Do we get to all take a breath now? Is FOMO over? The Fear Of Missing Out drove a lot of the market over the past 18 months, particularly as new investors showed up with time and money to burn while they were stuck at home in the pandemic, and found themselves attracted, like generations […]
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Happy New Year! The world is turning to a focus on (maybe) rising interest rates, fear of inflation, and “value” stocks in many ways, or at least so says the perpetual punditry machine that is investment media. Nobody really knows what’s going to happen next month, of course, or for the next year… nobody should […]
Inflation has certainly caught the attention of everyone in the market these days, and whether or not you’re comfortable investing in stocks probably has as much to do with whether you think this 5-7% inflation will continue for more than a few months as it does with your analysis of the economy or the future […]
Let me start with a special welcome to our new Irregulars who came aboard this week, during the still-ongoing Charitable Membership Drive (tell your friends, the campaign goes through December 15!) — thank you for supporting Stock Gumshoe, and I hope you can grow to tolerate, and sometimes even enjoy, my lengthy Friday blatherations. I […]
I don’t know what will happen in the world, but I just looked over my regularly updated Annual Review spreadsheet… and it looks like about a dozen of the stocks I owned as of last February are in my “buy” range right now. Those are in many cases contextual, otherwise we wouldn’t be able to […]
Last weekend I was on an airplane for the first time since March of 2020, thanks to a family wedding, so I got a personal experience with a couple trends that we’re hearing from other people: First, travel is back in a huge way, every flight is completely full, and many airports are even more […]
Let’s start with the bad news this week. Activision Blizzard (ATVI) is a pretty reasonably valued company, valued at about 20X forward earnings now and with a predicted earnings growth rate (by the average analyst) in the 10-15% neighborhood. It’s one of the dominant game publishers in the world, it’s a large company (market cap […]
Happy Friday! We’re coming to you pre-open instead of after the close today, for a little change of pace. I’ve mostly got some relatively optimistic comments to share, including a bunch of small purchases I made as stories shifted a little, so I thought I should start you out with some pessimism from someone else […]
Two of our companies got some good news on Monday, Brown & Brown (BRO) and Match Group (MTCH) will be joining the S&P 500 index, along with Ceridian (CDAY), replacing Unum Group (UNUM), NOV (NOV) and Perrigo (PRGO), which will be bumped down to the MidCap 400 (I don’t own those other four, to be […]
I need to warn you, before I begin, that today might not be the most auspicious day for Gumshoeing or investing. I’m no astrology buff, and enjoy poking fun at the astrology-based investment strategies as much as anyone else (yes, they exist), but the outlook for Leo this morning (my astrological sign) caught my eye […]
Perhaps the most glaring reminder of the current investor mindset is that the new exchange approved by the SEC a couple years ago, the Long Term Stock Exchange (LTSE), designed to help build long-term relationships between companies and their investors, has just now formally gone live with its first two listed companies at launch, Twilio […]
I’m celebrating my birthday tomorrow, so this Friday File comes to you a bit early — call it a Thursday File, I guess. That means I won’t be catching any interesting news that might come out of this evening’s conference calls, as earnings season continues to progress, but I’ll catch up with those next week… […]
I pull together these thoughts for the Friday File throughout the week, and sometimes that means I end up feeling almost bipolar — the market sentiment on Monday was so wildly different than the sentiment this morning that our emotions can get a little whipsawed. Which means, of course, that I should be tuning down […]
It’s pretty clear that the big picture narrative that the stock market cares about most is inflation, and, more importantly, the impact that rising inflation — at least if it’s not “transitory” and instead sticks around — will have on future interest rates and the ongoing spigot of free money that has supported stock prices. […]
The Motley Fool sent out another internal tease in their Investor Digest this week, as a pitch to upsell their readers to Tom Gardner’s Discovery: IPO Trailblazers service ($1,999/yr, no refunds)… so, naturally, we wanna know what it is, right? We’ve covered this IPO Trailblazers newsletter a few times — it was started as one […]
No real buying or selling this week… a peaceful few days of zen-ful “don’t just do something, sit there!” as we head into the holiday weekend. But I do, of course, have some updated thoughts and news items to share. Boston Omaha (BOMN) Boston Omaha’s (BOMN) earnings finally got restated and released, with adjustments being […]
