisdom from them. The biggest news lately from Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) is that they’re at […]
This teaser solution was originally published on January 22, 2019, when we first saw the ad running. The ads have still been running in recent weeks, and we’re getting questions about it again, so we’re re-posting it here for your information. The ad has not changed, and my article below has not changed, though the […]
It seems we’ve officially entered a period of another “Fed Put” — Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s statements yesterday were widely interpreted to mean that there will be no interest rate hikes this year, or maybe ever again, and that the Fed will stop its “quantitative tightening” in six months or so, leaving a huge and […]
Heydy ho, investing friends! I finally wrap up my Annual Review this week by covering the final three names… and I’ve also got a bunch of other updates to share with you, along with one add-on buy and one brand-new holding for the Real Money Portfolio… enjoy! We’ll start with the completion of the annual […]
I haven’t yet gotten to a few of my largest holdings in our Annual Review, so that’s where I’ll begin today — with the insurance conglomerates Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), Markel (MKL), and Fairfax Financial (FFH.TO, FRFHF), as well as the somewhat related names Fairfax India (FIH-U.TO, FFXDF) and Boston Omaha (BOMN). I should be clear […]
The response was pretty overwhelmingly positive when I started sending out those “Trade Note” emails this week… so I’ll stick with it for a while, at least, and see how this goes. What does that mean? Same day buy/sell notes about my Real Money Portfolio will be sent to the Irregulars going forward, in hopes […]
A fantastic market last week, a terrible market this week… it’s time, once again for another episode of “Turn Off CNBC and Have Some Perspective!” I won’t go into a long screed about long-term investing here, but I thought I’d just share one of my favorite charts — I see someone post something like this […]
“When a Nevada man nicknamed, ‘Forty-dollar Frank’ first purchased his dream vacation home in Tahoe, he gathered his family on the porch for a group hug… and to give thanks to 1 stock.” That’s what we all want, right? The stock pick that changes our lives and makes life better or more fun? And that’s […]
While we wait to see what Berkshire Hathaway’s quarter looked like, how’s the rest of the portfolio holding up? Holy Cow, Starbucks (SBUX)! Haven’t seen that stock take this big of a pop after earnings in a long time, and sentiment seems to have changed so quickly to a “this is a safe capital return […]
Have you been watching what’s going on with the trendy pot stocks lately? Holy crap. This reminds me now of 1999 more than it reminds me of the cryptocurrency bubble of this past winter — these larger marijuana companies, like many of the dot com companies (and unlike most cryptos, of course), are real businesses […]
I keep seeing more and more marijuana teaser ads, and yes, marijuana is an exciting sector right now with legalization in Canada and probably more incremental moves toward legalization of marijuana in the US this next election cycle… but they’re still companies that we have to analyze and understand if we’re to think of these […]
Lots to discuss this week, mostly because several Real Money Portfolio companies reported earnings… and because I added money to two positions this week, and brought a new company into the portfolio. Enjoy! Shopify (SHOP) had reasonable earnings when they came out, but “reasonable” isn’t enough for a high-growth momentum stock that’s trading at almost […]
Since we’re still close to being in the afterglow of the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting, when Warren and Charlie (and now Bill Gates, too) are trotted out on CNBC for hours at a time to share their avuncular wisdom, it shouldn’t be terribly surprising that we’re seeing a few “next Berkshire” pitches again. Here’s a […]
Plenty has happened in the past week or so, as I’ve been on the road (both vacationing in the sun and working in the rain), so what’s up with the Real Money Portfolio? On the news front we’ve gotten a lot of earnings reports since I last wrote to you — Alphabet and Facebook had […]
So… what’s happening this week? I have a few updates on Real Money Portfolio investments, including some updates following earnings releases this week and some notes about my hedge position, as well as some thoughts on a few insurance companies that are catching my eye and making their way onto the watchlist… and I also […]
Annual Review time! Earlier today I covered the changes that were actually made to the portfolio this week, and now I’m starting at the top of that portfolio with insurance stocks, and staying with that theme to also include a few insurance-related stocks that are smaller positions. Three of my top five equity positions are […]
Well, we finish out the week with yet another dramatic performance from the market-dominating tech stocks. Alphabet (GOOG) did better than expected and popped a bit, climbing further through the day, almost as much as the gains Microsoft (MSFT) made on a more dramatic ‘beat’ of expectations (though analysts have always been better at estimating […]
Odd rolls of the dice here at Gumshoe HQ have led to three different Cabot teaser pitches being covered in a relatively short period of time… this one is an insurance stock, and it has generated quite a few questions from the “teaser article” Cabot sent around saying this secret, unnamed stock is the one […]
Weekly escalations in nuclear threats, record-breaking hurricanes… what is it going to take to shake investor sentiment for more than 24 hours? The S&P 500 is ending the week only down about a third of one percent, gold is up less than 2%, this is a market that is reacting to headlines pretty quickly… but […]
Things will be a little quiet here at Stock Gumshoe for the next week or so — I’m off to do my big fundraising ride for Dana-Farber tomorrow, and will then be taking several days off to recuperate next week and spend time with family… I’ll be back with the Friday File next week, but […]
Lots of folks have been asking me about Bitcoin and Ethereum and the other alt-currencies of late, for obvious reasons (well, it’s obvious why folks are curious about it — far less obvious why anyone would seek my wisdom on the subject)… so I’ve got an extended bit of blather about those currencies to share […]
Nicholas Vardy has been pitching this “secret” stock for a few years now — I first noticed his ads along these lines back in 2015, when he called the stock a “Buffett clone” that had beaten Berkshire by 70%, and then looked at it last year when he started using that “greatest wealth compounding machine” […]
I’ve got some notes (mostly brief, I hope) to share about the various quarterly earnings reports that have hit my Real Money Portfolio stocks this week… but I have gotten a pile of reader questions so I wanted to start with a look at Sandstorm Gold (SAND), which announced a pretty big deal earlier in […]
Charles Mizrahi moved over to Angel Publishing a year or so ago, so we’re seeing a lot more ads for his Inevitable Wealth Portfolio. And the latest one pretty well bangs us over the head with the huge promises… including a “make 109 times your money” in the next decade headline, which is a dramatic […]
Hello, merry Gumshoe-ers! I’m going to be on the road next week to attend two conferences, the Grant’s Interest Rate Observer conference in New York mid-week, and the MIT Sloan Conference on Friday — so I’ll be sharing some notes with you with my thoughts on what I hear at those confabs, with fingers crossed […]
A few readers forwarded this email to me recently, though I don’t know how widely it’s being disseminated at the moment… it is an ad for the Motley Fool’s flagship Stock Advisor newsletter, which has probably gotten more coverage in the pages of Stock Gumshoe than any other newsletter (if only because it’s an inexpensive […]
Throughout January these Friday Files are taking on the form of my “Annual Review” of my holdings, which will culminate in a clearer listing of what I own and focus on, including portfolio allocations that I have personally, and a clearer delineation between the stuff I write about because it’s interesting, and the stuff I […]
I’ll write some more detail about this on Friday when I get to our Friday File for the week, but wanted just to note two personal purchases I’ve made. I bought some shares of Franco-Nevada (FNV), a very small position at this point as I wade into it during this fall in the price of […]
The market is down hard over these past couple weeks, thanks to worries about relatively steep valuations, the likelihood of an interest rate hike from the Fed next month and, much more than anything else, a full-on panic about the possibility of a Donald Trump presidency that would, one fears, bring an almost endless stream […]
Charles Mizrahi has moved over to Angel Publishing, so we’re probably going to see a lot more ads for his Inevitable Wealth Portfolio. And the latest one, which I’ve been seeing for a couple weeks, pretty well bangs us over the head with the huge promises… including that “make 109 times your money” bit, which […]
Time for some “Idea of the Month” thoughts for you, dear Irregulars. When you think the investing climate is a little more nerve-wracking than usual, why not go with a master investor who’s also nervous and is preparing for an awful economy? I’ve spoken quite a few times about my fondness for insurance company stocks. […]