I’ve got a lot of ground today, but I thought I’d start us out with solving a teaser pitch for you… you’ll see why I chose this one in a moment. Marc Lichtenfeld is out with a new pitch for a high-end Oxford Club service he’s launching called Predictive Profits ($1,497 “on sale” from $4,000, […]
This is one of the biggest weeks for earnings in the Real Money Portfolio, so I’ll mostly be checking up on the quarterly updates from some of my larger holdings for you today… but in analyzing quarterly updates and other news, I did find myself drawn to make a few purchases (and one sale). If […]
So… what’s happenin’ this week? I’m still wrapping my head around whether or not I’m interested in building a position in Coinbase (COIN) (or Voyager (VYGR.CX, VYGVF), or other brokerage/exchange companies in the cryptocurrency space), so I’ve been curious to watch the shares of COIN slowly drift down as Bitcoin prices fall from their highs. […]
Blather alert… skip down a ways to the ***** if you want to get right to the specific investments I’m talking about today… The market feels very uncertain, despite the massive stimulus and reopening boost that we all expect to see in the real economy this year, and the doomsayers are clearly out in strength […]
We’re now a year past the beginning of the real full-on panic about the coronavirus, and just a year past the worst drop in the stock market in March of 2020, so I went back to read my stuff from last April to see what I was doing and how I was feeling. Here’s a […]
Markets are people, and people overreact — bull markets get too excited and people pay irrational prices for popular stocks sometimes, and bear markets get too fearful and people sell regardless of company fundamentals and drive prices down to silly levels at other times. We can come up with some assessment of what we think […]
Let’s jump right into it this week… I’ll get our latest tranche of the Annual Review started with one of the smallest companies in the Real Money Portfolio…. Tiptree (TIPT) Buy below 75% of book value if you can be patient, with the 3% dividend yield making the wait a little easier — I expect […]
None of us who speculate or invest in individual stocks in a volatile market are really managing money with the dispassionate application of numbers and analysis, a computer could do most of that better than humans can… no, what we’re mostly managing is our emotions. It’s been a wild week, and it’s often hard to […]
Crazy week, eh? I guess it’s telling that it was really only the most boring positions that stayed in the green during Thursday’s tough sledding. In my portfolio the only little signs of green that day were Five Point Holdings (FPH), which is basically a land bank, Kennedy-Wilson (KW), which is a real estate asset […]
Finally we get a kind of almost bad week! Nasdaq 100 down 1%! Remember your stop losses if you use them, remember your plan for how to handle risk and your promise to yourself to have some discipline, and remember that when everything falls at once, that’s when you get to buy the things you […]
I’ve been falling behind on my Annual Review summations, so we’ll try to get to a bunch of them today for you… starting with what has usually been the largest holding in my portfolio over the past 15 years… Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) — I still consider Berkshire to be an attractive buy at 1.3X book […]
The Motley Fool in recent weeks has been ramping up their teaser pitches on the weekend over the past few weeks, sending quite a few questions our way — most of these have been pitches for their higher-end portfolio services like the various Extreme Opportunities services, and that’s also what has caught our eye this […]
I don’t know what’s going to happen to interest rates, taxes, GDP growth or the stock market, all of which are intertwined, but right now the sentiment expressed by the market seems still to be vaccine-driven optimism about economic recovery from the pandemic, which implies that the renewed push to speed up vaccinations will lead […]
Happy New Year! The fact that this week’s portfolio moves included a little stop loss selling and some nibbles in asset management, insurance and music royalties probably tells you all you need to know about how cautious I feel to start this year… though, as always, I try not to have my personal sentiment drive […]
Every year we call out a “turkey” stock teaser around Thanksgiving time and poke a bit of fun at some terrible investment ideas… … so it seems only fair to highlight a few winners as well, and this week, when we’re getting ready to close down for the holiday, seems a good time to spread […]
As we close in on the end of the year, with the market still rallying so fiercely, I’ve begun to think about risk management a little bit more — I’ve been using the stellar performance of many of my options speculations this year to take profits and “let out the steam.” As I see it, […]
First, a hearty welcome and “thank you” to all the new Irregulars who joined us during the Gumshoe Gives Back campaign this week — we did set a new record, and the money is still rolling in… but you’ve got until midnight tonight to talk the rest of your friends into joining 🙂 And now, […]
We won’t be posting a Friday File next week due to the Thanksgiving holiday, and publishing will be light in general for the next few days for the same reason (though we will, of course, feature our annual Turkey of the Year) … so perhaps you can take some solace in the fact that this […]
Quite a week, no? As expected, my predictions about the election were wrong… and, perhaps more importantly, even anyone making a prediction about how the election returns were going to come out would have probably been wrong in guessing what might happen to the market in the wake of those results. I expected there to […]
So what’s happening this week? We inch closer to the election, and to what I continue to expect will be a relief rally no matter how the results come out — the last time I was this eager for something to just be over was probably when I made the mistake of watching The English […]
Let’s start with the obvious, just to get my weekly brain dump underway for you: We don’t know what the election will hold, or where the market will go from here… I continue to think stocks are pretty expensive, particularly the hottest tech stocks (and I still own a lot of them), but I also […]
Interest rates will be near zero for three more years now, we expect — that’s the basic takeaway from the Federal Reserve’s press conference this week. So what does that mean? In order to make money to meet their future obligations, retirees and pension funds and other investors have to take more risks. That’s ugly […]
Shall we stop for a moment to sing an early “Happy Birthday” for Warren Buffett? He will turn 90 on Sunday. And maybe another surge in Berkshire’s share price will get his fortune up to $90 billion before too long, fingers crossed on that (OK, probably not, he’s giving away his money so quickly that […]
Every once in a while I cite the DALBAR studies, or other indicators and reports that can serve as reminders that each of us is his own worst enemy in the market — and there was another such release of data this week. Vanguard looked at the small subset of its investors who were active […]
It’s been almost three weeks since I last dug into the Real Money Portfolio and shared my updated thoughts… and a lot has been happening, with earnings reports and other big news from a lot of Real Money Portfolio stocks, so buckle in and I’ll try to at least hit the high and low points […]
Vacation time! This is your last Friday File of July, I’ll be off for two weeks to spend time with my family, and Stock Gumshoe will mostly be in hibernation during that time. Yes, that’s the same family I’ve been holed up with 24 hours a day for the past four months… but for the […]
The latest Investorplace pitch for Matt McCall’s Investment Opportunities ($99/yr) promises that we can cash in by “joining the Foldable Phone revolution”… and that sounds both fun and lucrative, so let’s check out the ad and see if the Thinkolator can ID his investment ID for you. The dream of a flexible phone screen has […]
Stock Gumshoe is closed today for the Independence Day holiday, but I did put together a few thoughts last night, and have a couple updates for you on the Real Money Portfolio, so we at least have an abbreviated Friday File for you… Hipgnosis Songs Fund (SONG in London, HPGSF OTC in the US) has […]
Today brings us another “black box” teaser pitch — we see similar themes across investment teases, and the “black box” is popular… a presentation with some pundit holding up a mysterious box sand saying, “thar be gold!” This time around, it’s Hilary Kramer pitching us as she tries to recruit subscribers to her GameChangers service […]
Let’s start with a reminder this week that will lead me into a bit of blatheration (feel free to skip ahead to the first ****, this might veer into sanctimonious lecturing): Don’t double down with your retirement money. Taking extra investing risks might be appropriate for some folks who don’t have enough exposure to equities […]
Sea Ltd (SE) is the stock I spent most of my time writing to you about last week, and they reported strong first quarter earnings on Monday. As expected, they saw some acceleration in users and revenue as the coronavirus began to impact Southeast Asia in March… and some indications that April represented even stronger […]
I’m still able to generate some enthusiasm about specific stocks that I think are appealing enough to buy at these prices… but I find it very hard to be optimistic in a macro sense right now, it really feels to me as though the market is whistling past the graveyard and being far too sanguine […]
We’re now a month past the “bottom” that the market hit on March 23 in the heat of the panic, and although the world is thinking about opening up now and throwing ever more “rescue” money from helicopters, we’re still not all that close to predicting when “back to normal” might hit… and just now […]