This is not a fundamental look at any of these stocks, but just a quick update on my personal portfolio. Like you, I have many priorities in my life… and some of those priorities changed a bit over the last week or two, so we’re considering some real estate transactions that make it important for […]
Quite a few of our readers have sent in questions about this ad over the last day or two, which actually gives me a bit more hope for humanity — after all, this kind of promise of a “wealth compounding machine” should be much more compelling than the high-risk, highly-speculative “Double in a week” ideas […]
I won’t be able to post our regularly-scheduled Friday File for you this week, since I’ll be preparing for my ride this weekend (thanks again to the many of you who have sponsored me!), and Stock Gumshoe will be very quiet next week because I’ll be on vacation with my family (and recuperating, I imagine), […]
Markel hosts a brunch each year following the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting, and has done so for 25 years now — during which time the company has grown considerably, from a small $100 million family-controlled specialty insurance company just starting to explore value investing with their new portfolio manager, Tom Gayner, to a $12 billion […]
That headline is a quote from Charlie Munger from today’s Annual Meeting for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) here in Omaha, and it’s one of the ones that really caught my ear. He was responding to a question about how he and Buffett avoid making big predictive calls about the economy, or assessing the near-term health of […]
I’m going to throw our Idea of the Month out here for you early this time around, because the stock has had some fundamental changes, is trading quite cheaply, and stands a reasonable chance, I think, of posting substantial returns over the next two years (and possibly a dividend in the meantime). And it should […]
Each year I go through all of the stocks that I either own personally or have brought to the attention of the Irregulars (there’s quite a bit of overlap on those lists), and I make sure to update my thoughts and opinion on that stock in an organized and, hopefully, disciplined way — that helps […]
We originally covered a teaser ad very similar to this on October 30, 2013. The ad promising a “Next Berkshire Hathaway” is circulating again and generating more questions from our readers, so I’m re-analyzing it here for your information. The ad has been slightly updated with new numbers over the years, and this article has […]
Before I get into a bunch of updates for companies I follow and/or own, with some good news and some bad news, I do have a quick teaser solution to toss on the fire for you… This one I got late today, and it’s from the Oxford Club’s Dave Fessler — he’s pitching his Oxford […]
Well, today I did what Tradestops told me I should have done a couple months ago: I sold the rest of my Greenlight Re shares. Greenlight Capital Reinsurance (GLRE) is a Caymans reinsurance company Chaired by David Einhorn, the famed hedge fund manager. Its primary reason for being is to give Einhorn a large “captive” […]
Interested in fiber optics? We’ve gotten a few questions from readers about this ad, which has been running for a month or so and teases a “fat pitch” for the year in a stock that’s related to fiber optics installation/expansion. And this is not new — today, dear readers, we’ve got a rerun… but it […]
Maybe the scariest thing I can tell you is, “I’m not selling everything.” The drumbeat in my head continues to be one of worry, I continue to be a little bit surprised at how high stocks are going, and how resilient stocks are. But thankfully, I haven’t been acting on those macro worries — because […]
We’ve been on strange schedules here in Gumshoeland for the last two weeks, and during that time we’ve seen a large number of quarterly reports come through that deserve some attention or comment… as well as a few other notable news items that I feel like I should pay attention to. And, of course, we’ve […]
Here comes the dividend! OK, it’s not that exciting — but, as we’ve talked about quite a bit in the past year, Altius Minerals (ALS.TO, ATUSF) yesterday announced that they will now start paying a dividend. It’s what I would call a “token” dividend, really just a signal of their interest in repaying shareholders for […]
This teaser ad from Nicholas Vardy’s Alpha Investor has been circulating at least since last October, but it appears to be getting more “life” in it these days — or, at least, we’re getting more readers asking about it. The ad hasn’t changed, though the stock has moved up a bit over the last six […]
I’ve got a half dozen notes and comments on companies I own and follow for your Friday File pleasure today, but first I want to toss out a teaser solution for you to chew on… it’s a fun one. The pitch is from Keith Kohl for his new High Yield Energy Report, a newsletter that […]