Here’s my soothsaying bit for this week, which you should feel free to ignore — like everyone else who’s predicting the future, I’m probably going to be wrong. I don’t think, even now, that we’re pricing in even the bad news that is already almost certain this year… or if we are, we’re pricing in […]
The Motley Fool put together a new push for Tom Gardner’s “no. 1 technology investment” late last week, including yet another “presentation” with Tom Gardner, Eric Bleeker and Tim Beyers, so we’ve gotten quite a few questions… and I also got a few other questions this week about a David Gardner teaser pitch, so we’re […]
I knew to buy like crazy last Friday morning, because people say that I am the SMARTEST INVESTOR IN THE WORLD. Woohoo! Oops, sorry, I forgot that I wasn’t selling myself with hype-filled puffery. That’s obviously not true, I did some buying last week and opened a few new positions that have done well so […]
Thank you for coming back and reading my musings week after week, we here at Stock Gumshoe would not exist if not for the attention and generosity of readers like you. I don’t say it enough, I’m sure, but I really appreciate you being with us… and having the patience to slog through these sometimes […]
It’s been a wild week. The mood was still pretty upbeat on Monday and Tuesday, a little anxiety but a lot of complacency (including mine)… I was in Toronto early this week, with plenty of hand washing and hand sanitizer but no real signs of panic or changes in lifestyle for most folks — the […]
It’s been an unusually active month in the Real Money Portfolio — a couple big sells, several brand new positions, and quite a bit more churn than I usually have. Those transactions have mostly been fairly small, the largest position that I opened or closed was the sale of my sub-2% Facebook position, but that’s […]
We’ve had a lot of questions pop up over the past couple days about the Motley Fool’s “FAZER” stocks, which will apparently be the focus of a “special presentation” they’re making tomorrow morning. The gist of the email, which comes from Eric Bleeker, is pure FOMO — it triggers all the feelings of angst in […]
Let’s start with the bad news… we got quarterly updates this week from Charlotte’s Web (CWEB.TO, CWBHF) and II-VI (IIVI), both stocks I’ve bought fairly recently (IIVI just a few weeks ago, CWEB a few months ago), and those are both in the red. Neither one hit a stop loss yet, but what did we […]
Let’s start with some selling this week, a mix of profit taking and stop-lossing for you… I sold a bit more of my Apple (AAPL) position today, as it tickles the $1 trillion level of market capitalization (and the only company as large is now Microsoft… who would have thought, decades after the rivalry began […]
I feel like I’m waggling back and forth on a strange tightrope, as I’ve been doing for about a year and a half now, and I sum it up kinda like this: I’m quite nervous about the valuations of the overall market and about the massive debt load for both governments and individuals in the […]
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Hi Travis - can you give any more detail on ROKU AND DOCU . I really loss lot of money. all my portfolio is really bad ...
Tech sector overall likely to see further decline. Many multi billion $ money managers like Carl Icahn are warning about...
Tech sector overall likely to see further decline. Many multi billion $ money managers like Carl Icahn are warning about...
I'm confused by your take on Roku, Have you used their product? It's horrible and being replaced as newer and better s...
I have no idea what will happen in the coming months, but will likely hold those for years. I have bought both in recen...
Hi Travis what is going on with DOCU , ROKU ? Do you think they will come back on come month or its 3 to 5 year story...
Good writeup. Have both ROKU and SEA. Been a wild ride. Holding on for the foreseeable future....
CEO Anthony Wood has pretty steadily sold and/or gifted chunks of his ROKU stake for a long time. He still owns 16 mill...
sorry re ROKU...
thank you; this was super informative. Are there any good beaten down, high potential, growth stock (beyond Roku and Doc...
Has anyone made any money with Roku or is this just hype?...
thx, let's see if ROKU manages to hold this $200 level into next year, with the tax loss selling and all. I'll be lookin...
I'll have some more updated thoughts to share tomorrow when I look at the details more closely, I'm sure, and I don't kn...
hi Travis, what's your opinion on ROKU considering this one: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211215005550/en/In...
Hello Travis ....looks like ROKU traded under $194.10 the former 52 week low which should be support however it had alre...
Hello Travis....are you not worried about what appears to be the the tail end of 2nd phase of a major correction with 3...
Hi Travis, great commentary as always. I have held Roku shares for over a year now and am a big fan of the business. Wha...
Did you get any reply's regarding ROKU... Double down or sell some or all?...
With #roku price dropping, do you think it's a good time to add to the position?...
I am very worried about the YouTube dispute. Saw a stat somewhere that 20% of streaming is spent on YT, right behind NFL...
Richly valued stocks can certainly make you nervous. I don't worry about YouTube, that's not a big part of Roku's busin...
Have been a user and fan of Roku since long . Getting nervous about their dispute with alphabet/YouTube and now this ear...
Should we be worried about #Roku down price in the last 2 days? I didn't find their report that discouraging....
I jumped on the sell bandwagon today as well, selling 200 of my 700 shares. Hard to do but bought it at $30 so makes it...
I agree with you. The focused company doing one thing really well often has an advantage, and Roku’s OS is far superi...
I've used Roku for years now. Just recently, I tried an Amazon fire stick. Am I the only one who finds the Roku stick va...
Haven't seen any recent hint dropping on that pitch, but in the past their "cable is dying" teases have been focused on ...
Where do you want it to go? It’s up almost 15% a year over the last five years, better than I expected. My expecta...
You may be interested to know that Greenhaven Road Capital highlights MarketWise in their Q2 newsletter concluding with ...
The stock appears to be ROKU, which has been mentioned MF a number of times. The Vox Media quote at the end is in a ROK...
I use Predictive Financial Services--not cheap but have made $ with them.. They trade alongside--but take too many 100% ...
Fastly Appian? Zoom Elastic? Roku...
Surprisingly huge move, to me it looks like selling because of The Trade Desk's relatively small beat compared ...
It's funny, I don't use any of the streaming services but I bought this "Highsense-Roku TV" just because it was the righ...
Investorplace has a new email thread with a link to a "video" which one can skip, and read the transcript instead. He...
Trade Note: As I mentioned above, I had limit orders in for small additions to my positions in Roku (ROKU) and Goose...
Hi Travis, its been a tough past two weeks and I believe this is just the beginning. Holding long on sizable positions i...
Damn, I had to break this reading down to two different sessions. Great detail. The homework, Jeremy Grantham's podcast...
Trade Note: Two partial stop losses triggered today in the Real Money Portfolio, so I've sold roughly 10-15% of my ho...
Another great update. I've been kicking myself as I've been eyeing Roku for over a year and totally missed the boat whi...
Thanks for the review of data, especially the valuation of Roku compared to Comcast. I have long been considering the st...
I think your spot on with Roku and add that device growth is wildly present even if the home has a cable subscription. M...
Thank you, Travis. I too hold large positions in TTD and ROKU. While my instinct is to run out and buy MGNI, I think ...
Congratulations! Real world experience with the product or service is a great way to identify growth stocks (and build ...
2 of the best stock i got on Rule Breakers was Redfin and Roku. I also found Shopify from them a few years ago but can'...
Hi Travis, I have recently joined this group and wondering what are your thoughts on entry point for ROKU and PAR for a...
Has been a surprisingly good year investment wise. Made some big mistakes like selling TTD in March (urgh)and some othe...
Travis, Just curious to know that I remember from your previous writings. you normally not entering your stop loss orde...
Dear Travis, To sum up 2020, four letters : SPAC! I stick with SPAC warrants, I have booked in so much capital gain. T...
Hi Travis, thanks for your writings. As always. I'm sure that this is the place where I learn the most. I'm 28 and j...
Looks like ROKU has doubled since you sold! All the FAZER stocks have had stunning years....
I agree with Travis Johnson that Roku is a good investment. It has gone up a LOT since September. So I will watch it r...
Thanks... and welcome back! A) I don't like the idea of being "all in" on a stock -- the world is not so binary as th...
Sheesh... in the moments after I published, The Trade Desk reported another ludicrous growth quarter with more "bounce b...
Hi Taylor... sorry, I can't provide individual advice. I can tell you that if you're 20 years old and can really be a "...
It’s a volatile one, to be sure, I think ROKU has had four or five 30-50% declines in its short life as a public compa...
Re ROKU, for what it is worth, I was smelling a correction coming in ROKU and took a Jan145 put position at Sept time fr...
NEWS: According to a CNET article from 12 minutes ago, $ROKU and Peacock just reached a deal!...