All of you, dear Irregulars, know that Stock Gumshoe is not a “tip sheet,” and I don’t operate a portfolio for other people to emulate or copy, or even attempt to track the stocks we cover as if they were a portfolio of buys and sells with consistent trading advice… but I do keep a […]
Insurance is one of the fairly large sectors in my personal portfolio, and several of the stocks I talk about often are in that business, so I wanted to take a quick look at those ideas and the state of the industry for you today — then I’ve got another interesting new name to kick […]
I’ve got a big ol’ pile of updates and thoughts about a dozen or so companies to get to, but we’re going to start with a teaser solution today. Paul Mampilly of Agora Financial’s FDA Trader apparently sent around a teaser note to his own subscribers (I say “apparently” because I’ve only seen the cut-and-paste […]
This is just a quick note to let you know of a personal buy in my portfolio — as shares of Third Point Reinsurance (TPRE) dipped today below $14.30 they triggered an incremental buy in my account, so I increased my holdings in TPRE by about 20% today. That doesn’t mean TPRE will go up […]
This week there’s been quite a bit of news in stocks that I follow fairly closely or own or have featured in the past as “Idea of the Month” candidates for the irregulars, so I do have a bit of a teaser campaign to talk to you about (that’s the Casey bit), but I’m going […]
These are my notes and instant reactions from a presentation at the Value Investing Congress, the notes below might contain errors, paraphrases, incorrect quotes, or misinterpretations. Lisa Rapuano presented about the importance of personality and temperament in managing your own investment portfolio. A common trait among successful investors is adherence to a process. I took […]
If I had a dollar for every time someone promised they had found the “next Warren Buffett” I’d be rich! OK, maybe not, but I would have enough money to subscribe to some of these overpromising newsletters … The appeal is obvious — if you hitch your wagon to a rising investing star and get […]
I’ve got a whole passel of things to comment on for you today — I want to update my thoughts on some insurance company stocks that I own and that I touted as beneficiaries of a big switch in the insurance market over the past year or so, check in on a buy and a […]
Yep, I’m writing about another insurance company. And you’ll have this to chew on for a while, I’ll be on vacation for most of next week so we won’t have a Friday File (unless something dramatic pulls me away from the beach) or many new articles of any sort on the site next week. So […]
I have had a couple of limit orders in for more shares of one of my favorite insurers, Markel (MKL) for several weeks now, and one of those orders was tripped this morning when the stock dipped to $507 or so for a brief moment. So I have now increased my Markel position by about […]
We brought you Myron Martin’s latest column for the Irregulars this morning, which included some new ideas in the junior resource stock space — that’s not where I prefer to invest most of the time, but I know a lot of you like those kinds of stocks so hopefully you find his musings to be […]
It’s been an interesting year so far — this week has helped to heal some wounds but my personal portfolio has lagged the market for much of the year, thanks largely to some substantial positions in stocks that were sensitive either to interest rate rises (like Retail Opportunity Investments Corp, ROIC, a favorite REIT) or […]
I have a few thoughts to share with my favorite Irregulars today for our Friday File (we also shared a new article from Doc Gumshoe earlier today if you’re interested). Today we’re looking at a few trades I’ve made this week (four buys and one sell), updating thoughts on a couple companies I’ve covered before, […]
Elliott Gue will be a familiar name to longtime Gumshoe readers — he’s been a fixture in newsletter land for as long as we’ve been around (Stock Gumshoe’s sixth birthday was a couple months ago, thanks very much), and he’s got a new home. He ran the venerable Personal Finance letter for a while and […]
I try to share my opinions with readers like you in a variety of different ways, from my notes on each teaser stock I cover to my more thorough looks at “idea of the month” picks or stocks that I buy personally … but investing is a very quantifiable thing, so even though my investment […]
Today is a fun day for every value investor out there — it’s the day Warren Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders comes out. So for God’s sake, don’t waste too much time with your friendly neighborhood Gumshoe if you haven’t read that one yet. You can get to it here if you’re curious, or check […]