I've been in ROKU for the past couple of years and all I can say is that it's been a very bumpy ride. Lots of differing ...
Roku on the TCL television platform is far and away the easiest way to manage our viewing we have ever had. We only have...
Question for you, and this is somewhat rhetorical: What were you attempting to accomplish spending $3k for investment...
I own all the fazer stocks except roku. I recently sold my roku stocks as it's too volatile and didn't see any growth fo...
Interactive Brokers reports ROKU insider purchase of 40,000 shares on 7/13/20 Enjoy your vacation!!!...
Thank you TRAVIS!....YOU INCREASED MY CONFIDENCE IN ROKU ....WATCHING VOLATILITY.....JUST A SMALL INVESTOR HERE. BOB Ha...
Thank you for your Roku analysis. Much better than anything Hillary Kramer could come up with. Some years ago I used t...
Roku, Disney and ESPN being bundled for 10 dollars a month by Comcast I believe . RoKu content is threatening to take my...
I'd be surprised if ROKU ends up being acquired. Strategically, they're well positioned as a licensor to several differ...
That's the first time I covered a ROKU teaser, when the Fool included in in their "FAZER" stocks (and I bought shares) i...
Travis, can you please remind us who pitched ROKU earlier? Kramer is most likely not the first one....
Well good luck, I have True Momentum and that has done really well. Past closed positions like ROKU and TDOC have really...
Well it seems like awhile back they did one and gave out what they called the fazer stocks. Fastly Appian zoom estc and...
Travis, One quick question for you. You somewhat described your strategy and I was wondering if you use trailing stop lo...
The only one I don't have at this time is the R. Roku I believe. It is too rich for my blood at this time. If Z is Zoom...
I don't like Tom's picks for the most part as I have consistently lost on his recommendations, but I do like David's ZM...
I wish I had bought ROKU stock when my daughter and her fiance installed it on our TVs after moving last April. We use C...
Hi there. I've been following for a while, but this is my first post. So hi .... :-) ROKU sounds interesting .....
I'm a Canadian who hasn't cut the cord. And with Rogers Ignite TV there is little need to. With their latest update, my...
Roku as a platform is excellent. It is easy to configure and the technology is brilliant and simple to use. There are so...
Could be. As of now about a third of TVs sold have the Roku operating system built in....
Hi Travis, Very nice analysis. I was checking on reddit and they came up with same names as well. However, the...
I'm not Travis but I am long TSLA, ROKU, NVDA, TTD and OKTA. Looks like a pretty good ETF to me. I do feel your pain of ...
Yes. They are built into about a third of "smart TVs", and the user base grows dramatically in the fourth quarter each ...
Isn't Roku already installed in a vast number new smart TV's being sold? And how does this get them their in on the ad ...
Mr. Nash Actually 4 of them. Fastly Appian zoom and roku...
Excellent point tanglewood. Why would people need a ROKU box when new smart TVs have come bundled with streaming service...
I subscribe to research from Beth Kindig - who also hosts a free blog. Because of her conviction about Roku I bought las...
The sales of ROKU hardware (players and TVs) are essentially done at break-even in order to increase the size of the use...
Hi Investor Clouseau Isn't the long term growth problematic for $ROKU once the old TVs phase out and mostly everybody...
I watched someone from the Motley Fool give a long drawn out pitch on a "little black box". Was assuming, but not sure, ...
I've loved my $ROKU box since I cut the cord a couple years ago. Had't really thought about them as an investment until ...
F is most likely, Fastly. Anyone have a handle on the E? Appian, Roku and Zoom are correct....
Maybe F for Fastly, Z for Zoom and R for Roku. Haven't figured out A or E yet...
Z looks like Zoom (ZM) R is likely Roku Here's a link with thoughts on the others: https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comme...
F - ??? A - Appian (?) Z - Zoom Video E - ??? R - Roku...
I’m guessing Appian, Zoom & Roku are on there....
Apple, Home Depot, Roku, & Walmart...
It’s not a bad idea. I like Eddy. I like Ophir. I think the entire space is still early innings. I like TTD ROKU too....
Probably Roku since they talked about the box under your TV. Roku is getting into TV advertising....
I have been buying gold royalty/streamers and miners ever since I first saw videos of Trump's rallies, on the provable ...