Markel released their earnings last night, and they were, well, typical very good Markel earnings — they actually had an above average year in some ways, with good underwriting and not much catastrophe loss and good increases in sales (written premiums). And now, after crashing to about 1.05X book value after announcing the Alterra acquisition, […]
Everyone in the investing punditry game has to make predictions, so I’ll go out on a limb here and let you know which of the stocks in the Gumshoe universe I’m most excited about for the coming year. I’m also, so you know, going to be revamping how I present and track the “Idea of […]
There was big news from one of my personal holdings this week, and it’s also a stock that I’ve suggested twice to the Irregulars and written about several times over the years so I thought it warranted at least a little reaction … particularly because it drove the shares down precipitously. So I’ve bought more […]
I just added to my holdings in Greenlight RE (GLRE), which was featured as our Idea of the Month recently. Why? Mostly because the stock is a little cheaper, and other insurers are starting to indicate that they’re hurting when it comes to their investment returns — the most recent warning was from a different […]
This won’t shock you, probably, but I bought into the stock of a reinsurance company last week and, after reading up on the company some more and spending time with their filings and reports, I’m going to suggest that you take a look at this one as well. And it doesn’t hurt that, thanks to […]
So many people are asking me about the election results that I feel like I should share some of my opinions — but the short answer is: I can’t help it, stock prices that fall make me want to buy more stock. Stocks fell a bit after the election. And I bought some more today. […]
The second day of the Value Investing Congress resulted in mostly headlines about David Einhorn shorting Chipotle (CWG), since that was the only thing he shared that seemed new and sexy, but he and several other presenters also shared some interesting thoughts that stood out for me about a few of the victims/villains of the […]
This month I have two stocks that are really catching my attention: one that I’ve held for many years and think is one of the most solid and steady companies you can buy, at a nice value right now; and one that caught my eye following a teaser writeup I did a couple weeks back, […]
I’ve spent the past couple weeks going over my updated opinions on all of the past “Idea of the Month” stocks (or at least, those that haven’t already been dropped from coverage over the years), and I promised to put them all in one big list in order of likingness (yes, I know it’s not […]
Today I’m filling in the updated thoughts on all the other stocks that are still in our semi-active universe of “Idea of the Month” picks from past years (ie, we haven’t dropped them for reaching a price target, or being dumb mistakes that have been crushed). These are, as with the rest of the updates […]
Paul Tracy of StreetAuthority has been touting a special report he’s selling called “10 Best Stocks to Hold Forever” — he uses the example of the March 2009 market bottom as a great time to buy dominant, dividend-paying multinational companies … … and says that the recent market weakness again points at the opportunity provided […]
A couple weeks ago I started my annual navel-gazing exercise of looking back at past “idea of the month” stock (and other investment) suggestions — that first look covered the first year or so of these more formalized ideas for the Stock Gumshoe Irregulars, from 2008 to mid-2009, and now we’ll try to catch up. […]
This month I actually did a lot of pondering about which idea rattling around in my head would be most useful to share with my favorite folks, the Stock Gumshoe Irregulars (yes, that’s you!). For a while I was considering an obscure closed end fund that owns a big chunk of a private insurer, but […]
I picked up a few more shares of Markel (MKL) today. The specialty insurer had an awful quarter, announced this morning — big losses, and terrible investment performance. Probably not terribly shocking, since we’re coming off of a couple big storms and the company’s portfolio focus in strongly on value investing, and we all know […]
Now this one sounds exciting, eh? I don’t want to say that the mighty, mighty Gumshoe is a lazy man, but I must admit that the idea of a work week that lasts only ten minutes has some appeal … what the heck are they talking about? It’ll take me longer than ten minutes, but […]
Barron’s had a feature article today on Markel Corp., essentially saying what the Motley Fool teaser emails have been saying for years: that this is a potential successor to Berkshire Hathaway as the next great insurance stock. We’ve seen dozens of stocks touted as the “next Berkshire Hathaway,” of course, but this one has been […]
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